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Wishon: What swing weight should your clubs be?

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In a previous article, I discussed the fitting of the shaft weight and mentioned that a discussion about the weight of a golf club should not only include shaft weight, but swing weight as well.

The reason? These two elements are so interrelated, and so important when it comes to helping golfers find clubs that will give them their best tempo, timing, rhythm and of course, their best shots.

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Before I dig in any further, let’s clarify two things:

  • Shaft weight is by far the biggest contributor to the total weight of the club, which is simply a measurement of how heavy a club is.
  • Swing weight is the measurement of the head-weight feel of a club. A club with a heavier swing weight will feel heavier to a golfer than one with a lighter swing weight, because its balance point is closer to the club head.

As with the fitting of the shaft weight, the club fitter also has to evaluate the golfer’s transition force, tempo, strength and any pre-determined feel preference the golfer may have when making the decision of what the swing weight of the clubs needs to be.

Both elements — shaft weight and swing weight — are influenced by the same golfer swing characteristics, which is why good club fitters will fit for both the shaft weight and the swing weight at the same time in the fitting process.

In the actual fitting process, however, the shaft weight comes first. This is because the test clubs required to focus on the fitting of shaft weight and swing weight together have to first be assembled with a shaft that the club fitter deems suitable from his analysis.

Shaft flex and bend-profile design is also important, and I’ll cover that in my next article. It’s why good club fitters think about weight and flex/bend profile simultaneously in the fitting process —  they have to in order to come up with candidate shafts to use in the test club hitting sessions.

Once the club fitter determines a shaft with suitable weight and the best flex/bend profile characteristics for the golfer’s swing characteristics, the matter of fitting for the swing weight is done by having the golfer hit shots with a test club while adding lead tape to the club head. Shot shape, on-center hit results, and certainly the feedback from the golfer are then assessed.

Usually, it goes like this. As the golfer hits shots with the test clubs, the fitter adds lead tape to the clubs heads — about two swing weight points at a time — while observing the ball flight and on-center hit performance.

The fitter is also asking the golfer questions such as:

  • How does your swing tempo/timing feel?
  • Do you sense that you are fighting any tendency to be too quick with your tempo?
  • Do you sense that you have to make more of an effort to swing the club?
  • Do you feel the presence of the club head during the swing enough?
  • Do you feel that the head feels a little too light, too heavy, about right?

The club fitter has to find that point at which the golfer begins to sense either a little better feel or begin to feel that his swing tempo and timing is better for the weight feel of the test clubs. That really is the key of a successful total weight/swing weight fitting — when the golfer does not have to consciously think about his swing tempo and timing.

It just happens.  

And because the swing weight fitting process has to also include the flex/bend profile and weight of the shaft, the fitter knows that he will be switching between the different shafts he has evaluated as suitable for the golfer while he is also performing the “add a little weight at a time to the club head” evaluation to determine the best head weight feel for the golfer.

This is a perfect example of how experienced club fitters will “multi-task” to evaluate separate, but related specs in the fitting process, all at the same time. It’s why good club fitters are good and others are not when it comes to simultaneously evaluating each of these separate but very much related fitting elements.

The goal in the swing weight fitting is to get the golfer to a point where he reports that the club head is starting to feel a little bit too heavy, or the club is starting to require a little more effort to swing than the golfer would prefer. At that point, the club fitter removes a little of the head weight. Then a few more shots are hit to determine if the golfer still senses the head weight feel to be too much, or just right.

It is possible that the golfer never indicates a distinct, positive feel preference for the weight feel of the test club even when the head weight is brought back from a point of feeling too heavy for the golfer. When this happens, the good club fitters know that they need to test the golfer with a different weight shaft and go through the head weight fitting process all over again.

In my previous story, I offered some basic shaft weight fitting guidelines:

  • Strong golfers/aggressive transitions/faster tempos = heavier shaft weights
  • Weaker golfers/smooth transitions/smooth tempos = lighter shaft weights

These are guidelines that work for most golfers, but are not 100 percent set in stone for all golfers.

