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The prices we pay for golf

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In the past few years, I’ve paid as much as $350 to play a round of golf and I’ve paid as little as $10.

Granted, the $350 round was a bucket-list reward and everything was immaculate (except my game that day), while the $10 round was super-twilight on an empty course racing to beat darkness, darkness eventually winning 2-up.

Those examples are at the far ends of the cost spectrum that is public golf in the United States today. At some resort and high-end daily fee courses, golfers routinely debit their cards to the tune of three figures for a prime tee time, while time-flexible, cost-conscious players leveraging Internet savings can find some almost miniscule rates at fully acceptable facilities.

Since I’m in the tourist-heavy (even at the start of summer heat) Palm Springs area, I found some out-of-town golfers to ask what they usually pay to play.

[quote_box_center]“More than I tell my wife,” said one man whose name and hometown are being withheld at his request. “Back home I play two courses — one charges around $60 on weekends with a cart included. The other’s a muni, I think we pay $42. Then a couple times in the summer we play one course that’s been a U.S. Open local qualifying site before — last year it was around $125, I think. ”[/quote_box_center]

Morris from Seattle said he plays Riverbend in Kent for around $50 riding.

[quote_box_center]”They have a walking rate that’s maybe $35, but I’ve got a sore back and, while I could walk it, I don’t want to be stuck out in the middle of the course when my back starts hurting, so I take a cart.”[/quote_box_center]

“I only play once a month, I just don’t have enough time,” Larry from Atlanta told me, “so it doesn’t bother me to pay top dollar. I don’t want to waste my time on a bad course.”

I got the opposite response from Dak who lives in Dallas. “I’d rather play twice for $35 each round than once for $70,” he said.

[quote_box_center]“Here’s what I do,” Walt from Wisconsin told me. “I play in a 9-hole league every Thursday, that’s $25 including weekly prize money. Then I try to find a deal online for the weekend and I can usually get something for $30 to walk. So, I pay like $50 a week for two days of golf. I’d spend more than that if I went to one Brewers game…”[/quote_box_center]

The Internet really has made finding open tee times and discounted golf infinitely easier than it was 20 years ago.

I took a look on one of the national Internet tee-time aggregators — I won’t name it since this story isn’t about them — to see rates golfers are paying around the country. I looked for 18-hole tee times at roughly 10:30 a.m. on a Saturday.

This isn’t a scientific survey. Some courses no doubt are booked solid or have tournaments so their rates didn’t show up; some courses don’t put their open tee-times online until 24 or 48 hours in advance. That time on a Saturday morning is considered prime-time at most courses, meaning those times are least likely to have discounts along with less availability. I don’t know anything (good or bad) about the course conditions — they may be pristine, or they may have aerated the greens yesterday.

I worked east-to-west, north-to-south, starting with what I figured would be the priciest golf, Long Island, N.Y. There, Saturday morning tee times between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. ran from $110 at Wind Watch to $45 at Rolling Oaks. Most other courses were in the $70-75 range. No tee times were listed for Bethpage, but there were plenty of open slots available.

In Charlotte, N.C., the Jones Course at Rock Barn had a few tee times between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. for $79, while the least expensive regulation course I found was the Lancaster Golf Club for $39. What do you get for that $39 you might wonder? Well, in this case you get nine of the 18 holes designed by Donald Ross in the 1930s!

In Dayton, Ohio, there were 104 tee times available between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. on a Saturday morning. Three of those cost more than $40, none more than $48; all the others were in the $20 and $30 range.

In New Orleans there were only 28 tee times available in my desired hour and they ran from a high of $80 at La Tour Golf Club to $28 at City Park New Orleans.

In Casper, Wy., there are only four golf courses to choose from (on the site I used) and only six tee times were available in the hour I wanted. The prices went from $34 to $68 and included the most expensive cart fee I’ve ever seen. The walking price at Casper Municipal is $34. The riding price is $64. Perhaps the cart comes with a case of imported beer?

The biggest discrepancy between greens fees that I found was in Phoenix. Searching Phoenix metro NE, I found Troon North Monument for $159 along with a couple of other Troon North courses for $155. On the opposite end of the price spectrum, 18 holes riding at McCormick Ranch Palm Course was only $30 with an Internet special, and in the summer heat even TPC Scottsdale, which hosts a PGA Tour event, was reduced to $59.

