Opinion & Analysis

The GolfWRX Guide to Playing in a Scramble

Published

9 years ago

Apr 22, 2015

This story is part of our new “GolfWRX Guides,” a how-to series created by our Featured Writers and Contributors — passionate golfers and golf professionals in search of answers to golf’s most-asked questions.

Scramble tournaments mean one thing: birdie-fest! How could you not be excited to play golf where others make up for your mistakes and you get four runs at birdie on nearly every hole? Before you lies the opportunity to team up with three of your closest friends or favorite ringers.

Unfortunately, golfers or entire groups miss the point of playing in a scramble event.

There’s no right answer, but you don’t want to show up at the event without an agenda. If you’re competitive, you might be in it to win it. If you’re charitable, your goal is to raise money for the cause. If you’re generous, your No. 1 concern is to ensure that your friends have a great time and come away with a great story to tell.

You may be inclined to assume that if you’ve played one scramble, you’ve played them all. Before you fire that shot across the bow, let’s take a look at your check list for a successful scramble golf tournament.

Know your format

It’s a bit odd to call an event a traditional scramble, but it seems that tournament organizers are jonesing to separate their tournament from the rest by way of an altered format. The traditional scramble event follows the following protocol: each golfer plays from the tee, then the group selects one drive. From there, each golfer hits a second shot and then the procedure is repeated until the ball is holed.

In recent years, the Shamble has gained some traction, perhaps to keep teams from riding one player too hard to victory. The shamble requires each golfer to tee off, then have the team select its best drive. From there, each golfer plays his own ball to the end of the hole and the team records the two best scores. While a traditional scramble score will be in the low 60s with handicap, a shamble tally doubles that figure.

Knowing your format is critical to picking your participants.

[quote_box_center]Before teeing off, work out a game plan between you and your partners,” said golf journalist Rusty Cage. “Each person has strengths and weaknesses. Depending on the format, you can cover up for each other’s mistakes.[/quote_box_center]

A number of Buffalo-area golfers and professionals chimed in with their thoughts as well — No. 1 being the need for great putters. The more guys you can get to drain those eagle and birdie putts, the better.

One club pro mentioned 300-plus yard drives. These are the white buffalos of scramble participants — rarely seen, but when you do it’s a pleasure. If you can snag yourself one of these 300-yard driving white buffalos, you’ll be looking at a bunch of birdies, eagles, and hitting from shorter distances than you’ve ever seen. If not, it may be just a helpful to have guys who know precisely how far they hit the ball, with every club in the bag. Realistic strikers help way more than the dreamers.

Preparation breeds success

Mulligans and strings are the boon and the bane of many a scramble event. Offered before play begins by the tournament committee, mulligans are do-overs and strings are lengths of cord used to move the ball closer to the hole. Each is sold at the check-in desk, with all proceeds going to charity. I have a friend who purchases mulligans, then invariably uses each one twice. Whether he simply loses count or knows what he is doing, it’s cheating! Since he has yet to win an event, the golf gods clearly believe in karma. However, if your goal is to take home the tiny, first-place jug, then get your money in and purchase those mullies and strings.

Remember that order of play is a big deal in scramble events, so you should prepare properly within your group. There is usually one skittish player in every group, so he should hit either first or second each time to alleviate the pressure. If he hits a bad one, he has three golfers to bail him out.

If you play your weak players toward the back of the order, they’ll feel the pressure (self-imposed as it is) every time. There is usually one chap who loves the attention and jumps up to be lead-off man, no matter the shot. Try to reel him back as much as possible. Finally, there is one father figure, the guy who perceives himself as Mr. Pressure. He’ll offer a quiet nod when you ask him if he doesn’t mind the anchor slot. Keep the batting order for as long as it works, but don’t be afraid to mix things up if you get stale.

