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10 reasons to add performance-tracking to your game

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There’s simply no denying the fact that statistics have taken over the game of golf. ShotLink has become as much a part of a PGA Tour event as equipment trucks, corporate tents and tournament-goers yelling “get in the hole!” after nearly every shot.

Indeed, it’s quite clear that the data revolution is here.

Thanks to affordable and quite useful technology, there are also a number of products that make it a reality for any player to access the kind of ShotLink-quality data and analysis that was previously only accessible to Tour pros. But, now that you have access to your data, what are you supposed to do with it? How does that help you play better and enjoy the game more?

Those are two questions we aim to answer day-in and day-out at Arccos Golf. One of our charges is to make “performance tracking” as much a part of the game as hybrids and spikeless shoes.

With that in mind, here are 10 reasons to add performance-tracking to your game. 

Know Your Distances

Arrcos-GWRX-Distance-Full

Understanding your average and longest distances are the obvious benefits of tracking your performance. Whether factoring in your average distance for a tee shot or seeking ultimate distance control on an approach shot to a tucked pin, knowing your distances is incredibly powerful.

Club Usage

How often do you use your 3 iron? Should you swap out a fairway wood for a hybrid? Are you considering adding an extra wedge to your bag? When factoring club usage into performance tracking, the information gained is usually surprising and always insightful.

Mark Your Misses

Arccos-GWRX-Accuracy-Full

Most golfers will agree that big changes often require little action. A simple alignment issue could very well be the reason you’re missing more greens than normal. Understanding percentage of misses — whether left, right, long or short — can help diagnose what’s causing them in the first place, letting you worry about the tweak needed to return you to the right path.

Hole History

We all have that hole. We either love it, or we despise it. Unfortunately for most of us, it’s usually the latter. Regardless, performance-tracking can give you a clearer picture of past performances on any given hole or course. Local knowledge is one of the most valuable tools of the trade in golf. Knowing how you’ve performed on a hole takes that knowledge one step further.

Goal Setting

Arccos-GWRX-Achievement

We all want to get better, don’t we? When it comes down to it, you’ll never improve — or even maintain — in this difficult game without fully understanding where you need to get better. Performance-tracking allows you to better understand where you need to improve and makes measuring that improvement a breeze so you can focus on achieving your golf goals.

Bragging Rights

Arccos-GWRX-Personal-Bests-Full

Did you blast a drive? Have you recorded your lowest round? Are you achieving your golf goals with help from performance tracking? Feel free to tell the world by sharing some of your progress on social media or showing your achievements to your friends.

Finding Your Ball

If you’re having trouble finding your ball, a performance tracker can aid in finding it. Put the guessing and aimless wandering to a minimum. Use your average distances and internal rangefinder functionality to find your ball quicker by zeroing in on the likely distance it traveled. The course rangers and everyone playing behind you will thank you.

Category Breakdown

Handicap indexes are great to summarize your complete game based on course slope and rating. Adding performance tracking to your game will unlock in-depth statistics and handicap information for all areas of your game, again helping you hone in on improvement areas and identify your strengths and weaknesses.

In-Depth Analytics

Arccos-GWRX-Full-Scorecard

With all that data captured seamlessly during play, you’ll receive concise and measurable statistics and analysis that go beyond the age-old methods. Performance-tracking captures every shot and aggregates your complete game.

Data Not Habit

Too often, we rely on habit to pick a club and hit a shot. The data acquired on your game when tracking your performance can help you make informed decisions while on the course all for the betterment of your game.

The easiest way to understand performance-tracking is to start at the beginning. It’s actually a concept that’s been in golf for quite some time. Charting your putts, fairways hit or missed and greens in regulation aren’t new techniques.

It’s how you gain that information that’s changed. It’s what you do with that information that’s new.

Whether using scorecards, spreadsheets, Arccos, or one of the many other shot-tracking apps or products, ensure that performance-tracking becomes a key part of your game. Your game will thank you.

