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Opinion & Analysis

The 48 “essential” items every golfer has in their bag

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After a winter of snow and cold, golfers get excited for their emergence from golf hibernation. This thought usually peaks when we get our first glimpse of the hallowed turf at Augusta during the Masters in April. We instantly get that Pavlov’s dog, watering-in-the-mouth desire to play. So off we go to hunt out the clubs from the garage, attic or shed and get ourselves in golf mode. And with that usually comes the annual bag clean-out.

Golfers know the rules enforcing a maximum of 14 clubs in a bag, but as far as I’m aware, there is no rule as to the amount of “stuff” one can carry in his or her bag. The realization that your bag now weighs 80 pounds (and getting it from your car to you cart is a health hazard) makes you think, “Do I really need all this stuff?”

Akin to the contents of a women’s purse, the golf bag is considered personal space. It’s filled with all sorts of goodies, essentials and lucky charms that golfers needs to survive for the few hours they spend on the golf course.

You decide to do a quick stock check and start opening the multiple compartments, slots and pockets on your bag. After 15 minutes of digging around and removing these items, you’re faced with an array of stuff on the floor that could easily start a yard sale. So you resolve to declutter, archiving the non-essential items.

Here’s what you’re likely to encounter:

  1. Enough balls to start your own mini-range, most of which have seen better days.
  2. An assortment of tees, ranging from wooden to plastic to brush in different shapes, sizes and colors, including at least one naked-lady tee.
  3. Ball markers: a selection of coins, as well as plastic and metal discs with sponsors or club motifs. You only ever use that lucky one you’ve had since you were 11.
  4. Seventeen pencils, usually only half of which can write or have lead.
  5. At least one edition of the rules of golf, so badly ripped and dog-eared by successive soakings that it is like an Egyptian relic when you attempt to use it.
  6. Spare change that has accumulated each week of the previous five golfing seasons. Added up, it’s enough to send your kid through college.
  7. Pitch mark repairers in an assortment of designs, colors and materials including that Scotty Cameron one that cost a fortune, but still does exactly the same job.
  8. Those four incompatible wrenches for the multiple drivers you have consumed in the last five years.
  9. A rangefinder with spare batteries.
  10. A waterproof jacket and trousers — taken off, stuffed away and forgotten about after that last soaking you got. They now smell like a vagabond’s crotch.
  11. A windproof top crumpled down to the size of an orange.
  12. Several faded caps, beanies and visors, all displaying mold, sweat stains, or other bodily fluids.
  13. Winter mittens for those “cold” early-morning July tee times.
  14. At least 10 golf gloves, most of which either have holes or rigor mortis-like rigidity, including a right-handed one should you ever face the dilemma of trying a shot left-handed.
  15. Rain gloves that have developed blue mold.
  16. Energy and chocolate bars, most of which passed their expiration date several months ago.
  17. An array of bags of nuts/crackers/trail mix/beef jerky and other consumables.
  18. A bottle opener/cork screw.
  19. Either a banana or apple that has leaked into a black goo at the bottom of the bag.
  20. Eye drops.
  21. A comb that is at least 15 years old.
  22. Sunglasses, possibly two pairs. One wraparound and a pair that you actually use.
  23. Sticking plasters (Band-Aids) for cuts, grazes, blisters and other severe golfing injuries.
  24. Deep Heat/Mentholatum/Tiger Balm or similar witches potions to loosen those weary/arthritic bones.
  25. An assortment of medications ranging from mild pain killers, anti-inflammatories and anti-histamines through to hallucinogens and anti-depressants (for those tougher days on the links).
  26. Insect repellent.
  27. Baby wipes/tissues.
  28. Sun cream (sun screen). In Ireland, it acts as a thermal insulator in cold weather. Long-distance swimmers smear themselves in grease for the same reason.
  29. Lip balm in an assortment of fruit flavours and colors.
  30. A cigar/cigarettes and a lighter, and possibly chewing tobacco.
  31. Several Sharpies in an array of colors, most of which have lost their cap and are dried out.
  32. A small hip flask of hooch, half-filled with some cheap intoxicant, probably whiskey.
  33. At least one half-drunk plastic soda or energy-drink bottle.
  34. Amino Vital packets to add to water, which for some reason are next to a flare gun and compass.
  35. An array of scorecards and yardage books built up over several seasons, which you felt compelled to hold onto.
  36. Membership and visitor tags from at least one top-100 course that you always brag about playing.
  37. An umbrella, the only one the wife hasn’t “borrowed” and failed to return.
  38. An extra pair of socks. Maybe even clean ones!
  39. Alignment rods with matching impact stickers. An indication of how seriously you take your game.
  40. Ball retriever. Note to self: make sure to change the worn-out grip.
  41. Putter headcover that was an essential when you first bought that priceless flat stick, but the magnetic closure is now broken and it keeps falling off. You actually thought you had lost it.
  42. Iron covers (which you justify keeping for travel). Two of them were lost.
  43. Extra spikes and a wrench.
  44. A rain hood.
  45. A club-cleaning wire brush, on which you’ve cut yourself on several times and sworn to get rid of… but never do.
  46. A Swiss Army knife.
  47. A magic sponge for cleaning your ball, which you got as a Christmas present five years ago.
  48. At least one extra towel, “borrowed” from the clubhouse.

