Opinion & Analysis
Best Ball-Strikers (Part 1): Tommy Bolt and Moe Norman
I was asked by the editorial staff of GolfWRX to write about some of the “names” I’ve played with during my 40 years in the golf industry. Initially, I declined. I was uncomfortable, because it sounded like an excuse to name drop. They told me if I wrote it they would give their review and if it didn’t sound right they wouldn’t run it.
So as I proceed, I don’t know whether this story will publish or not.
Editor’s Note: Who wouldn’t have published this? Read on.
To start, one doesn’t enter the golf equipment industry with dreams of playing a lot. I have known a few salesmen who always found time to play, and they also found jobs outside the industry. Personally speaking, for the better part of 10 years, I averaged less than 5-to-6 rounds a year. At my skill level this meant ceremonial golf, an occasional decent shot and no overall quality.
I have come up with a foursome I played with in a variety of situations over the years and they each left a lasting impression for different reasons. I’ll start with a disclaimer: I did not include Arnold Palmer, who I have played with 5-to-6 times. It’s because he is Arnold Palmer, the King of my era and my personal golf hero. I was so enthralled by the opportunity to play with him that it wasn’t really golf. All I can remember is being in his presence and that was enough.
So in alphabetical order, here it goes.
Tommy Bolt
Tommy Bolt won 15 times on the PGA Tour, including the 1958 U.S. Open.
Prior to the annual PGA Merchandise Show in Florida, my good friend Jim Achenbach of Golfweek would contact me and Bob Cantin from Ping to set up a game with Bolt at Black Diamond, a 36-hole facility in Lecanto, Fla., about 90 minutes northwest of Orlando. My weak memory would place this in the late 90’s when Bolt was older than 80.
When I flash back, I always have the same memory and that was his swing. Bolt didn’t so much as swing the club back as he placed it in a perfect position at the top. There was no unnecessary movement, just this magnificent swing that produced a shot quality I could only dream about. I remember asking him if he minded my standing behind him because I just wanted to watch every detail of that swing. He was a joy to play with, told us stories… I’ll never forget that swing.
Moe Norman
Moe Norman won 55 times on the Canadian Tour and in other Canadian golf events.
Back in the 90’s, there was a club in Titusville, Fla., called Royal Oak Golf Club and it was owned at the time by the Canadian PGA. As such, Moe had access and it became his winter headquarters. My mom lived adjacent to the 13th hole, and with Titusville being about 40 miles from Orlando I made it a point to go to the PGAM Show early (and sometimes stay) so I could hang out with her and two of my brothers who lived nearby. The driving range was a short walk from her house and there was Moe.
Moe has been described as autistic and a savant, but neither is correct. If you’re interested in his life I suggest you secure a copy of “Moe and Me” by the excellent Canadian writer Lorne Rubenstein.
I believe there are two kinds of ball strikers, related but slightly different. The first is the player on the course envisioning and hitting one shot, then moving to a completely different shot. The second is the guy on the range who hits tens, maybe hundreds of shots at a target with the same club. Obviously there is a relationship, as Moe was a great on-course player, but on the range he was otherworldly. We used to play nine holes in the late evening and he would play two balls, worst ball and break par — and he wasn’t a great putter. I say “we” played, but half the time I don’t think he realized I was there. Still, I never missed the chance.
I see his name used on the Internet as exemplifying some kind of mythical golf swing that, if emulated, would be “the answer.”
I made Moe’s clubs. If a standard swing weight is D2, his would have been F-something and the grips were jumbo plus. You see, Moe was strong and I mean freaky strong. It was as if his body was protecting the damage done in his childhood sleighing accident. He could grab you by the upper arm and with seemingly little effort take you to your knees. So for all those Moe Norman aficionados, I suggest starting with clubs four times heavier than normal and being abnormally strong.
There are a million ball-hitting stories, and I’ll give you a few.
