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Hit it like a girl for more distance

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This story was selected as one of the 15 best GolfWRX stories of 2015!

Did you know that your club speed is much more likely to resemble that of an LPGA Tour player than a PGA Tour player? Sure all golfers want to swing like Rory, Tiger, Jordan or Jason, but due to differences in swing speed that may not be optimal for you. In fact, less than 2 percent of all amateur golfers, regardless of handicap, have a driver club speed that is equal to or greater than the PGA Tour average of 113 mph.

So… what can we learn from LPGA Tour players that can help all golfers perform better? EFFICIENCY. As a whole, LPGA Tour players are the most efficient group of golfers on the planet. This article will look specifically at the driver and how you can attain greater distance.

First, see the following chart, which shows the distribution of driver club speed across all male amateur golfers, regardless of handicap. Over 50 percent of all male golfers have a driver club speed between 87 mph and 103 mph.

GolfWRX_Chart

Next, we will overlay the ranges of the PGA Tour and LPGA Tour players onto that same chart. It is easy to see that the male golfing population is much more similar to the LPGA Tour than the PGA Tour in swing speed. In fact, the club speeds seen on the LPGA Tour represent more than two-thirds of the male golfing population.

GolfWRX_Chart

Now let’s look at what makes the LPGA Tour players so efficient. The first thing to notice is smash factor. Smash factor represents how efficiently club speed is turned into ball speed. And more ball speed means more distance. Both the LPGA Tour and PGA Tour players average a 1.49 smash factor. That is very efficient.

On the other hand, the average smash factor for all male amateurs is 1.41. Even though 1.49 versus 1.41 may not sound like a big difference, it equates to 15 yards for someone with a club speed of 94 mph, which is the average club speed for both the LPGA Tour and the male amateur. The following chart shows how much distance is lost versus the average LPGA Tour player based only on smash factor.

Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 4.05.51 PM

The other main reason for LPGA players’ efficiency is their attack angle. Club speed and attack angle dictate a golfer’s potential distance with the driver. TrackMan first started collecting data on the range at PGA and LPGA Tour events in 2007. During that year, we worked with more than 100 players on both the men’s and women’s side. It quickly became apparent that the women did something that most men did not — they hit up on the ball with the driver. The LPGA Tour averaged a positive attack angle with their driver, whereas the PGA Tour averaged a negative attack angle. That holds true still to this day.

How does attack angle translate into potential distance? We will use a club speed of 94 mph again to illustrate the differences. The following chart shows the optimal launch, spin, and carry based on the club speed and attack angle.

Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 4.06.41 PM

The average attack angle on the LPGA Tour is +2 degrees and the average for the male amateur is -2 degrees. This difference in attack angle means the LPGA player can carry the ball 9 yards farther than the male amateur if both players create the optimal launch and spin. Also, keep in mind that this 9-yard difference is in addition to the 15-yard difference that we saw earlier due to smash factor.

Now, neither group has the perfect launch and spin, but let’s look at what each group does produce on average.

Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 4.07.25 PM

The average LPGA player generates nearly ideal spin, but launches it slightly low side for optimizing carry. This combination reduces maximum carry slightly, but allows them to create a little more bounce and roll. On the other hand, the male amateur has a good launch angle but produces more spin than desired. This combination will slightly reduce the carry, as well as the bounce and roll.

It’s important to note that having a positive attack angle and high smash factor doesn’t automatically mean you will maximize distance. An efficient impact position as well as a properly fitted club are critical pieces of the equation. That is why it is important to find a Certified TrackMan Professional who can help you achieve your optimal values.

To review:

  • Create a positive attack angle to maximize potential distance.
  • Generate a high smash factor to create maximum ball speed.
  • Produce an impact position that delivers the club efficiently to the golf ball.
  • Get fit for a driver that allows you to take full advantage of your swing.

Don’t be afraid to hit like a girl because that is the standard that we should all try to achieve!