Then there’s the several mystery items and things you thought you had lost like the spare car keys. You feel like Indiana Jones recovering this stuff.

And don’t forget you need to leave that last pocket, the valuable’s pocket, with enough space for your wallet, money clip, mobile phone(s), car keys, rings and all those other essential items that you will need to safely store during your round.

Your inner self tells you to chuck half of this crap, but you are conflicted. There may well be an occasion when you need that fifth glove or you lose your 37th ball of the day. Or you will find yourself starving to death or dying of dehydration on the 7th hole.

So you resolve to buy a bigger bag.

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Mark Donaghy is a writer and author from Northern Ireland, living in the picturesque seaside town of Portstewart. He is married to Christine and they have three boys. Mark is a "golf nut," and is lucky to be a member of a classic links, Portstewart Golf Club. At college he played for the Irish Universities golf team, and today he still deludes himself that he can play to that standard. He recently released Caddy Attitudes: 'Looping' for the Rich and Famous in New York. It recounts the life experiences of two young Irish lads working as caddies at the prestigious Shinnecock Hills course in the Hamptons. Mark has a unique writing style, with humorous observations of golfers and their caddies, navigating both the golf course and their respective attitudes. Toss in the personal experiences of a virtually broke couple of young men trying to make a few bucks and their adventures in a culture and society somewhat unknown to them... and you have Caddy Attitudes. From scintillating sex in a sand trap to the comparison of societal status with caddy shack status, the book will grab the attention of anyone who plays the game. Caddy Attitudes is available on Amazon/Kindle and to date it has had excellent reviews.

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. don d.

    Mar 4, 2016 at 7:40 am

    Reminded me of my caddy days. A member I always got stuck with actually counted his balls and gloves and went through his bag after every round. Needless to say he paid minimum for maximum effort.

    • steve

      Mar 4, 2016 at 8:38 am

      Counting his Balls! How much were you tipped

  2. SirShives

    Mar 3, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    I was once paired with a fellow who for the entirety of the round continued to produce beer out of his bag. Not just a couple of cans of beer mind you, more like the entire case. Guy drank from start to finish, loads his clubs back in the car at then end of the round, and heads home. I bet any beers that weren’t drunk on the course didn’t sit around in his bag until his next round.

  3. cb

    Mar 3, 2016 at 3:22 pm

    great list! i lost it when i saw the wire bush one. thats happened too many times to count

  4. ND

    Mar 3, 2016 at 10:19 am

    Am I the only person who walks? No wonder America has an obesity problem.

  5. steve

    Mar 3, 2016 at 9:58 am

    I know a lot of tour pros have this in their bags, weed and a onehitter

    • devilsadvocate

      Mar 5, 2016 at 10:33 am

      Actually you’d be surprised how many do

      • steve

        Mar 6, 2016 at 9:05 am

        I have a friend that’s been a tour caddy for 20 years with various players and he tells me that most do

  6. RoGar

    Mar 2, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    A bag, 13 clubs, 10 tees, 5 balls, 2 gloves, and rangefinders…Period!!!