Moe was at a different range, Jonathan’s Landing, and I happened to be there. He was hitting drivers off the deck and would announce draw or fade and how high. He always told me he played by height! Now, I’m not saying when he called for a slight draw at 40 feet it went exactly that height, but it drew and it was about twice as high as the one he called at 20 feet and this was off the deck!
When Moe hit drivers off a tee, he would literally hit a bucket and never move the tee. Like all great ball strikers, his shots had a different, quiet sound. Maybe my favorite happened one evening at Royal Oak. It was dusk and he was there alone hitting little pitches at a flag stuck in the ground (the place was not plush). I was the only other person and as he hit shots he talked to me, as he often did while hitting balls.
“I play by height,” he said. “This one 4 feet, this one 8 feet.”
He hit shots from very mediocre lies to this flagstick in the dusk. He hit maybe 30 or 40 balls and 11 hit the flag and I thought another 20 were going to. It was incredible, and I’ll never forget it.
Moe had a few great lines, and one afternoon he said one of the wisest things about practice I’ve ever heard. It was probably the mid 90’s, PGAM Show time, and I’d talked the Haney Ranch gang — all the instructors and Hank — into coming over to Titusville to watch Moe hit balls. I was the club fitter at Haney Ranch at the time.
Moe was hitting 6 irons, just one perfect shot after another, and then hit one a bit fat. He was rapid fire, so when one of the instructors, Tracy Philips, asked him about what he thought about the fat shot, it was two or three balls later. Moe stopped, took a swig of his ever present Coke and said:
“What did I think?” Moe said. “That was a bad shot. I don’t think about bad shots. I only think about good shots.”
He put down the Coke and went on with perfection.
He actually repeated himself, as was his syntax in those days, but I’ll never forget the words. How many of us get tied up analyzing our bad shots and don’t learn from the good ones.
Thanks, Moe!
Related: Best Ball-Strikers (Part 2): Lee Trevino and Tom Watson.
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We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.
We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.
Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.
Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.
Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.
Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
Past Winners at the Masters
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
- 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
- 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
- 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
- 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
- 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Augusta National
Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
- Corey Conners (+0.99)
- Shane Lowry (+0.88)
- Tony Finau (+0.85)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.85)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.
Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):
- Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
- Jon Rahm (+2.28)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
- Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
- Justin Rose (+1.85)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
- Russell Henley (+1.60)
Par 4 Scoring Average
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
- Chris Kirk (+3.92)
- Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
- Peter Malnati (+3.93)
- Xander Schauffele (+3.93)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
- Patrick Reed (+0.61)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
- Lucas Glover (+0.51)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)
Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass
The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:
- Justin Rose (+1.43)
- Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
- Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
- Cameron Smith (+0.70)
- Patrick Reed (+0.70)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Will Zalatoris
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Rory McIlroy
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Chris Kirk
- Keegan Bradley
- Wyndham Clark
- Sahith Theegala
- Russell Henley
- Collin Morikawa
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Reed
My 2023 Pick:
Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.
Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.
Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.
As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.
While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.
2024 The Masters Picks
Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)
In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.
Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.
Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.
In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.
Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.
Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.
Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)
Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.
While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.
“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.
I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.
So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”
As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.
Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.
Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.
Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)
Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.
Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.
In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.
Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.
Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)
With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.
It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.
Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.
I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.
Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)
Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.
At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.
Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.
Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.
Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)
Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.
Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.
Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.
(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)
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Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.
This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.
If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.
Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.
Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson
Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.
Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935
Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)
Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.
I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.
Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods
Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.
Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas
I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:
Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk
A Tradition Unlike Any Other…
Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.
Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:
Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.
Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas
Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.
Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor
Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.
I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.
That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)
Here’s my personal top-10 picks:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
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Brian
Mar 16, 2015 at 6:47 pm
I remember following the final group, which included Moe, at the 1977 or 1978 (can’t remember which, it was a long time ago) Quebec Open. On one of the final holes, a par 4 or 5, there was a lengthy wait for the landing area to clear and the 3 players in the final group were just standing on the tee, chatting, the spectators milling about and waiting for play to begin.
