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The stats behind Phil Mickelson’s switch to Andrew Getson

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It was big news in the golf instruction industry when Phil Mickelson decided to part ways with long-time coach Butch Harmon and hired Andrew Getson to take over. Mickelson was not exactly performing poorly by normal Tour standards, as he made 16 out of 19 cuts and finished 48th in Adjusted Scoring Average for the season. But Mickelson’s seasons are judged by victories and performance in the majors, and Phil may have felt that there was a need to change after two winless seasons.

As a golf statistician, I wanted to look at Phil’s performance from this past season along with his performance in his most recent “big” season, 2013, when he won the British Open, finished 12th in Adjusted Scoring Average and earned nearly $5.5 million. I would assume that performance in 2013 is something that Phil wants to get back to.

Mickelson_instructor_switch_chart_1-1

While the two most important metrics in the chart above are Par-4 Scoring Average and Bogey Rate, it’s always good to look at all of the metrics to help paint a more clear picture of what is going on with the golfer’s game. In Phil’s case, the drop-off in Par-4 Scoring Average and Bogey rate is dramatic and needs to be addressed.

For most of Phil’s career, he’s been a great iron player and a weak driver of the ball with fantastic ability to get up-and-down. So I would immediately wonder how his typical game is playing a factor in this decline in performance. The silver lining in all of this, however, is that he can still make a lot of birdies.

DRIVING DATA

Mickelson_instructor_switch_2

The driving metrics are interesting because the only sub-category of metrics that Phil was better in this season was driving distance. He ended up 74th in Driving Effectiveness, however, the main reason being is that Mickelson ranked third in terms of driving difficulty schedule. I have found it easy for a Tour player to fall in the trap of thinking he is not performing well in a certain area of the game when the reality is that the difficulty has amplified. He can actually be doing well in terms of his performance versus the rest of the field.

For instance, TPC Summerlin is one of the most difficult courses to hit short-game shots (inside 30 yards) on the entire Tour schedule. Thus, I remind my clients to not get too down on themselves if they are not hitting their short-game shots close. The make percentage on the greens is higher, too, so they can save par anyway. This may have been a problem for Phil. He may have felt that his driving performance was not improving, but in reality the conditions and course designs were more difficult than they have been in the past.

APPROACH SHOT DATA

Mickelson_instructor_switch_3

Iron play has usually been Phil’s greatest strength, and it was on display in the 2013 season. It is becoming a weakness now, however. The drop-off is larger from 100-150 yards, but the smart move would be to work on his performance from 175-225 yards, because that will have a bigger influence on lowering his scores.

And just so we can make sure that his drop in iron play is not due to missing more fairways, here is his performance from the fairway versus the rough.

Mickelson_instructor_switch_4-1

Also, there was a new metric that I started to record this year: Scoring Average on Dogleg Left Holes versus Dogleg Right Holes versus Straight-Away Par-4’s (adjusted based on hole difficulty).

Mickelson_instructor_switch_5-1

I find these metrics interesting. Phil’s overall driving has improved, but while he hits a ball that curves from right-to-left his performance on the DogLeg left Par-4’s is much worse.

While I am in the initial stages of studying the doglegs versus the straight-away par-4’s, the initial analysis shows that more of the very long Par-4’s (460+ yards) tend to be DogLeg left holes. With Phil’s performance from 150-225 yards regressing, that may explain why he has struggled on the dogleg left par-4’s this past season. And that regression on longer approach shots would help explain his struggles on the par-3’s, as par-3 play is one part iron play, one part short game and one part putting outside 20-feet.

SHORT GAME DATA

Mickelson_instructor_switch_6

Phil’s Total Short Game performance has regressed mainly because he has regressed most from the most important distance, 10-20 yards. This would play a bigger factor in his struggles on the Par-3’s and his ability to avoid bogeys on the Par-4’s. Essentially, he is not hitting as many GIR because of his iron play, and cannot hit his short game shots close enough to put himself in good position to save par.

PUTTING DATA

Mickelson_Instructor_Switch_7

Phil still putted well in 2015, so I don’t think that is a big issue. In fact, the history on Tour shows he was not likely to sustain his putting from outside 15-feet regardless of what he did after the 2013 season.

I expect Phil to continue to work on his driving, which is not necessarily a bad idea. However, he made nearly $5.5 million and won a major while driving the ball poorly in 2013. I think the better move is to focus on getting his iron play back, particularly from 150-225 yards, and see if they can regain his old short game form.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Steve Allison

    Dec 4, 2015 at 10:45 am

    Phil needs to get shed of that old timey putter, Please Phil go to Scotty!!

  2. Steve Allison

    Dec 4, 2015 at 10:40 am

    The best thing Phil needs to do is to get rid of the old timey putter and go to Scotty Cameron and let Scotty make a putter that is right for him.

  3. Jack

    Dec 3, 2015 at 9:23 am

    Great article. Another good read from Rich! Really interested to see the findings on dog legs. I’m thinking that you may see better scoring with players that shape the ball against the shape of the hole. Ie misses will more likely be on the ‘far side’ of the dog leg!

  4. Pingback: Back Nine News – The Best Golf Stories & Videos of the Week | Golf Science

  5. I'm Ron Burgundy??

    Dec 2, 2015 at 2:18 pm

    I enjoyed the analysis! It is very interesting to see stuff like this and number do not lie. I wonder how much is rheumatoid arthritis has played into his ability to be able to practice and play as often as he would like? I would assume that someone with his condition has good and bad days.

