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Given the remarkable visual similarities between TaylorMade’s M1 and M2 drivers, I wanted to perform a head-to-head test of the clubs in their most neutral settings and see what the differences were.

To make it as fair of a test as possible, I hit 10 shots with each driver on Foresight’s GC2 launch monitor with HMT. Both drivers were set to lofts of 9.5 degrees, and were tested with the same shafts (Aldila’s Rogue Tour 70X) of the same length and tipping.

In my video, I monitored ball flight in a closed setting, comparing factors such as strike, club head speed, club path, angle of attack and much more. Watch it below to see me compare the averages, as well as my best hits with each of TaylorMade’s newest drivers.

As it turns out, the drivers are more alike than you may have thought.

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Rick Shiels has been a PGA Golf Professional for more than 10 years and started making YouTube videos on his channel four years ago. He loves creating golf-related content on his YouTube channel that is factual, informative, fun and entertaining. His videos includes golf tips, equipment reviews, on-course videos, news shows and golf lessons. Rick absolutely loves coaching golf, and he has setup his first golf academy in Lytham (UK). Quest Golf Studio is where he calls home, and it has the latest equipment that can help any golfer improve and better understand their golf games. You can book a lesson with Rick here. Rick is also very active on the social media account below, including SnapChat (rickshielspga).

76 Comments

76 Comments

  1. gary

    Mar 24, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    Great video Rick! You’re the man!!

  2. dwc

    Mar 21, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    Rick – really enjoy your videos. I have a question for you though since I watched not only this video but also your review of the M2 by itself and the review of the M1 versus the Cobra King driver. In that review, the M1 beat the Cobra because your average spin numbers were under 2,000 for the M1 versus about 2,500 for the Cobra. But when you reviewed the M1 versus M2, they were both over 2,000. How does that work? Were you using a different shaft in the M1 versus Cobra video?

  3. Mike Barnett

    Mar 21, 2016 at 12:51 pm

    Excellent comparison, well done sir!

  4. 299yards

    Mar 20, 2016 at 5:26 pm

    Always supplying great videos! Looks like some people on replies are looking for an online club fitting from rick through his “reviews and tests” rather than seeing an indepth glimpse of how these clubs perform.

  5. Joe Golfer

    Mar 19, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    I must say, I really enjoyed the video.
    Afterwards, I even subscribed to Rick Shiels YouTube video channel.
    It was interesting to see those results.

  6. just plain bill

    Mar 19, 2016 at 10:19 am

    you know what i find amazing? the internet power i can feel by nitpicking the tiniest thing in a video…ooh, the power of endorphins generated by my negative opinions coursing thru my veins…lol
    meanwhile, the vid was informative and gave me another reason to go back to golfsmith and compare the m2 to what i currently swing, and not in a cage with monitors attached to my b@lls, but on the range where i can see the actual flight and distance and dispersion cuz ive hit a million balls there and know where i hit it, and where id like to hit it…
    id love to play a round with some of the jokers around here…bet they’d shoot 90 and claim they were just having an off day…

  7. moses

    Mar 19, 2016 at 8:54 am

    Great to see RS on here. I watch most of his video reviews. They’re very informative. Great review sir and looking forward to more.

  8. Gary Barber

    Mar 19, 2016 at 12:48 am

    I always enjoy your very informed reviews . You will always get trolls picking holes in your
    findings ..don’t feed them . Cheers from Canada mate you have to get over here to enjoy our some of the beautiful courses we to offer. gb

  9. Chuck D

    Mar 18, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    Great point Adam! I’ve hit both and the M2 just sounds better and the sweet spot is larger as well. Less loss of speed on off center hits. Went with the Kuro stiff shaft at standard length and I’m not
    looking back. I have FINALLY found a driver after all these 23 years of ball striking! Rick, I’m a
    new fan and enjoy your reviews and information tremendously! Keep smashing those drives!!!

  10. Dylan

    Mar 18, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    I’m thinking new vs old. Get ahold of an r510 tp, swap in the rogue and put it up against the M1 430. Make it a real head-to-head test to see not only how much of a difference there is in distance but also in forgiveness and ball speed.

  11. Ryan

    Mar 18, 2016 at 8:51 pm

    I like Ricks reviews. Don’t feed the trolls Rick ! Keep up the good work !

  12. Branson

    Mar 18, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    I can’t recall if I’ve hit both with the same shaft, but i’ve found that i hit the M2 better. It seems like it has a bigger sweet spot and doesn’t lose much distance on just off of center hits. Any data on that?

  13. thomas murphy

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:57 pm

    Watched this last night. I think it is a great compare, the only question (besides the what about he 430cc head) is if the M1 is so adjustable…was in just “middle adjusted” (yes) or was it adjusted for Rick’s “optimum” output…and that amount of adjustment may be greater in other golfers. IE all our results may vary but it is a great view that adjustability can be a great tool for a fitter and for a marketing vehicle…but it doesn’t mean more will be better. Going back to GolfWRX shootout..the M2 performed as well as the M1 but was rated down because it lacked adjustability…so bravo for going to Rick to once again show it is results that matter and M1 == M2

  14. cmyktaylor

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:12 pm

    Request: Same review but with adding the 430 in.

