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Stites: The greatest golfer I’ve ever known

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Sorry gang, but I need a break from the Hogan nine. Can we call this a rain delay, or maybe an extra hole? My mind is on something else right now.

The greatest golfer I’ve ever known has been ill and is struggling. He is not Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus or even Tiger Woods, nor is he one of the 200+ touring pros I’ve known and worked with over the years. He didn’t even play on a professional tour, but what a game he had. I’ve never seen anyone greater.

Like many of my stories, he is an old timer. He was born in 1929. Some folks call him Junior. He had six brothers and three sisters (most gone now), but Junior is the only golfer who came from his country family.

This is no excuse for breaking the law, but times were tough in the 30s. So Junior’s father and two of his uncles made moonshine in the Oklahoma Ozarks. They called it Three Brother’s Whiskey. They even had their own logo and labels for the bottles.

Junior’s mother had a special petticoat she wore under her long dress that had pockets for the pints of whiskey to sell. Deep in the hills, the brothers made whiskey during the week, and then would travel on the weekends with Junior’s mother to the streets of Fort Smith, Ark., to sell it. The cops wouldn’t frisk women in those days, so if Junior’s mother would stand still with the whiskey in the petticoat pockets, the inventory was safe until the boys had made a sale.

Junior’s mother would then deliver the goods from under her dress when the cops weren’t looking. When the petticoat was depleted, she would go back to the truck to restock. In the 40s and 50s, Junior’s father would become a lawman. This is all a true story, and I’m not kidding. The moonshiner turned deputy sheriff was very colorful and very popular.

Junior didn’t help in the moonshine business, but he did grow up plowing behind mules and doing tough farm work. During World War II, the family moved to Point Richmond, Calif. Junior’s older brother went off to war, but Junior was a few years too young to fight. So at the age of 14, he got a job alongside his older sisters, as well as thousands of women, old men and teenage boys building warships at the Kaiser Shipyards. Most all of the fighting age healthy men were off to war.

Junior became a first-class welder early in his teenage years, making warships during the day and attending high school at night. After the war, his family went back to the hills of Oklahoma, but another war was coming and Junior would be of prime age for that one.

When the Korean War heated up, Junior got his notice from the local draft board. That war would be his introduction to the wonderful game of golf.

As a new infantry solider, Junior boarded a train to California. The train was to take him to the troop ship convoy bound for Korea and the shooting war. A major rain delay (one different than we experience in golf) put the trains off schedule and canceled several connections. When he finally arrived and reported in California, he assumed the army would have another way for him to get over to the fight. While waiting there, a first sergeant learned he had been a shipyard welder and had him transferred to Panama to work salvage and underwater welding in the structures and ships of the Canal. They said it was easier to teach a welder to dive than to teach a diver to weld. So at 22 years old, Junior then was off to Panama, where he later told me he found mosquitoes and the Fort Davis golf course. Before this assignment to Panama, he had never been near a golf club or golf ball.

Life must have been boring at times there, so Junior checked out that golf thing. He was a great athlete — I heard he once scored seven touchdowns in one high school football game in ’47 — and he quickly learned and loved the game of golf. He played as much as possible while in Panama after a few soldiers took him to the course for the first time. He said he may have never found golf without the war, the Army and his special army golfing buddy for life, Jack. I’m so glad those two became friends, and I’m so glad Junior found golf… for so many reasons.

After Panama, Junior brought his new game and clubs back to Oklahoma and the family farm. The only real golf course in the county was a not-so-groomed 9-holer, but Junior didn’t mind. He stayed connected with his new game as he worked on the rest of his life. The G.I. Bill, college, a new family and his love of learning led him to become a math teacher and then later a high school principal. He taught and led more than 4,000 kids over the years.

After his school years, he won a seat in the state legislature and became a truly honest politician. There are not many of those. Junior’s life as a true servant made him the most revered and loved man in his county. Some even have called him “our George Bailey” after the beloved Jimmy Stewart character in Frank Capra’s Christmas movie, “It’s a Wonderful Life.” And all the while the rest of life was happening, Junior kept smacking his Spalding’s and playing the county’s little 9-hole course.

