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You should fire at more flag sticks, and here’s why

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As a statistician, a common conversation I have with golfers is when they should shoot at flagsticks and when they should avoid them and choose a more conservative target. If most golfers knew what I know, however, I doubt I’d have the conversation so frequently.

Here’s what you need to know.

Tour players are essentially firing at flags all the time. When they don’t, it’s most likely because they have a funky lie and aren’t sure how the ball will react. Otherwise, they are trying to get the ball as close to the hole as they can — and for good reason. They are not going to make many birdies if their birdie putts are more than 20 feet from the cup. Too few birdie chances from inside the 20-foot range means they probably won’t win… or make the cut… or keep their Tour card.

After recording so many rounds and researching the data, I’ve come to believe that while golfers can always improve their swing mechanics, they first need to overcome some defects in their mental outlook or they will continue to succumb to the same pitfalls. I have found that this advice even applies to many Tour players. I could discuss the numbers to give golfers a better idea of when to play safe or fire at the flag, but I’ve found that the numbers are not as important as a golfer’s mentality about good shots and bad shots.

There is an old adage in golf: “The difference between Tour players and the rest of us is that they hit better bad shots.” On average, I find that Tour players do hit better bad shots than the rest of us, however, they also hit a lot of miserable golf shots. Want proof? Below is a video of the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world, Rory McIlroy, topping a 3-wood from the fairway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNM5Ko1_Zsc

A couple of years ago, I had a PGA Tour client who could not stop shanking pitch shots for about a month. Another Tour player, U.S. Open Champion Webb Simpson, has also talked about his occasional shanking problems. And I’ve seen Tour players hit pop ups, snap hooks and horribly fat shots as well. Tour players are not robots, and they’re going to hit some horrendous shots.

To me, the belief that Tour players hit better “bad shots” than all other golfers has been detrimental to development of a lot of golfers’ games, because they buy into the concept too heavily. They relate golf to other sports like football and basketball, and forget that golf is different than those sports.

In sports like football and basketball, it is common to see a coach yelling at the players constantly. I have no issue with this, as those sports revolve around energy levels and avoiding mistakes. And in those sports, mistakes are often avoidable. We have all seen the inferior team in basketball and football come out with a high energy level and beat the team with superior talent that comes out flat. And often times, that high energy level translates into avoiding mistakes because the players are paying attention and not loafing around.

In golf, a high energy level can actually work against peak performance. Even more importantly, golf is a game where mistakes are usually unavoidable. I can be paying attention and have the perfect energy level to hit a shot, but we know from launch monitors how slim the difference between a great shot and a bad shot really is.. and that doesn’t factor in imperfect course conditions. Essentially, we erroneously believe that golf is supposed to be a mistake-free game, when in reality it is filled with mistakes — even in great rounds of golf.

The statistical data of golf suggests that the difference between Tour players and the rest of us is that Tour players hit better good shots and they hit those good shots more frequently. A big part of that? Tour players give themselves the chance to hit good shots by aiming at that flag when the rest of us might aim for the middle of the green in fear of mishitting a shot. That’s why I recommend having a mindset of trying to accumulate good shots in a round instead of trying to avoid bad shots. You are going to hit bad shots, even in great rounds of golf. And if you can hit enough good or great shots, you can more than offset the bad ones.

The Masters - Round One

No. 16 at Augusta National.

A classic example of Tour players benefitting from an aggressive mentality is No. 16 at Augusta National. Let’s imagine we have the Sunday pin position on the back of the left side of the green. We know that if the player hits it pin high toward the center of the green, the ball will funnel toward the hole. So let’s imagine that the center of the green, about pin high, is where we want to aim.

One of the things I learned from sports and performance psychologist Dr. Bhrett McCabe is what he calls “good focus,” which is when you focus on one thing and nothing else matters, as McCabe says. By this definition, “bad focus” is when we have divided our focus so everything matters to us.