While the players were waiting on the tee, Moe started to bounce his ball off his driver, and chatting. Bounce, bounce, bounce… I think they must have waited 5 minutes, Moe just chatting away, and bounce, bounce bouncing his ball off the face of his driver (for those of you who remember, the old tiny, persimmon type). At one point, everyone, players and spectators alike, just went silent watching Moe, seemingly in his own world, just chatting away, and bounce, bounce, bouncing the ball off the face of his driver – and he was the only person of the thousand or so standing on that tee that was seemingly not even aware of what he was doing. he was not paying attention at all, just reflex and subconscious controlling his actions.
I’ve been playing golf for 50 years, have been inside the ropes at multiple PGA Tour events and a President’s Cup, but I’ve never seen anything like that. Totally otherworldly…
Tony Cassimatis
Mar 5, 2015 at 1:57 pm
Dear Mr Adams,
Great article on Moe Norman. A friend of mine told me about the swing back in 2008 when I was about to give away golf. The swing resurrected my game and I fully believe in the Physics of the swing. I also don’t suffer from bad back problems now. I may not get distance like conventional but I sure as heck have had a massive reduction in bad shots and an increase in more accurate shots. So here’s to Moe a true golfing legend….
Jeff
Mar 1, 2015 at 6:03 pm
Thanks Mr. Adams. The only folks who didn’t love reading that story have spent money on Todd Graves Moe Norman scams. Great story, fascinating.
Larry
Mar 1, 2015 at 10:49 pm
I loved the story and the Todd Graves scam has me playing the best golf ever….once you under stand what the Graves is giving you the fairways and greens are all yours…just learn to putt. In 25 years never found an eaiser way to play golf.
Barney Adams
Mar 1, 2015 at 11:54 pm
I do not know Todd Graves or his teaching methods. The story was strictly on my experience with Moe and absolutely he was unnaturally strong and played heavy clubs when I made them. I was not a fan of Natural Golf but as I understand that isn’t the Graves program. Just a general FYI.
Randel
Mar 7, 2015 at 1:05 am
Been doing the Graves Moe Norman type swing years now….11 handicap 59 years of age..it works so well for us older guys that have a hard time moving all the parts at the right time in the normal golf swing… distance is no problem you just move your arms faster and us older guys can still do that..
Jw
Mar 1, 2015 at 1:08 am
this is the type of article that keeps me checking back on golfwrx on occasion
Mini Smizzle
Feb 27, 2015 at 8:15 pm
There’s a guy in my neighborhood named moe norman
He don’t look like goldmember tho
Jay
Feb 27, 2015 at 3:22 am
Barney, I’ve read the book you mentioned about Moe and have taken single plain golf lessons at Graves Golf Academy. The book and the lessons were a wonderful experience. While I was at Graves Academy taking lessons from Todd Graves, he (Todd) would tell stories about Moe. I could tell that Todd really liked Moe and above all, respected him. I’ve never met Moe personally, but, wish that I’d had the opportunity. Your article is another wonderful story about Moe that I enjoyed very much. Everything that I’ve ever heard about Moe from people that have met him and spend time with him have all be positive. Thanks Barney for your story. I would love to hear/read more about your experiences with Moe.
CairnsRock
Feb 26, 2015 at 11:05 pm
I asked Moe why he used such huge oversized grips?
Answer…Control, control.
He says everything twice.
