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Use statistics to improve your practice and achieve your golf goals

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Ben Larsen is a contributor to GolfWRX, and Strategic Content Manager at Arccos Golf, the game’s first fully-automatic performance-tracking system.

Game. Improvement.

Those are perhaps the two most important words in the game of golf. If you’re not trying to improve, you’re just not trying. While there is undoubtedly a percentage of golfers who are “happy” with the levels they’re playing at, a large majority of golfers are endlessly working on their games.

From early-morning hours on the practice tee to weekly lessons with a PGA Professional (and the countless time spent off the course obsessing about all things golf), game improvement for you, me and tour pros never ends.

[quote_box_center]”Every week, we’re all trying to get better,” said Billy Horschel, a three-time winner on the PGA Tour and reigning FedExCup champion. “There is always something to work on, fix, tweak or improve on. With the amount of time we spend on our games, it’s important also to be working on the right parts of our games.”[/quote_box_center]

Clearly, the name of the game is improvement. But what are golfers to improve on? Better yet, what facets of their game should they be focusing on?

Arccos-TA-4

Do you really need a 4 iron? Arccos tracks your usage, average distances, and longest distances with each club.

It first begins with tracking. To assess your golf game, you should be tracking it. Whether it’s with an app, product, spreadsheet or pen and paper, documenting your game and generating data is the first step in the right direction.

[quote_box_center]

“For Tour pros, the competition is so good each and every week that we’re looking for an edge, however small it might be,” Horschel said. “That may mean identifying a trend that is leading to poor performance in your game, then focusing your practice time on fixing it.

“This can quite literally be the difference between recording a top finish or heading home for the weekend. It could even be the key to winning a tournament.”

[/quote_box_center]

The thing is, there is so much room for error in golf. With so many ways to improve, it can also be hard pinpointing what you should be working on. With that, we at Arccos break down the key stats and insights by category — across the five key facets of the game — you can generate from tracking your stats to make it easy for you to identify the areas most in need of improvement.

Driving

Arccos-TA-3

He might think he’s struggling with his driving (8.6 handicap), but the real key to improvement for this golfer is better putting (17.3 handicap).

Average driving distance, longest drive and standard deviation are all quantifiable stats that help you understand the consistency of your swings off the tee. Tracking your drives can also provide percentages on fairways hit and missed, along with whether you tend to miss left or right.

Approach

Arccos-TA-2

When this golfer misses the green, he tends to miss it to the left.

The most popular stat in the approach game is certainly greens in regulation. Surely, improving GIR will lead to more birdie opportunities, thus likely lowering your score. That said, it’s important to dive even deeper into your approach play. For instance, tracking your performance allows you to generate statistics like distance to pin on greens hit, distance to pin on all approaches, misses left and right and misses short or long. For those of us short on the majority of missed greens, improving GIR and your game may be as simple as choosing the right club. Tracking stats and identifying trends will help you do that.

Chipping

Arccos-TA-1

Are your chip shots as close to the hole as they should be for your handicap?

Ask any tour pro and they’ll agree. Around the greens is where the money is made — and lost. When tracking your short game, focus on your chip-and-down percentage, which quantifies how often you need only one putt to finish a hole after a chip. Another key stat to help dial in your short game practice is average distance to pin on chips. For instance, if your putting is suffering, it may not be your putting stroke. You may need to work on getting the ball closer to the hole when off the green.

Sand

Like chipping, sand play is incredibly important when trying to save par or limit a blowup hole. Similarly, sand-and-down and average distance to the pin on sand shots can really help unlock some understanding of your play from the bunkers.

Putting

Understanding your putting performance is perhaps the most important piece to game improvement. So many shots are lost or gained, rounds made or broken, with the putter. To dial into your putting performance, monitor putts per hole, putts after GIR and your percentage of one-putts. That will help identify if your putting woes are caused by a poor stroke, not giving yourself a chance to make putts or a combination of the two.

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Ben Larsen serves as Strategic Content Manager at Arccos Golf. Prior to joining Team Arccos, Ben spent more than a decade in the sports media as a writer, editor, columnist and managing editor, including stints at ESPN, AmateurGolf.com and Back9Network. Having been bitten by the golf bug nearly 20 years ago, Ben takes great pride in honing his daughter's swing, saving par and never, under any circumstances laying up.

18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Hawk

    Aug 14, 2015 at 11:35 am

    I’d be very interested in this if it didn’t require the sensors. I currently use game golf app because it is completely free, and it tracks my clubs for free. I don’t need the sensors at all. I have built into my pre-shot routine to pull out my phone check yardage and track the club I’m about to use. It helps a ton. However; the stats are limited, and I can’t add players I’m playing with.
    The in depth stats this system provides is awesome, but at that cost it isn’t worth it to me, when I can do the same thing for free. Is Accros planing on providing this feature as game golf has?

    • Jayme Johnson

      Aug 25, 2015 at 2:20 pm

      Hi Hawk,

      I’m working with a company building a sensor-based swing analyzer product but approaching it differently. Your input on sensor-based products could be very valuable. Would you be willing to chat for 15 minutes?

      If so, please email me or plug in a time we can speak here: https://calendly.com/jayme-1/customer-interview.

      Thanks for your help!