In the case of No. 16 at Augusta, good focus would be putting our attention on the shot we need to hit to the center of the green. I think we have all experienced good focus at one time or another in golf… you know, the 20-foot putt that we just sense we are going to make. All we focus on is the hole and hitting the ball into the cup, and it goes in. That’s what we want with the shot on No. 16. We want to focus on what shot we need to hit and nothing else.

The issue for most golfers, using No. 16 as an example, is that they have so much fear about hitting their shot into the water hazard that flanks the left side of the green they don’t allow themselves to hit a good shot. Their focus is too divided, and that lack of clarity results in misses: shots hit so far to the right that they can’t make par, or shots hit short or left into the water.

No. 16 at Augusta National.

No. 16’s green complex at Augusta National.

Bad focus comes from what I call “False Confidence,” which is when golfers think they won’t hit a bad shot during a round. What inevitably happens is that the golfer does hit a bad shot and it destroys their confidence. It often happens on a hole like No. 16, where they feel as though they cannot, under any circumstances, hit the ball in the water or their chances of playing a good round will have vanished.

The Tour players who use good focus have what I call “True Confidence;” they know that they are going to mishit at least some golf shots. Tour players are humans, after all. Players with True Confidence are still confident in their abilities, however, so they know that they can always hit great shots in order to make up for their mistakes.

Golfers with False Confidence will hit a drive into the woods and can’t believe they just did that. They resign themselves to making bogey on the hole. Golfers with True Confidence will hit a drive into the woods and focus on hitting a great shot in order to save par. And if they are unable to save par on that hole, they know they can hit a series of great shots in the holes or rounds remaining to negate the bad shot.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Travis

    May 5, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    I think people posting to this comment are: 1) extremely skeptical, and 2) not good enough to make the bold statements that they are. Why also does one assume that “firing at a flagstick” automatically means taking direct aim at the flagstick and hitting the ball straight? Additionally, does everyone on here know Tour professionals and know their thoughts and play styles?

    I am by no means a professional, but I bounce between scratch and a +2. If a pin is tuck right, I am 100% firing at the flagstick by aiming at the center of the green and trying to fade the ball towards the pin. I strongly believe the goal of a PGA Tour player 90% of the time, if not 100% of the time, is to get the ball as close to the hole as possible.

    Statistically, that HAS to be your goal as you are far more likely to make a putt the closer you are to the hole. There is no Tour player out there cashing big checks by saying “my goal is to be 25ft away every single time and pray I make a putt, that statistically I have only a 10% change of making.”

    Your goal every time should be to get the ball as close to the pin as possible. There are many ways to do that which aren’t hitting a dead straight ball aiming at the pin. However, should you “fire” at the pin by always trying to get your ball to end up as close to the hole as you possibly can get it? Obviously.

    – Travis

  2. Matt

    Aug 6, 2015 at 2:07 pm

    I will say an area the author didn’t mention was that PGA Tour players average 6-7 for their approach shots.

    For a high handicap player to average a 6-7 iron into the green they want to average 135 into the green on their approach shots. Their Par 4 yardage should be 355, and should probably stick to what ever tee box gets them 6100 yards.

    Too many times I’ve noticed players constantly hitting hybrids and 3-woods into greens. There is no way a higher handicap golfer can shoot at the pins when they are basically hitting 4-5 clubs more than what a PGA Tour player would hit into the green.

  3. myron miller

    Aug 5, 2015 at 6:07 pm

    Interesting: In the first sentence you say you are a statistician and like others complained don’t use any stats to prove your statement. I also am a statistician and look at the odds of the hole and probability chances/average score versus the once in the lifetime shot potential.

    I will much better play the overall odds and with a tucked in front right pin very close to the right side always aim at the center of the green. What percentage of the time will I hit the green versus the percentage missing (9 handicap) either right, long or short. Even on my good days, I’d bet I only hit the extreme right side pin green less than 25% of the time. Put steep bunker or water there and guess what I’m now playing for 4 or 5 at best. Whereas if I am so that the ball goes towards the center, I am at least there or just short which is much easier putt. Now I’ve got chance for birdie and par is much easier. Even 5% birdie chance with mostly pars is better overall average then 50% bogey or double bogey chance.

