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Hole 5: Ben Hogan’s “Prototype” Fly Swatter

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One year after Mr. Hogan’s “I had a dream” speech, we gathered for another annual company sales meeting. It had been another good year for the Ben Hogan Golf Company, with sales of our Edge irons going strong and the GS (Gene Sheeley) model under development for the future.

Mr. Hogan’s speech to the sales force that night at TPC Los Colinas was quite memorable, but it only lasted two minutes. In that two-minute address, however, he tipped over the first in a line of dominos that would give me my greatest golf trophy. One year later, that same line of dominos would create a very long and sleepless night for me.

Here’s how it went down. Mr. Hogan once again addressed his worldwide sales force and the corporate leaders from our headquarters in Fort Worth. Like years past, he was impeccably dressed in a suit (we all were) and he was quite stoic. To the best of my memory, here’s what he said:

[quote_box_center]”Men, we are going to make a new golf club. It will be better than our successful Edge. I believe it will change the game of golf. It will help make those golfers who now shoot 100s shoot 90s.[/quote_box_center]

He paused. 

[quote_box_center]”It will make those who now shoot 90s shoot 80s.”[/quote_box_center]

There was another long pause.

[quote_box_center]”It will make those who now shoot 80s shoot 70s. It will be so damn good I may just take it back out on Tour.”[/quote_box_center]

With that, he stepped away from the microphone and sat down. The crowd was not quite sure how to respond, but soon they were giving Mr. Hogan a rowdy round of applause. His speech did not invoke the same response as the year before, but it didn’t take much to please this crowd. If Mr. Hogan had got up and said his ABCs or just counted to 100 everyone would have cheered and been glad they saw the man do it.

The second Mr. Hogan announced he was going to make a new club, I found many eye balls around the room looking at me. New clubs were my thing at the Ben Hogan Golf Company, so they assumed I knew what he was talking about. As soon as the spiller of the beans sat down and the formal part of the night was over, a number of them (including our president) asked me to fill them in on the specifics of the club Mr. Hogan had heralded. More than one jaw dropped as I told them I had no idea what he was talking about.

Maybe Gene was working on something secret with Mr. Hogan, I told them. Gene was not at the sales meeting, so we would be waiting a few hours before we knew what he knew.

I went and saw Gene the next morning and told him what happened. He was confused as I was. Neither of us knew about Mr. Hogan’s secret, and possibly imaginary club! I found company president Jerry Austry, and told him that Gene didn’t know what Mr. Hogan was describing last night. Jerry told me I’d better get up to Mr. Hogan’s office and figure it out.

With no idea what I was walking into, I went into Mr. Hogan office. “What?” he said, as I knocked on the frame of his office door.

[quote_box_center]”Mr. Hogan, you told the company last night you had a new idea for a great club,” I said. “Do you want us to get to work on a prototype? If you will tell me what you have in mind we will get right on it.”[/quote_box_center]

He looked at me for a bit, and then started to describe a low-profile utility club that had everything. To call it a hybrid would not do it justice. This was a time before these types of clubs were in vogue. I’m going to hold out two features, but what I can tell you is that Mr. Hogan’s dream club had a very long, yet lightweight hosel. It also had a heavy keel, turf-riding sole, and the low-profile body had a very low CG. It would shaft up with an extreme offset and inset, and would even have a bent shaft.

flyswatter3 (1)

An artist’s illustration of Ben Hogan’s famed grip on a fly swatter.

At this point, I made a big mistake and talked. I told him that the club he was dreaming up might be non-conforming. He looked at me with those drilling, bright blue eyes and told me that I had better worry about him right now, not the USGA. Just build it and see if it works. We would worry about the USGA later.

He was right. The man known for classic blades was very creative. He knew real innovation requires risk and taking chances. We should prototype early and often. We could learn from the mistakes and move on. And we should never miss a chance to make something better for everyone. Let’s kiss all the frogs and hope a few will turn into something good!

