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Hot Metal: The Risks and Rewards of Custom Putter Design

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Let’s start off with a basic admission, a dirty little secret most golfers are unwilling to admit to. The putter you’re currently playing with day in and day out is no better or worse than any other.

Grab any putter, new or old, priced dirt cheap or sky-high and see if you can’t get the ball to drop into the bottom of the cup. Between reading the slope of the green, identifying the fault line, analyzing the grain of the grass, judging the pace and making a steady-handed stroke, the putting apparatus in your hands, while certainly not inconsequential to the result, is but a single factor that determines the number of strokes you take to hole out.

So imagine the kind of audacity I had arguing my point of view with Dave Billings, the President of Dogleg Right, better known as the inventor and designer of Machine Golf, one of the most highly respected boutique putter manufacturers in the industry. The conversation could’ve gone sideways in a hurry, but Billings let me off the hook; he’s got a Southern charm that makes you feel at ease. Plus, he’s been around long enough to have heard it all.

Billings has been tinkering with golf equipment since he was a teenager. The self-professed club junkie has been making significant contributions in putter design for the better part of two decades. His innovations have been awarded a dozen patents so far and his Machine putters have been coveted and purchased by die-hard enthusiasts at every conceivable level of the game. So while Billings didn’t agree with my claim that “any old putter will do,” he acknowledged that putters, more so than any other piece of equipment in golf, are judged primarily based on how they look and how they feel in the hands of a golfer standing over his or her ball.

“We’re finally seeing technologies that have come into play that allow us to get into more of the performance than in any time in the past,” says Billings. “It’s a little counterintuitive like a lot of things in golf. People say things like, ‘putting should be simple,’ or ‘I can putt with anything.’ But what we really know now is that a putter has a real impact on how you swing it. We see really remarkable results when we do it right — when we take the time to really get to know the golfer and figure out how to appeal to both the performance aspect and the visual aspect of their wants and needs.”

Machine Golf, while certainly not the only independent company specializing in custom milled putters, has perhaps more than anyone, come to embody the concept of made-to-order, or bespoke design. The company went into business in 1994 with very little seed money, a lot of big dreams and a successful product launch focused around an experimental putter that took the hands out of the equation.

“It started with something that was very innovative, something out of the box, namely the HOG putter,” says Billings. “The first ones were radical in their design. The head was oversized, almost as big as the MacGregor Response [ZT 615] was. The shaft and the grip were equally oversized. That innovative product looked like no other product, performed like no other product and got attention wherever we showed it. We started selling them very quickly in our first year, all around the world in fact.”

Machine putters, if you’re not familiar with them, are anything but run-of-the-mill. Imagine if someone had asked the surrealist painter H.R. Giger to submit a design, the end result might look like something that belongs in the Machine portfolio. A typical Machine putter is modular; the sheer number of customizable options is unmatched. Most Machine putters will incorporate at least some level of innovation, whether it’s adjustable weight and convertible flange technologies, unusual hosel and/or head designs, proprietary milling patterns and grip technologies. In some cases, the innovations lie exposed like a mechanical chassis, in other cases a more refined approach is used.

machine-pillcut-plumber-hosel

“We make a broad array of designs from the very classic-looking to those that can be described as being very technology-driven,” says Billings. “With one model we can say it’s more art because it’s Damascus (steel) and it’s a real traditional head. But when you look at the interchangeable flanges and weights, and the internal milling — that’s more about the science. I try to have a balance between those things and it’s a push and pull in different directions for different customers.”

Machine putters aren’t for everyone; perhaps that’s true of customizable putters in general. The sheer number of options that can be adjusted can be overwhelming to comprehend. What Billings, as well as other putter designers were able to impress upon me is that even the slightest change, say for instance the type of hosel used or its offset, can have significant impact on how a putter will swing. So while anything can be used for the purposes of putting, not every putter (certainly not the kind that are randomly chosen off the rack) are a good match for their respective owners, says Billings.

“There’s a lot of pride in being able to buy something that’s handmade as opposed to mass-produced,” he adds. “I think there’s a big draw for that, especially when [a golfer] can become part creator and contribute to what at the very least is a customized product.”

What I’ve come to recognize about the custom milled putter business from speaking to Billings is that it’s a fellowship of gear heads who risk everything in a pursuit to transform metal into art.

“For anyone who goes into the boutique putter business,” says Billings, “it’s a labor of love. You have to put in the hours, the blood, sweat and tears. There’s not necessarily a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.”

The kind of hand-crafted putter design that Billings and his contemporaries are engaged in is a fringe business within the putter market, which in itself vies for a tiny fraction of the total dollars spent every year on golf equipment.

So how big, or rather, how small is the pie?