Load up your team

Golf offers one simple rule to all of its competitors: the hottest player wins. The local scramble brain trust, always intent on winning an event, assembles a team that includes one long driver, one solid iron player, one top-notch putter and a fourth boasting some necessary skill (like money, to purchase the mulligans and strings mentioned above). The problem with this approach is, if one of the experts is off his particular game, the team suffers appropriately. Camaraderie, rather than talent, usually wins the day. Four guys who get along, forgive each other’s misses, and keep the smiles big and the attitudes positive will capture the flag over an all-star compilation.

The other way to do this is to grab three of your greatest friends, guys who love to talk friendly smack, have a cold one and roar when the big dog eats. Whether you win or not is inconsequential; what matters is that a good time is had by all.

Let’s be honest: who brags about winning a scramble? They don’t bring you local ranking points and you can’t qualify into the state amateur by winning one. Keep your priorities in order and your head level. You’ll have a great time and your friends will invite you out to their next scramble.

Get advice from others

Opinions, like noses, are what everyone has. Throughout my fact-gathering process, I was told by experienced scramblers to have the best putter go last. One guy thought outside the box and said to have the best putter and driver hit first. If those skill guys show you the line or put it in play, it frees everyone else up to hit their best shot.

In events where everyone has to count a certain number of drives, swinging free and loose is critical. No matter what they say, however, remember that your partners are flawed. If they were great, they would be on tour somewhere, or playing in the local amateur championship. They aren’t, so they’re not. Having a great time ensures that you will play together again. The more you play together, the more likely you are to have success.

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Ronald Montesano

Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

40 Comments

Daniel

Apr 30, 2015 at 9:36 am

Nice article, I especially like the part about preparing mentally before the round. I am usually the “A” player when I play a scramble, not because I’m a great golfer, but because I happen to be better than the guys I play with. The hard part of this is the expectation that I have to get it done if the team is going to play well. Mostly this expectation is self imposed, and it’s hard to just go out and play my game. For example, the team has a 20 ft birdie putt and I’m the last one to go. I miss the putt and get upset because I have seen the line and I didn’t make it. Now if I’m playing my own ball and miss a 20 ft birdie, it’s no big deal.
I like the advice someone said in the comments about having the best putter putting 2nd or 3rd. It’s so hard when you’re last and you are trying to make sure you don’t leave it short, so you end up blasting it through the break.

I guess it’s tough being a skittish A player.

Reply Report comment
Steve

Apr 27, 2015 at 11:56 am

Here’s a head gamer tactic we’ve employed. I won’t promise that it will make you win, but it will affect other groups nearby. Eagles really are game changers in a scramble. Of course, when they happen, your team will likely be heard by other teams in the same area of the course. So what’s to stop you from letting out an equivalent cheer, no matter the score? I realized this once on an eagle putt I made from really far across the par 5’s green. We roared when the 70+ footer went in. The green was perched about 20′ above (by elevation) another green and tee box. That roar HAD to get in the heads of our opponents. Pick your locations wisely (for most effect) and let that same roar happen even if your anchor misses that 12′ birdie by an inch. He taps in quickly but the team reacts like they’ve gained serious strokes on the field.

It’s just a head game. And your opponents will feel the multiplied pressure, no doubt.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 10:56 am
  
  What goes around, comes around. If everyone employs that strategy, will it be golf? More important, will it be good form?
  
  Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Apr 24, 2015 at 10:35 am

Rule #1… you always need one player who is good at flagging down the cart girl.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 10:56 am
  
  Don’t they stock you up at the beginning and have plenty of treats along the way?
  
  Reply Report comment
Gary Gutful

Apr 23, 2015 at 7:54 pm

Enjoy playing scrambles but typically find that it’s the team with burglars that do really well. A 18+ handicapper who generally hits the ball well but has the odd blowout the stops their handicap coming down is perfect for this type of format. Pair two burglars with two solid single figure golfers and you are laughing.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 10:58 am
  
  Well written. If they are burglars, though, chances are decent that they are also sandbaggers.
  