Mr. Hogan knew all these things, and he made sure I understood them that day. It was a way of living and thinking I then chose for the rest of my career. I don’t know from whom or how he got that creed, but he had it and he knew how to pass it on.

The club Mr. Hogan was describing to me that morning was hard to put into words at the time. He could see my confusion and he got frustrated that I didn’t see it as clearly as he did. He needed something to use as an example, so he spun around to his credenza and came back with a very old fly swatter. It looked like the one my grandfather used. He then told me to “come here.” I had to step around the corner of that huge desk, a place where I had only seen Gene go. I never expected to go back there. When I did, he gave me the fly swatter and told me to “grip it and address the ball.”

[quote_box_center]Huh? I thought. What? What ball? Address it with a fly swatter?[/quote_box_center]

He was dead serious. With Mr. Hogan sitting in a chair two feet in front of me, I gripped the bug weapon and stood there frozen, pretending that his right knee was the ball.

“Is that your grip?” he asked.

By the way he asked the question, I knew I was in trouble. He reached up with an open right hand and swatted my hands on the swatter. It wasn’t hard enough to constitute an assault, but hard enough to get my attention. It was like one of the times my football coach would slap the side of my helmet, grab my face mask and pull me in face to face so I could experience up close his booming voice and a few sprays of screaming spit as he coached me up to be and play better. Mr. Hogan was a great coach, so the shock effect worked for him, too.

There must have been something about my grip he just couldn’t stand, and he was determined to fix it before we could go on. Those super strong hands of his came up and pushed, pulled and repositioned my hands on the swatter’s wire handle. I was getting a hands-on grip lesson from the Wee Ice Mon, Mr. Ben Hogan. Wow oh wow!

After he had my hands to a minimum acceptable grip, he told me again to address the ball. “Yes sir,” I said. I went into my pre-shot routine, shifting my weight from foot to foot as I waggled the pretend club a few times. I then glanced down the imaginary fairway, which was the north wall of his office. I didn’t want to screw up again, and I settled into what must have been an acceptable address position.

Mr. Hogan then went to the neck of the fly swatter I was gripping and started to twist and shape the wires — the imaginary shaft and hosel — the way he wanted the new club to be made. If these bends were put in a real club it would help promote a natural closing rotation at impact, I noticed. I didn’t think it would help someone who had a tendency to hook the ball, as Mr. Hogan did, but for those who hard cut or sliced the ball it would be cool feature. Mr. Hogan had the physics right, but I still doubted the USGA would go for it. I kept my mouth shut, however.

“Do you understand what I want?” Mr. Hogan asked. “Yes, sir,” I said.

“Now, just go do it!” he said.

Mr. Hogan probably didn’t realize what he had just said, but my future Nike brothers and sisters would have been proud.

Without changing my hands or taking them off the high-speed insect whacker, I walked out of his office gripping the world’s most unique prototype golf club. This one was hand crafted by Ben Hogan himself. I did not want to let go of my new grip, so I shoulder bumped all the doors open on the way back to my office. When I got there, I sat down to think about what had just happened.

It wasn’t until I went to lunch that I released my new Hogan grip on the wires. I never gave the swatter back to Mr. Hogan, and he never mentioned it. I used it to describe to the design team what we would build and prototype, and I’ve still got it. It’s old, rusty, and bent out of shape, and it will never kill another fly. I know it wouldn’t mean anything to anyone else but me. Through the last three decades, I’ve kept hundreds of keepsakes and clubs — even some clubs played and hit by major champions — but that old fly swatter is by far my favorite trophy.

Over the next 12 months, we would build several prototypes based on that fly swatter. One of those prototypes would be at the center of a memorable, sleepless and wild night. On the next hole I will tell you what happened.