  • The two largest golf markets in the world, the United States and Japan, netted a combined $8.8 billion in equipment and apparel sales in 2013 according to a World Golf Market Report released jointly by Golf Datatech and Yano Research Institute.
  • Out of the total cited above, only 3.3 percent came from putter sales in the U.S. ($173 million) and 2.6 percent in Japan ($98 million) respectfully.
  • If that isn’t sobering enough, putter sales declined by 8 percent in the U.S. in 2013 and 18 percent in Japan. That’s no hiccup. Since 1997, unit sales of putters at big box stores and green grass shops have declined by nearly 42 percent.

Market conditions would appear to suggest that the custom-milled putter is an endangered species. But that hasn’t stopped craftsmen like Machine, Bettinardi, Byron Morgan, Edel and Bobby Grace from competing with the larger OEMs, many of which are producing less expensive cast molded putters.

Joining them within the last few years are a vast number of independent designers; companies such as Low Tide, Piretti, Nead, Bellum Winmore, Carnahan, Carbon, Buzelli and BPutters.

So what convinces these golf enthusiasts to sacrifice time, money and occasionally their common sense to pursue an expensive hobby with no guarantees of success? I looked to Italy for the answers.

Born For The Big Shot

It takes a certain leap of faith to order a putter over the Internet, from a designer overseas, someone just getting started in the golf industry. Sure, I had seen some sample photos online and I had a few terse conversations (over email) with the owner of BPutters, Antonio Biagioli. My hopes were high. Luckily, the model that arrived from Cesena, a town near the eastern coast of Italy and a two-hour drive from Florence, was a real beauty; or as they in Italian, molto bella.

My model, coined the Coyote by Biagioli, was almost too delicate to wield. That is to say, I didn’t want to leave a smudge on the reflective black pearl finish or wrap my hands clumsily around the refined leather pistol grip with raised stitching running across the spine. Biagioli designed the putter to closely match the specs of my Scotty Cameron Del Mar. Four degrees of loft, 34 inches in length and 350 grams of weight in the head. For what it’s worth, the Coyote felt much heavier. Something about it was quintessentially Italian; perhaps it was the clean lines, the feminine-like curves or simply the handcrafted feel.

Italy, as you might imagine, doesn’t have a strong golfing tradition. Biagioli estimates that there might be 80,000 golfers in his country, a number that is actually contracting. Like many Italians, Biagioli grew up playing football and knew nothing about the game until he was dragged to a golf course in Ireland on a business trip almost 20 years ago. He fell in love with golf immediately but his subsequent adventure as a putter designer took a long time to plan and execute.

Biagioli has been working in the automotive industry for most of his life, primarily as an executive manager where he coordinates between suppliers and producers — a boring job as he chooses to put it. Boring though it may have been, the job gave Biagioli a chance to study engineering first hand.

“I started to work closely with the engineers and see the production happen on a daily basis,” says Biagioli. “We work on transmissions and power steering, both hydraulic and mechanical, so we have a lot of work with metals. From that I started to take little pieces at a time and began learning about how suppliers finish metals, how they actually mill metal. It became kind of a second job for me.”

While continuing to work in the automotive industry, Biagioli launched BPutters about year and half ago, combining his love of art, engineering and of course golf.

“I’ve always been intrigued by putters because of the intimacy of their use,” says Biagioli. “I’ve always felt that putters are something so personal compared to a driver or an iron that you carry in your bag.”

He came out with four models initially. One of them, the Hammer, looks like a traditional blade-style putter, the others are adaptations of a mallet design. To come up with these designs, Biagioli says he began sketching on paper.

“I go through at least three or four phases before I can prototype a 3D model of the putter,” he says. “I use a very simple 3D printer to get an initial perspective of the putter itself. It’s a plastic model that ends up becoming a steel prototype.

“That is probably the longest process because you have to program a CNC machine,” he adds. “It’s not that easy and I do have a professional CNC programmer working with me on this project. Once we have a prototype, we test it many times. We make adjustments to the weight distribution, adjust the shape and try to decide which finish can be applied to that model. It’s another three weeks just to test finishes. If we’re talking about carbon steel, it takes more than a month.”

bputters

Aside from his role in designing putters and managing the production line, Biagioli spends his remaining time promoting his brand. If you think it’s difficult for an American putter craftsman to breakthrough in the U.S., try doing it from a far-flung town in Italy. Undaunted, Biagioli has learned how to leverage social media. Many of his posts are tagged with his signature motto — born for the big shot. They feature plenty of product shots of course, but Biagioli has also posted many candid shots of himself, his home in Italy and has made some genuine friendships with golfers over the Internet.