The conclusion? It’s a whole big golfing world out there, but based solely on the six markets I researched, there are plenty of tee times available even in weekend prime-time across a good spread of price points.

Now we just need to find out about that cart fee in Casper.

How much did you pay for your last round? Let us know in the comments section below. And check out the inspirational story of one golfer trying to shoot the round of his life at 7-ironpress.com. The book is called A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth and you can get free shipping on the paperback with the code GOLFWRX, or $4 off the e-book when you enter the code GOLFWRX1 at check-out. It’s a great Father’s Day gift if ordered before June 17.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. Tom Wishon

    Jun 17, 2015 at 12:02 pm

    After reading this article along with the comments, it is no wonder that golf participation began to decline in the late 90s and then accelerated once the recession hit. I have to believe one of the few things preventing the decline from being worse is the fact that golf can take a very strong hold on you once you get to a point you can play reasonably well and meet people with whom you enjoy playing.

    But when you look at so many golfers with kids, with ever increasing expenses, with incomes that haven’t kept pace with the increase in the cost of living, with non playing spouses who don’t wish to be left alone for 5-6 hrs 2x a week, and with a household income that doesn’t exceed $100K, this game is expensive and difficult to justify the cost to play regularly in the face of these challenges that so many people live with.

    I came into the game when green fees were $10. Annual adult green fee membership was $90. As a kid we could buy an annual green fee membership for $10/yr and only had parts of two days a week we could not play. Sure, incomes were much less on avg than today, but in relation to costs to play today vs today’s incomes, it was still a better deal back then. I look at $40 green fees today and I realize this is inexpensive for today, but such rates are the exception rather than the rule with so many daily fee courses north of $50. Let alone the feature developments for $80, $120 per round and more. Play 2x per week and even $40 round + a few buckets of balls is a real problem for the average household with kids and all the accompanying expenses of today.

    The muni in our town used to be $400/yr for unlimited play for adults for an 8 month season. Then some “visionaries” got into decision making roles and decided they needed to spend $500K to “upgrade” the course – changes that will make it a little nicer but which really were not needed. Hence the annual fee will go up to $1400/yr. While for someone who plays 2x a week for the 8 month season that’s still only @ $20/round, that’s still $1000/yr more cost to a good number of people and families that don’t have much extra space between income and total household expenses. Play will drop I have to believe. But those who can afford it will enjoy their rebuilt bunkers and new routing on 4 holes.

    With income inequality being what it is these days, I worry if the game is destined to revert only to the upper middle class and above, coupled with a few of the die hards who just can’t give it up and thus will sacrifice in other areas to be able to play. And I don’t really know what the solution is.

  2. Adam

    Jun 3, 2015 at 11:17 am

    I have only found one course that allows you to play only 9 holes in Vegas and you have to start prior to 7am. Otherwise, the average “resident rate” for is about $60-70 and even higher for a prime tee time. Tourists get screwed with much more premium rates unfortunately.

  3. ThirteenGreen

    Jun 3, 2015 at 7:56 am

    $20 for nine and $30 for 18 at my local course.

    There are two other 18 hole courses within about a 20 minute drive that are $40 and $45 respectively for 18 holes as well as a 9 hole par three course that is $13.50 for nine, $25 unlimited/day.

    Within a 30 minute drive there are dozens of other courses that range from $20 to $100 per 18 holes, and a $7 par three course, so lots of variety in my region. They are always running specials like two for one days, cheap twilight rates and two in a cart for $60 all the time.

  4. James

    Jun 3, 2015 at 12:34 am

    Ugh, why play Riverbend for $50?! There are so many nicer courses at the same price or cheaper.

  5. Miguel T.

    Jun 3, 2015 at 12:14 am

    I’m practically in golf heaven. Orlando, FL. First I’m a member of Disney’s Players club for $30 a month. That will get you any of the tournament rated courses for $15 after 3pm, and free range.
    I’m also an annual pass holder with Disney, and I can play their 9 hole walking course for free anytime. When I want to switch things around, I only use GolfNow, and I always get one of their hot deals tee time. I never pay more than $20 for any course. The deals are out there. I have about 50 courses to chose from within 15 miles radius, Golf Now Orlando area lists about 100 courses.