  15. Stefan T.

    Mar 18, 2016 at 11:01 am

    Rick is the best! Glad to see my favorite golf YouTuber teamed with my favorite golf website. Great stuff Rick. Cheers

  16. tony

    Mar 18, 2016 at 10:44 am

    so they are virtually identical in terms of launch, carry, etc but why not also evaluate dispersion???? Wouldn’t the average consumer want to take that into account just as much as launch data???

    • Rick Shiels

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:28 pm

      Hi Tony. Dispersion is always hard to factor into account. That can often be the players adjustment rather than the clubs. Front to back can be measured and I’ll mention that next time

      • SW

        Mar 18, 2016 at 8:22 pm

        Great excuse. Why bother playing golf if it’s not important to hit the target

  17. Weight

    Mar 18, 2016 at 9:23 am

    M1 head is 198 grams
    M2 head is 194 grams

    that might be enough difference to cause the dynamic loft to change

    His swing is inefficient. If he knew how to sling the heavier weight, he should get more out of the M1 with some adjustments.

    • cmyktaylor

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:15 pm

      If Rick, a PGA pro who swings clubs all the time, can’t make the efficiency adjustment, do you really think any of us can? His video was extremely helpful in getting me to think again about the M2. Your comment, not so much.

    • Rick Shiels

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:30 pm

      Very little difference

      • SW

        Mar 18, 2016 at 8:21 pm

        Enough of a difference to cause a 2 swingweight difference!

        • Mark Moser

          Mar 19, 2016 at 12:58 am

          Swing weight does not equal more distance.

          • Innit

            Mar 19, 2016 at 2:50 am

            But it can cause some people to feel that the head is too heavy for them to control it well enough to hit it where they want it and how, which, was the problem that people complained about with the SLDR, innit?

  18. Jim

    Mar 18, 2016 at 7:38 am

    Glad to see Rick S making it to golfWRX. His videos are all pretty informative and he certainly is referenced enough on this site already, along with Mark Crossfield (who should also be added here).

  19. Mat

    Mar 18, 2016 at 6:41 am

    I stopped at “…fair as possible, I hit …”

  20. Mark Bainbridge

    Mar 18, 2016 at 2:32 am

    One way to make this test more professional would be to use two clubs with the same measured loft. To state that because both are set at 9.5 degrees the lofts are thus identical is to ignore manufacturing tolerances; which, in the case of stated loft, can range from +2 to -2 degrees. If the total weight of each club was also given, and they were identical, this would also enhance the credibility of this head-to-head test. Rick Shiels (like Mark Crossfield) is, in my opinion, very typical of UK PGA professionals in that their knowledge of club performance dynamics is somewhat shallow.

    • Rick Shiels

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:33 pm

      Noted mark.

      • Mark Bainbridge

        Mar 18, 2016 at 10:11 pm

        Thank you for reading my comment.

    • Lee

      Mar 18, 2016 at 3:46 pm

      Mr Bainbridge how dare you suggest the tolerance of these American (sorry Chinese) heads can be + or – 2 degrees! Being honest I’m British and Rick is a really good guy, personally I think TM would have supplied pretty accurately measured heads (ala from the tour van) sadly I don’t given any credence to the states as Rick hits it better than us mere mortals.

    • Ryberg

      Mar 18, 2016 at 6:29 pm

      How do you know the tolorences?
      And whats up with the “UK PGA…” Comment. Just try to think before you act!

      • Mark Bainbridge

        Mar 18, 2016 at 10:10 pm

        I know the tolerances (check your spelling) because I have friends in Taiwan who own golf club manufacturing facilities. I live in the UK and have extensive experience of interacting with UK qualified golf professionals. I have also spent time at the PGA headquarters at the Belfry in Sutton Coldfield. I never offer comment unless I know that about which I speak.

        • Mark Moser

          Mar 19, 2016 at 12:57 am

          As a guy who ran a golf shop in downtown SF and was certified by all the manufactures as their top tier fitters the tolerances are not +\-2 degrees. That’s an outrageous and factless statement stated by a competitor. I can state for a fact that at MOST the difference may be 1* at most as we checked the heads in our fitting process. 95% of the heads we tested for our fittings and customer were spot on and the U.K. Comment was completely disrespectful. You don’t know nearly as much as you’d like to believe!!
          That’s a fact.
          Great article and it would be great to test the older 580 series against today’s equipment and compare to see how much the new technology has helped/hindered our games. I have an old Wilson Staff Tour persimmon driver in a dynamic stiff steel shaft that I plyed in high school that I still hit on the driving range when my contact gets a little screwy to help fix my contact. I can say that when you hit it on the screws it is 10-15yds shorter than my XR and 913D3 drivers. I find it does run out more than today’s drivers. Still enjoy throws and my old Nicklaus Golden Bear blades w leather wrap grips I got for my 12th birthday. Oh the great memories. 🙂

    • SirBigSpur

      Mar 29, 2016 at 9:11 am

      Dude, you’re a hack. I’m sure Rick has forgotten more about “club performance dynamics” than you’ll ever know. And why is it you believe UK PGA Professionals are less qualified and less knowledgeable than those in the US? I’m from the US and I still find this statement ridiculous!