Most of Junior’s real golf was played on that country 9-holer, but for one or two weeks each year Junior played a very special place. When the time was just right, he would cut hay on a small section of his family ranch. After the bales were hauled off, the lush Bermuda grass meadow was perfect farm turf. Isn’t that how golf got started in Scotland… goats and sheep eating off the fairways along the seaside links?

Junior would set up his farm holes and tee boxes. Until the grass, the mama cows and their dung piles took over again, the hay meadow was his own private “country” club. Only very special people were invited to play there. That cow pasture is where I first saw Junior hit a golf shot. I lived very nearby, and one day he invited me to come out to the hay meadow and play. Junior was so long, and I was mesmerized when he hit the ball. How did he do that? Wow! I’ve got to do that just like him.

Junior helped me grip the club and gave me my first few lessons. A few weeks later, I joined him when he played the real 9-holer. He was very patient, and wanted me to know what he knew. He was my hero. I was young and absorbing everything. Later, when the cows came back into the meadow, I learned the meaning of a really bad lie.

Junior had an Arnold Palmer-style, herky-jerky finish, so I tried to do the same for years. Only after I saw Tom Purtzer and Fred Couples years later did I appreciate a smooth, fluid finish. Until then, I thought Junior’s violent “Palmer The King of the Army” form was the best. Maybe it still is, but my shoulder now likes something closer to Purtzer.

Back to Junior.

Because I grew up and lived so close to that pasture, I was blessed to learn the first part of my game there from him. That hay pasture was where I first saw a glimpse of the game. Life has never been the same since, because that’s when I fell in love with golf. That love and the many rounds that followed would lead me to seek a job with Mr. Hogan, which made Junior proud. Ben Hogan was an army veteran, too, and served during WWII. Junior had been an avid fan of Hogan, and vividly remembered the ‘53 slam. He was happy that one of his students was working for Bantam Ben.

Junior came to visit me several times in Fort Worth. He loved the factory and Ben Hogan’s Shady Oaks. I showed him Hogan’s locker, and the place I first met Mr. Hogan, too. Junior beamed.

These last few weeks have been tough for Junior. It is really hard to watch such a strong man struggle and grind so hard. I’ve never known a man or golfer who has changed more lives for the better than my hero, Junior.

The really old timers who called him Junior are mostly gone now. Most people today call him J.T. My brother and I call him Daddy. My kids call him Papa. He is the greatest golfer and man I have ever known. No one is even close. His steady, guiding hands and humongous giving heart have guided me and many in life. That guidance and his long ball swing I watched way back then in that pasture sent me in search of other life courses and people that love the game too. That has made all the difference.

Thanks Junior. You gave me the game and so, so, so much more!

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Tom Stites has spent more than 30 years working in the golf industry. In that time, he has been awarded more than 200 golf-related patents, and has designed and engineered more than 300 golf products that have been sold worldwide. As part of his job, he had the opportunity to work with hundreds of touring professionals and developed clubs that have been used to win all four of golf's major championships (several times), as well as 200+ PGA Tour events. Stites got his golf industry start at the Ben Hogan Company in 1986, where Ben Hogan and his personal master club builder Gene Sheeley trained the young engineer in club design. Tom went on to start his own golf club equipment engineering company in 1993 in Fort Worth, Texas, which he sold to Nike Inc. in 2000. The facility grew and became known as "The Oven," and Stites led the design and engineering teams there for 12 years as the Director of Product Development. Stites, 59, is a proud veteran of the United States Air Force. He is now semi-retired, but continues his work as an innovation, business, engineering and design consultant. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of the Ben Hogan Foundation, a 501C foundation that works to preserve the legacy and memory of the late, great Ben Hogan.

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Hawks

    Sep 23, 2015 at 8:44 am

    Tom, you are quickly becoming my favorite writer to read on WRX. I look forward to the Hogan stories and was pleased reading your latest. It is a great story, and I’m glad he avoided a war that allowed him to be such a great teacher of life and golf. I hope the best for your dad.

    • Gorden

      Oct 3, 2015 at 2:01 am

      Tom is very good, but sure miss Barnie Adams stories about the ins and outs of the OEM golf companies..

  2. Ryan

    Sep 22, 2015 at 7:16 pm

    What’s Junior’s real name ? Would love to read more about him. I think there was a Golf Digest article about him a while back.