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Ben Larsen serves as Strategic Content Manager at Arccos Golf. Prior to joining Team Arccos, Ben spent more than a decade in the sports media as a writer, editor, columnist and managing editor, including stints at ESPN, AmateurGolf.com and Back9Network. Having been bitten by the golf bug nearly 20 years ago, Ben takes great pride in honing his daughter's swing, saving par and never, under any circumstances laying up.

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Chris n

    Jun 15, 2015 at 9:25 am

    I’m actually interested in the arccos system, but having an “article” on the value of shot data written by a paid pr person from arccos doesn’t inspire confidence in the other information on this site. Most other sites that have “advertorial” content label it in some way. You should really have labeled this as sponsored content. I should have to read the author bio to see he works for arccos.

  2. Hellstorm

    Jun 12, 2015 at 5:35 pm

    I picked up GameGolf last year and the tapping the club is not really a big deal. In fact, I think it actually helped me develop more of a preshot routine which was much more scattered before. Once I am good with the club I’m hitting, I line up my shot, tap it on the belt and step in and hit. There really isn’t much to it. The stats have actually helped improve my game a little as well, especially on courses I play frequently. I like going home after I am finished playing and looking over the round. for those unfamiliar, you can edit shots out as well….so if you are hitting a 3/4 wedge or something that is not a full swing or a normal shot, you just edit that shot out so its not calculated in the averages. If you remember its a 3/4 wedge or 1/2 wedge, you can save it as that as well.

  3. ML

    Jun 11, 2015 at 8:09 pm

    I hit shots with my pitching wedge that range from 100 yards to 140

    It does no good for the guy that hits shots IMO unless I’m missing something

  4. Hunter

    Jun 10, 2015 at 11:58 pm

    It shows by the comments its not for everyone and that’s ok, but the people who like gadgets and want all the advantage they can get, go for it!! If it can be measured it can be managed has been a management strategy that many employ in day to day living, why not take this to our hobbies or ( obsessions… ) I play in a social group of 12 guys, 2 of us want one and cant wait to get an Arccos system and that probably where the system is in social golf. If 10 of the 12 wanted one they might not be $400

  5. Sean

    Jun 10, 2015 at 10:30 pm

    I am one of those that is not a proponent of keeping statistics. I know my yardages, my common misses, and when to take a risk, and when not to. In addition, one can get so caught up in statistics that one forgets to play golf. Also, whether it’s something on a phone, or something on one’s belt, it’s just one more gadget. I like to keep it simple: me, my clubs, and my rangefinder.

  6. Brian DeBlis

    Jun 10, 2015 at 6:15 pm

    It would be great if it ever recorded your shots. I have used for a month. Out of 10 rounds it has recorded 2 full rounds! I keep my phone in my pocket the whole time. I know the batteries are all good as I check before shots, but it still does not record! Very big disappointment

    • Ben Larsen

      Jun 11, 2015 at 11:34 am

      Hi Brian: Sorry to hear of your negative experience so far. At your convenience, please feel free to reach out to our Customer Experience team, which will diagnose the issue and get things optimized for you. You can reach them here: http://www.arccosgolf.com/pages/contact

  7. tony

    Jun 10, 2015 at 3:59 pm

    Pretty weak to limit it to only iOS platform users. I guess it makes it easier to decide if I’ll ever try it out.

  8. Tom

    Jun 10, 2015 at 7:52 am

    This are 10 reasons not to waste your time on timewasting gizmos…play golf with a clear head without thinking of anything.

    So you know your misses doesnt guarantee you will miss your next shot there….you hit your 7 iron 163 yards well i can tell you that your next 7 iron aint going that distance.

    I putted badly today let me work on my putting or my chipping was off let me work on it.Don t need an app for that.

