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How to train for playing golf in Ireland

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Ireland is a fantastic golfing location with an abundance of great links courses, steeped in history and beauty. For those lucky enough to make the pilgrimage, I have some thoughts and advice. You don’t just turn up; you need to go into training.

Playing in wind and rain

golfirelandwind

Unless you are exceptionally lucky, the odds are that you will play at least some of your golf in strong wind and rain. Get into training by standing in a cold shower in your wet gear and then filling your suit with ice cubes to get a feel for swinging a club while you are in the early stages of hypothermia.

Tight lies

So one of the virtues of links golf are the tight lies. It feels like you are trying to pick the ball off the car park, in fact you should start by trying to play shots off asphalt. The ball doesn’t tend to sit up on the closely cropped ground, but the good news is that the ball runs for miles. Expect to land the ball short of the green and watch it run up. Greens can get pretty firm in the summer, so the chances of holding a green us slim, especially downwind. You are bound to get a few ‘Irish stingers’ where you hit it thin and your hands sting like they have been slapped hard!

Rough

Oh and did I mention the rough? I guess it depends on how the weather has been. A wet Spring and early Summer (the norm) can leave rough like lush green cabbage. A dry and hot summer (more unusual) will leave the rough playing like burned hay. Either way the advice is to keep out of it. And I’m not even going to talk about the gorse and buckthorn! The more it looks like an artist’s pallet the more you have to fear!

Flight it low

Learn how to keep the ball down by playing half shots and punch shots. Keeping the ball close to the ground is a distinct advantage on a windy hard course. Just ask the Texans!

Long-range putting

If there is one piece of advice I can impart, it’s keeping the ball close to the ground around the green. Play your putter where you can. Lob wedges are more of a hindrance than a help off deadpan. You can be 50 yards from the green, and as long as there is no trouble in your way, the best shot choice is a putt. Sure, you may look incompetent, but just watch the locals — especially the older guys. What they lack in power they make up for in guile.

Visualization

One of the biggest issues facing golfers playing links golf for the first time is relativity. With virtually no trees, it’s hard to follow your ball into the rough and dunes. I once played with an American golfer who never watched where his ball went. I got upset quickly, as I spent the whole round guiding him to his ball. Soon enough, I asked him why he didn’t bother looking. His response was he felt lost. The course seemed liked a sea of nothing, and he couldn’t judge depth or distance. It does take a bit of getting used to. So get into practice with a few Where’s Wally books.

Understanding the language

The Irish talk quick and generally tend to use 30 more words than needed to answer a question. Watch episodes of Father Ted, The Field or The Guard to get acquainted. Here’s a few wee expressions to give you a flavor:

  • Pishing it down the day: Some rain is forecast
  • Wee bit gusty: The wind is blowing at gale force
  • Brass monkeys: A little chilly
  • Sweltered: Quite warm
  • Aye: Yes
  • Nah: No
  • Whataboutye: How are you doing?
  • It was some craic: It was a fun time!

Playing with a hangover

golfirelandguinness

One of the things Ireland is known for is its warm hospitality. And with that comes alcohol in the form of Guinness and Whiskey. Both are extremely easy to drink, but the problem is that they tend to lead to late nights followed by shocking hangovers the next morning. Unless you have the willpower of a Saint, the chances are that at least one of your rounds will be played with a pounding head, dizzy spells, nausea and trembling hands. Advil helps, but sometimes the only way to get through it is to sweat it out. The good news? You could train for this in advance to build up tolerance.

Money

You will need two currencies visiting Ireland. The North uses £ sterling, the Queens money. The South uses Euro, as they do across the rest of Europe. Don’t sweat it, as most places will convert and you can always use your card as well.

Pack for every conceivable weather condition

golfirelandweatherchange

Even during the course of a round, you may find yourself getting sunburned at one point and then a few minutes later getting pelted with hailstones. There’s a great expression in Ireland. “If you don’t like the weather, just give it 10 minutes.” This means packing your bag with extra stuff, and it’s worth it. In Ireland, there’s no such thing as bad weather; only the wrong clothes.

Get a caddy

Most of the top courses have caddies. And it’s worth the money for an experienced guide to shepherd you round. You may find them hard to understand and at times a little uncouth, but you’ll enjoy the “craic” and they will make it easier especially when the weather is bad. Like everything in life you get what you pay for and you will get everything from the Old Tom Morris type right through to the young school kid who doesn’t really look old enough to be out on his own or strong enough to lift that behemoth golf bag and its 48 things in it.

Enjoy!

This is a different type of game than the one you are probably used to. You’ll likely experience hitting 170-yard 9 irons downwind and 140-yard 3 woods into par 3s. You’ll suffer horrendous bounces, but you’ll probably also get your fair share of ‘”members nudges.” You’ll watch in horror as the wind catches your putt and sends it off the green 30 yards away, or face a lie in a pothole bunker that will have your chiropractor rubbing his hands in glee. But it’s been played like this for hundreds of years. You’ll get a better feel and understanding for the pros the next time you watch the Open on TV. Just remember one thing to look forward is the reflection that this is how golf was originally meant to be played. No matter how bad it is you will feel a sense of exhilaration having made the journey over!