    Put the flag in the center or back right, of course I’ll go for it. No question. Front right depends on what’s in front of the green. I run the percentages and odds. And most of the time, going for the center of the green yields a better score than going for every pin. (And if I do remember there was a statistician that actually calculated that hitting the center of the green regardless of where the pin was yielded better average scores for the average 15-25 handicap golfer. And it has nothing to do with confidence or whatever. Actually someone in that handicap range is almost guaranteed to putt better than chip.

    As others have indicated, consider the average miss on approach shots. Statistics say that the pros don’t miss left/right/long short by any where near what the average golfer does. And there are lots of stats to prove this. As your average miss distance goes down, so can your percentage of going for the pins The stats will bear this out. For a statistician to ignore them is questionable.

  4. JMaron

    Aug 5, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    Plain and simple, pros are better because they hit way more good shots and they also hit way fewer bad shots. They are simply better.

    The reason amateurs have a split focus and play safe more often is because they are being rational about their abilities. Firing at a flag you have almost zero chance of getting close to is simply bad strategy. Worrying about the water on the right when you slice every shot is just plain sensible.

    I find all this positive focus stuff a bunch nonsense. The best round I ever played involved a 30 on the back nine. I hit every shot almost perfectly (longest putt made was 15 feet or so). I knew I was playing the round of my life, and guess what – I had split focus on every darn shot. Not my normal level of self doubt – I’m talking an escalating level of don’t screw this up you idiot, kind of doubt. Switched back and forth from aggressive strategy on some holes to conservative on others and constantly 2nd guessed myself even as I stood over the shots. Yet it all worked out.

    My believe is that there are levels of abilities and the odds take over. Some days a guy like me who is a 2 handicap gets lucky and flukes out 16 swings in a row that are right at the top of my ability. Maybe the odds of me making 16 in a row is 10,000 to 1 or something, whereas for Tour pros it’s 100-1 or so…..who knows exactly, but my point is that’s all it is. I think the strokes gained statistics have shown that is essentially what’s going on in the game.

    The point the author made about accepting the fact you will hit some horrible shots and focus on how many good ones you hit, might be a decent strategy for enjoyment, but I don’t think it has anything to do with the level of results you can expect.

  5. Andy

    Aug 5, 2015 at 12:26 pm

    I agree with the author, but not from a stats perspective, but rather from an emotional perspective. I find when I swing at a pin, I am feeling confident and aggressive and my swing will then be aggressive and often times, my best results come from this “feeling”. I find playing for the center of a green seems to cause some hint of doubt and because my target is not a specific object, my results seem to degrade. I don’t have personal stats to prove this, just memories.

  6. Bob Jones

    Aug 5, 2015 at 12:15 pm

    Rich, how did you correct the player who shanked pitch shots? That mistake infects my pitching game, too. Thanks.

    • Rich Hunt

      Aug 5, 2015 at 3:26 pm

      I don’t do any coaching from a mechanics standpoint. I only present statistical information to the player. Any coaching is between the player and their coach.

  7. 8thehardway

    Aug 5, 2015 at 10:58 am

    NEVER fire at the flag stick.
    If you shoot 75-79 you probably miss 9 greens a round; 12 if you shoot 81-85. Greens are massive, golf holes are tiny – if you can’t hit a 100×100-foot target more than half the time, what are the chances you’ll be within 15 feet of a 4.25” hole? Well, what are the chances you play like Justin Leonard? He was the PGA Tour’s leader from 50-125 yards in 2014 and his average proximity was 15 feet, 6 inches, from which distance tour players 2-putt most of the time (77%). So if you are 150 yards out and betting with someone who isn’t Justin Leonard, now you know what not to do.

    • Richard Grime

      Aug 23, 2015 at 4:21 pm

      I couldn’t have said it better myself. I also play off nine and I only play better when I play to the safe side of the flag.

