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A simple scoring system to record statistics

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I frequently get asked the question, “What statistics can I use to measure my entire game?”

The issue is that while there are many advanced methods of statistics to use, they are often very cumbersome and golfers tend to forget to record their score, take too long to record the metrics, or end up inaccurately recording their metrics. That leads to a skewed analysis of their game.

I’ve done countless hours of research on the game, and usually have a pretty good idea on how I performed in each area after a round, but I still use certain metrics to assist with that analysis so I can schedule my practice accordingly.

One of the main scores I like to keep is a metric I created in the 2013 Pro Golf Synopsis called the 15/5 Score. The scoring system goes like this:

  • Give yourself +1 point if your par save is within 5 feet of the hole.
  • Give yourself +2 points if you have a birdie opportunity inside 15 feet of the hole.
  • Give yourself +3 points if you have an eagle opportunity inside 15 feet of the hole.
  • Take away -3 points if your par save is not within 5 feet of the hole.

For bogey shooters, you can alter this score by giving yourself +1 point if your bogey putt is within 5 feet of the hole and use that as the baseline.

I also only give one set of points for each hole. If I have a 12-foot birdie putt and hit the putt 6-feet past the cup, I only give myself +2 points for the birdie putt inside 15 feet.  This is important to note because we can better decipher our putting skill using this methodology. I will go into that later in this article.

Another thing I like to keep track of is what I call “impedes.” These are any of the following:

  • Ball goes O.B.
  • Ball goes into the water
  • Ball goes into a fairway bunker
  • Ball goes into the tall rough
  • Ball goes into the trees
  • Anytime I have to hit above, below or around a tree
  • Ball ends up in a divot
  • Ball is plugged in a greenside bunker
  • Ball goes into the greenside bunker on a par-3

I call them impedes because these are all shots where advancing the ball is impeded.  Even if I’m behind a tree and can fairly easily clear the tree and put the ball on the green, I consider that an impede because that tree is still obstructing my advancement of the ball to the hole. 

As far as the ball going into a divot, it is about things that impede your advancement to the hole, not about what is fair. You will find that when you can limit your impedes, you will often shoot a much better score than you typically would performing the same way from tee to green.

The other metrics I keep are:

  • Fairway Hit
  • Green In Regulation Hit
  • Scramble
  • Putts on the Hole

I am NOT a big fan of those metrics because they are woefully incomplete and misleading. But, combined with your total score, impedes and the 15/5 Score, we can better deduct how well we performed in certain parts of the game. These aren’t time consuming or cumbersome, but they can be very helpful metrics to record.  

Here is an analysis of the points system of a recent round I completed. I will give my analysis of each round as well:

Screen Shot 2015-03-18 at 5.09.08 PM

Click the table to enlarge.

With the 15/5 Score, typically +10 will equate to around even par. This in part makes the analytics fairly easy; if the 15/5 score is at +10 and I shot above par, then we know that it was likely due to short game and putting miscues. Conversely, if I shoot even par and have a 15/5 score of less than +10, then we know that I was likely getting hot with the putter. 

If I were to make a 25-foot putt for birdie, my 15/5 score would only be +1, but I still made the birdie. On the flip side, if I hit a chip shot to 3 feet and miss the putt and make bogey, my 15/5 score is still +1 and hence it helps dictate how well we are striking the ball versus how well we are putting.

In the scenario above, it is a little less clear since I shot 73 (2-over par), but had a 15/5 score of +6. This would indicate that my ball striking and short game/putting were in balance. Given that I shot a score of 2-over, my 15/5 score should have been around +6. 

My total score was 2-over, so in order to improve upon that it usually means that the ball striking has to improve. When looking at the driving, I hit 9 out of 14 fairways which is not bad. More importantly, I only had two impeded shots. Upon further inspection, I played those holes where I had an impeded shot at -1-under. Therefore, the impeded shots were not overly damaging and I think it is safe to say that my driving was fine for this round, or at least not the reason why I did not break par.