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Justin Padjen, business development for TrackMan, has worked with more than 200 PGA and LPGA Tour professionals, including multiple world No. 1's. His knowledge of the science of golf has led to audiences with the top players, coaches, universities, and manufacturers in the world. Justin studied Electrical Engineering at North Carolina State University before earning a Master’s in Sports Leadership at Virginia Commonwealth University. His current focus is TrackMan University, which is revolutionizing the way golf is taught and understood.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. devilsadvocate

    Sep 19, 2015 at 10:44 am

    Low points for the comments today… Great article and good points made….

  2. devilsadvocate

    Sep 19, 2015 at 10:11 am

    Wow low points for the comments section today… Upward attack angle favors distance over accuracy which is why lpga tour players tend to hit up on the tee ball. Downward attack angle puts more backspin and less sidespin which favors accuracy at the cost of distance which is why MOST pga tour players hit down on it, read MOST not ALL… Some pga tour players do hit up on it for more distance ala spieth bubba j Thomas etc

  3. marcel

    Sep 16, 2015 at 9:22 pm

    great article. i have always known I am an average lady golfer 😉

  4. Larry

    Sep 16, 2015 at 1:37 pm

    Not sure what the author is trying to say. Other than club head speed what are the key differences between page and lpga players? Are they doing something different technique wise? If they are its not clear to me what it is.

    • devilsadvocate

      Sep 19, 2015 at 9:55 am

      Lol the entire article is dedicated to answering that question

    • devilsadvocate

      Sep 19, 2015 at 4:16 pm

      Technique – play the ball more forward, tee it higher, stay behind the ball on your downswing as much as you can and swing out to the right more to counter gear effect with your new upward attack angle… Remember that with the ball teed higher you should address the ball towards the toe if you ground your driver before you swing because it is slightly closer to you than it would be if it were on the ground…. Enjoy your added carry and roll

  5. other paul

    Sep 15, 2015 at 1:35 pm

    I will stick with hitting it like a man. Far and offline (Almost got the hook beat by turning it in to a push draw)And hitting down a little. Nothing screams hack like hitting the ground before the ball when its on a tee which is what happens when I try to swing up at it. Swinging level is much easier.

    • Cliff

      Sep 22, 2015 at 1:08 pm

      You can’t beat a hook with a push draw! Good try tho lol!

  6. jakeanderson

    Sep 15, 2015 at 4:56 am

    i am sorry, but i find this article terribly misleading. while it is true that swing speed-wise the average male golfer correlates more with the average lpga-professional, the differences in flexibility and strenght must not be understated. a great many amateurs swing the way they do, because they lack flexibilty. in contrast lpga-players are extremely flexibel, even compared with pga-tour players. therefore the best role-models for average players are champions tour players, because they share the same physical limitations.

    • Jack

      Sep 16, 2015 at 12:05 am

      If amateur golfers could really swing like LPGA players, then they’d all be scoring below part, even from the white tees. It’s not even close. But I get what the article is trying to say. We should try to emulate the technically proficient swings of the LPGA players. We’re more likely to match their swing speed the the PGA guys. Most guys like to say they have 120mph swings etc, but the truth is most swing in the 80’s and can at most hit 90’s with some training.

      And the key point that’s lost is that their swing is a lot better than any of ours. That’s what we need to improve on.

  7. Dpavs

    Sep 14, 2015 at 10:01 pm

    Good article. This is something that most PGA teachers I have spoken to have said for a while now… most amateurs should be watching and emulating the LPGA, not the PGA players because characteristically they are closer to the gals than the guys.

    Also anyone who thought this was sexist at all… all I can say is good grief… there’s a line that is simply not acceptable and should not be crossed we all know that… but maybe its high time to get off those all too too politically correct soap boxes and lighten up already.

