Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

What’s your tee time?

Published

on

I was always an early-morning man, a dew-sweeper. When I didn’t already have a tee time, I’d get to the course an hour before sunrise on a Saturday morning to see if I could get out as a single in one of the first groups.

Or I’d play the back nine with a few friends. We’d get to the 10th tee while it was still completely dark. We’d hit balls over the 18th green down the hill toward No. 13. When we could finally see the flight of a ball well enough to have an idea where it was going, we’d hit our tee shots on 10. By the time the sun rose, we’d be on 13 trying to find as many of the “warm-up balls” as we could.

Now that I’m older and my kids are out of the house, I no longer like to tee off with the sun barely breaking into the sky. I prefer a later time; a tee time that grants the opportunity for a full-night’s sleep, a leisurely cup of coffee, a chance to read the sports page, and to properly warm up.

I think an 8:30 tee time is just about ideal. And, not surprisingly, so do the people I play with at that hour. But golfers, this long-daylight time of the year, tee off anywhere from five in the morning until 6:30 in the evening.

I found Grady getting ready to play at 2:15 one recent Sunday afternoon.

[quote_box_center]“I like playing later,” he said. “The morning is for the early birds, I don’t usually get up before noon on the weekends.”[/quote_box_center]

“You’re single?” I asked.

“Now, yes. No kids either so my weekends are free. Tee times are no problem — if there’s not a big tournament. I got this time online an hour ago.”

It was a beautiful afternoon for golf and I wondered why it wasn’t more crowded.

[quote_box_center]“Seems like the regulars,” Grady said, “men’s club — and more serious golfers play really early. Then late morning you get guys who don’t play as much, or couples. In the afternoon though a lot of times, it’s wide open.”[/quote_box_center]

“You play by yourself?”

[quote_box_center]“Yeah, if no one else is here, I may play two balls. On some holes I may play three or four.”[/quote_box_center]

At a different course on a different day I met Blake and Austin. They were getting ready to play a higher-end daily-fee course.

“We wanted to play Pearl Dunes,” Blake said, “but they didn’t have anything open until later.” This was at 9:30 on a Sunday morning. “We pay more here” for the greens fee, he continued, “but we were able to get a time pretty easily.”

“What time do you think you’ll finish?” I asked with visions of the five-plus hour round they’d have to endure.

“Shouldn’t be too bad,” Austin answered, “it’s not that crowded. Depends on how we play, but I bet we’ll finish around 1:30.”

And who can complain about a four-hour round from a mid-morning tee time?

[quote_box_center]“I like to play in the afternoon when it’s warmer and the course has dried out. The beer tastes better then,” Denny told me at Shelter Grove as he and a couple of friends got ready to head to the first tee. “If it gets backed-up, we might skip around to an open hole and then come back around. Or we might play the front nine twice, we’ll just see how it goes.”[/quote_box_center]

“I love twilight golf,” Remy told me on a weekday afternoon in early June. “For one thing, it’s cheaper. For another, it usually isn’t packed. I got done working at 2, twilight starts at 3, and with any luck I’ll be done by 6:30.”

Not too long ago I played an afternoon round of golf with my youngest son. When we finished a little after 5 p.m. there was a couple on the first tee just heading out. I asked the man if he thought they’d finish the round before dark.

[quote_box_center]“I don’t know,” he answered. “But my girlfriend has only played a few times and we don’t want to bother anyone — or be bothered by anyone. We’ll play until it starts getting dark, or until the bugs start getting bad.”[/quote_box_center]

At dawn on Wednesday last week there were three foursomes waiting at the first tee at Spring Valley and another eight or 10 golfers on the practice green.

One of the guys, a heavy-set, deeply tanned man probably in his mid-60s, told me they played early every Wednesday. “We’re part of the senior men’s club,” he said. “We have tee times from 6 until 7:30, we get about 40 players most weeks. We’ll finish and have lunch, and I’ll be on my way home by 1.”

One guy was by himself in a cart on the 10th tee. “I’m just playing the back nine,” he said. “I’ll be done by 7:15, home and showered and in the office by 8:30.”

Some 12 hours later I was back at Spring Valley, waiting as a twosome made the turn to the homeward nine.

“We teed off at 5 and played through one foursome,” Graham said, “and there’s a two a couple of holes in front of us but they’re playing as fast as we are.”

“What time do you think you’ll finish?” I asked.

“Before dark. Everyone plays a little faster when the sun starts to set.”

“The carts have to be in by 8, we’ll make that no problem,” said Graham’s friend Kelly.

In the pro shop, Dustin behind the counter told me that the last tee time they’ll sell today is at 7 p.m. “You can play nine in 45 minutes if you hustle,” he said. “But usually no one starts much after 6:30. I doubt we’ll have anyone more.”

Just then, two guys walked in.

“You still get us out for a quick nine?” one asked.

And I realized as the two hurriedly paid and headed to the first tee, from dawn to dusk golfers have to take the opportunity to play whenever time, and daylight, permit.

What time of the day do you like to play? Let us know in the comments section below. And check out the inspirational story of one golfer trying to shoot the round of his life at 7-ironpress.com. The book is called A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth and you can get free shipping on the paperback with the code GOLFWRX, or $4 off the e-book when you enter the code GOLFWRX1 at check-out. Pre-Father’s Day delivery in the US if ordered by June 17.

Your Reaction?
  • 49
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL1
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP4
  • OB0
  • SHANK5

Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

20 Comments

20 Comments

  1. dr bloor

    Jun 14, 2015 at 9:09 pm

    Grady’s my soulmate. I love sneaking out after the morning rush but before the afternoon leagues tee off, solo. One to four balls depending on my mood. On one occasion I had about 45 minutes to myself on the 18th green to chip and putt. It’s heaven.