  Reply Report comment
Tre

Apr 23, 2015 at 7:34 pm

Good article. The most fun I have ever had on a course was a scramble with a group of teachers I worked with on the last day of school. Any tips on when to use the mulligans and strings? We had two, used them on long birdie putts which changed a par to a birdie. I could see benefits to using them on approaches and par 5s in 2.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 10:04 pm
  
  I would use them early, to gain momentum or to keep it going. If you save them for later, the pressure to make them count multiplies. I am a fan of approaches on par fives, so that’s another good option.
  
  Reply Report comment
Joe

Apr 23, 2015 at 5:00 pm

I played in a scramble with a marker where we legitimately shot 50 (-22). Par on one and then 5 eagles (1 on a par 4) and birdied the other 12 holes. We missed from 10 feet on 1 and then made everything including a few putts over 30 feet. It can happen, but with the same group we haven’t shot better than -17 in over 15 years. -20 3 straight years as mentioned above is some high quality BS.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 11:00 am
  
  I agree, Joe. We’ve played in a scramble at a course you can get, and only once did we catch lightning in a bottle. It was a great ride, though!!
  
  Reply Report comment
Andy

Apr 23, 2015 at 4:18 pm

For 10 years in SE Missouri, I played 4-man scrambles for money. For 9 holes, the “A” players picked his partners, every player puts in 10 bucks, winning 4some takes all… Then do it again & again, heck all day.
As an “A” player, my first choice was the best iron player, somebody that hits it close. Even with 4 of us putting on 30-footers, need luck to hole it. 10-footers we make 99% of the time.
Next pick is the good putter, last pick was the long drive guy, which is funny in that Sean Fister was in this scramble game for years, and nobody hits it longer…

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 8:15 pm
  
  That’s an excellent point, Andy. Someone who can stuff it in there and feels no pressure is better than golf.
  
  Reply Report comment
MarkNado

Apr 23, 2015 at 3:59 pm

The most important thing in scrambles is to down shooting 10 under after playing by saying things like “we couldn’t make any putts” or “we had 3 eagle putts but they all lipped out”…that’s all I ever hear

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 10:59 am
  
  Same guys who go over their career 87 with you, shot for shot. Yawn!! Hate those moments.
  
  Reply Report comment
MarkNado

Apr 23, 2015 at 3:51 pm

Make sure one of your teammates uses a pencil wedge.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 10:59 am
  
  Neagative!!! No pencil wedges and no eraser putters.
  
  Reply Report comment
Truth

Apr 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm

I love playing a good scramble its always a lot of fun because i never really care about winning. Simple fact is there will always be one group who takes it too seriously and will end up cheating. Im not saying they wouldnt of had a low score anyway but there will always be a handful of holes they lip out a putt and count it anyway or someone takes a second go at it. You will never escape cheaters in this format just dont let it bother you have a good time

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 11:01 am
  
  It’s up to every group to police the one ahead of them. We know what birdie putts and birdie/eagle reactions look like. If the guys were blaise about it all day, they didn’t shoot the number they turned in.
  
  Reply Report comment
Nate

Apr 23, 2015 at 12:30 pm

Great article, Ronald. Thanks for posting this!

I prefer to go with a set order off of the tee and on the green but go with the “next man up” philosophy for approach shots and chipping.

Off the tee, I think the ideal setup is to have the most consistent or accurate guy go first so that he can put one in play. Have your weakest or most skiddish player go 2nd so that you can minimize the liability, and then have the big dogs go 3rd and 4th. On the green, I really like having the best putter go first so that he can show the group the appropriate line and pace. I’ve found it difficult though when putters 2-4 struggle to make consistent contact. Nothing worse than having your best putter go first to show you the line and then have the other 3 guys mishit their putts – a waste of great opportunity!

At the end of the day, playing well in scrambles comes down to having a fun group and having at least one person get hot with the flat stick.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 29, 2015 at 9:35 am
  
  Thank you, Nate. If you only have one good putter, you won’t be in the mix. Your top putter has to be borderline arrogant about her/his stroke. You should have a mate who can hit a line, if not the hole, and she/he should go first. Everyone agrees on the line, then that “crash test dummy” goes ahead and hits the anticipated line. 2 gives it a run, then your best putter goes 3rd. If you get to #4, don’t worry if it doesn’t go in.
  