  8. Philip

    Sep 14, 2015 at 9:26 pm

    Don’t you think the title and context of the article is misleading? You are obviously not telling average male golfers to emulate the swings of young “way more flexible” women with different body structures – that’s like asking an older male elephant to gallop like a young female gazelle – traction anyone? As far as the four points you conclude with, they are also used by PGA Tour golfers – nothing to do with swinging like a “girl”? Besides, a great swing is a great swing due to technique – not sex! Based on trackman data PGA players smash factors from as low as 1.424 to as high as 1.539 and launch angles ranging from -2 to almost 20 degrees. I think the average male golfer would be better off studying PGA players – not just watching them play – and consider trying out technique that they notice quite a few different type of players doing in a similar way, as there is likely a very good reason why.

    • Nomnom

      Sep 15, 2015 at 3:12 am

      I’d say swing like Bernhard Langer for the rest of your life

    • other paul

      Sep 15, 2015 at 1:29 pm

      Good points. Why swing like an average player on tour though? Why not try and learn the swings of the elite players instead?

      • Philip

        Sep 15, 2015 at 2:41 pm

        Agree – since I do not have a TV I use PGA Tour Live as my source and so far I have improved my grip for my swing, my driver, my putting setup and how I approach playing a course from studying the best players shown to-date as they play the entire round. I find marquee coverage a great learning aid.

  9. Bryan P

    Sep 14, 2015 at 2:32 pm

    “You swing like a girl!” *Sandlot voice*

    …”Thanks!”

  10. KCCO

    Sep 14, 2015 at 1:20 pm

    I’ve always thought and was told I was supposed to hit slightly up on my driver, and have had success. I really don’t know, so that’s why I’m asking. Isn’t that the purpose of having ball on a tee and more forward in your stance? I always thought the idea was to catch the ball on a slight up swing. And I though it was mentioned, but I’ve seen my smash factor all most max out by shortening my driver, and have repetitive or consistent ball marks on the face of my driver. I don’t have exact numbers to prove, but can say 8 outta 10 balls are on exact same location of driver, where I would be lucky to acheive that maybe 5-6 outta 10 on the correct spot of my driver, only by visual and smash factor numbers as proof, but that 3/4 inch shorter driver shaft may have lost a few feet, but higher smash, more consistent sweet spot equals better off the tee for me. Just my .02

  11. Nevin

    Sep 14, 2015 at 12:10 pm

    Very good article. I think that many amateur male golfers would play better by emulating the tempo and swings of the LPGA pros. I know it helps my game more when I watch the LPGA.

  12. Brian

    Sep 14, 2015 at 12:09 pm

    This is EXACTLY why I swing the way I do. I’ve spent so much time this year getting tempo down so that I don’t need to swing hard. Good, solid contact and a shot in the middle of the fairway is much more important to me than an extra ten yards. I’ll just go a club up and be on in two, thanks.

    I left my swing video in the forums the other day and someone said it had some characteristics of Lexi Thompson’s, so I went and watched some analysis of her swing. I have to say that I’m okay with that.

  13. Dudley Rogers

    Sep 14, 2015 at 11:02 am

    What a sexist article! I guess since most of your readers are males, you can get away with saying something like this. Have you not seen the #LikeAGirl campaign that Always is pushing? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjJQBjWYDTs

  14. mlecuni

    Sep 14, 2015 at 10:58 am

    Hey Justin, very nice article.
    Do you think, we can learn about the shaft/flex/fcm, they use on LPGA to improve too ?

    Thanks !

  15. LK

    Sep 14, 2015 at 10:20 am

    I don’t think anyone would argue that LPGA players are as strong as the average man so I hope people use this as reinforcement of the fact that it is not muscle or effort alone that determines how far you hit the ball. The big difference is that most average golfers really have no idea how to efficiently use their bodies and gravity in the golf swing. I have never understood why so many men refuse to give up the “hack” swing and actually try to retrain their bodies to be efficient. The arms and hands are not the motor of the golf swing.

  16. Tom Stickney II

    Sep 14, 2015 at 10:16 am

    Fantastic article.

  17. AllBOdoesisgolf

    Sep 14, 2015 at 10:13 am

    the hypocrisy of when it’s ok to use certain phrases is astounding…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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