  8. Gordy

    Aug 5, 2015 at 9:02 am

    I’d put it this way to every golfer, unless you have a wedge in your hand, just be happy with being on the green and putting for a birdie. if every golfer hit 12-13 greens a round their overall handicap would go down. If you squeeze a few of those shots inside of 10 Feet or are on a par 5 in 2 you’ve got yourself a couple of birdies. But the real key is that, if you leave your self 5-6 holes to just get up and down on, and convert let’s say on average 25%-50% for par you’ve got yourself a decent round of golf. The real problem with AM’s is we expect far to much. We watch sunday golf and only see the guys in the lead shooting darts. Try watching the other groups who are just playing regular tour golf. Your expectations will go down.

  9. larrybud

    Aug 4, 2015 at 10:23 pm

    Kinda flies in the face of Rory (and many others) saying “Conservative target, aggressive swing”.

  10. Progolfer

    Aug 4, 2015 at 8:41 pm

    I’m a professional golfer, and I don’t fire at every flag I see. Honestly, it’s all about the moment and the comfort I have over the shot. If I’m hitting it really well, I might be more confident and more aggressive than usual; if not, I will play more conservatively.

    Jack Nicklaus almost NEVER aimed at flagsticks. If a pin was on the right, he’d aim at the middle of the green and hit his fade– if it didn’t fade, he had a 20-footer; if he hit a perfect fade, he’d be close; if he faded it too much, he’d be near the right edge of the green with a 20-footer. The only time he’d fire at a flag was when the pin was on the left side, knowing if he hit is fade he’d still be on the green.

    Too many people in this game are taking a pre-conceived notion into the way they play, and it’s hurting them. Golf and life are about being in the present moment and doing what feels right. Stop forcing things, listen to your intuition, and it’ll all work out.

  11. Griiz01

    Aug 4, 2015 at 5:11 pm

    I’m not going to go in length. Especially since many have already expressed my sentiments. So, just being straight forward here. You are nuts! Must be the worse advise ever given on any golf medium in years.

  12. Matt

    Aug 4, 2015 at 9:53 am

    A good way to look at it is by proximity.
    PGA Tour players average proximity, which is about 5-6% the distance they have from the hole.

    100-125 yards: 6 yards
    125-150 yards: 7 yards

    When you are playing a course where the pin is 3 yards from the edge of the green. What’s more a better scenario from 110 yards? Aiming at the flag and bringing in a bunker, rough or water into your shot zone area. How about aim 3 yards more towards the center of the green and make sure you hit the green nearly all the time and giving yourself a birdie putt? If the worst situation from 110 yards out is 18 FT away for birdie I think a lot of players would take that.

    For a golfer who shoots 90, the average leave from the hole is about 12-15%. From 110 yards they average about 15 yards. If they aim at a flag that is 3 yards from the edge of the green. A BIG chunk of their area is going to be off the green. 90 golfer’s short game is typically not impressive.

  13. Shawn

    Aug 4, 2015 at 9:27 am

    Watch a few rounds of pro golf. Almost nobody fires at pins on most holes, because when they do they end up with a bunch of birdies and bogeys and shoot even par. That’s why a guy like Phil is so much fun to watch. He’s an outlier. Even on Sundays you’ve got guys within a few shots of the lead played steady golf. Pros rely on making an occasional long putt, birdies on par 5s, and only firing for pins that are set up perfect for it. Now one thing that can be lost in the above, is that they often know exactly where to hit on the green to feed the ball closer to the hole. AMs don’t often have that luxury, so that leaves them literally firing at sucker pins.

    What pros do very well though is distance control. They’re pin high all the time. With approach shots you deal with long/short and left/right. If you can eliminate on of those variables, your scores will go down dramatically. Now long/short is easier simply because you can measure distance. The best bang for the buck any golfer can get via a piece of equipment is a laser rangefinder. Start getting pin high and your putts will be shorter.

  14. Graham

    Aug 4, 2015 at 3:31 am

    Rich, I am sorry because I do enjoy most of the articles you write but this is perhaps the singlemost potentially harmful article to most golfers’ games that I have ever read on this site. I am surprised that the editors here allowed this to be published. At the moment this is an unsubstantiated assertion using numbers (I assume, as none were provided) from the PGA tour, without any breakdown of the math behind the assertion or how this applies to the average 15-handicap.