His social media strategy (if you want to call it that) complements the sincere approach he takes to running his small business.

“I don’t want to sell putters in bulk,” Biagioli says. “I just want to sell the right putter to the right person. To establish that sort of a relationship with a customer — I see it as a privilege.”

It’s unclear whether BPutters will have the staying power to succeed. Biagioli tells me that the response from the golf community has been overwhelmingly positive so far. He’s made some in-roads selling to the Asian and Western European markets. Orders from America have also starting trickling in.

“I still have a lot of things to learn,” says Biagioli. “But at the same time I very much enjoy it. Otherwise it would be absolutely impossible for me to do both my job and what will hopefully become my full time activity in the future. I know the entire golf industry is not doing well over the last few years. But I’m taking this as an opportunity to do something that I feel is really important.”

The Scotty Cameron Effect

Unfortunately I can’t take credit for the phrase. That distinction belongs to Golf Digest Equipment Editor, Mike Stachura, who used it to describe how a single putter designer was both able to hold significant market share, while enabling other designers to raise their prices exponentially to keep up in a sort of arms race.

First and foremost, Scotty Cameron deserves his due — he makes fine putters. But it would be hard to deny, even for a casual observer, that Cameron benefited greatly from the many relationships he’s had with PGA Tour superstars over the years, including Tiger Woods who used a Newport 2 prototype for most of his career. Concerning the price of his putters, even Cameron at one time admitted to Golf Digest, “The price points on my putters are relatively high, but you aren’t just buying performance. You’re buying confidence. It’s human nature to have greater faith in something you’ve paid a premium for.”

tiger-pebble-putt

Tim Shaughnessy, co-owner of Bellum Winmore, a tiny start-up that launched only a year ago, says “Certain manufacturers have pushed that increase. Scotty Cameron has a kind of rockstar status. And at some level Bettinardi has kind of the same thing. I think the more press individual manufacturers receive and as their status increases, it ends up driving the overall cost in the market for putters.”

Shaughnessy and his partner Zac Nicholls, who live on opposite ends of the coast and are lifelong friends and golfers, went into business together with a simple idea: release a quality milled putter at a price everyone can afford.

“We tried not to be in the same realm as say a Byron Morgan who is doing a lot of stamping, Damascus and exotic stuff,” says Shaughnessy. “We weren’t going to be able to compete if we were out there for $350. We don’t have the brand recognition.”

Shaughnessy’s company focuses on three basic things: design, material and process. All Bellum Winmore putters are precision milled from a single block of 303 stainless steel and then bead blasted to a matte finish. There isn’t much variance from model to model, but Bellum Winmore does provide limited finish options, and a wide range of grip weights (10 grams to 100 grams), offering what Shaughnessy feels are the most custom back weighted options of any company out there.

bellum-winmore-backweight

“Our overhead is negligible — almost nothing,” says Shaughnessy, when asked about keeping his price points so low. “I handle everything from a design standpoint to the assemblies, the painting, customer service and anything else from New York. Zac focuses on machining and prototyping [in California] and we have an overseas facility that does the production.”

The one common denominator for companies like Bellum Winmore and BPutters is the Internet. While I’m not suggesting that the Web, more specifically social media, has allowed individual putter designers to take on Scotty Cameron and companies of that size directly, it has at least allowed them to co-exist in the industry. Billings, who launched Machine Golf back when dial-up was considered high-tech, believes that entering the marketplace is easier now, but it’s far from a cakewalk.

“The Internet has definitely lowered the barrier,” says Billings. “You don’t have to have sales reps to take your putters to the local golf shops. On the other hand, most people still want to look, feel and try before they buy. So making that switch from over the Internet to traditional retail is a bigger barrier now because there are less golf shops that want to pioneer a new brand.

“Twenty years ago you had great guys like Edwin Watts who always liked to bring in something new and put it in their catalog or over the Internet before any of the smaller companies even knew how to make a good website,” he continues. “We had great guys like that who would get your brand distributed across the country or even around the world. You don’t see much of that anymore; the big companies just don’t want to gamble on smaller brands for a lot of the obvious reasons. It’s kind of sad that it’s gone away because it can be a great shot in the arm for a small company to be able to partner with them and receive a lot of exposure.”

The one thing everyone I spoke to tended to agree upon is that differentiation is the key to survival when operating in a niche market. If your product fails to connect with a core audience, you won’t be in business for very long. And when it comes to golf equipment, putting attracts the most diverse, passionate and opinionated connoisseurs in all of golf.

“On one end of the spectrum, you’ve got the guy who’s so proud to have found a putter out of a barrel that he paid five bucks for and makes everything with it,” says Billings. “On the other end you have someone like Arnold Palmer who’s had 5,000 putters. Let’s just say it — it’s a chase for the next magical wand. It’s part of the fun and adventure of getting a new club and discovering what it might mean to your game.”