It is not uncommon for strong/aggressive transition/faster tempo golfers to end up being better fit into lighter shafts, but with a higher swing weight. While it certainly is less common for weaker/smooth transition/smooth tempo golfers to do better with a heavier shaft, it is not impossible.

This is why a very experienced club fitter can be worth his weight in gold. With experience come more situations in which the fitter encounters golfers who deviate from the guidelines.

Good clubfitters also realize that the interaction of shaft weight and swing weight is such that it is always possible to find strong/aggressive transition/faster tempo golfers who achieve their best tempo consistency with a lighter shaft, but with a higher swing weight to prevent the light shaft from making the clubs feel too light in some manner.

After all, there are a lot of tour players who play well with 60-to-65-gram shafts in their drivers and fairway woods. And a heavier head weight feel is how this can happen, even though logic may say that the player is too strong and forceful to be fit into such a lightweight shaft.

Sidebar: MOI Matching as an Alternative to Swing Weight Matched Clubs

Matching all clubs in a set to their MOI has become a viable alternative to swing weight matching for many golfers. MOI matching may also be thought of roughly as building the clubs in a set to progressively increase swing weights from long to short irons in the set.

Candidates for MOI matching over swing weight matching can be golfers who:

  • Go in and out of consistency issues with the irons
  • Suffer from occasional-to-frequent bouts of pulling short iron shots offline
  • Sense less comfort and consistency with the short irons vs other irons in the set

For more information on MOI matching, visit: http://wishongolf.com/clubmakers/matching-golf-clubs-by-moi/

Sidebar: Don’t Get Trapped by a Specific Swing Weight

Remember, swing weight is NOT an actual measurement of weight as are grams, ounces or pounds. Swing weight is an arbitrary measurement of the relationship of weight in a golf club about the 14-inch fulcrum point on a swing weight scale.

When fitting swing weight, good club fitters really know that they are instead fitting for the head weight feel of the golf club. They are trying to find what head weight feel is going to bring about the best swing tempo and shot consistency for the golfer based on the length, shaft weight and grip weight of the clubs. Once that best head weight feel is found for the golfer, then the club fitter can perform a swing weight measurement to have as a guideline for the other clubs in the set, or as a baseline for taking the golfer into an MOI matched set.  

In short, the head weight feel of D2 in a club that is 45 inches with a 60-gram shaft and a 50-gram grip is not going to be the same head weight feel as D2 in a club that is 43.5 inches with an 80-gram shaft and 40-gram grip. Thus, golfers should not get locked into a particular swing weight when changing length, shaft weight, or grip weight but rather go through a new investigation into what head weight will bring about the best tempo and timing in the swing.  

Good club fitters know this, so once they choose the best length, shaft weight and grip preferred by the golfer, they fit for the best head weight feel and do not get locked into a specific swing weight.

Related

Tom Wishon

  1. What length should your clubs be?
  2. What lofts should your clubs be?
  3. Face angle is crucial for a proper fitting
  4. The best way to fit lie angle
  5. How to choose the right club head design
  6. Tom Wishon’s keys to set makeup
  7. Getting the right size grip, time after time
  8. What shaft weight should you play?
  9. What swing weight should your clubs be?
  10. What shaft flex should I use?

This story is part of a 10-part series from Tom Wishon on professional club fitting.