We can then get a better idea of the iron play by looking at the Greens In Regulation (GIR). Since I was hitting the driver fairly well, I should have a good amount of GIR — and I did end up hitting 11 out of 18 Greens. But just as important, we need to look at the corresponding 15/5 scores per hole because hitting it close is more important than finding the green. 

I hit a nice streak of hitting shots close on Nos. 8, 9 and 10 as I hit each shot inside 15 feet and converted the birdie try. Also, notice on the front nine that I had only 13 putts, which would be considered very good, but I had 19 putts on the back nine. That’s considered poor. However, I also hit 7 greens in regulation on the back nine. Furthermore, after the 10th hole, 5 out of the 6 GIR resulted in scores of +1 according to the 15/5 score, which means that I was hitting greens, but not hitting shots very close.

This gives an indication that my putting can stand room for improvement, but I had bigger issues with my performance with the irons. It was a bit windy that day, which makes it difficult to get approach shots close to the hole. But based on this round, I would say that iron play and putting should be given more focus.

Here’s a round from European Tour player Jamie Donaldson at the South Course at Torrey Pines:

Screen Shot 2015-03-18 at 5.16.34 PM

Click the table to enlarge.

We can see that Donaldson’s 15/5 Score was -1, while he shot even par for the round.  Again, since his 15/5 score was low for his score, that indicates that his short game shots around the green and/or his putting was likely very good. And we can see that was clearly the case as Donaldson only hit 5/14 fairways, 10/18 Greens in Regulation and had two impeded shots. 

On the flip side, he only had 27 putts and was 7 of 8 in scramble opportunities. We also see that Donaldson did not strike it well on the front nine, as his 15/5 Score was -10.  On the back nine, however, he was far better as his 15/5 score was +9. 

While I think there is the potential to have more accurate ways to analyze your entire game, I find the method I use to be very simple and practical. For bogey shooters, they can use the same type of 15/5 score, but they may want to alter the scoring system by 1 stroke (i.e. +2 points for a par putt inside 15 feet, +1 point for bogey putt inside 5 feet, etc). This still allows for the bogey golfer to accurately analyze their game, but also stresses the main point of the 15/5 Score — getting the ball closer to the hole.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. Gus

    Mar 25, 2015 at 3:39 pm

    Stats keeping should be at a minimum during a round. All I keep is Score / GIR or Score / Putts then after the round I can interpret the results.

    If my score is 5 on a par 5 with 3 putts then I know I reached the green in 2 and 3-putter for par. The good – I can teach a par 5 in 2 with 2 good shots. The bad – 3 putt. It doesn’t matter if I 3-putter within 15 feet or 25 feet – putting is putting and we should always 2-putt to finish.

    If my score was 1 putt on any given hole, then it’s a positive stat regardless if I was putting for a birdie or putting to save triple bogey.

    If I wanted to assign a scoring system for these results, it should be applied after the round, not during!

  2. Drew

    Mar 24, 2015 at 9:35 pm

    Good stuff. Not too complicated (despite what others are saying), and gives some good analysis. People could modify this to fit their game as well. Thanks Rich!

  3. Murph

    Mar 23, 2015 at 3:21 pm

    I am not entirely sold on how these statistics help an average golfer. I am not hitting it within 15 feet 90% of the time and I am happy to just be on the green or around the green close enough for a chip. I don’t need involved stats to tell me I need to drive the ball in the fairway or avoid penalty strokes. While I appreciate the benefit of stats for a more accomplished player, I just don’t get what they do for a bogey golfer or even a 10 handicap.

    • Jeremy

      Mar 23, 2015 at 8:25 pm

      With all due respect, not every article or tip is for every golfer. Golf goes to great lengths to quantify (to several decimal places) how good you are at hitting a little white ball around a park, and for some people it’s really fun to look at the statistics from a new angle. If you’re not that interested, perhaps you’ll never be all that good, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Most of us probably fall into that category. It’s all about enjoying yourself, in the end.