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Rusty Cage is a contributing writer for GolfWRX, one of the leading publications online for news, information and resources for the connected golfer. His articles have covered a broad spectrum of topics - equipment and apparel reviews, interviews with industry leaders, analysis of the pro game, and everything in between. Rusty's path into golf has been an unusual one. He took up the game in his late thirties, as suggested by his wife, who thought it might be a good way for her husband to grow closer to her father. The plan worked out a little too well. As his attraction to the game grew, so did his desire to take up writing again after what amounted to 15-year hiatus from sports journalism dating back to college. In spite of spending over a dozen years working in the technology sector as a backend programmer in New York City, Rusty saw an opportunity with GolfWRX and ran with it. A graduate from Boston University with a Bachelor's in journalism, Rusty's long term aspirations are to become one of the game's leading writers, rising to the standard set by modern-day legends like George Peper, Mark Frost and Dan Jenkins. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: August 2014 Fairway Executive Podcast Interview http://golfindustrytrainingassociation.com/17-rusty-cage-golf-writer (During this interview I discuss how golf industry professionals can leverage emerging technologies to connect with their audience.)

17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Pingback: The Risks and Rewards of Putter Design | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  2. Pingback: The Risks and Rewards of Custom Putter Design | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  3. Preston

    Jan 11, 2015 at 11:30 am

    Excuse my ignorance, but couldn’t someone that has access to CAD and a milling machine make their own putter? Just dial up the design and feed it to the computer. It then runs the program.

    • Kyle

      Jan 21, 2015 at 7:23 pm

      Preston,
      The short answer is: Yes, it is possible for someone with CAD and a CNC machine to be able to mill out their own putter.
      *However* It is that it is much more complicated than you are probably imagining. You need to have expertise in CAD design, CNC programming, as well as machining in order to produce a retail-ready product. It is definitely much more difficult than just feeding your CAD model to your CNC machine to cut out for you.

  4. Joey

    Jan 9, 2015 at 11:14 pm

    Sounds like he’s trying to talk out of it all the little guys, start-ups, dreamers that are popping up more and more now.

  5. Lancebp

    Jan 9, 2015 at 7:05 pm

    I’d bet serious money that if every golfer were required to pick a putter the first week he starts playing and then prohibited under penalty of death from ever changing that putter again, 99.8% of golfers would now be better putters than they are. For that matter, require every golfer on the planet to use an original Ping Anser, and 99.8% would be better putters than they are.

  6. dr bloor

    Jan 9, 2015 at 3:54 pm

    The putters are gorgeous and the ability to produce so many variations is impressive, but I’d be interested in reading more about how the fitting process for the respective companies is carried out without actually seeing the client putt. I don’t think you can actually call a putter “custom made” if the specs are dependent on something equivalent to static fitting for a driver or set of irons.

  7. rymail00

    Jan 9, 2015 at 2:24 pm

    Good article Rusty Cage. It’s unfortunate that a few members always try to tear down just about every article that’s written. Usually the people that do try that usually really have no idea WTF they talking about.

  8. JEFF

    Jan 9, 2015 at 1:14 pm

    The tool author was charmed by a man?

  9. david

    Jan 9, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    PT Barnum: sucker born every minute! Most of the best putters were from yesteryear, (Ben Crenshaw, Jack, Bob Locke, Loren Roberts, Stockton; all using old technology and 10 dollar putters. Putting is after green reading, confidence. I laugh when people spend 300 bucks on a putter. Having said that, if that’s waht it takes for you to get confidence that lasts, then spend the 350, it’s worth it. My 5 dollar garage sale special is my friend and I’m an awesome putter.

    • DMR

      Jan 9, 2015 at 4:24 pm

      Cool story, bro. Clearly Rusty covered that not everyone needs a custom milled putter. I’m sure that even you would benefit from purchasing a new putter but I do envy you confidence in your putting game.

  10. DaveT

    Jan 9, 2015 at 11:46 am

    “Identifying the fault line”?!? Do you expect an earthquake to affect your putt?

  11. Tom

    Jan 9, 2015 at 10:36 am

    I own a Bellum Winmore. The company really is awesome. One thing I really liked about them was how important it was to Tim to make sure that my putter was perfect for me and had what I wanted on it rather than it just be an off the rack kind of putter.

    • Jason

      Jan 9, 2015 at 3:44 pm

      I also have a Winmore and love it. Great people to deal with and Tim worked with me for 2 hrs finding the perfect fit for me. Great look, feel, and performance of anything out there.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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