  3. Zachary jurich

    Sep 17, 2015 at 1:35 am

    Inspiring is really the only way to put this. He sounds a lot like my dad & I can’t imagine that loss. I hope he’s painless soon and thank you for sharing his story, it’s greatly appreciated.

  4. Sam

    Sep 15, 2015 at 12:12 pm

    As of this comment 12 people are heartless evil people hiding behind the anonymity of the internet. Please show me the person that would sit through a story of someone talking about the life story of their ailing dad and would say “meh, that sucked” to their face.

    Tom my best wishes go out to you and your family.

    • tom stites

      Sep 15, 2015 at 4:56 pm

      Thanks Sam. I appreciate you and the call out. This WRX group (when considered as a whole) is a wonderful caring and great community. We share a love for the game and for golfers. Wouldn’t trade you guys and gals for anything.

    • HG Wells

      Sep 16, 2015 at 2:39 pm

      Indeed, 12 miserable souls who clicked that button to get just a tickle of self-satisfaction out of their wretched day. For some reason these pitiful creatures do seem to love the internet, and always seem to pop up like roaches wherever something positive or inspiring is being said!

  5. TinWhistle

    Sep 13, 2015 at 9:48 am

    Best wishes Mr Stites. My brother and I had our dad join us last week, as he has for the past 10 years, at my member guest event. He’s slowing down but we’re blessed he can still join us on the links.

  6. Dennis Clark

    Sep 12, 2015 at 6:56 pm

  7. Karen Hiser

    Sep 12, 2015 at 6:30 pm

    Tommy, Your dad has always had a special place in my heart. He and my mom (Ruth Knight), butted heads a few times at school, but it was always in the best interest of the kids. They had great respect for each other, and spent lots of time together outside of SHS as personal friends along with your sweet mom. Thank you for a side of “Junior” that most of us never saw. Enjoy your stories. Will keep you and Kirk and your dad in my prayers.

  8. michael

    Sep 12, 2015 at 1:24 am

    My father and grandfather both introduced me to the game of golf. I was very lucky to have them both teach me the game. I lost my grandfather before I finished high school and lost my father 4 years ago. I still remember the lessons that he taught me not just golf but about life too. I always have them with me when I play.

  9. Sean

    Sep 11, 2015 at 5:25 pm

    You are a lucky man.

  10. Steve Grimmer

    Sep 11, 2015 at 12:36 pm

    I lost my “Junior” 11 years ago; he taught me the game, he taught me about life, and he showed me how to die. I try, and fail, to be him every day. Thanks for sharing your story, Tom. You and your father are in my thoughts and prayers.

  11. Ryan

    Sep 11, 2015 at 12:21 pm

    Great story! Good twist at the end.. honestly didn’t see that coming. All the best to you and your family Tom!

  12. Gordy

    Sep 10, 2015 at 4:22 pm

    Great article, my father is no longer with us, he passed away when I was 21(im 28 now). He taught me the love for the game and he’s the greatest golfer I ever saw as well.

  13. Gordy

    Sep 10, 2015 at 4:20 pm

    Great article, my father is no longer with us, passed away when I was 21..i am 28 now. But he taught me the game, taught me the love for the game. He’s the greatest golfer I ever saw as well.

  14. Mike

    Sep 10, 2015 at 8:43 am

    awesome story……very well put together. Your very luckly to have found Junior in your life! most are not that lucky!

  15. Philip

    Sep 9, 2015 at 11:19 pm

    Very special moments – thanks for sharing and all the best to Junior.

  16. Tim McCarty

    Sep 9, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    Praying for Junior and your family, Tom. Thanks for sharing.

  17. Christestrogen

    Sep 9, 2015 at 10:55 am

    “Leader of the Band” by Dan fogelberg should auto load with this article…
    Excellent story….junior sounds awesome.

  18. Tim Timpsy

    Sep 9, 2015 at 10:52 am

    Wow…lump…throat…

    • Ian

      Sep 9, 2015 at 11:13 am

      Agreed… Nobody would dare vote “Shank”

  19. Glen Koeske

    Sep 9, 2015 at 10:08 am

    Now that’s a great “golf” story. Tom, thanks so much for your stories on Ben Hogan – and especially for this one that’s not. I hope Junior all the best and of course, “get well soon.” All GolfWrxers will be thinking and praying for him.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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