      That’s why lot of this has to do with being less hard on yourself as well. It enables you to say “shoot, if only that one aspect of my game hadn’t been off I’d have shot my best round ever.” Makes it easier to swallow that three putt on 18 when you feel like, overall, you’re pretty good at hitting that ball. Maybe then instead of going to the range and pounding balls one night next week you’ll just hit some putts instead, and next weekend it’ll all come together.

  4. Jafar

    Mar 23, 2015 at 11:22 am

    This isn’t bad. A good starting point for others to build off of.

    Thanks for sharing this. I will attempt to make my own scoring system to help analyze and tune parts of my game.

  5. dapadre

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:00 am

    This to me is analysis paralysis. This may be of great help to that borderline pro or aspiring pro, but the golf enthusiast I doubt. To be honest i have found GIR, Fairways hit, No. putts of greater importance and assistance. Also I used a new device from a friend that charted my shots and after a while I could see which shots were impeding my score of which I needed to work on.

    Also its says simple, Im sorry but I didnt find it simple.

  6. Sean

    Mar 22, 2015 at 6:48 pm

    I used to keep statistics, but found it really didn’t make a difference one way or the other. Now, I only keep my score. It also takes the pressure off if I miss a fairway, green or whatever. I don’t get caught up in my statistics and just play golf.

    • Connor

      Mar 23, 2015 at 1:13 am

      Word.

    • Murph

      Mar 23, 2015 at 3:24 pm

      I agree with you. I think keeping involved stats like this force your mind to focus on the negative things that can happen related to the shot you are about to hit. I do believe in FIR and GIR to a certain extent only because the higher those two numbers…..especially GIR…..the lower my score is.

  7. OG

    Mar 21, 2015 at 6:14 pm

    Good information, but it’s not too hard too figure out if I shoot 80 and hit 12 greens that my putter was off or didn’t get up and down well that round.

  8. JT

    Mar 21, 2015 at 4:21 pm

    Here is my simple system: score goes in the box for the hole, and then, in this same single box, I mark the following
    – check (hit), x (missed), or “OB” in top left for fairway
    – check, x, or OB in top right for green
    – number of putts in bottom right

    This gives new the most relevant stats, and it’s really fast so it keeps me focused on play – not stats or mechanics in round.

  9. ShakeNBake

    Mar 21, 2015 at 1:25 pm

    My last round, I shot even with a 15/5 score of -15 and 7 impediments. Does this mean I am secretly terrible?

  10. Jake Anderson

    Mar 21, 2015 at 10:15 am

    i am sorry, but this system is too complicated.
    i think it would suffice to keep, GIR, and O.B. (which type of shot went O.B.).

  11. RG

    Mar 21, 2015 at 5:16 am

    Check mark=fairway hit
    X= GIR
    U= Up and down
    F= Putt from fringe if holed
    B= Bunker shot holed
    Number of putts and distance
    Score on hole
    It will all fit in the boxes below your score

  12. Tom D

    Mar 21, 2015 at 12:21 am

    I don’t find counting putts very helpful. If I’m chipping onto the green and chipping well, I’ll get the ball close enough to make a 1-putt likely. However, if I’m getting on a lot of greens in regulation, I’m probably landing pretty far from the hole. This means that a 1-putt is very unlikely. In either case, the number of putts says more about my ball-striking than about my putting.

    To give me some real feedback on how I’m putting, I use a variation of “strokes gained – putting”. If my first putt is within 6ft of the hole, a 1-putt is zero strokes gained, a 2-putt is one stroke lost and a 3-putt is two strokes lost. If my first putt is over 6ft from the hole, a 1-putt is one stroke gained, a 2-putt is zero strokes gained and a 3-putt is one stroke lost. Add up all strokes gained and subtract all strokes lost. The total is how well I putted. A positive number is good, a negative number, not so good.

    As you get better, change the dividing line from 6ft to 10ft!

  13. chris franklin

    Mar 20, 2015 at 5:08 pm

    I wish my club had “cartboys”
    I’m tired of seeing those floozies

  14. Brutus

    Mar 20, 2015 at 2:22 pm

    I keep 2 stats the work for me. When they’re used in combo with the score I card for a hole, it tells me enough that when I look back a year later I can pretty much know exactly how I did. And it’s all estimating as I don’t want to get too anal for exact distances. First is how long the shot that found the green was. The second is the length of my first 2 putts and underline a putt that goes in.