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Tom Wishon is a 40-year veteran of the golf equipment industry specializing in club head design, shaft performance analysis and club fitting research and development. He has been responsible for more than 50 different club head design firsts in his design career, including the first adjustable hosel device, as well as the first 0.830 COR fairway woods, hybrids and irons. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: February 2014 Tom served as a member of the Golf Digest Technical Advisory Panel, and has written several books on golf equipment including "The Search for the Perfect Golf Club" and "The Search for the Perfect Driver," which were selected as back-to-back winners of the 2006 and 2007 Golf Book of the Year by the International Network of Golf (ING), the largest organization of golf industry media professionals in the USA. He continues to teach and share his wealth of knowledge in custom club fitting through his latest book, "Common Sense Clubfitting: The Wishon Method," written for golf professionals and club makers to learn the latest techniques in accurate custom club fitting. Tom currently heads his own company, Tom Wishon Golf Technology, which specializes in the design of original, high-end custom golf equipment designs and club fitting research for independent custom club makers worldwide Click here to visit his site, wishongolf.com

26 Comments

26 Comments

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  4. Grace

    Aug 16, 2020 at 10:21 am

    I have Rogue x irons and I had the swing weight checked and every club has a different swing weight. I purchased these crabs new. Is that correct?
    Or should they be the same?

  5. greg

    Jul 14, 2016 at 3:25 am

    great article, Mr. wishon. what is your take on bridging the gap between shaft weights throughout the set. for example most people have a 55 -65 g weight shaft in their drivers and around 100-110g shafts in irons.would golfers in general see an improvement in consistency if there was a smaller difference in shaft weight throughout the set. Sergio Garcia plays a 100+ g shaft in his driver and his irons are in 120g shafts. would I benefit if I went from my 120g iron shafts to 90g shafts so that its not way too different in weight in comparison to my 70g driver shaft ?

  6. Joe

    Jun 11, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Tom, Great article. I grew up with traditional loft and lie theories that have been blown out of the water and proportion for that matter. I recently had a set of mp 64’s built with KBS tour S. 2degrees flat. Played well with them but they always seemed a little long at STD length as I am only 5-7″. I found myself choking up on most all the irons, including the PW, so I had them cut from the butt end 1/2inch. Love the way they feel as I always wanted a little lighter club, similar to the Cobra cavity backs I played years ago with graphite shafts, but know that I lost significant swing weight. ( most likely D3 to C8 or C9. ) Played a few rounds and love the overall weight but am probably getting a little quick. Is lead tape the answer?

  7. Devon

    Mar 18, 2015 at 12:03 am

    Hi Tom:

    I recently bought a set of Cobra amp cell pro muscle back irons. The clubs are factory swing weight D3 3-9. I am a tall guy (6’5″) with pretty fast club head speed, 115+ for driver, and 4 handicap. I have the DG X100s in the irons, and they are 1/2″ extended. I also have big hands, and have the Lamkin Oversize R.E.L. 3GEN ACE grips, which weigh 78 grams, as opposed to the factory New Decade MC weighing 46.5 g. By referencing another thread on this site (see below), I figure the longer, heavier shafts and heavier grips mean my clubs are 9 SW points lighter than factory, or about a C4. I also see that better players with faster swings might want a heavier swing weight, which means my ideal may be heavier than D3. That same thread suggests I need 2 grams of club head weight for 1 SW point. The way I read this, I need to add at least 18 grams to club head to get back to D3, and more if I want heavier than D3. That seems like a lot of lead tape. Two questions: 1) am I right in my calculation that I would need to add 18 grams to get back to D3 and more for higher than D3; and 2) if I am correct, is it wise to get 18+ grams in the head by adding lead tape, or is there a better way?

    Thanks so much for sharing your knowledge. Super helpful.

    http://www.golfwrx.com/forums/topic/44071-swing-weight-factors-in-relation-to-parts/

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 18, 2015 at 10:23 am

      Devon:

      Once a golfer begins to use very heavy grips or a substantial counterweight in the butt end of the shaft, you pretty much have to throw swingweight measurements out the window and rely strictly on experimenting with the headweight until you reach a point that the head does not feel too light or too heavy during the swing. And once that point is found, then for future reference you can take a swt measurement. But that swt measurement will only be pertinent for your specific combination of length + shaft weight + grip weight.

      When you use a very heavy grip, more times than not if you keep adding weight to the head to get the swingweight back up to what it was with a normal weight grip, the head weight feel will be too heavy. Hence the reason you have to go with a trial and experimentation process to add weight to the head until you get to a point the head weight feel is not too light or too heavy and not really aim at a specific swingweight measurement.