    This is very simple. Should you aim at more pins? Yes……. IF AND ONLY IF your score will benefit more due increased birdie frequency than it will suffer from a decrease in GIR. This is only true for some very small subsets of golfers. Golfers who have the accuracy and consistency to be shooting around par may benefit from increased aggressiveness, as they likely have the short game to ensure a high % of par saves when things go wrong. More birdie putts from inside 15 feet will result, but so too will short-sided chips, etc. If the increase in birdies helps more than the increase in missed greens hurts, then by all means fire away. But unless you are better than about a 5 handicap it’s pretty unlikely this will apply.

    Alternatively, a tiny group of amateurs who have good chipping/pitching abilities but are terrible at lag putting may find this strategy lowers the expected score on a hole. Otherwise, I am hard-pressed to find a general group of golfers for whom this advice does not hurt far more than it helps.

    Rich, in the future when you publish your views on golf strategy that people may read and take to heart, you please provide some numbers?

  15. 8thehardway

    Aug 4, 2015 at 1:24 am

    What if you play Pinnacles?

    Without trajectory it’s like trying to land a 747 on a helicopter pad. Spin and distance control probably factor in as well. Throw in accuracy and I’m down to wedges and a 9 iron; anything more and I’m happy to be in the same quadrant as a difficult pin position. In short, my game is more suited to St. Andrews than Augusta.

  16. mitch

    Aug 4, 2015 at 1:10 am

    the article says you should fire at more flags not shoot at every flag lol. and no GIR does not rule golf. par 5 scoring and playing par 4s half decent is how you can make up strokes against the field. there are of course exceptions to the rules such as David Toms getting an ace and ends up winning the PGA. consistent distance and flag hunting at the appropriate times will yield more chances to allow the player to get his putter going. the fields are so deep now, that if yo udon’t fire at flags someone else is going to and if they get an exceptional round, the passive smarter player will be packing their bags for the weekend. professional golfers tend to please the public by saying things like keeping it smooth and steady. play to the middle of the green. every pro, when presented with a chance to score is going to take it, partly because they have amazing short games, especially the ones who contend on the weekend, the plus side of being aggressive far out weighs missing an occasional green.

  17. Nathan

    Aug 3, 2015 at 9:26 pm

    First off, tour pros are not firing at flags all the time. They may fire at more flags with a 5, 6, or 7 iron in their hand than an amateur should, especially when conditions are soft, but with longer shots it is much more strategic than just “where is the flag.” Are there bunkers nearby, water, am I going to be short sided, how does the green break and where do I want to leave this putt. Second off, the article is premised on a huge, wrong assumption: that the average player has the short game to recover when they do miss the greens. Most amateurs, even very low handicaps, are hitting up to 9 greens per round, meaning they have to get up and down at least half the time. Tour pros scramble at a rate over 60%. That same statistic is less than 20% for non tour players. You might make one extra birdie firing at flags, but miss three more greens. Well your score is going to be higher than not making that birdie and hitting more greens. Even a terrible average putter will only three-putt 33% of the time, and yet a great weekend golf stands little chance of scrambling at 33%. If I knew I was going to get up and down 100% of the time, then of course we fire at every single flag. But the “will I birdie if I pull this off” to “will I bogey if I don’t” ratio really does not add up. Finally, the example in the article supports the opposite of the article’s presumption. The center of 16 is a huge target that funnels directly to the hole. If you pull it slightly, you are right at the hole and the green slopes back toward the flag from a lip coming off the bunker. If you push it, you are probably either catching the ridge and funneling down anyway, or up on the top right of the green. It is the classic example of not firing at a flag because you have many other options to make a good score on the hole. A better question would be should the average player fire at the flag on that hole when it is far right behind the bunker on the right. If they do, and leave themselves short-sided or in the bunker, the average player will put it past the hole, and down the ridge, leaving a very difficult two putt and more likely three putt. You are better off here forgetting the flag, aiming at the center of the green, and knowing that you are going to have that tough two putt back up to the flag, but have taken double off the scorecard and given yourself a good chance at par.