  2. Sam T.

    Jul 23, 2015 at 12:50 pm

    Interesting read on the value of stats, I’d imagine they must have paid big bucks to get this infomercial going about aRccos too.

    I’ve tested out Arccos but returned it because yes the sensors are way to bulky and get scraped up very easily. I checked their website then too and it costs $50 per sensor to be replaced… give me a break! I don’t like having my phone on the course so i went the the Game Golf system. Love it, easy to use, tapping the sensors comes second nature after 2/3 rounds and it has actually helped my pre shot routine for focus and consistency. Stats though are great, to be able to see where I am falling short is remarkably useful. An extra 2 hours a week on the putting green has shaved 3 strokes off my handicap already.

    Stats rock but there are definitely better options out there then this. It’s just too over priced and they talk a big game but don’t deliver. I would take a look at golf tags too if you’re android but game golf seems to be leading the charge in this category and have a free app.

    • Jayme Johnson

      Aug 25, 2015 at 2:37 pm

      Hi Sam,

      Great comments here. Would you be willing to speak with me 15 minutes to talk more about your experience with this product and other stat-apps aimed at improving your golf game? Im working with a company developing a new swing training product and your feedback could be very valuable. If interested, please message me back or select a time slot for us to speak here: https://calendly.com/jayme-1/customer-interview.

      Thanks so much, Jayme

  3. Mark

    Jul 23, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    I’ve been using the system since January. It’s not perfect, but is still a great product. You can edit shots on the fly after a hole, or wait until after the round. If you’re playing with wind or weather, you can see how you’ve been hitting your clubs so far that day and make adjustments whether they are going longer/shorter than normal. The sensors are bigger than I would prefer, but it is what it is, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. I honestly forget them as soon as I take my grip and the weight of them isn’t noticeable. When I have had an issue, I have emailed the company and gotten a real human response very quickly. You can tell they really get how important customer service is in this industry. Overall I would highly recommend picking it up. If you have Android, this is further evidence that you are failing at life. So throw your Droid in the trash, buy an iPhone, then go buy Arccos.

  4. JP K

    Jul 22, 2015 at 8:07 pm

    Is the data editable? The problem with the Motorola watch was any recording errors ruined your stats and you couldn’t edit it.

    • Adam

      Jul 23, 2015 at 7:53 am

      it’s very easily editable after the round. I open the app while looking at the online overview of each hole so I can see a bigger picture of the details to make accurate changes.

  5. Steve

    Jul 22, 2015 at 6:50 pm

    Infomercial, hope WRX got paid for this

  6. Adam

    Jul 22, 2015 at 3:09 pm

    I have been using these all season and don’t notice any weight difference. In fact I always forget they are even there.
    Also I should add that this product is amazing and the knowledge I have gained about my club distances and accuracy have made me way more accurate with club selection. I can’t tell you how many times in the past I was hitting great shots on perfect lines that were wasted by having the wrong club in my hand. It made me think that my ball striking was lacking when it was really club selection.
    I was a 14.1 Handicap after last season, and I’ve brought my handicap down to 11.8 in my 13 rounds this year (plus the last 7 from last year to make up my most recent 20). My handicap from rounds this season alone is 10, so in another month or two I should have the handicap right around high single digits…
    I learned about my consistency hitting greens with mid-long irons which gave me confidence to keep the driver in the bag and lay up on tee shots a lot more often which has saved me about 2-3 penalty strokes per round. I noticed that my chipping HCP was terrible and it was really impacting my putting stats so I focused practice around my short game and it’s a huge difference.

    Highly recommend using any means available to stat track your game if you really want tangible, long lasting improvement. I was discussing my golf game with a buddy recently and the question came up “What is your goal in golf?’ He said he wanted to break 80, and I said I wanted to break 80 every round….

    • Adam

      Aug 12, 2015 at 9:08 am

      Just another update…
      Now after 18 rounds this season that Index is down to 10.5 from 14.1
      Arccos is easily the biggest factor in making my practice and on course approaches more effective.

  7. Busineus

    Jul 22, 2015 at 2:14 pm

    When are you going to have an Android version?

    • Darren Tan

      Jul 23, 2015 at 1:19 am

      Second that. Wanted to buy but no android version after so long.

  8. Dave S

    Jul 22, 2015 at 1:59 pm

    Wish they weren’t so big (by that I mean tall). I’m sure there’s no noticable swing weight difference, but mentally, I’d feel like i was choking up on every club, which would mess with my head. Ideally, these sensors would be more like GameGolf’s, but I know they’re bigger bc there’s more built-in tech (not having to tap something attached to your belt before each shot is worth the larger size). Hopefully technological advances will lead to smaller sensors in the future, because I really want this product.

  9. Ron Burgundy

    Jul 22, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    How much do these weigh on your clubs? How many swing weights does it change each club?

    • Ben Larsen

      Jul 22, 2015 at 1:01 pm

      Hi Ron: Each sensor weighs less than 12 grams and has no noticeable swing weight impact.

      • Ben M.

        Jul 23, 2015 at 1:49 pm

        Ben, THAT’S NOT FAIR. 12 Grams adds more than 2 Club Weights. Be honest man, we’re not stupid!!!

      • Scott

        Jul 23, 2015 at 4:04 pm

        How can it not? Maybe you are just not that perceptive when it comes to swing weight, which is OK, because a lot of players aren’t

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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