      This by the way, is one of the ways that MOI Matching of clubs can be better than using swingweight . With a very heavy grip, the MOI is not affected all that much because the increase in grip weight is at a point on the club closest to the MOI’s axis of rotation for its measurement. The idea would be to install the heavy grip, then start experimenting with adding weight to the head to set the MOI at the level it was in the clubs before the heavy grip installation. And in this case, you would not be adding all that much weight to the head to get to that same MOI level as before.

      • Devon

        Mar 18, 2015 at 9:52 pm

        Tom, thank you so much for responding. I would not have guessed that getting a lot heavier in butt end wouldn’t necessarily mean you have to add a ton of weight to the club head. I will say that, having yet to experiment with adding weight, my clubs actually feel pretty good without any added weight on club head, which would confirm what you are saying in your reply. I’m glad I asked, because I was envisioning this hideous glob of lead tape pasted all over the back of my beautiful new blades, and a 7 iron that weighed as much as a brick, and I was thinking that can’t be right. I’m super excited to go experiment now. Who knows, maybe I’ll even end up with an MOI matched set….:)

        Thanks again.

  8. sam

    Mar 6, 2015 at 8:26 pm

    hey Tom, again a great article.
    whats you thoughts on counterbalancing?
    i have a tank cruiser putter and find the counter weight is great for my stroke so how about the rest of the set?
    is it true with the weight more in the butt end it can help with swing plane? (slight over the top issues) “dropping” it inside a bit more and helping with a smoother transition?
    is it worth putting a weight in the butt of the driver for a trial?
    love to hear you thoughts and if you use this method yourself in certain builds?
    Thanks Tom keep up the great work!!

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 16, 2015 at 10:33 am

      SAM
      Absolutely we and many clubfitters see a very high percentage of golfers improve with the PUTTER when using a heavier counterweight in the butt end of the shaft, one that is most typically 80g to 100g. The effect is to put more weight in the hands to calm down the stroke action more to result in better distance control, a reduction in push/pull tendency and more on center hits for better overall putting consistency. No question about this.
      But with regard to use in full swing clubs, here is really is a trial and experimentation, hit or miss thing. No question some golfers have improved their clubhead speed and release with counterweights in the realm of 20 to 40g in the butt end of their full swing clubs. But we cannot really find a common thread in terms of what swing types are more prone to improvement with a counterweight in the full swing clubs. We’ve seen smooth swingers, slower speed players, aggressive swingers, higher speed players both improve and not improve with a counterweight.

      So for now, until we or someone else finds that common thread to better pinpoint who will and won;t improve from a counterweight in the full swing clubs, it is a matter of try it and see what happens but don’t get bummed if nothing happens.

  9. tlmck

    Mar 6, 2015 at 5:46 am

    Due to physical ailments, I have recently switched to ultralite graphite shafts in all my clubs with a heavier swingweight and am loving it. I take the club back slow with a slight pause at the top, and then just let gravity do the rest. Just effortless, pain free power. Even accounting for the stronger lofts on the new clubs, I have still picked up an honest 4 yards carry with the irons, and about 8 with the driver. My accuracy has not suffered either. I had actually tried swingweights down in the mid C range at first, but that seemed to required more effort to keep on target.

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 6, 2015 at 10:15 am

      TIMCK
      Absolutely a perfect example of how finding the right head feel does contribute to better swing timing and from it, the ability to maximize clubhead speed potential and shot consistency !! That’s precisely the value of working to find the best combination of total weight + headweight feel. Good for you that you went on this “search” and found YOUR best weight distribution in your clubs!