Trevino Smizzle
Feb 26, 2015 at 7:18 pm
I’ll say this about moe…he proves what I believe in
It’s not got to be pretty, it’s got to be repeatable
I’ll take the guys that win over the guys that should win anyday. I heard Butch Harmon on TV say “a good shot comes from a good swing, I don’t care what it looks like”
Tiger Smizzle
Feb 26, 2015 at 7:12 pm
Moe could activate his glutes better than any other golfer ever
Moe Smizzle
Feb 26, 2015 at 7:11 pm
The real key to hitting it straight is to just top it real bad. Catch it as low on the face as possible. It’ll only go about 40 yards at best but it’ll be the straightest ball you ever see
Barney Smizzle
Feb 26, 2015 at 7:05 pm
I remeber moe telling me one time..
Popularity is like toothpaste, it’s overrated
Eli Yates
Feb 27, 2015 at 1:57 pm
I see what you did there.
Barney Smizzle
Feb 26, 2015 at 7:04 pm
I remember moe telling me one time…
Popularity is like toothpaste, it’s overrated
Greg V
Feb 26, 2015 at 11:48 am
Tom,
Before the 1956 Masters, Moe had just come down from Canada where he had been setting pins at a bowling alley all winter. He had hardly enough time to practice, and setting pins is tough on the back.
I am not saying that Moe was the best ball-striker of all time; there were some other guys who were really great in their day like Hogan and Byron Nelson. But one would have to agree that Moe was very accomplished.
Roosterredneck
Feb 26, 2015 at 8:34 am
I liked the story.Consider that Moe slept in sand traps at times because he had no money. Dare say how well we could play after sleeping in a sand trap.. I would like to read more about Moe.
RG
Feb 26, 2015 at 2:27 am
Great article Barney. You are sorely missed running you company, but at least I got some good reads out of it. Keep up the good work!
RG
Feb 26, 2015 at 2:25 am
Takes one to know one.
Robert
Feb 26, 2015 at 1:18 am
In 1992 I was 16 and worked at a golf course in Saskatchewan , Canada. Moe was doing a tour at the time, doing exhibitions across the country, and he did our course one evening passing through. I was fortunate to meet him and had the pleasure of picking the range that night after his deal.
I’ll never forget he hit every club in his bag to the 150 yard sign, every shot from every club was all over it. There was 50-100 balls in a 10′ radius around that sign when I was shagging that evening. Incredible and something you never forget.
Mark H
Feb 26, 2015 at 12:12 am
Thanks for the great article, Barney!
Sad to read so many mean spirited comments about Moe, but I guess everybody is entitled to their own opinion. In the year 2015, such a high functioning person who suffers from aspergers would be celebrated, not relegated as a “weirdo”. As far as Sam Snead “getting in to Moe’s head so bad”… They played golf together for decades after that, and Snead openly referred to Moe as the best ball striker in the world.
Ask Lee Trevino about Moe.
Why did Tour pros line up on the driving range to watch Moe hit balls?
Anyway, Those who know don’t need an explanation, those who don’t know will always be skeptical
jon
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:13 pm
that is a great story Barney!! Thank you for sharing. Great story telling. I have sent this to a few buddies and that rarely happens.
Barney Adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:39 pm
To Robby Wille above; I wrote one The Wow Factor which was the story of Adams Golf. I’m mulling doing another one I’m not a professional writer ( wrote the first one no ghost involved) it’s difficult and I’m old and lazy
Christian
Feb 25, 2015 at 7:15 pm
So if Moe was not autistic, then what was wrong with him? He obviously was mentally ill or retarded then? Not brushing you teeth, the constant ego-tripping talking?
Barney Adams
Feb 27, 2015 at 12:47 am
Best to read Moe and Me for the answer. In 1995 Wally Uilhein CEO of Titleist put Moe on staff ( no strings) 5k a month for life Really a class move and testimony to how highly regarded Moe was in the industry.
Ken
Feb 25, 2015 at 7:08 pm
That was an enjoyable read. Thank you, Barney.