    Say if the distance is 150, I can easily figure out if it was a GIR or had major problems just getting to 150 to hit the green. If it’s 5 yards from off the green I know if my approach(es) sucked. (Used with the putting numbers, I can tell how I’m chipping too.) I can tell all I need by the length of my first 2 putts and if I made one of them. If I 3 putt, I don’t really give a flip about how I “nailed that 3rd stroke from 2-1/2 feet”… since the first 2 tell where the problems of the 3 putt sin lies.

    I don’t see the need to “record” if my drives or approaches go right, left, or worse. Odds are most players know their general tendencies and to work to get accurate stats on that is a waste of time merely to confirm it. And if I don’t see many approaches written down from say outside 120 yards, then I know about where I’m beginning struggling with my irons.

    It shouldn’t hold up the game as it takes me less time to enter up to 3 numbers than for just 1 person in my group to tee off on the next tee… and I can still spot their drive.

    • Rich Hunt

      Mar 20, 2015 at 3:38 pm

      I don’t think it is too hard to figure out the distances of 15 feet and 5 feet. If you’re at 5-feet 4-inches and record it as 5-feet, I don’t see it as a travesty of inaccuracy. I think it is easy to record on the course and easy to remember if you’re recording it after the round.

  15. John

    Mar 20, 2015 at 2:20 pm

    I personally think stats tracking isn’t a reason for slow play. Most GPS apps can keep stats and inserting them takes about a minute, or about the time it takes to cart over from the previous green to the next tee. Slow play is because most people (and I’m guilty of this at times as well) think they’re better than they actually might be, and so each shot matters a bit more than it should. Tourney/professional play, I understand. But there’s absolutely no reason, unless you’re playing for your life, that you should take more than 30 seconds to read a simple putt. Especially when you’re just gonna blow it by 5 feet anyways.

  16. birdeez

    Mar 20, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    i really don’t see whats not simple about this.

    the explanation is long and involved, but the actual scoring of 15/5 system is as simple as it gets…..unless you were brought up on Common Core math, then you might have some trouble.

    i’ll be giving this a shot

  17. Mat

    Mar 20, 2015 at 12:21 pm

    Get GameGolf or Arccos and move on from 20th century stats.

    • Rich Hunt

      Mar 20, 2015 at 12:36 pm

      I don’t think the 15/5 Score is a ’20th century stat.’ Neither do I think impedes are ’20th century stats.’ I’m not a fan of GIR or even fairways hit. And I feel that with the 15/5 score and your actual score you can get a pretty good idea whether your ballstriking or putting/short game is the issue. But, if you are looking for more detail, then you can use impedes, fwys and GIR to get a better idea of how you performed in driving vs. iron play vs. short game shots around the green vs. putting.

  18. AGF

    Mar 20, 2015 at 11:47 am

    This is why it takes 4.5 hours+ to play golf: guys keeping ‘stats’ on the course. Please. If you have to do this, do it at home; it’s not hard to remember later and the other members of your foursome won’t think you’re a nut…

    • me

      Mar 20, 2015 at 12:25 pm

      No I think the guys that keep stats are the more serious golfers who are very self aware of their pace of play. The reason you get rounds that take 4.5+ hours is due to the people who don’t understand “ready golf” and stand there at the tee waiting for the guy who parred the last hole, but he’s too busy checking his cell phone. Or the guys who stop the cart girl and take 5 min to get beers. Or the ones who absolutely won’t hit until someone who is 1 yard further hits (even if on the opposite side of the fairway). Or the guys who take 10 minutes at the turn. Or the guy who shanks the ball, and then takes 3 or 4 “post shank” practice swings to diagnose what happened, and then spends all day looking for the ball he shanked.