  21. Chuck D

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:36 am

    And to think the step brother M2 got no respect in the Golfwrx driver test! How could that be? The M2 is a beast!

    • Adam

      Mar 18, 2016 at 7:59 am

      They said it was because most times the M2 performed as well as the M1, but the M1 got the vote due to adjustability. I bet if you did the same driver test, showed the testers the results and asked which one they’d pay for out of pocket then the M2 would have got a ton of Gold medals and may have even edged out the M1

  22. Willy

    Mar 17, 2016 at 9:57 pm

    +1
    lol
    The OG of YouTube reviews!!!!!

  23. cocheese

    Mar 17, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    Great to see Rick on here! He and Pete are my faves on Youtube!

  24. Chris

    Mar 17, 2016 at 9:11 pm

    This video is old. Just has a WRX logo put in it.

  25. john

    Mar 17, 2016 at 9:10 pm

    crossfields course vlogs are funny, but his club reviews are absolute crap, he’s so jaded – he proved the other day that shafts don’t change the performance FOR HIM, but was also shown that for some golfers it makes a huge difference. But he still believes shafts don’t change anything because FOR HIM they don’t. Rick on the otherhand seems to enjoy the new and shiney golf clubs that manufacturers give him for free and is excited for new gear – even if it always performs the same (as everyone knows, nobody makes bad gear anymore, it’s all the same)

    • Eric

      Mar 18, 2016 at 3:43 pm

      Agree, Mark has become a bitter cartoon, I just can’t even watch him any more!. Some other channels who shall go nameless have also lost the plot and seem to think the channel is about them personally. Rick seems to be doing a great job of keeping his channel fun and interesting, and unlike Toolfield he seems to actually like his viewers ????

      • Willy

        Mar 19, 2016 at 6:14 pm

        crossfield > shiels for me all the way, but I do like Rick’s reviews as well. But for me, crossfield gives me more of a review than Rick does, Rick loves to do the comparisons on distance which I don’t really care about (lofts are not always the same so what does the test prove?). I do like how he has a 13hcp review stuff, those two are great together in their videos.

  26. Leon

    Mar 17, 2016 at 8:46 pm

    So glad to see you on WRX, Rick!

  27. Mr B

    Mar 17, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    Maybe I missed it but nothing about dispersion?

  28. KK

    Mar 17, 2016 at 7:57 pm

    Sorry, no time for a video. Please post the summary and graphs next time. Thank you.

    • Eric

      Mar 18, 2016 at 3:45 pm

      Lol, however apparently plenty of time to write and complain, lol

      • KK

        Mar 18, 2016 at 9:17 pm

        It took 15 sec to write and complain, another 30 sec to follow up and reply. I see the video is 8 min 30 sec. I win.

  29. Other Paul

    Mar 17, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    Way to go Rick. If they take the best youtube person for golf club reviews and get them doing articles on here then we just need Kelvin Miyahira on here for golf instruction and this site will have the best of both worlds!

  30. es

    Mar 17, 2016 at 5:25 pm

    Rick your contributing to golfwrx now? way to go!

  31. HKO

    Mar 17, 2016 at 5:07 pm

    can’t wait to see the review of all M1 to M9 drivers side by side.

  32. cody

    Mar 17, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    cool, i think you could do this test with 5 different drivers with the same shaft and the numbers would be that way. I think equipment has reached a point where they are all neck and neck.

  33. BH

    Mar 17, 2016 at 4:08 pm

    Great stuff, Rick.

  34. Adam

    Mar 17, 2016 at 3:38 pm

    Great video!
    Here’s the big question though… Were you able to make any adjustments on the M1 that significantly increased your performance? Could you dial it in to outperform the M2, specifically by moving the front to back weight?

    • NT

      Mar 17, 2016 at 5:15 pm

      I reckon the M1 would have been dialed in for himself as that is the driver he plays. Only a guess but that is what I would expect from Rick.

    • duh

      Mar 17, 2016 at 5:25 pm

      if you look at the brief article above the video you see this test was done as neutral as possible.

    • NT

      Mar 17, 2016 at 5:32 pm

      I take that back. On second watch he said M1 was set in middle position. In one of his WITB videos he shows his M1 setting. He has fade/draw in middle and the other either all the way forward or all the way back.

    • cmyktaylor

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:20 pm

      Agreed: That would be interesting. Also, note that the wear and tear for his M1 was with the setting all the way back. When he plays the club, he wants the weight in the back.

    • Rick Shiels

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:38 pm

      I normally play this driver in 9.5° head weight in the back to high and weight in the middle for neutral.

  35. Mikec

    Mar 17, 2016 at 3:24 pm

    As always Rick, great job!!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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