Ritch
Feb 25, 2015 at 6:44 pm
I grew up in Michigan across the river from Canada. I played a lot of golf in Canada and during the sixties and early seventies heard many stories about his “odd swing” and unerring accuracy. In later life, I read mores stories of his “eccentricities”. I never had the chance to see him play. As I recall, Titleist put him on staff in his last years and paid him a monthly stipend to help him make expenses. I thought that was a nice gesture.
Barney Adams
Feb 27, 2015 at 12:23 am
Wally Uihlein the President of Titleist put Moe on staff 5 k/ mo in 1995 No Strings of any kind Moe had played Titleist balls for years . Purely a class move and testimony to how highly regarded Moe was within the industry.
barney adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 6:04 pm
I started to take off on the anti Moe comments and then figured why bother. I repeat; if you are really interested read Moe and Me.
farmer
Feb 25, 2015 at 4:15 pm
Liked the article. I remember back in the day, Tommy Bolt was judged to have the best swing in the game.
Steve
Feb 25, 2015 at 3:53 pm
I love moe. Caddy tells Moe that the hole is just a driver- wedge. Moe hits wedge off the tee, driver from fairway makes birdie.
Tom
Feb 25, 2015 at 3:03 pm
At the 1956 Masters, Snead got into Moe’s head so bad, Norman never set foot on US soil again, competitively. He can ‘supposedly’ hit all the great balls he wants on the range (as a professional who can’t do that – seen tiger right?) but if you can’t even compete with guys who are supposed to be your contemporaries who cares? I’ve seen the video(s) where Moe’s hitting all these shots but I’m thinking “who gives a crap”? seriously… if i have 40 years where all i do is sit on the range, live in my car, forget to brush my teeth, etc., and hit balls all day long, then go to florida for the winter months, i had better be able to hit a golf ball. that’s what he did… Snead, and all the others, beat the pants off of Norman. The current day hack looks to youtube and thinks he’s some demigod? like he knew something they could learn from? no thanks.
lance
Feb 25, 2015 at 3:53 pm
Moe Norman: 55 Canadian Pga wins, 17 holes in one, 33 course records and 3 59’s. Snead said he was the greatest ballstriker ever! The current day youtube hack like yourself isn’t smart enough to see the perfect biomechanics of Moe’s swing. The modern swing has legs pushing up and torso moving down to be able to compensate for the distance from the ball. BACK PROBLEMS see Tiger. Being farther away from the ball allows the hips to stabilize the swing so the torso can stay down and through the shot. Lesson learned Tom now go make your game better learning from Moe’s perfect swing.
Tom
Feb 25, 2015 at 4:01 pm
hey lance-i-baby… look at snead’s record, then look at norman’s. done. who cares about tiger… norman is a “what could hvae been” story where snead is a “look at what he did” story. go back to your canadian dreams.
Jay
Feb 25, 2015 at 5:52 pm
Tom – if you knew anything about golf history then you would know why Moe had the record he did. His record, or lack of, still does not diminish his skills.
Rich
Feb 25, 2015 at 7:43 pm
Wow, who got out of the wrong side of bed this morning? You must remember to take your happy pills before commenting.
Philip
Feb 25, 2015 at 10:34 pm
Snead tried to give Moe a valid tip for long irons. Unfortunately he could never of expected Moe to try and ingrain the change that day and end up blistering his hands raw after practicing into the dark night. He would have expected Moe to consider the tip after the Master’s not make a swing change on the spot and get stuck between two swings.
In addition, Moe did play again a second time at the Masters and for a little while on the PGA tour so you may want to validate your information first.
Greg V
Feb 25, 2015 at 2:40 pm
CJ Bell – smooth.
Thanks.
Rob
Feb 25, 2015 at 1:45 pm
Moe was one of a kind for sure. “Maybe I should take up fishing.” is the thought that goes through most peoples heads if they watched him hit balls. It was a completely different level.