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Tom Stites has spent more than 30 years working in the golf industry. In that time, he has been awarded more than 200 golf-related patents, and has designed and engineered more than 300 golf products that have been sold worldwide. As part of his job, he had the opportunity to work with hundreds of touring professionals and developed clubs that have been used to win all four of golf's major championships (several times), as well as 200+ PGA Tour events. Stites got his golf industry start at the Ben Hogan Company in 1986, where Ben Hogan and his personal master club builder Gene Sheeley trained the young engineer in club design. Tom went on to start his own golf club equipment engineering company in 1993 in Fort Worth, Texas, which he sold to Nike Inc. in 2000. The facility grew and became known as "The Oven," and Stites led the design and engineering teams there for 12 years as the Director of Product Development. Stites, 59, is a proud veteran of the United States Air Force. He is now semi-retired, but continues his work as an innovation, business, engineering and design consultant. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of the Ben Hogan Foundation, a 501C foundation that works to preserve the legacy and memory of the late, great Ben Hogan.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. FredWomble

    Aug 19, 2015 at 10:34 pm

    Great series. I was afraid reading it.The Hogan mystique came through in this story!

  2. Steve Thomas

    Aug 19, 2015 at 2:50 pm

    Tom:
    Can you make this a 72 hole tournament? I can’t get enough of these stories!

  3. Zach Mayo

    Aug 18, 2015 at 10:28 am

    Keep us dangling for installment # 6. !!!!
    Like Ive said before Mr Stites….. your story telling matches the quality of the clubs you’ve made . SPECTACULAR.
    The first 5 holes were birdies on my scorecard..keep it up and you could have the perfect round of 18 birdies that was the dream of the man whose stories you engage us with.

  4. Wiley

    Aug 16, 2015 at 11:30 am

    Definitely will need an emergency nine!

  5. Philip

    Aug 13, 2015 at 11:48 pm

    Great story telling. Don’t forget that there is always the 19th hole, and that one never ends …

  6. Ken

    Aug 13, 2015 at 4:32 pm

    When it comes to the wisdom of Mr. Hogan, maybe we could play 36? Great article. Thanks.

  7. Tom Wishon

    Aug 13, 2015 at 11:49 am

    TS, keep these up because I’m really enjoying these as well. And when you finish 18, think about creating a second 18 as well !! Hope all is well with you these days.

    • tom stites

      Aug 13, 2015 at 4:22 pm

      Thanks Tom. Hope to see you again soon.

    • rymail00

      Aug 13, 2015 at 9:14 pm

      Yup agree with Mr. Wishon. I really hope to read more stories after this 18. I’m sure your time at Nike could fill a book (which would be very cool too). If there’s one I really hope there’s another 18 to help past the wait. We’re equipment junkys and I believe that’s why reading yours, Mr. Adams, and Mr. Wishon articles are so interesting.

      Keep them coming.
      Ryan

  8. Howard

    Aug 13, 2015 at 10:19 am

    Tom, These stories are great and this one is the best so far. I never grow tired of reading about Mr. Hogan. One of my most treasured mementos is a letter I received from him about a week after I wrote him to tell him how much Five Lessons had improved my golf game. I’ve been hooked ever since.

  9. Ronald Montesano

    Aug 13, 2015 at 7:35 am

    Also, Did Anthony Ravelli draw the image you used of grip and fly swatter?

    RM

    • tom stites

      Aug 13, 2015 at 8:30 am

      The art was done by a good friend of mine who happens to be a very gifted illustrator and artist. I asked him to help me tell the story. There are just no photos on the internet of someone golf gripping a fly swatter. He did a great job. I can say however we were both inspired by the great works of art in the Five Lessons Book.

  10. Ronald Montesano

    Aug 13, 2015 at 7:30 am

    Tom, I simply cannot wait for each successive installment. You are gifting all of us with rare insight, the type that we would never be able to acquire on our own. Thank you.

    RM

  11. gvogel

    Aug 12, 2015 at 8:26 pm

    What?!!! I have to wait until hole number 6?!!!!!

    Aghhhhh.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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