  6. Shane hensley

    Jun 2, 2015 at 11:03 pm

    Here is the problem with the cost, they say they want to encourage you golf however they really don’t. If I take my two boys 16 and 20 to a decent course I am in it for 210 on the weekend. The only discount the 16 year old a little.. The 20 year old is priced as an adult which is bs. They should discount up to 25 year olds. I have no problem paying more for myself. I can afford it.. The youth 25 and under really can’t. As far as private, give me a course for 2k per year unlimited golf in dfw for family and I am in

  7. Scooter McGavin

    Jun 2, 2015 at 2:38 pm

    As someone now living in the Washington DC metro region, that is the ONE thing I miss about living in Dayton, OH. The cheap golf. Being able to go out on the weekend and do 18 holes at a good course for under 20 bucks…. And the NICE courses are, like the author said, in the 40s, although I think when I last checked there might be a select few that go above that. Around DC, sure, there are cheap options, but not if you want a full size 18 hole course. They pretty much start in the 40s and go up from there.

  8. Shawn

    Jun 2, 2015 at 1:43 pm

    My buddy is the head pro at the Casper Muni. I sent him the link to the article and I’m working on getting an answer about the cart fees…

    • Shawn

      Jun 2, 2015 at 2:56 pm

      It appears your research is a little faulty – price to play 18 and ride at the Casper Muni is $49, walking is $34.

      • Tom HIll

        Jun 2, 2015 at 6:20 pm

        just checked again for this sunday june 7 and found it as I stated on golfnow.com – for 10:22 am

        • Shawn

          Jun 6, 2015 at 2:29 pm

          I pointed out to the guys in the shop what their website says. Their response is that the $30 is for 2 players, that each individual player is charged $15. My response is they may want to clarify things on their website. Unfortunately, the website as well as their prices are controlled by the city of Casper and they have no access to changing either.

  9. CC of Brewton

    Jun 2, 2015 at 1:19 pm

    $85 for membership
    $20 for unlimited range balls

  10. Jamie

    Jun 2, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    Rock Barn is a great golf course…played the Jackson course there and loved it. The Jones Championship course hosts a Senior PGA event each year last time I checked.

  11. Jim

    Jun 2, 2015 at 12:33 pm

    In my area of the Northeast, outside of Boston, we typically play public courses but hunt for the best course and best price available. Typically morning times are the most expensive but after 11 or after 1 you can get less expensive greens fees. The private courses typically charge a minimum of $3500 per year, not counting initiation fees, so that’s just too much for my wallet. At best I can play a premium course 1x per year at or near $100 per round. Luckily I can rely on friends who are country club members and play the really nicer courses occasionally too. Other than that it’s simply looking around for a good course with a good price.

  12. Tim

    Jun 2, 2015 at 11:26 am

    We have something like 70 courses within a 50-mile radius. One of them being a recent PGA Championship host (a very private/expensive club). Of those 70 there are a number of private clubs. Most however are muni or semi-private and all playable by the public.

    The MOST expensive with cart fee around here is about 85 bucks mid summer. The average cost WITH cart is around 40-50 bucks for 18 holes. We have some VERY nice tracks and even the courses that are in a bit rougher shape are usually very playable and never in the condition where you feel like the money was wasted.

  13. Sam

    Jun 2, 2015 at 11:22 am

    Sadly the 9-hole course in my town closed last summer. I could play 9 there walking for under 10$; go around twice for 15$.

    Lately I pay 18$ to walk 18 at Big Oak in Geneva, NY or 23$ with cart for 18 at Victor Hills: East. I play once a week and unless I’m on vacation I’d rather save money then pay for things I don’t use (like a clubhouse and cart beverage service etc.). I’ll always take a passable course with a good flow over an immaculate course with 3 groups per hole.

    When I was in college (’04-’08) we had a course near us that was “18” holes with two tee boxes per green. $10 with cart for Unlimited play after 5:00 and only 15$ for 9 during peak hours.

    It’s hard for me to justify paying more than 75$ dollars a round. Every year my fraternity has an Alumni Golf Tournament that is 75$; Includes 18 Holes with cart Scramble Format, Lunch, Unlimited Free Beer, Banquet Dinner and the chance to catch up with friends.