Jeffrey
Feb 25, 2015 at 1:24 pm
Hey Barney how did you get Moe’s club that heavy on the swing weight scale? If Moe had fat grips (which is widely known), it would be ESPECIALLY difficult to get clubs that heavy! How did you do it?? Thank you for your article –
barney adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 6:01 pm
lead tape and lead powder after I had the supplier set aside the heaviest heads he could find , the out of spec stuff.
Barney Adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:36 pm
Full disclosure I never put them on the SW scale just got them to where Moe was happy. I do remember thinking ” I could never sell clubs like these”
b-wall
Jun 15, 2015 at 3:20 pm
Mr. Adams,
There seems to have been an ongoing debate for years if Moe used single length clubs for his irons in his major playing days. When you built clubs for Moe, were they all one standard lie angle to promote this, or was the single length clubs just a myth?
J.R.
Feb 25, 2015 at 12:59 pm
Lorne Rubenstein’s “Moe and Me” is really a great read. I also have the audible version. I loved the story of Moe hitting full iron shots off the Practice Green at Augusta National and freaking out members. Picking them clean and leaving no blemish on the greens. It makes me smile every time. First quote that comes to mind is. Question to Moe at clinic – “Moe, can you talk a little about hitting draws or fades?” Moe’s response – “Yeah, I can hit those shots, but why would I? I can hit it straight.”
It went something like that.
Here’s a video of Moe hitting to a pin from about 70yds or so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHmq4xhS_bI
MHendon
Feb 26, 2015 at 12:43 am
Watched the video, no doubt that’s good ball striking but it’s not that impressive considering he had quite the back stop behind the pin that kept bringing his long shots back to the pin.
Rich
Feb 26, 2015 at 4:16 am
Really? Let’s see your video if it’s not that impressive.
Scott
Feb 25, 2015 at 12:08 pm
Thanks Barney for the article. I love hearing stories about Moe.
Not to derail the article, but I will, like some posters. I have played single axis for over 20 years now and am a low single digit handicap. I do not think that you need to be freakishly strong to swing single axis. I think that Moe’s swing, or parts of it, would work for all golfers. For example, Tiger Woods was convinced to change the placement of his left hand by Hank Haney, based on Moe. When you break down the few differences between single axis and the conventional swing there is very little to argue about. Most people think that single axis has to look like a 70 year old Moe. There are a few places that you can check out the Moe of his 20s and 30s. You would be hard pressed to find differences in his swing vs. a conventional swing.
barney adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 6:08 pm
actually I agree here when I first saw film of early Moe I saw a great looking swing.
Barney Adams
Feb 25, 2015 at 8:59 pm
To comment further I was aiming at Kukyendall and Natural Golf which I felt did Moe a disservice.
Scott
Feb 26, 2015 at 5:52 pm
Unfortunately, you are right. They also did single axis a disservice. However, I guess that we can thank Jack for increasing Moe’s popularity.
Tommy
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:52 am
Great insight to your treasury of experiences, Mr Adams. Please don’t deprive us of more.
Don M
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:23 am
Loved the article! I am a big fan of Moe. His swing works for amateurs, especially those who struggle with inconsistency and big misses. If you have more good stories about Moe, please write a Part 2.
Larry
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:06 am
I switched to the “Moe type swing” just used the Graves DVD’s for about a month then took a lesson form one of the “Graves Golf” guys, which was very key as I got over “Moeish” just whatching the DVDs. This action works excellent for me (Over 65) and I now hit my driver in play and for the first time ever I can hit a hybrid without hooking it off the course. One note if you try and learn this type swing use a grass range for irons.
CJ Bell
Feb 25, 2015 at 11:01 am
Greg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htgZt9wLQHQ
Greg V
Feb 25, 2015 at 10:41 am
Great article! Thanks for sharing some memories.
Now, if only I could find a video of Tommy Bolt. I actually had the pleasure of saying hello to him one time in an elevator at Pinehurst. Fortunately, I recognized him from pictures.