  10. Joe Golfer

    Mar 6, 2015 at 2:17 am

    @Tom Wishon. I would love to see an article giving suggestions on what shaft profile is best for which type of golfer.
    Nowadays we often hear about butt stiffness, middle of shaft stiffness, and tip stiffness (yes, I realize it can get much more complicated than just measuring at three areas, but I mention these three simply because shaft manufacturers often describe shafts in this manner rather that listing points all along the shaft).
    I think most of us know that a stiff tip shaft will give a lower ball flight and is generally for the faster swinging player who does not need help getting the ball into the air.
    I was wondering if you could offer some thoughts on the other two areas, the butt and middle profiles. For example, would a slower tempo player who still has decent swing speed like a soft butt, medium butt, or stiffer butt profile. Likewise for the mid point profile of the shaft.
    Some discussion on fast tempo players vs slower tempo players on these two aspects (butt and mid stiffness) of shaft profile would be quite interesting. Or are these areas simply personal preference, trial and error?
    I realize that not everybody fits into the same boat, and that there are exceptions to every rule, but it would still be interesting to hear your well-informed opinion on such matters as far as what the findings are in general for the majority of golfers.
    Always appreciate your articles.

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 6, 2015 at 10:19 am

      JoeG

      The next article in this series is about fitting for flex and bend profile of the shaft. But since these articles have to be short, I won’t be able to cover as much as I did a bit back when I did a three part article all about shafts and shaft fitting and golfer swing characteristics to shaft design spec relationships. Go here – http://www.golfwrx.com/author/tomwishon/ Scroll way down and you will see Part 1, 2, and 3 of this series of shaft articles. The info there will answer all your questions.

      Thanks for your interest for sure.

  11. theo

    Mar 5, 2015 at 10:12 pm

    The “don’t get trapped” sidebar is a great read. I’ve been in this ‘ether of confusion’ much of my golf life and this paragraph provides some clarity. I used to wear the “I’m a D3 guy” badge thought about having it tattoo’ed on my arm. But then I’d feel someone else “heavy” irons and change my allegiance on the spot. And when I trie to replicate the swingweight mine felt “different”. And on and on. This is a good explanation. I wish someone would come up with a new standard besides swingweight because it’s caused me much grief. Thanks Thomas.

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 6, 2015 at 10:30 am

      Theo

      Well there is for sure another way although as yet I won’t call it a “standard” – but it sure would be a much better way for golfers to empirically know how to always end up with the same swing feel when they switch specs like length, shaft weight, grip weight, head weight. It’s in the other brief sidebar about MOI MATCHING as an alternative to swingweight matching of clubs. There’s a link in that sidebar to an article we put together to explain MOI matching, what it is, how it works, why it is potentially a better way to reference swing feel in clubs than swingweight. There are a number of more technically aware clubfitters who have been making all clubs they fit and build to be MOI matched for several years now.

      Few have heard of it unless they hound this forum a lot – there have been a number of threads on WRX’s clubtech forum about MOI Matching. Few have heard of it as well because the OEMS don’t do it. Many think if the big companies don’t embrace something then it can’t be any good. There are several reasons they haven’t even though I can assure you they know of it and a couple have even commissioned a serious “look see” into it.

      First, all the OEMs make their clubs to a series of standard specs so their clubs can be shipped to all the retail golf outlets to be sold off the rack. They do this because this is the only way to sell the highest volume of clubs. Hence all the clubs sold off the rack can only be made to one swingweight as a std spec. MOI matching has no advantage if you just pick one MOI and make all your clubs to that single MOI measurement. It has to be fit to each golfer just like swingweight should – based on the golfer’s strength + swing force + sense of feel for their swing timing and rhythm. So for an OEM to go with MOI matching, it would not do anything better for them since they have to make their clubs to one series of std specs.

      Second reason the OEMs won’t do MOI matching is because it would take a HUGE educational effort on their part to convince the millions of golfers who are so used to swingweight matched clubs that it is better. It would only take ten golfers putting their MOI matched clubs on a swingweight scale and wondering negatively why all the clubs are different swingweights before an OEM would toss in the towel and go back to swingweight.

      Thanks for your interest !