  2. C. Weber

    Jun 13, 2015 at 6:54 am

    I play in a group on the weekends that will tee off anytime between 7 and 8:30. Our course hosts a lot of tournaments but our Pro takes care of us letting us know what times are ahead of the tournament. During the week I get out 2 or 3 times usually Tues and Thurs at 3:30. Can get in 18 by 7pm then.

  3. Timbleking

    Jun 12, 2015 at 1:58 pm

    Being a father for now 7 weeks, I discovered the very early tee-times and I must say I like it. With my best friend, playing right after the greenkeepers is priceless. We play fast and good golf, and we do the same for the competitions.

  4. Jim

    Jun 12, 2015 at 2:06 am

    I hate mornings in general. I don’t even feel awake before about 1pm, and when my 65 year old father comes into town and wants to tee off at 7am and we compromise at 8:30, I am terrible. Joints feel unused, I’m sore, unfocused, 10 strokes over my usual, etc. By myself or with my wife, I start around 5pm and play 27 holes or so by 9pm, when it gets dark here. I love it, and can honestly say if I had to play golf before 10am any time I wanted to play golf, I simply would not play golf. A bonus that super twilight is 1/3rd the cost of a 6am rate, which is baffling to me.

  5. Tim

    Jun 11, 2015 at 5:09 am

    The British summer is great – once finished playing a match on the 22 hole at 10pm, the light really was fading by then. I think we teed of at 5 or 5:30. The Steward had kept the lights on in the clubhouse for us.

  6. trbgolfer

    Jun 10, 2015 at 11:12 pm

    I usually play late-morning/early-afternoon weekdays and I can usually play in 2 hours or so if I can play thru folks but usually it’s pretty clear by then. I live in OK and it is usually getting hot and humid then and most golfers are gone. Most people here like the early morning or late evening rounds so I try to get in the middle. I’m self-employed and have the ability to play twice a week like this. I’m blessed.

  7. FEV

    Jun 10, 2015 at 6:03 pm

    1st or 2nd tee time of the day. Some courses that can be 5:30 am

  8. RobG

    Jun 10, 2015 at 4:59 pm

    I prefer to play in the evenings when it’s a bit cooler and the course isn’t so busy. I rarely get a full 18 holes finished before dark but I am usually able to play 2 or 3 balls and hit a lot of practice shots around the greens and work on my short game so it doesn’t matter.

  9. Golfraven

    Jun 10, 2015 at 2:42 pm

    almost morning on weekends before the booking time – usually 7.45 ish. Late evening from 7.30 is also ok but hard if you have little ones and need to finish work.

  10. Christosterone

    Jun 10, 2015 at 1:09 pm

    I am in Texas and will only play at sunup(6:30-7:30 depending on time of year)…my goal is to be home showering by 10:30 to 11:30…anything over a 3 hours is out of the ordinary for these times

  11. Jacob

    Jun 10, 2015 at 12:56 pm

    Any time of the day is great..but I prefer real late rounds..at the end of the day ending at or right before dark..the course is never busy and you can really take your time and still finish 18 in 3.15 hrs..or I do really early..my wife sleeps in on the weekends. I’m generally up as soon as it gets light Our..so half my round is done before she wakes.

  12. Chad Rechlo

    Jun 10, 2015 at 12:56 pm

    100% a morning pegger, love the feeling of an 8:00 am tee time on the weekend.

  13. Tom Wishon

    Jun 10, 2015 at 12:34 pm

    After work and even after dinner when far fewer people are on the course. I always have liked practicing on course more than the range – play two balls on a hole and play “worst ball” against yourself, hit 2-3 extra shots here and there, try different putts from different places on the greens, take 30 mins to play a hole, etc. I’m fortunate that we live on a course so I can just watch for when the holes near the house are empty to jump out there.

  14. Moses

    Jun 10, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    I prefer to play in the afternoon and I usually play better because I’m looser. Plus it’s much cheaper. But since I live in LA I typically only play in the morning because you can easily see 5 1/2+ hr rounds anywhere after 1030am.

  15. ibroke90

    Jun 10, 2015 at 12:02 pm

    down here in south texas, i like playing early, as early as possible! temps start to rise by 10 and with the humidity it gets uncomfortable.

  16. Jeez Utz

    Jun 10, 2015 at 11:38 am

    First off at 8
    So no one is in front of me

  17. Double Mocha Man

    Jun 10, 2015 at 11:21 am

    I’m up at 6:30AM to make breakfast and get my teen off to school. Then I shower, sip a coffee, make my own breakfast and stretch… on the course by 9:15. Usually finish in under 4 hours so making happy hour is no problem. If I play in the afternoon then I take happy hour with me in the form of my infamous Italian Sports Drink in a canister… Pinot Grigio. It nicely lubricates the swing. Shot a 72 a couple weeks ago with ample lubrication.

  18. Chisag

    Jun 10, 2015 at 11:04 am

    I hate morning golf. My brain doesn’t work for a few hours after waking and my body doesn’t cooperate either. The few times I have been on golf trips the morning rounds are in the mid 80s and afternoon rounds in the low 70s. And for me, there is nothing quite like watching the sky change color and the sun start to set coming up the last few holes.

  19. ca1879

    Jun 10, 2015 at 10:36 am

    The very best time to play is just as soon as I can after my last round. We have a short season up here, and I like any time, anywhere.

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

on

As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 13
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

Published

on

B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

Your Reaction?
  • 14
  • LEGIT4
  • WOW1
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK11

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 16
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW2
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB2
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending