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Why golf industry organizations must do more (and what they can do)

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When we look at the current state of golf, there are more questions than answers. There is more confusion than clarity. There are more initiatives than you can shake a golf club at, but there have been fewer results than there are believers that Dustin Johnson’s leave of absence was voluntary.

Against a backdrop of declining popularity and participation, we’re presented with confusing and seemingly irreconcilable behavior from our industry organizations, who are themselves experiencing varying fortunes.

And on the subject of fortunes, there are some curious realities in executive compensation and hard questions to be asked. For example, why does Joe Barrow of the First Tee reportedly earn $1 million annually? What has the CEO of the NGCOA (National Golf Course Owners Association) done to merit earning 10 percent of the organization’s net assets in annual compensation, the NGF’s (National Golf Foundation) nearly 10 percent?

In a recent article titled “Golf Industry Associations: A Tale of Two Cities,” Jim Koppenhaver, of golf consulting group Pellucid Corporation, offered an interesting take on all of the above. I reached out to hear more about his take on the current state of industry associations.

Koppenhaver’s contention is simple. The PGA Tour, USGA, and PGA of America are doing well as they have the mother’s milk of lucrative TV deals. The WGF, GCSAA, NGCOA, NGF— lacking those contracts — not so much. And based on the collective net assets of these non-profit organizations, it doesn’t seem like anyone’s change purse is totally devoid of coin to allocate to industry growth.

A word of explanation regarding some of the potentially lesser known acronyms:

The WGF is the World Golf Foundation. Its mission is to “develop and support initiatives that positively impact lives through the game of golf and its traditional values.”

The GCSAA is the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America. The organization “provides education, information and representation to more than 17,000 members in more than 72 countries. GCSAA’s mission is to serve its members, advance their profession and enhance the enjoyment, growth and vitality of the game of golf.”

The NGCOA (National Golf Course Owners Association). It “is the leading authority on the business of golf course ownership and management. The Association represents the industry’s key decision makers with ultimate responsibility for golf courses throughout the world.”

The NGF (National Golf Foundation) “is an objective and independent information resource dedicated to supporting all the people, companies, facilities and associations that earn their living in the golf business. NGF delivers market intelligence, insights and trends to fulfill its mission: To Help Golf Businesses Succeed.”

Koppenhaver’s data on the organizations’ net assets bears this out.

For the “best of times” group, net assets are both substantial and growing.

Koppenhaver-1-

For the “worst of times group,” much less so (save for the WGF’s strange 2012 cash infusion).

Koppenhaver-2-

The non-profit USGA recently struck a $56 million TV deal with Fox to add to its coffers. Likewise, the PGA of America cashed in thanks to its deal with CBS, and the PGA Tour, of course, as Koppenhaver writes, “Very intelligently locked in their partners at favorable…and long terms.”

The bottom line: these non-profit organizations are sitting on piles of cash that would make Scrooge McDuck blush.

Likewise, the “worst of times” crew has a bit more money in the bank than might be expected. For example, they had more than $50 million in their collective treasure chests in 2012.

As Koppenhaver writes:

[quote_box_center]“The final question that any reasonable person would ask here is, “What have the various industry Association heads done over the ’10-’13 period that has significantly advanced either the industry as a whole (NGF & WGF) or their specific constituency (NGCOA and WGF)?” Given that we’re not seeing exponential growth in the NA base of any of the orgs (WGF potentially excluded although without a breakdown of that $30M infusion it’s hard to tell) and the industry has declined in participants and rounds and basically held flat in Total Golf Facility Revenue, it doesn’t seem that the members contributing their hard-earned money to those Associations are getting much (any?) bang for their leadership buck?”[/quote_box_center]

Not having a good answer to this question and hoping there was something I was missing, I decided to ask the author of the report, as well as each of the organizations mentioned in it.

The PGA Tour declined to comment. The USGA, PGA of America, WGF, NGCOA and NGF all failed to respond to repeated inquiries.

The GCSAA provided this statement, per J.D. Dockstader, chief business development officer:

[quote_box_center]“There are some good things happening within the golf industry right now, and our revenues have increased consistently over the last four years. The association is continually exploring new models for membership growth, both within the U.S. And internationally, as well as greater industry collaboration, which is key to creating a critical mass of influence and economies of scale. Our relationship with other governing bodies is stronger than ever.”[/quote_box_center]

Koppenhaver, fortunately, was willing to discuss his findings at length.

What’s the problem here?

J.K. In any business that you’re in that’s declining, you need a.) A strategy and b.) money.

At the end of the Golf 20/20 conference, they passed the hat. Obviously they didn’t get a lot of takers … equipment manufacturers and golf course owners have the least cash of anybody. Their strategy has failed miserably. They can’t really set their feet and point themselves in a direction…this year it’s women, the next year it’s minorities…

You’re not going to get a great strategy out of asking 50 different people to do this as a 10th job.

Since Golf 20/20, we’re about 8 million golfers light of where we were; we’re about 60 million rounds lights of where we were. We have no strategy, and we still have no money. Fifteen years after this initiative, we’re actually going backwards at a faster pace than when we started, and everyone is still passing the hat to everyone else without a strategy.

Should the PGA Tour, USGA, and PGA of America be compelled to put forth cash to grow the game?

The big guys shouldn’t be compelled to contribute that money; they should feel a responsibility to.

If you look at the USGA and their pattern of giving, they give out hundreds of tiny grants. It’s more about PR…that’s not investing, that’s a PR campaign.

I tossed out the idea of a 1.5 percent tax [of each organization to fund initiatives].

It’s tens of millions of dollars that would be put into play for coming up with a strategy and actually deploying it. Feed your winners and starve your losers! Put five or six things in the marketplace. One or two of them work. You give them more money, shut down the others. Put four more in the hopper…

Do they care?

Institutions get to a certain size and it’s very hard to knock them off center. You’re not going to knock the USGA off center if they just stick to message and ignore. There’s no incentive for any of those organizations to help stabilize the game.

Something will have to shift in the funding mechanism or around public sentiment as it relates to the USGA and their willingness and ability to actually put real money and brains toward fixing the game rather than saying “our job is to maintain a handicap system, teach people how to grow grass, and to run tournaments.

What’s going on at the NGCOA?

Look at the track record of the NGCOA for the past few years. Can you identify any initiative or progress that they’ve made that has advanced the good of the members or impacted the industry?

I can’t think of many places like that where you give somebody a $100,000 raise. I would love to know what the rationale was for rewarding somebody a third more in base compensation. I had a guy from the NGCOA board rip me a new one. I said, “Bring me the facts.” I haven’t heard back from him.

What explains the relative absence of successful initiatives?

There hasn’t been concerted strategic information gathering conducting. We’ve lost 8 million golfers over the past decade and we still don’t have solid, quantitative reasons why we lost them, can they be reacquired, and what it is we would need to reacquire them.

You have to have some system for reviewing and prioritizing the ideas and what you’re going to put in the marketplace. Hack Golf: they got the ideas but no triage. They opened this website and let it lay in agony. Somebody has to sort through the crap: Here’s 1,000 ideas…of them, 100 have merit. We can only finance 10. The back end of that is you have to have reporting and tracking mechanisms.

We did this Get Golf Ready thing. It’s been in the market for like six years now. They’re not even having structured exit interviews. They have no mechanism for keeping track of [participants]: where they’re playing, how much they’re playing, how much money they’re spending. They’re simply sending them an email survey a year later and saying, “What was your impression of the program?”

I know you’re not high on the First Tee…

You take something like the First Tee—A colossal waste of resources, time, and money. We started out with noble intentions: We wanted more diversity in golf, not just ethnically but among the incomes. They go out and raise a ton of money. They go start building golf courses. They build courses in a time in which the golf industry already had too many courses.

When [Joe] Barrow and the boys put this up as a criteria of success, they’re saying, “We built this in a place where your golf course doesn’t reach…we built it in the inner cities.” But when charitable funding is taken away, it’s not self-sustaining.

From 2000 to 2005, they touted how many courses they were building. In 2005, voices like myself were finally heard saying, “This is stupid.” Now it’s changed to “lives touched.” Now they’ve “touched a million lives.” But what does golf have to do with that? I can touch a million lives through church…through the Boys & Girls Club.

The industry is just littered with this stuff. There needs to be accountability on the back end. We need to be willing to feed our winners and starve our losers.

What will sustained growth take?

Somebody has to fund this thing [programs] with real money for an extended period. We come up with a program, and we fund it for the first year—it’s a PR campaign. But you can’t build good programs banking on runaway success in year one. Good programs take time. There’s a process of refinement and making mistakes. You can’t do that when somebody simply writes you an adequate check for year one alone.

It’s going to take people who aren’t part of the good-old boy network…aren’t allied to everybody and their cousin. But nobody’s going to insert the Save the Golf Industry Czar, who isn’t aligned with all this crap.

What are the root issues here?

We don’t have very good financial accountability. We don’t have very good governance over CEO compensation as it relates to the organization and its productivity. And there’s this other stuff where things just go sideways for eons and nobody ever calls it out and says we either need to kill this conversation or we need to set firm timelines.

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GolfWRX Editor-in-Chief

22 Comments

22 Comments

  1. Mojo

    May 1, 2015 at 7:17 am

    Excellent article but nothing will change. All the time the public are paying through the nose for equipment that the professionals are getting free, high green fees and a rule book with hundreds of items in it you will see a big decline in people playing golf. At our club we have a junior team and we can’t put out a full team of 7 – not enough junior players, and one junior girl member tells you there is something seriously wrong with the way golf is being run by people with their hands in the kitty. Instead of supplying professionals with everything they need, yes I have seen them coming out of the tour vans loaded down with equipment and shoes, let juniors play for nothing and give them some equipment.

  2. Dave C.

    May 1, 2015 at 6:12 am

    The golf non profits are just like the regular non profits. Just looking for more money for its officers and key employees. I once interviewed for an accounting position for a huge national non profit. The local officer was making over 100K at the time, and was married to a successful attorney. When we discussed the salary of the open position, I was appalled to hear, they were looking for someone for $4-5 per hour. (This was thirty years ago.) The lady replied that they were looking for a community minded individual.

    I left that place with a bad taste. Non profit corporation only means an exemption from federal income taxes, not really any interest in the public well being. Ask the 1 million dollar CEO about it. Like politicians, their job is to keep their jobs.

    My opinion.

  3. Golfgirlrobin

    Apr 30, 2015 at 6:54 pm

    Nobody has convinced me yet that anything needs to be done at all. Golf has always been a niche sport and only those who need to make a buck off of it need sustained growth. The Tiger boom was never going to last, and lots of professional business people failed to grasp that. Courses went up with little thought to sustainability, prices went up simply because they could, and the market was flooded with product. The closing of one of these courses is not a tragedy, TaylorMade having trouble selling one of their 397 new club offerings every year is not a tragedy. That the number of golfers reverts to its historical norm is not the end of the sport.

  4. ComeOnSense

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:42 am

    Greed is what’s killing our game, Greed destroys everything in society ,and sadly, Greed is now moving faster and more powerful than before. A person or Organization that’s is full of Greed is consider to be “successful” in society.
    We can’t ignore that most of the people that left Golf came in because of Tiger Woods and a booming economy. And What the Golf club manufactures and Golf course builders did during that Boom?.They turn on their Greed switch, $400 for a driver and ,supposedly, upscale golf courses for $100. per rounds. But wait, I know why is that, it’s the #1 excuse for Greed mentality…. ‘Supply and Demand”.
    Demand in High? let’s jack the price up. This is not only in Golf but everything in society. Have you noticed when the demand is low the price it’s not lower,but actually higher? Funny how prices wont go down, Greed wont let it come down.
    Talking about “Jack’ the price up. Take 2 of our golf ambassadors , Jack & Arnie, who build golf courses. Do you see them building courses with green fees in the $30’s? Even now when Golf its hurting? Are they promoting the game of golf now that golf needs them the most? Omg, how there I say that of Jack & Arnie right?,but in my opinion, they are not helping by building these ” you cant afford fee” courses with Clubhouses so big ,that you can’t find the bathrooms even if you do a ‘google search”, Greed won’t let them ,or simple, they need more money…to be…successful…in golf and leave behind a.. Legacy… of HighEnd… HighPrice… GolfCourses…so when they passed away, they can leave Golf in the same place they found it when they first started playing …in the hands of those with Greed .
    Excuse my honesty.
    ” the moment you go to far right or left, you will miss the truth” Me

  5. Mad-Mex

    Apr 30, 2015 at 12:22 am

    Best article so far, by far, unfortunately like many CEO’s they don’t look at the bottom of the ladder, only at the bottom line. As long as the premium courses are full and still getting premium pay, they don’t care about the municipal course on which a break even day is a struggle.
    Golf companies have no incentive to bring down the price when you have people buying $500 dollar shafts and even grips are quickly surpassing the $10 per grip barrier.
    But there is plenty of blame to go around, for example:
    The 36 handicapper playing from the tips while using ill fitting equipment only because he saw Joe Pro using.
    The scratch player analyzing and describing EVERY single shot to his group
    The beer per hole player driving around like a moron
    And of course, the jam as many as I can so I can get a bigger cut Club Pro.

  6. GolferC

    Apr 30, 2015 at 12:21 am

    It is an interesting article and while I agree with most of it, I disagree about the section on “The First Tee”. I think having a program to bring kids into the game is huge, especially in a world where kids are losing out on baseball because it is too slow. Aren’t they the future customers? The First Tee makes the game fun and engaging for kids. It is about impacting lives, not just touching them. “But what does golf have to do with that” Do you play golf? Seriously. As a golfer, there are many valuable lessons it can teach us, especially in the form of adversity and perseverance, something it seems most successful people manage pretty well. Golf is the vehicle for reaching all kids, to reinforce honesty, integrity, sportsmanship, and others that too many adults on the golf course and in life could benefit from using a few of those lessons. Kids just don’t show up to learn to swing a club. What I have seen with The First Tee is it has introduced the game to kids who may not have ever given it a try and have later ended up in the golf industry or has become an avid golfer. Our home course has benefitted from the revenue created from parents giving golf a try because their kids are in the program and so they have been buying green fees, range balls, and lessons on a regular basis. Yes, the organization had a little greedy start, but at least they have recognized the downside and have positively emphasized partnering with local courses/ practice facilities.

  7. Mark

    Apr 29, 2015 at 11:42 pm

    I agree with everything that has been said but nobody ever seems to talks about the poor economic conditions of this country and unemployment, under employment or partime employment that so many have had to accept. Personally speaking, I belonged to a private club and played a lot of golf – and so did everyone else at the club. (by the way, golf took just as long to play then as it does now – it not like they extended an official round of golf to 25 holes). Everyone appeared to be doing well financially and enjoying life and playing golf. Then the firings, layoffs, downsizing, rightsizing, reorganizations or what ever bullshit name they’re calling it now. I had to resign from the club and quit golfing because my new job paid half of my previous one and I don’t have the flexibility or the time anymore. I’m not looking to cry the blues here I’m just saying there are more people like me and there’s nothing the “golf industry” people can do to change that.

  8. Shallowface

    Apr 29, 2015 at 9:45 pm

    One thing that Golf 20/20 suggested that no one has tried is the idea of allowing “twosomes only” during certain times of day or as a means for struggling operators to do something to stand out from the crowd.
    Most of the places and times I play twosomes dominate. But throw a foursome into the middle of the mix and everyone’s day is shot.
    There is no question that the biggest waste of time in this game is having to watch THREE other people play. But the possibility that the PGA of America may be the most resistant to change of any organization in the history of American business means that it is highly unlikely such a simple but effective idea would ever be tried.
    I keep hoping they will prove me wrong.

    • TR1PTIK

      Apr 30, 2015 at 8:24 am

      I’d even be okay with the foursomes so long as the course marshals would do something about the groups of 5 or 6! I still contend that one of the best ways to improve pace of play and save course operators some money is to provide some better education on etiquette – and perhaps the rules. My local muni doesn’t even outfit each cart with the necessary tools to fill in fairway divots – only on SOME of the tee boxes and no one uses it. I’m constantly fixing other people’s ball marks or having a good putt stop short because of one… There just needs to be more accountability at every level I guess. I mean, what would happen if golf courses actually started booting golfers that either disrupted pace of play or failed to take proper care of the course? None of it is that hard, but a lot of us here in America are just lazy and a touch ignorant (or arrogant – take your pick). We as a whole, just don’t seem to care enough to change what we’re doing and fix the problem.

      • Shallowface

        Apr 30, 2015 at 6:20 pm

        TR1PTIK, I hear ya, but I’ve been at this game for over 40 years. There have been attempts at educating people, but people have to want to be educated. I’ve seen it all, including etiquette posters hanging over the urinals. It’s just like fixing slow play on the Tour. All talk, no action.
        All we hear is that the biggest cause of people not playing is how long it takes to play. So much of that time is spent watching other people play, and I have suggested the simplest of fixes. I have heard there are courses in the UK that don’t allow foursomes until after 10 AM. That’s a great place to start.
        Now, if your course is booked solid with foursomes and everyone is happy (and there are still places like that, particularly in Florida), don’t change a thing. But if you are a struggling operator looking for an edge, try a Twosomes Only day one day a week and see what happens. What do you have to lose?

    • Shallowface

      May 5, 2015 at 10:26 am

      Taking this a step further, I’m sure you’re like me in that you get a lot of email special offers from courses trying to get your business. Virtually every one of these I’ve received recently have been “foursome specials.” Why can’t “the management” understand that between kids activities, work obligations and the modern day wife who really doesn’t understand why she has a problem with golf except she knows she’s supposed to because she saw it years ago on “Everybody Loves Raymond,” it has become nearly impossible to get four people to show up in the same place at the same time. Unless you have a list of ten or fifteen names to call, you’ve got a real problem.
      The answers don’t lie in the past. Try a “Twosomes Only” day. If it doesn’t work, you’re out nothing.

  9. Barry S.

    Apr 29, 2015 at 9:20 pm

    I suggest that all the Golf Industry Organizations be consolidated under the umbrella of the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation.

  10. UA Golfer

    Apr 29, 2015 at 6:54 pm

    Money talks…follow the money

  11. Golfer Steve

    Apr 29, 2015 at 6:54 pm

    The industry needs some changes.

  12. GMatt

    Apr 29, 2015 at 6:03 pm

    Excellent article, as some have said “follow the money” that’s a gross understatement given the USGA, PGA Tour and their operations….. I say take away their tax exempt status and let them report true earnings, once they are accountable to someone then maybe transparency will enlighten all

  13. michael

    Apr 29, 2015 at 3:00 pm

    Golf industry is like washington. Upper managements lips move and nothing comes out!

    I quit playing golf. t v commentators and thats all golf commentators are more concerned

    about being politically correct than telling the truth! tim fincham is a looser!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Lou

    Apr 29, 2015 at 2:47 pm

    This idea speaks a lot like the growing problem of the state of executive compensation that is sorely evident in business, sports, entertainment and politics. Extremely evident when we see the beggars with their collective hands in our pockets yet failing to connect with our desires. Ask around your golfing buddies how they really feel about the US Open being played on British open style courses. Fairly evident that a few Asian countries are creating a growth of the game for their future golf millionaires. A scattering of other countries have similar entries and now the PGA and & USGA are pushing Latin and South America into the fray. In my mind there is sincere doubt that this will help grow the game here in the US. We cannot maintain this past time as a spectator sport while losing the daily fee players and the daily fee players obviously do not like where the game is going.

  15. other paul

    Apr 29, 2015 at 2:24 pm

    One of your better articles Ben. Good job.

    • Marc

      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:49 pm

      I agree. Well done Ben. That was very well done.

  16. Scud

    Apr 29, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    I attended a few “Golf Summit” meetings in the late 80’s and early 90’s and they all had good intentions, but no strategy, no leadership, etc. And nothing has happened.

  17. Greg V

    Apr 29, 2015 at 1:21 pm

    Golf is a great game if you are walking and playing with 10 or less clubs that you can carry easily. But that game started to go out of style in the 1930’s with 14-club sets. It further eroded in the 1960’s and 1970’s with the advent of the electric cart.

    So, if most golf these days is played out of carts on courses that are too long to walk, it is not a beneficial game for exercise; recreation has turned into a social activity.

    Why grow the game? The PGA Tour has grown magnificently as a wealth generator for professionals. The USGA has benefited handsomely from its new TV contract. Who is hurting? Course operators and golf equipment companies.

    I would contend that golf course operators would benefit from a shorter ball, shorter course set-ups and game that is not so dependent upon high tech. Play would be faster, and easier from tee to green (but scores wouldn’t change much). But those very factors might hurt equipment sales. And, I suppose the PGA Tour benefits from pros who hit the ball over 300 yards. So there are major conflicts between the interests of each of these parties.

    Who is supposed to preside over the conflict? The USGA. But I contend that they have been asleep at the switch for decades. That is not hard to fathom – their membership is largely derived of wealth members of private clubs, where golf exists in a tiny bubble that is just fine, thank you very much.

    Until the membership composition is changed at the ruling body, the game is going to slip down the current path. And, I would argue that the current path is not healthy. But, largely, we are all victims of our desire to hit the ball longer and longer through technology, instead of improving our accuracy through practice.

  18. IowaHacker

    Apr 29, 2015 at 12:26 pm

    Great article. I think a lot of the principals not only apply to the golf industry, but to a lot of companies. When your upper management is not held accountable and stays in the same stagnant ways, no progress happens. It doesn’t matter if your in the golf, equipment, clothing, etc industry, constant innovation and progression is what moves industries forward. And don’t get me started on executive salaries…..since when does making 100 times more than your middle management make sense both financially and practicality wise.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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