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Opinion & Analysis

Hot Metal: The Risks and Rewards of Custom Putter Design

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Let’s start off with a basic admission, a dirty little secret most golfers are unwilling to admit to. The putter you’re currently playing with day in and day out is no better or worse than any other.

Grab any putter, new or old, priced dirt cheap or sky-high and see if you can’t get the ball to drop into the bottom of the cup. Between reading the slope of the green, identifying the fault line, analyzing the grain of the grass, judging the pace and making a steady-handed stroke, the putting apparatus in your hands, while certainly not inconsequential to the result, is but a single factor that determines the number of strokes you take to hole out.

So imagine the kind of audacity I had arguing my point of view with Dave Billings, the President of Dogleg Right, better known as the inventor and designer of Machine Golf, one of the most highly respected boutique putter manufacturers in the industry. The conversation could’ve gone sideways in a hurry, but Billings let me off the hook; he’s got a Southern charm that makes you feel at ease. Plus, he’s been around long enough to have heard it all.

Billings has been tinkering with golf equipment since he was a teenager. The self-professed club junkie has been making significant contributions in putter design for the better part of two decades. His innovations have been awarded a dozen patents so far and his Machine putters have been coveted and purchased by die-hard enthusiasts at every conceivable level of the game. So while Billings didn’t agree with my claim that “any old putter will do,” he acknowledged that putters, more so than any other piece of equipment in golf, are judged primarily based on how they look and how they feel in the hands of a golfer standing over his or her ball.

“We’re finally seeing technologies that have come into play that allow us to get into more of the performance than in any time in the past,” says Billings. “It’s a little counterintuitive like a lot of things in golf. People say things like, ‘putting should be simple,’ or ‘I can putt with anything.’ But what we really know now is that a putter has a real impact on how you swing it. We see really remarkable results when we do it right — when we take the time to really get to know the golfer and figure out how to appeal to both the performance aspect and the visual aspect of their wants and needs.”

Machine Golf, while certainly not the only independent company specializing in custom milled putters, has perhaps more than anyone, come to embody the concept of made-to-order, or bespoke design. The company went into business in 1994 with very little seed money, a lot of big dreams and a successful product launch focused around an experimental putter that took the hands out of the equation.

“It started with something that was very innovative, something out of the box, namely the HOG putter,” says Billings. “The first ones were radical in their design. The head was oversized, almost as big as the MacGregor Response [ZT 615] was. The shaft and the grip were equally oversized. That innovative product looked like no other product, performed like no other product and got attention wherever we showed it. We started selling them very quickly in our first year, all around the world in fact.”

Machine putters, if you’re not familiar with them, are anything but run-of-the-mill. Imagine if someone had asked the surrealist painter H.R. Giger to submit a design, the end result might look like something that belongs in the Machine portfolio. A typical Machine putter is modular; the sheer number of customizable options is unmatched. Most Machine putters will incorporate at least some level of innovation, whether it’s adjustable weight and convertible flange technologies, unusual hosel and/or head designs, proprietary milling patterns and grip technologies. In some cases, the innovations lie exposed like a mechanical chassis, in other cases a more refined approach is used.

machine-pillcut-plumber-hosel

“We make a broad array of designs from the very classic-looking to those that can be described as being very technology-driven,” says Billings. “With one model we can say it’s more art because it’s Damascus (steel) and it’s a real traditional head. But when you look at the interchangeable flanges and weights, and the internal milling — that’s more about the science. I try to have a balance between those things and it’s a push and pull in different directions for different customers.”

Machine putters aren’t for everyone; perhaps that’s true of customizable putters in general. The sheer number of options that can be adjusted can be overwhelming to comprehend. What Billings, as well as other putter designers were able to impress upon me is that even the slightest change, say for instance the type of hosel used or its offset, can have significant impact on how a putter will swing. So while anything can be used for the purposes of putting, not every putter (certainly not the kind that are randomly chosen off the rack) are a good match for their respective owners, says Billings.

“There’s a lot of pride in being able to buy something that’s handmade as opposed to mass-produced,” he adds. “I think there’s a big draw for that, especially when [a golfer] can become part creator and contribute to what at the very least is a customized product.”

What I’ve come to recognize about the custom milled putter business from speaking to Billings is that it’s a fellowship of gear heads who risk everything in a pursuit to transform metal into art.

“For anyone who goes into the boutique putter business,” says Billings, “it’s a labor of love. You have to put in the hours, the blood, sweat and tears. There’s not necessarily a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.”

The kind of hand-crafted putter design that Billings and his contemporaries are engaged in is a fringe business within the putter market, which in itself vies for a tiny fraction of the total dollars spent every year on golf equipment.