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Mark Donaghy is a writer and author from Northern Ireland, living in the picturesque seaside town of Portstewart. He is married to Christine and they have three boys. Mark is a "golf nut," and is lucky to be a member of a classic links, Portstewart Golf Club. At college he played for the Irish Universities golf team, and today he still deludes himself that he can play to that standard. He recently released Caddy Attitudes: 'Looping' for the Rich and Famous in New York. It recounts the life experiences of two young Irish lads working as caddies at the prestigious Shinnecock Hills course in the Hamptons. Mark has a unique writing style, with humorous observations of golfers and their caddies, navigating both the golf course and their respective attitudes. Toss in the personal experiences of a virtually broke couple of young men trying to make a few bucks and their adventures in a culture and society somewhat unknown to them... and you have Caddy Attitudes. From scintillating sex in a sand trap to the comparison of societal status with caddy shack status, the book will grab the attention of anyone who plays the game. Caddy Attitudes is available on Amazon/Kindle and to date it has had excellent reviews.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Patrick

    Mar 17, 2016 at 7:44 am

    Good info for my upcoming May trip! Starting playing golf 9 years ago and have been to Ireland many times prior to picking it up. I’ve been dying to play there every since. Playing Lahinch Old Course, Old Course at Ballybunion, Tralee Golf Club, Waterville Golf Links and Old Head. I can only hope and pray for good weather. Need to hit the treadmill hard!

  2. Derek

    Mar 17, 2016 at 12:01 am

    I would also add the value of perfecting a low punch shot/ tiger’s stinger shot. You will find a new found love for your 3 iron.

  3. Jim H

    Mar 14, 2016 at 3:39 pm

    Wonderful article Mark! I’ve been to the “old sod” twice and enjoyed every minute of both trips. You are so right about the changing weather though. It may be just fine in the early morning, perfect for a simple polo shirt and sunscreen, but by the time you make the turn, you’ll wish you had purchased several Irish woolen sweaters to stuff under your rain/wind jacket.

    I believe our last trip was in 2007, and our final four days were spent at the Adare Manor Castle and Golf Resort (about 45 minutes south of the Shannon Airport) over the New Year holiday. The castle was exquisite, the food was exceptional and the golf was perfect…for awhile. On our final day, we were greeted by a chilly grey sky and gusting winds. The range was closed due to the wind, and after we teed off, the temperature began dropping by the minute.

    By the fourth or fifth hole, snow flurries arrived (for those unfamiliar, it seldom snows in Ireland). By the seventh hole, the swirling wind made all shots impossible to gauge for distance, and the snow intensified to the point we couldn’t follow each others drives. The ninth hole was a long Par-5 that looked more like a cross-country ski run, as approximately two inches of snow had accumulated and it continued with relentless abandon. My son lost his ball in the middle of the fairway and I only found mine because it landed in a bunker. They closed the course at the turn and refunded our greens fees.

    Smartly, they took several photos of the old castle next to the course, and to this day they send out “White Christmas” cards from that snow-drenched holiday.

  4. Fran

    Mar 14, 2016 at 2:08 pm

    Humorous but sound advice. I played Portstewart when I was Ireland for a golf trip. Maybe the two best opening holes I’ve ever played. I thought hole 8 was the best hole on our visit.
    Funny thing, when I was there it didn’t rain for the entire week! We had some drizzle on the ride to our hotel. The rest of the week was like May in the US. My face was sunburned and peeled for a week after I returned. I had read all of the weather warnings for travelers and had warm sweaters, wool hats, a complete rainproof outfit with rain gloves. I could have packed my shorts and sunscreen and saved myself the aching back from hauling all my foul weather gear around. I hope everyone enjoys the weather I had but I still wish I would have played one round in typical Irish weather.

    • Mark Donaghy

      Mar 14, 2016 at 3:48 pm

      Glad you enjoyed Portstewart Fran. Like I said the weather is variable, sunburned one minute and frozen the next. Best come prepared!

  5. doesnotno

    Mar 14, 2016 at 10:02 am

    Heh heh, brings back good memories of a few years spent in Portstewart and Portrush, having golf lessons in keeping the bal low dished out by the senior ladies 🙂 There’s nowhere finer.

  6. David

    Mar 13, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    Ermmm don’t the ball sit up on tight lies?

    That apart good to see a reasonably accurate article, I knew it was a fellow Norn Ironer when I saw the Whataboutye!

  7. golfraven

    Mar 13, 2016 at 5:14 pm

    Lived and played golf in Ireland and fully agree. Same would apply for most parts of Scotland. Have your waterproofs with you at any time and a flask with Rusty Nail (also to share) and you will be fine.

  8. don d.

    Mar 13, 2016 at 1:20 am

    Learn how to walk , no cart ballers here. Links golf will wear you down and beat you up. The majority of American golfers who show up do not have a chance of shooting anything close to their handicaps. Their scores are terrible. The comments by golfers are even more laughable than the scores. They blame it on the weather , the course , jet lag , and hangovers. Meanwhile, that 90 year old local is kicking your butt out there.

    • Mat

      Mar 13, 2016 at 6:15 am

      This is the best advice of all. Americans will be most pressed to actually walk 18. It sounds like not a big deal, but it’s a lot harder on Day 2, 3, and 4.

    • SV

      Mar 14, 2016 at 3:05 pm

      Walk. Walk Walk. You are correct, there are no buggies. Also, if you are playing 36 try to schedule the “flatter” course second. If not the second 18 becomes much longer than the card indicates.

    • Mark Donaghy

      Mar 14, 2016 at 3:52 pm

      Don you are correct about the walking. You Americans and your carts! It’s not so bad when you have a caddy, but the dunes and hills can make for a lengthy stroll and if you are not used to that sort of exertion it can catch up on you over a week. Best get on the treadmill in advance and clock up a few hundred miles!

    • Chris

      Mar 22, 2016 at 3:12 pm

      What a ridiculous stereotype. A lot of Americans walk as well.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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