  14. George

    Jun 2, 2015 at 11:15 am

    I brought this up as a post on the forums last year. Its outrageous to think what a golf lover spends on the sport each year. I thankfully got around this by managing a golf course management group’s website and in return they provide me free golf at their 9 courses. If it wasn’t for this I would not be able to play 2-3 times per week and w/o that I wouldn’t have been able to improve so dramatically like I have. You have to play more often and practice more often to play better and with the price of golf I see why many of my friends and family only play 2-3 times a summer and never get any better! I don’t know the solution to this and its definitely not for everyone. Maybe golf courses can do a monthly memberships like fitness centers, one for riding and one for walking to grow the sport as well as get more money from the 2-3/yr guys.

  15. RI_Redneck

    Jun 2, 2015 at 11:09 am

    With the online booking service I (and Old Tom Morris) use there are almost always great deals between 11:30 and 1:30 each day. Apparently most golfers prefer to get tee times either before or after “Lunch Time” and courses have a lot of these that don’t get filled. I have played some nice courses for 50% (or more!) off many times by grabbing these tee times.

    BT

  16. Steve

    Jun 2, 2015 at 10:49 am

    I’m lucky that I live on the west coast of Florida and I have access to many golf courses. Summer rates kick in on May 1st and I can usually play a top notch golf course with a FL ID ranging from $20-45 dollars. I’m also lucky that my area has 5 Donald Ross golf courses and 3 are semi private, where they allow daily fee players access, one used to be the home of the PGA of America. I usually play 3x a week.

  17. Regan

    Jun 2, 2015 at 10:23 am

    I live in Southern New Zealand where golf courses are ample and the human population is small. My club membership is $300 per year for unlimited golf at a 6400 yard 18 hole course and within an hours drive there are 16 courses with the most expensive being the oldest course in the Southern Hemisphere for $45. Some courses are as low as $5 for 18 holes. It truly is a well kept secret!,…..until now.

  18. Double Mocha Man

    Jun 2, 2015 at 10:02 am

    I am fortunate to live in an area where there are nine golf courses of excellent quality all within a 25 minute drive. I could have a membership at one course but that would more or less obligate me to play that course and leave untouched all those other gems. Variety is the spice of golf. So I suck it up and fork out the individual greens fees so that I can find myself at 3 or 4 different courses each week. All the money I pay in greens fees… I can’t take it with me to the big course in the sky. Besides, greens fees are free up there, as are the post-round gin & tonics.

  19. Alex

    Jun 2, 2015 at 9:55 am

    Paid $66 to ride at Stonebridge Country Club in Goffstown, NH this past Saturday with a 7:42 a.m. tee time and the place was packed. Paid $31 to walk at West Bolton Golf Club in West Bolton, VT on Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend with a 10 a.m. tee time and hardly a soul on the course. WBGC is much more remote but both tracks were in great shape.

    So what does it all mean? I have no idea. All I know is that I could pay anywhere from $1 to $1000 a round and I’d still shoot 91. It’s all about finding the best value.

  20. Brian

    Jun 2, 2015 at 9:32 am

    Doesn’t anyone belong to a country club or golf course? I pay $895 a year for a country club membership that includes unlimited golf (cart fees extra). I can spend extra money on purchases like a new Scotty putter vs paying $50 a round 25+ times a year.

    • Brian

      Jun 2, 2015 at 10:35 am

      I live on my course so that should have been mentioned. And it’s hard so when I pay to go to the “nice” courses I tend to shoot lower scores.

      • KCCO

        Jun 2, 2015 at 11:57 am

        Same here….my course I belong to is rather difficult, very rarely do play somewhere else because of the convenience of my course. But like you usually shoot lower scores at other courses.

        Also previously mentioned, I’m fortunate to work part time at my country club, so that takes care of my membership. Would be very difficult to pay the price to play my course, and in the north it sucks shelling out money for the few months of the year you can’t play.

    • Dr. RosenRosen

      Jun 2, 2015 at 12:02 pm

      In my neck of the woods, the cheapest country club you’ll find is about $10,000 a year with some courses $25 – $40k a year. There are a few courses you can be a member of – not a private club – but those will still run you ~$5,000 a year.

    • BAA

      Jun 2, 2015 at 2:59 pm

      Yep.
      Approx. $5k for “annual” membership dues for 6 months @ my private club in Alberta, Canada. Carts, cost of actual club share & transfer fee are extra, of course. <4 hour rounds & open tee sheets make it worth every penny.

    • Scott

      Jun 3, 2015 at 2:34 pm

      Nothing like that around my house. $2000 is about the minimum for unlimited golf and cart, with restricted tee times.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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