  12. Hippocamp

    Mar 5, 2015 at 1:36 pm

    Thanks for a great article, Tom.

    Any advice on how to deal with these new shafts with super high balance point? Just swapped a stock 65g 3W shaft for an Aldila Tour Blue 85g shaft with the idea of shortening the club by 1/2″ or so. Initially cut the Tour Blue to stock 43″ and was puzzled that the club actually had a lower SW with the shaft that weighed 20g more – at exactly the same length. Then it became clear that most of that extra weight was near the butt in the Tour Blue.

    Anyway, made it clear that the distribution of weight in the shaft is more important than total weight for determining the SW of the club.

  13. Curt

    Mar 5, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    Takes some cajones to call out one of the best in the Biz………

  14. ken

    Mar 5, 2015 at 12:40 pm

    I don’t know a darned thing about swing weight. Nor do I care to know.
    When I pick up the club at the gold shop and awing it few times, I immediately know whether I like the feel and weight of the club or not….
    IN fact I would tell the club fitter “don’t bother telling me the swing weight. You’ll just confuse me.”

  15. Jeff Borders

    Mar 5, 2015 at 12:32 pm

    But aren’t most club heads around 200-205g? I think the shaft weight is a lot more variable with today’s raw head weight. I could go with a shaft in the 50 gram range all the way up to 80+ grams.

  16. Marni Ines

    Mar 5, 2015 at 11:38 am

    Have to disagree with the comment that shaft weight is, by far, the largest contributor to the total weight of the club, because, it is not. The head is BY FAR, the largest contributor to the total weight of the club.

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 5, 2015 at 1:00 pm

      Marni
      Let me explain why the shaft weight most definitely IS the biggest contributor to the total weight. Let’s talk driver just for sake of the explanation but it is true for all other clubs as well. Graphite shafts can be found for drivers that weigh as little as 39g up to 90g. We won’t include steel here because far less than 1% of all golfers play with steel shafts in the driver today. So that is a 51g range in the shaft weight.

      The vast majority of grips for men exist between mid 40s and mid 50s in gram weight. Sure there are some exceptions to this but they are very seldom used for the vast majority of golfers. So grip weight exists in only a 10g or so high to low range.

      The headweight is what is used to control the final swingweight of the club. Let’s say you build two drivers, one with a 39g shaft and one with a 90g shaft. To achieve a D1 swingweight for example at a length of 44″ with a normal 50g grip, with the 39g shaft the head has to weigh 213g and that club has a total weight of 302g. To achieve a D1 swingweight at 44″ with the same 50g grip with the 90g shaft, the head has to weigh 200g which brings this club to a total weight of 340g.

      So for a 51g range in shaft weight, the head weight only ranges by 13g to achieve the same swingweight at the same length with the same grip. But the total weight is different by 38g, which is far more than the head weight range.

      Hence shaft weight is the major determinant of the total weight of any club. Thanks for asking about this so I could have the chance to explain this more clearly.

      • NaborsX

        Mar 6, 2015 at 12:49 pm

        Fantastic info. Really appreciate you sharing the knowledge!

      • John P

        Mar 6, 2015 at 4:51 pm

        As a swinger of a set 770 CFE’s I love my Wishons. However, I think head weight is the largest contributed to TOTAL weight of a club. In the example the heads are 70.5 and 58.8 percent of the TOTAL club weight. Maybe the shaft is a big contributor to SWING WEIGHT because the weight difference is distributed along the length of the club. Love these articles, keep them coming!

      • PJM

        Mar 8, 2015 at 5:18 am

        Hi Tom. Thanks for the article and the explanation. I think your comment that the shaft is the major determinant of the total weight is clearer than your earlier comment that the shaft is the biggest contributor to the total weight. I agree with Marni’s interpretation that the heaviest component (i.e., the club head) is the biggest contributor to the total weight, but understand that you are saying that there is much greater variation in the weight of the shaft than other components. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge and experience.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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