So how big, or rather, how small is the pie?

  • The two largest golf markets in the world, the United States and Japan, netted a combined $8.8 billion in equipment and apparel sales in 2013 according to a World Golf Market Report released jointly by Golf Datatech and Yano Research Institute.
  • Out of the total cited above, only 3.3 percent came from putter sales in the U.S. ($173 million) and 2.6 percent in Japan ($98 million) respectfully.
  • If that isn’t sobering enough, putter sales declined by 8 percent in the U.S. in 2013 and 18 percent in Japan. That’s no hiccup. Since 1997, unit sales of putters at big box stores and green grass shops have declined by nearly 42 percent.

Market conditions would appear to suggest that the custom-milled putter is an endangered species. But that hasn’t stopped craftsmen like Machine, Bettinardi, Byron Morgan, Edel and Bobby Grace from competing with the larger OEMs, many of which are producing less expensive cast molded putters.

Joining them within the last few years are a vast number of independent designers; companies such as Low Tide, Piretti, Nead, Bellum Winmore, Carnahan, Carbon, Buzelli and BPutters.

So what convinces these golf enthusiasts to sacrifice time, money and occasionally their common sense to pursue an expensive hobby with no guarantees of success? I looked to Italy for the answers.

Born For The Big Shot

It takes a certain leap of faith to order a putter over the Internet, from a designer overseas, someone just getting started in the golf industry. Sure, I had seen some sample photos online and I had a few terse conversations (over email) with the owner of BPutters, Antonio Biagioli. My hopes were high. Luckily, the model that arrived from Cesena, a town near the eastern coast of Italy and a two-hour drive from Florence, was a real beauty; or as they in Italian, molto bella.

My model, coined the Coyote by Biagioli, was almost too delicate to wield. That is to say, I didn’t want to leave a smudge on the reflective black pearl finish or wrap my hands clumsily around the refined leather pistol grip with raised stitching running across the spine. Biagioli designed the putter to closely match the specs of my Scotty Cameron Del Mar. Four degrees of loft, 34 inches in length and 350 grams of weight in the head. For what it’s worth, the Coyote felt much heavier. Something about it was quintessentially Italian; perhaps it was the clean lines, the feminine-like curves or simply the handcrafted feel.

Italy, as you might imagine, doesn’t have a strong golfing tradition. Biagioli estimates that there might be 80,000 golfers in his country, a number that is actually contracting. Like many Italians, Biagioli grew up playing football and knew nothing about the game until he was dragged to a golf course in Ireland on a business trip almost 20 years ago. He fell in love with golf immediately but his subsequent adventure as a putter designer took a long time to plan and execute.

Biagioli has been working in the automotive industry for most of his life, primarily as an executive manager where he coordinates between suppliers and producers — a boring job as he chooses to put it. Boring though it may have been, the job gave Biagioli a chance to study engineering first hand.

“I started to work closely with the engineers and see the production happen on a daily basis,” says Biagioli. “We work on transmissions and power steering, both hydraulic and mechanical, so we have a lot of work with metals. From that I started to take little pieces at a time and began learning about how suppliers finish metals, how they actually mill metal. It became kind of a second job for me.”

While continuing to work in the automotive industry, Biagioli launched BPutters about year and half ago, combining his love of art, engineering and of course golf.

“I’ve always been intrigued by putters because of the intimacy of their use,” says Biagioli. “I’ve always felt that putters are something so personal compared to a driver or an iron that you carry in your bag.”

He came out with four models initially. One of them, the Hammer, looks like a traditional blade-style putter, the others are adaptations of a mallet design. To come up with these designs, Biagioli says he began sketching on paper.

“I go through at least three or four phases before I can prototype a 3D model of the putter,” he says. “I use a very simple 3D printer to get an initial perspective of the putter itself. It’s a plastic model that ends up becoming a steel prototype.

“That is probably the longest process because you have to program a CNC machine,” he adds. “It’s not that easy and I do have a professional CNC programmer working with me on this project. Once we have a prototype, we test it many times. We make adjustments to the weight distribution, adjust the shape and try to decide which finish can be applied to that model. It’s another three weeks just to test finishes. If we’re talking about carbon steel, it takes more than a month.”

bputters

Aside from his role in designing putters and managing the production line, Biagioli spends his remaining time promoting his brand. If you think it’s difficult for an American putter craftsman to breakthrough in the U.S., try doing it from a far-flung town in Italy. Undaunted, Biagioli has learned how to leverage social media. Many of his posts are tagged with his signature motto — born for the big shot. They feature plenty of product shots of course, but Biagioli has also posted many candid shots of himself, his home in Italy and has made some genuine friendships with golfers over the Internet.