  7. Mat

    Mar 2, 2016 at 8:01 pm

    What? Who does this?
    Clubs, dozen balls, tees, laser, marker, repair tool. I wear my gamegolf, but it stores in the bag. The bag has a hanging towel and a brush.
    Man, you guys think too much!

    • that guy

      Mar 3, 2016 at 12:07 am

      1 dozen balls is 6 too many… if you need more than that to get through a round god help you

      • Mat

        Mar 3, 2016 at 4:24 am

        I didn’t say I needed them for a round… sometimes a dozen is a good amount for practice. Don’t be *that guy*.

      • Scooter McGavin

        Mar 3, 2016 at 8:36 am

        One dozen balls is 11 too many for real players…

        • Double Mocha Man

          Mar 3, 2016 at 11:09 am

          I like to carry lots of balls so I can toss ’em to the gallery after every putt out.

  8. Navy Mustang

    Mar 2, 2016 at 5:01 pm

    I once had most of the necessities listed. Until I decided to go old school – walk and carry. Goodbye umbrella, ball retriever, and a whole lot of other crap. Just me against the course.

  9. kn

    Mar 2, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    I don’t even have half of this stuff in my bag. Only 21 of the 48. But NO rain gear or “vagabond’s crotch” smell. I have my standards.

  10. Butch

    Mar 2, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    I have all those plus a pair of “reader” glasses and some “golf mints” (motrin)!

  11. Mike Honcho

    Mar 2, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    A comb? Seriously! Even if you even own a comb much less have one in your golf bag, you’d be made so much fun of in our group that by #4 you’d be asking the marshal to give you a ride back to the clubhouse.

  12. Regis

    Mar 2, 2016 at 2:07 pm

    Well Done. One minor change for me. Since I enjoy a cigar on the back nine I carry two (one plus a backup) triple flame cigar lighters. They are filled with premium fuel and are tested before I set out. Nothing ruins a good round or makes a bad round worse than deciding that now is the time for my cigar (or trying to re-light it) and finding out its a no-go, usually in the snottiest weather at a point farthest from the clubhouse.

  13. Abother Lefty

    Mar 2, 2016 at 2:07 pm

    Is there a nail clipper on that swiss army knife

  14. Tim

    Mar 2, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    It is amazing how much stuff accumulates in a golf bag over the course of a season. Once or twice a season I audit my stash. I have to admit I am guilty of hording ball markers. I only use one, but I have a slue of backups should my lucky one come up missing. Also, I must have 10 divot tools, but only use the same one from Crooked Tree. Golfers are very peculiar creatures. A good lot of us actually carry these bags on our backs. We must be gluttons for punishment.

    Tim

  15. John Muir

    Mar 2, 2016 at 1:27 pm

    Excellent, Mark. I have most of the 48 in my bag, #49 an old empty beer can with a little warm beer at the bottom of the can.
    John Muir

  16. John

    Mar 2, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    6 balls, 15-20 tees, glove, 2 ball markers and one pitch mark tool is all I carry… I keep it very simple!

    • Scott

      Mar 2, 2016 at 3:44 pm

      so you are the one…

    • mhendon

      Mar 2, 2016 at 5:31 pm

      No he’s not the only one. Add a range finder and subtract the two ball markers. My ball marker is part of the pitch mark tool.

    • Mat

      Mar 2, 2016 at 8:02 pm

      Definitely not the only one. Atta boy.

    • that guy the caddie

      Mar 3, 2016 at 12:08 am

      amen. you must have been under the strap at some point.

  17. Geo

    Mar 2, 2016 at 12:32 pm

    Love this I have at least 20% of this stuff and now know what to collect and gather over my next 10 years.

  18. Walker

    Mar 2, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    Just get a mackenzie golf bag, you wont have any pockets to put all this stuff, nor will you have any money left to buy anything to put in the bag.

  19. Double Mocha Man

    Mar 2, 2016 at 11:31 am

    Funny stuff! Anyone who has a bag like this definitely needs to use a power cart. I outfit my bag light and lean for carrying or rolling. The only excess in my bag is that golf ball emblazoned with the word “Dad” that my son gave to me for Father’s Day 10 years ago. Every time I am lucky enough to play a Top 100 golf course I use it for one hole, for good luck. Currently is has Bandon Dunes, Pebble Beach and Chambers Bay DNA smeared all over it.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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