  18. Joe S

    Aug 3, 2015 at 7:21 pm

    Rich,

    I have to disagree here. I am a current 1.5 and seem to always play my best rounds when I’m playing for the middle of the green except with wedges. 10 handicaps and above need to aim for the middle all of the time. Here’s why: 6 pins are usually in the middle of the green, 6 short, 6 deep. At worst, the average guy is going to have no more than a 25 foot putt if he can successfully hit the middle. Going at flags means he will short side himself…and sometimes go over the green. Most high handicappers can putt tons better than they chip. Tons. Pelz has tons of research to back this up. Golf is hard.

    • Doc Todd

      Aug 4, 2015 at 8:06 am

      I was thinking the same as you Joe. I seem to have read (here on WRX, IIRC) an article stating that going for center of the green is going to help the amateur golfer more than going “for the pin.” Anecdotally, I tend to find myself short and left as my usual miss. This would tend to point me to hitting a little more club and aiming right side of the green, rather than the center, to go for center of green.

  19. Anthony

    Aug 3, 2015 at 6:46 pm

    I think a more appropriate name for the article would have involved something about being confident in your target. I’d rather be putting to a sucker pin then taking a penalty drop. I believe the old adage about your worst putt is better than your worst chip also holds true. (Unless of course data is present that shows amateurs are better off with a chip from thick rough rather than having a 35ft birdie putt.)

    Hitting greens is a huge confidence booster. Plus hitting greens eliminates the big number the majority of the time.

    Confidence in hitting the target is #1. I believe the point of this article is for amateurs to choose a more specific target (aka the pin, or a tree branch) instead of the target being a large green. Smaller target = smaller miss. Which leads to more GIRs which leads to more confidence, which leads to more agressive target picking (the pin) which leads to birdies.
    Just my 2¢

  20. gib15

    Aug 3, 2015 at 5:18 pm

    the irony of the article, to me at least, is that it’s title tells us to aim at the pin more, then we are given an example (the 16th at augusta) in which you do not fire at the pin, but yet have to fire at the middle of the green to get it close.
    I think that each situation is different, if you are playing an easier course with flatter greens, then sure you fire right at the pin, but sometimes on tougher courses with sloped greens, you need to fire away at the pin and feed it down.

    I agree totally that one should be target focused, but sometimes that target is not the flag. Jack Nicklaus was famous for choosing to start the ball off toward the fat part of the green and try to work the ball in from there, figuring that a missed shot would be safely on the putting green.

    for me, I really cannot hit a fade, so when a pin is tucked back right, it is useless for me to fire at that pin unless I have a 9 iron or wedge in, but on longer clubs I need to just play my draw and take a 20 footer to the left. not all of us have all the shots in the bag to just fire at every pin.

  21. Hellstorm

    Aug 3, 2015 at 5:10 pm

    I agree with Matt. That one or two degrees of error on a good amateurs shot while aiming at a pin could blow up a hole way more often than it will result in a short putt for birdie. Aiming at every pin puts the cart before the horse for almost all amateurs. On a good round for me, I might hit 10 gir or near gir and I’m making par or bogey most of the time and I aim at the center unless I’m inside 60 yards.

    Telling amateurs to aim at the pin more is just bad advice. If anybody is reading this, it’s probably a bad idea. Using tour player’s stats to validate an advice column for amateurs is kinda like using a cake recipe to bake cookies. Sure a lot of things are the same but they will come out terrible in the end.

  22. Matt

    Aug 3, 2015 at 4:26 pm

    “Tour players are essentially firing at flags all the time. When they don’t, it’s most likely because they have a funky lie and aren’t sure how the ball will react.”

    Tell that to Spieth who said the difference between going for the flag and not was because he had to hit a 5 iron over a 6 iron. He had a club, where ANY shot with that club or a longer club was basically a bail out shot to the center of the green.

    Plenty of other PGA Tour players have said many times they don’t aim at flags. Ben Hogan said if the ball ends up near the hole on #11 at Augusta National is because he pulled it left. One of the greatest ball strikers of all time has thrown your comment out the window.