His social media strategy (if you want to call it that) complements the sincere approach he takes to running his small business.

“I don’t want to sell putters in bulk,” Biagioli says. “I just want to sell the right putter to the right person. To establish that sort of a relationship with a customer — I see it as a privilege.”

It’s unclear whether BPutters will have the staying power to succeed. Biagioli tells me that the response from the golf community has been overwhelmingly positive so far. He’s made some in-roads selling to the Asian and Western European markets. Orders from America have also starting trickling in.

“I still have a lot of things to learn,” says Biagioli. “But at the same time I very much enjoy it. Otherwise it would be absolutely impossible for me to do both my job and what will hopefully become my full time activity in the future. I know the entire golf industry is not doing well over the last few years. But I’m taking this as an opportunity to do something that I feel is really important.”

The Scotty Cameron Effect

Unfortunately I can’t take credit for the phrase. That distinction belongs to Golf Digest Equipment Editor, Mike Stachura, who used it to describe how a single putter designer was both able to hold significant market share, while enabling other designers to raise their prices exponentially to keep up in a sort of arms race.

First and foremost, Scotty Cameron deserves his due — he makes fine putters. But it would be hard to deny, even for a casual observer, that Cameron benefited greatly from the many relationships he’s had with PGA Tour superstars over the years, including Tiger Woods who used a Newport 2 prototype for most of his career. Concerning the price of his putters, even Cameron at one time admitted to Golf Digest, “The price points on my putters are relatively high, but you aren’t just buying performance. You’re buying confidence. It’s human nature to have greater faith in something you’ve paid a premium for.”

tiger-pebble-putt

Tim Shaughnessy, co-owner of Bellum Winmore, a tiny start-up that launched only a year ago, says “Certain manufacturers have pushed that increase. Scotty Cameron has a kind of rockstar status. And at some level Bettinardi has kind of the same thing. I think the more press individual manufacturers receive and as their status increases, it ends up driving the overall cost in the market for putters.”

Shaughnessy and his partner Zac Nicholls, who live on opposite ends of the coast and are lifelong friends and golfers, went into business together with a simple idea: release a quality milled putter at a price everyone can afford.

“We tried not to be in the same realm as say a Byron Morgan who is doing a lot of stamping, Damascus and exotic stuff,” says Shaughnessy. “We weren’t going to be able to compete if we were out there for $350. We don’t have the brand recognition.”

Shaughnessy’s company focuses on three basic things: design, material and process. All Bellum Winmore putters are precision milled from a single block of 303 stainless steel and then bead blasted to a matte finish. There isn’t much variance from model to model, but Bellum Winmore does provide limited finish options, and a wide range of grip weights (10 grams to 100 grams), offering what Shaughnessy feels are the most custom back weighted options of any company out there.

bellum-winmore-backweight

“Our overhead is negligible — almost nothing,” says Shaughnessy, when asked about keeping his price points so low. “I handle everything from a design standpoint to the assemblies, the painting, customer service and anything else from New York. Zac focuses on machining and prototyping [in California] and we have an overseas facility that does the production.”

The one common denominator for companies like Bellum Winmore and BPutters is the Internet. While I’m not suggesting that the Web, more specifically social media, has allowed individual putter designers to take on Scotty Cameron and companies of that size directly, it has at least allowed them to co-exist in the industry. Billings, who launched Machine Golf back when dial-up was considered high-tech, believes that entering the marketplace is easier now, but it’s far from a cakewalk.

“The Internet has definitely lowered the barrier,” says Billings. “You don’t have to have sales reps to take your putters to the local golf shops. On the other hand, most people still want to look, feel and try before they buy. So making that switch from over the Internet to traditional retail is a bigger barrier now because there are less golf shops that want to pioneer a new brand.

“Twenty years ago you had great guys like Edwin Watts who always liked to bring in something new and put it in their catalog or over the Internet before any of the smaller companies even knew how to make a good website,” he continues. “We had great guys like that who would get your brand distributed across the country or even around the world. You don’t see much of that anymore; the big companies just don’t want to gamble on smaller brands for a lot of the obvious reasons. It’s kind of sad that it’s gone away because it can be a great shot in the arm for a small company to be able to partner with them and receive a lot of exposure.”

The one thing everyone I spoke to tended to agree upon is that differentiation is the key to survival when operating in a niche market. If your product fails to connect with a core audience, you won’t be in business for very long. And when it comes to golf equipment, putting attracts the most diverse, passionate and opinionated connoisseurs in all of golf.

“On one end of the spectrum, you’ve got the guy who’s so proud to have found a putter out of a barrel that he paid five bucks for and makes everything with it,” says Billings. “On the other end you have someone like Arnold Palmer who’s had 5,000 putters. Let’s just say it — it’s a chase for the next magical wand. It’s part of the fun and adventure of getting a new club and discovering what it might mean to your game.”