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 10, 2015 at 8:51 am

      You’re right, you won’t always hit your club the same distance – that’s why AVERAGES are so important. This is especially true for those who are new to the game or just bad at eyeballing distances (like me). I don’t understand why so many golfers have such distaste for technology on the golf course. They all moan about how it slows down the pace of play or people get too wrapped up into their phones etc., etc., but those are blanket statements that don’t apply to everyone who turns to technology for help. I’ve had plenty of people try and tell me what to do or not to do on the golf course, and you know what? Unless it’s actually interfering with someone else, or in breach of the rules, it’s none of your business how I play the game. We all have our own way of doing things.

      Btw, your “10 reasons not to waste your time on timewasting gizmos” only amounted to 2. 2 reason not to waste time on timewasting gizmos, and they’re shaky reasons at best.

      • Tom

        Jun 10, 2015 at 10:36 am

        I was just giving you a general view of my opinion be free to use a rangefinder or whatever you wish as long as you are not slowing people down.

        No great players used these trevino…hogan ….palmer ….woods …..they learnt to hit the ball well by spending hours on the range not disecting their stats on a screen.

        • Kevin

          Jun 10, 2015 at 1:56 pm

          obviously those didnt use something like this because the technology wasnt there

  9. ParHunter

    Jun 10, 2015 at 6:40 am

    At first I thought 7) Ball Finder was a brilliant idea and in most cases I expect it to work nicely, however if you play a tree lined course it might not work. If you slice it into the trees it is likely the shot will be a lot shorter as it will have it a tree.

  10. KK

    Jun 9, 2015 at 11:30 pm

    Thanks for the insight!

  11. John Dougherty

    Jun 9, 2015 at 11:16 pm

    I use the Hole19 app, it’s free and gives me awesome stats! Love it!

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 10, 2015 at 8:55 am

      I use Golfshot and have enjoyed it for quite some time, but I recently switched from Android to iOS so I am having to adjust the way I do things ever so slightly. I do think Arccos and Game Golf have their place and can help you save a little bit of time (no more pulling out the phone to press a button for shot-tracking, then having to press another button when you get to your ball then select the club from a list, and finally hit yet another button), but the GPS apps offered on Android and iOS have really evolved into useful tools for those of us who care to use them.

  12. Nah

    Jun 9, 2015 at 7:48 pm

    $399 is a lot for an App

    • Brian

      Jun 10, 2015 at 7:09 am

      $299 on Amazon. $309 with a battery pack/charger combo and benefits The Dan Plan. Just saying. Still pricey.

  13. MHendon

    Jun 9, 2015 at 6:53 pm

    Give it to me for free and I’ll use it. Otherwise I can keep up with my most important stats pretty simply. FIR, GIR, Putts, score.

  14. Ben Larsen

    Jun 9, 2015 at 6:27 pm

    Hi Guys: Arccos doesn’t require tapping. Via Bluetooth and GPS technology, it requires only a one-time pairing process. Indeed, there are lower-tech ways to track your performance. The data and analysis you can gain from the newer tech, however, is what makes “Performance Tracking” a key piece to the puzzle.

  15. snowman

    Jun 9, 2015 at 6:07 pm

    it depends on the definition of It….. I think Arccos product does not require the ‘tapping’ and the “Game Golf” Product Does. As the article mentions there are also other lower-tech methods and apps that you can use to do similar tracking.

  16. Nolanski

    Jun 9, 2015 at 4:15 pm

    It sounds awesome. Im at work and speed read this article but do you have to tap it against your belt before each shot or something? Cause I’m a scatter brain and I’ll forget that half the time…

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 10, 2015 at 8:39 am

      Arccos does not require you to tap. However, it does require you to carry the club upside down until you’re ready to hit the shot. I’ve read that this can be annoying for some in the beginning. Game Golf requires a tap which I think would be a little easier to remember in some ways, but I don’t like the idea of having to wear something on my belt that could fall off or get in the way. Both have their own positives and negatives, and both require you to change your habits a little bit on the course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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