    Even Ricky Fowler has been quoted in stating that the goal is to hit every green in regulation, that is the best way to lower the score.

    As for the rest of your article. Do you have actual polling data to prove that all amateurs aim at the center of the green? From my experience amateurs are too flag oriented. You make it seem like this magical reasoning of why PGA Tour players go for flags, which isn’t true, is the reason why Amateurs suck.

    Amateurs suck because they are magnitudes more inaccurate with the degree in which they miss shots and how often they do. Aiming at the flag does not cure a bad swing. In some instances aiming at the flag will just compound a bag swing by putting them in a position they shouldn’t be aiming at the flag to being with.

    Lets say a golfer, who has a slice, tries to go at the flag of a pin on the left side of the green that is guarded by water on the front left of the green and the left side. What service are you doing by telling that golfer to go at the flag?

    The golfer would have to end up aiming over the water and pray it curves enough. They would also have to hope they get one of their good contacts or they might end up short.

    Lets say the golfer aims at the center of the green. He might pull it a tad, which goes longer, so he might end up near the pin. He might end up on the green. He might end up right side of the green or off the right side of the green. In most instances he is not getting an additional penalty shot by stupidly aiming over the water.

    Puts some numbers to it.
    You aim at the flag. 50% of the the player hits it in the water. 25% he’s near the pin. 25% of the time he’s on the green but further away. Are you willing to take a 50% shot of having a giant blow up score just so you can have a 25% of being near the pin?

    Greens in Regulation rule the game of golf. Amateurs are not good enough to consistently hit it close. Might as well take the short game out and hazards out of play. If all amateurs could minimize the number of times they end up in bunkers, water hazards, or awkward short game shots as well as get on the green more often they would substantially lower their scores.

    • Robert

      Aug 3, 2015 at 6:34 pm

      I agree whole heartedly with your response Matt but for a second, I believed this article, haha. I know for a fact your rebuttal makes sense because I played a round on Saturday and shot an 83 (13.9 index) with 3 birdies, 4 pars, 9 bogies, a triple and a double along with 5 GIRs. If I even better my GIRs by two greens, depending on what hole it happens on that could potentially save me up to 7 shots. 76 over the course of a few rounds as opposed to 83, drops my index a hell of a lot more than my 3 birdies I had along with my lack of GIRs.

    • Wes

      Aug 3, 2015 at 10:23 pm

      Ben Hogan said that about 1 hole. There is an equally famous story where Ben was struggling with putting and his wife said “why don’t you hit it closer to the hole”. He played more aggressive from then on out.

      Fowler plays extremely aggressive. 17th at Sawgrass should be enough proof of that. It is Mickelson-Esque the way he played that risk reward course.

      Spieth aiming at every flag with 6 iron on down is still aggressive in my opinion. Aiming away from flags towards the fat of the green almost guarantees no birdies on Par 4’s and 3’s. I don’t think this article is meant to help the 15 handicap shoot 82. Low rounds are far more likely to come from great ballstriking rounds than great putting rounds.

      • Matt

        Aug 4, 2015 at 9:41 am

        Every play Sawgrass? Some of those greens have no bail out. #17 at sawgrass is 145 yards to a pretty large green. Ricky was playing to win and clearly on his game. This article doesn’t go into the fact that PGA Tour players could one day be on fire, or another day just wanting to just find the green.

        The article makes a blanketing statement which isn’t even good advice.

      • Hellstorm

        Aug 4, 2015 at 12:26 pm

        Wes, unless you are a tour pro or a scratch or better ball striker, I would bet that you make more birdies aiming for the center of the green outside of 70 yards than you would aiming for the pin on most holes. Most courses we scrubs play are not tucking pins and if they do, its not every hole. If you are aiming for the center, you are inevitably going to miss some and hit the ball towards the flag by accident. The whole point is, you might make one or two more birdies if you can strike the ball but its not going to help your score as a whole because if you are on this website, you dont have the short game to be saving par 70% of the time like the pros.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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