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Rusty Cage is a contributing writer for GolfWRX, one of the leading publications online for news, information and resources for the connected golfer. His articles have covered a broad spectrum of topics - equipment and apparel reviews, interviews with industry leaders, analysis of the pro game, and everything in between. Rusty's path into golf has been an unusual one. He took up the game in his late thirties, as suggested by his wife, who thought it might be a good way for her husband to grow closer to her father. The plan worked out a little too well. As his attraction to the game grew, so did his desire to take up writing again after what amounted to 15-year hiatus from sports journalism dating back to college. In spite of spending over a dozen years working in the technology sector as a backend programmer in New York City, Rusty saw an opportunity with GolfWRX and ran with it. A graduate from Boston University with a Bachelor's in journalism, Rusty's long term aspirations are to become one of the game's leading writers, rising to the standard set by modern-day legends like George Peper, Mark Frost and Dan Jenkins. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: August 2014 Fairway Executive Podcast Interview http://golfindustrytrainingassociation.com/17-rusty-cage-golf-writer (During this interview I discuss how golf industry professionals can leverage emerging technologies to connect with their audience.)

17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Pingback: The Risks and Rewards of Putter Design | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  2. Pingback: The Risks and Rewards of Custom Putter Design | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  3. Preston

    Jan 11, 2015 at 11:30 am

    Excuse my ignorance, but couldn’t someone that has access to CAD and a milling machine make their own putter? Just dial up the design and feed it to the computer. It then runs the program.

    • Kyle

      Jan 21, 2015 at 7:23 pm

      Preston,
      The short answer is: Yes, it is possible for someone with CAD and a CNC machine to be able to mill out their own putter.
      *However* It is that it is much more complicated than you are probably imagining. You need to have expertise in CAD design, CNC programming, as well as machining in order to produce a retail-ready product. It is definitely much more difficult than just feeding your CAD model to your CNC machine to cut out for you.

  4. Joey

    Jan 9, 2015 at 11:14 pm

    Sounds like he’s trying to talk out of it all the little guys, start-ups, dreamers that are popping up more and more now.

  5. Lancebp

    Jan 9, 2015 at 7:05 pm

    I’d bet serious money that if every golfer were required to pick a putter the first week he starts playing and then prohibited under penalty of death from ever changing that putter again, 99.8% of golfers would now be better putters than they are. For that matter, require every golfer on the planet to use an original Ping Anser, and 99.8% would be better putters than they are.

  6. dr bloor

    Jan 9, 2015 at 3:54 pm

    The putters are gorgeous and the ability to produce so many variations is impressive, but I’d be interested in reading more about how the fitting process for the respective companies is carried out without actually seeing the client putt. I don’t think you can actually call a putter “custom made” if the specs are dependent on something equivalent to static fitting for a driver or set of irons.

  7. rymail00

    Jan 9, 2015 at 2:24 pm

    Good article Rusty Cage. It’s unfortunate that a few members always try to tear down just about every article that’s written. Usually the people that do try that usually really have no idea WTF they talking about.

  8. JEFF

    Jan 9, 2015 at 1:14 pm

    The tool author was charmed by a man?

  9. david

    Jan 9, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    PT Barnum: sucker born every minute! Most of the best putters were from yesteryear, (Ben Crenshaw, Jack, Bob Locke, Loren Roberts, Stockton; all using old technology and 10 dollar putters. Putting is after green reading, confidence. I laugh when people spend 300 bucks on a putter. Having said that, if that’s waht it takes for you to get confidence that lasts, then spend the 350, it’s worth it. My 5 dollar garage sale special is my friend and I’m an awesome putter.

    • DMR

      Jan 9, 2015 at 4:24 pm

      Cool story, bro. Clearly Rusty covered that not everyone needs a custom milled putter. I’m sure that even you would benefit from purchasing a new putter but I do envy you confidence in your putting game.

  10. DaveT

    Jan 9, 2015 at 11:46 am

    “Identifying the fault line”?!? Do you expect an earthquake to affect your putt?

  11. Tom

    Jan 9, 2015 at 10:36 am

    I own a Bellum Winmore. The company really is awesome. One thing I really liked about them was how important it was to Tim to make sure that my putter was perfect for me and had what I wanted on it rather than it just be an off the rack kind of putter.

    • Jason

      Jan 9, 2015 at 3:44 pm

      I also have a Winmore and love it. Great people to deal with and Tim worked with me for 2 hrs finding the perfect fit for me. Great look, feel, and performance of anything out there.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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