      I see this stuff every weekend when I’m out with my friends and I find myself constantly saying, just go ahead and hit man. It’s super annoying. And then their excuse is that the people in front of them are slow so they can’t go anywhere.

      • Rich Hunt

        Mar 20, 2015 at 12:33 pm

        I agree with ‘me.’ Recently I had to play a 5-hour 45-minute round and we waited every shot. The guys I were paired up with only played golf about once a year. They certainly weren’t keeping their stats and we were waiting every shot anyway.

        I think the issue is people don’t understand the pace of play and how important it is to let faster players play thru. I think that is the very basic, rudimentary problem to the entire issue. The other big issues I see is that golf balls are expensive and courses are more designed to lose golf balls and people end up searching for them which takes time.

      • Mark Reischer

        Mar 20, 2015 at 5:23 pm

        There is a very good book written about pace of play. There are many factors that contribute to slow play and only 1 of them is the actual golfer. (I think it’s called the Pace of Play Bible, but I don’t remember 100%)

        Other factors include: tee time spacing, location of bathrooms/water stations, cart path routes, is there a beverage cart?, does the beverage cart drive around?, etc, etc

        Usually yes, people play slow but if all other issues were fixed at every single course, even the slow players wouldn’t be holding anybody up

    • rymail00

      Mar 21, 2015 at 6:05 pm

      Though I can’t see myself doing this every round, I can’t see how this would add extra time to around. Your marking 6-7 numbers on a scorecard along with your score. If your on the green putting you know if your 5 feet from the hole or outside of it. You don’t have to actually measure or anything that would add extra time. Your either inside the 5 or 15 or not.

      Its to bad. It just seems every article written brings WAAAAAAY more negative posts then then 90% of the threads on WRX. I wonder if it’s because people can use names different from their screen name. This is just a general statement and a response to the post I’m replying to.

  19. Roody

    Mar 20, 2015 at 11:38 am

    I think it’s simpler to, and prefer only tracking fairways (hit, left, right, miss), and number of putts. Any more than that and I feel it would take too long, and be more information than most of us would need anyways.

  20. Philip

    Mar 20, 2015 at 11:15 am

    I have no issue with stats as long as it takes no thought process to log and works against me staying in the zone. I’ll first add impedes and once I have incorporated that stat, I’ll work on adding the 15/5 or a my own take on it.

    Simple to see how you have down after a round.
    Like it, thanks

  21. Ryan O.

    Mar 20, 2015 at 11:05 am

    May be to complicated for most. I use the strokes gained system. Easy with this website http://www.strokesgainedgolf.com/?logged_in=Yes

    • Rich Hunt

      Mar 20, 2015 at 12:44 pm

      There is a multitude of issues with the ‘strokes gained’ formula as the shot gets further from the hole. I had this verified from a PhD in Economics, a PhD in Mathematics and an Ivy League statistics graduate. All of them liked the strokes gained metric for putting, but as the shot is further from the hole, there are too many unaccounted variables that can greatly offset the accuracy of the measurement. For instance, a shot from 100 yards from the rough on 1 hole may be greatly different in terms of difficulty than a shot from 100 yards on another hole. Or that roughly 25% of the par-4’s on Tour have no real benefit to hitting the ball further off the tee because of penalties (hazards, trees, bunkers, etc) that are easier to hit as the ball is hit further off the tee. Also, the conditions of the courses play a large factor as studies done by David Orr show, faster greens generally yield higher make percentages on the green which would greatly alter ‘strokes gained – putting’ from the average amateur that usually plays slower greens. I would imagine the same goes for other conditions as a round recorded by Steve Marino at a local muni course showed where Marino ‘only’ shot 68 (-4) and said (paraphrasing) ‘I would likely never go real low at a muni course because the conditions make the course too unpredictable.’

  22. Ryan S.

    Mar 20, 2015 at 10:33 am

    This is simple!?

    • me

      Mar 20, 2015 at 12:12 pm

      The scoring itself is pretty simple and shouldn’t hinder your round while playing. The analysis takes some brain power. But seems worth it if you really want to understand what’s going on with your game. I may give it a try for a few rounds

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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