  6. Richard

    Dec 2, 2015 at 5:52 am

    Very interesting but with one error which I wish all columnists at Golfwrx would get right. It is The Open NOT The British Open.

    • Richard

      Dec 3, 2015 at 4:06 am

      HI Bubba. With respect, please check out the PGA Tour Schedule for 2015/16… http://www.pgatour.com/news/2015/07/30/schedule-release.html
      You will see that the PGA tour even call it “The Open Championship”. Calling it the British Open would be like calling The Masters The American Masters as there are various Masters tournements around the world. I know I’m being a golf pedant. 🙂

      • Bob

        Dec 6, 2015 at 2:17 am

        Isn’t calling it the British Open more analogous to calling the men’s open tournament run by the USGA the “U.S. Open”?

  7. Bobalu

    Dec 1, 2015 at 6:19 pm

    RH- Well done. Interesting analysis. Let us know if Phil sees this and gives you any feedback.

  8. Greg V

    Dec 1, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    Phil won $5.5 million in 2013 based largely on wins at the Scottish Open, Open Championship and a second place finish in the US Open. The keys to his fine play in those three tournaments were Phil’s use of the mini driver off the tee, and fantastic wedge play.

    The mini driver and excellent wedge play are really all you need to know about the keys to Phil’s ability to win another major.

    • Richie Hunt

      Dec 1, 2015 at 2:18 pm

      Greg V –

      I don’t have the data for those specific events because 2 are majors and the other is the Scottish Open which does not count towards those $5.5 million in earnings (PGA Tour only). You will generally find that in the Majors, shots from 175-250 yards matter most if you want to segment them. Driving is typically more important at the US Open than at the British Open. But, wedge play rarely makes a substantial impact. I think from 2013 we can see how elite Phil’s iron play was and I would imagine that it carried over to the British, Scottish and US Opens. In Phil’s years using the mini-driver, his driving still wasn’t very effective.

  9. cgasucks

    Dec 1, 2015 at 11:28 am

    While I understand why Phil had to change instructors, he has to accept the fact that he’s not the young gun as he once was in the late 90s and early 2000s (Jordan, Rory, Jason and Dustin have that torch now) and his career is on the downswing. He’ll have to accept 10 ten finishes at best while he is old enough for the Champions tour.

  10. HG Wells

    Dec 1, 2015 at 11:25 am

    I do think we’ve all been waiting for the other shoe to drop with the RA and it’s effect on his game. And of course his age can’t be overlooked, although based on his driving distance he’s still plenty competitive athletically. Really though, looking at those stats, doesn’t just look like someone who hasn’t been playing as much golf? It really all looks like just an overall decline in sharpness due to fewer reps in the practice area. It’s always seemed to me that his golf game kept his interest much longer than most of the top money winners in the era of instant-millionaire golf, but it’s only natural to slow down a bit when life is frankly pretty damn good by all appearances. And with that much money on the table, the young guys are now grinding harder than ever to get there.

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Opinion & Analysis

“There is no magic bullet in club fitting” – On Spec podcast

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On this week’s episode of the “On Spec” podcast on the GolfWRX radio network, the discussion was focused on all things club fitting and what it can and can’t do to help golfers.

One of the most important take-aways was about some of the misconceptions around how much a club fitting can help improve the results of a less than ideal swing.

“There is no magic bullet when it comes to fitting… It’s not to stop you from doing anything (in your golf swing) … But by going through a proper fitting, and process you can help reduce a miss (improving consitency)” 

You can listen to the full show below, the above quote starts at 41:38 

You can check out other episodes of On Spec, as well as the entire collection of shows on the GolfWRX Radio Network here: GolfWRX Radio on SoundCloud

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TG2: Testing a RAW golf ball and some different holiday gift ideas

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Wilson Golf has a new raw golf ball that has no paint on it. The raw golf ball gives a more precise dimple depth and offers better dispersion and consistency. The ball has a firmer feel than the first Staff Model but really good performance off the tee and with the wedges. Also, a few ideas for some different holiday gifts.

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Wedge Guy: Why do we REALLY play golf?

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One of the fascinating things about the 40-year golf industry career I have been blessed with is how much I have learned about golfers…just by asking. Over these four decades, I have repeatedly conducted surveys of golfers from multiple communities to help me better understand just what it is you all want from me as a club designer and blog writer.

I’ve surveyed buyers of the products I’ve designed and marketed over the years…and from golfers who engaged with those companies but did not “pull the trigger”. I’ve worked with the best market research companies in the industry to both study their own research as well as to conduct custom proprietary surveys to dive deeper into what golfers are really thinking and feeling about this game we all love.

You might remember that we even conducted a survey of you readers of “The Wedge Guy” column some time back, which also proved enlightening for me. Thanks to all of you who participated.

I would like to invite you all to participate in another survey, but this one is not as much about “how” you play the game, but rather “why”. What are the forces that keep you coming back time and again to put yourself up against the challenges this crazy game throws at you?

Is the experience more important than the numerical outcome? Or the number counts more than how it got there?

I’m going to ask you all to dive into this survey and share your thoughts and feelings. And just to make your time worthwhile, I’m going to give a new custom-built Edison Forged wedge away to one of you just to say thanks.

Please click on this link – SURVEY – and spend a few minutes sharing your thoughts and approach to the game. I will collect your responses for a week or two, then report back to you all what you shared, so that all of us can understand each other just a bit better, OK?

Thank you for your time and participation, and for reading this column each week. I totally enjoy sharing with you and plan to continue for as long as GolfWRX will have me.

Take the survey here. 

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