  Reply Report comment
RobG

Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am

A few years back in our company scramble me and a buddy (both avid golfers) got paired with two absolute beginners. I’m a long ball hitter, JP is phenomenal iron player and we both have decent short games and putters. We shot 58 (-14) riding basically just the two of us. If we had one more guy who could putt, a 52 probably could have happened. It is the lowest round (by 9 shots) to have been recorded in the 15 years of the tournament and it was the 2nd lowest 4-man scramble score ever posted at that golf course – the record is 56. Golf came easy that day and I doubt I will ever have another day on the course like that again.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 11:04 am
  
  Preach, brother! Those days are great to feel and great to remember.
  
  Reply Report comment
BD57

Apr 23, 2015 at 11:24 am

My “rule” for order of play (for what it’s worth):

Identify the person who’s going to hit last for every “shot” – who’s your anchor off the tee, on second shots, short game shots, putts? Doesn’t have to be the same person (probably isn’t).

Once that’s done, the first to play of the other three should be the person most likely to hit a decent shot (whatever the shot may be). That person coming through allows everyone else to take a rip.

Important (IMO) in putting is that the first player to putt be decent on speed – we want to see what the putt does when hit at decent speed so we can adjust our read accordingly (if necessary).

Playing with friends is a VERY good idea. Scramble teams that enjoy each other’s company tend to do better.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 28, 2015 at 11:09 am
  
  Friends make the day. If you can raise a toast to each other and laugh off your foozles, you will have a great scramble.
  
  Reply Report comment
Bob Quigley

Apr 23, 2015 at 11:18 am

Speaking of your three guys in denim comment, we have a foursome like that who the last three years have won our outing with reported scores of -20, -20 and -22. This year, we thought we would slow them down by requiring at least 4 drives from each player in their foursome. When they reported their score at 20 under, I bet them $100 to play against them any hole they wanted, me against their foursome. They selected hole # 1. They scored a double bogie and I was lucky enough to score a par. I am not so sure we will be seeing that group again!

Reply Report comment
- BD57
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 11:30 am
  
  Your experience is evidence of how important it is that there be little to no “Prize” for “winning.”
  
  Played years ago in a scramble with good friends: Husband & wife (he was a 2, she played golf in college), a long hitting buddy who was about a 5 at the time, and me (also a 2, at least back then).
  
  We went on a hot streak, aided by the wife playing from the women’s tees (we were using her drives all day), three of us being good putters who had a good day (H & W and me), and our long hitter having a good day. We were 15 under.
  
  Guys in front of us reported 16 under. There was no way … we saw pretty much every shot they hit, saw them putting, etc. There’s “celebration” in a group which is dropping putts from all over (there was in our group), and we didn’t see it there.
  
  BUT – – – there was no real “prize” for winning, so it didn’t matter. We’d played well, had a very good day, enjoyed each other’s company, and helped raise money for a worthy cause.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 29, 2015 at 9:38 am
  
  One word: Inconceivable!
  
  Another word: Awesome.
  
  Reply Report comment
Josh Spangler

Apr 23, 2015 at 10:30 am

In arkansas we have so many good golfers …if you don’t shoot 17-20 under in a 4 man…u ain’t winning

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am
  
  Is that a scratch or handicap 4 man, Josh?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Josh A
    
    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:47 am
    
    I can’t speak for the other Josh, but I am also from Arkansas and have played in a number of scramble tournaments here. There are multiple areas in the state–Jonesboro for example–which have a number of charity scrambles each summer that are very competitive. Players will come from all across the state to compete in these, and if you’re not in the low 50s (scratch) then you have no shot at winning the championship flight. These tournaments are expensive, but also provide very generous payouts, so the top teams in these areas basically treat this as a summer scramble tour.
    
    Reply Report comment
Gorden

Apr 23, 2015 at 9:56 am

I like the bland draw scramble where players are put in A,B,C,D rankings by handicap. Each team is a made up of one each A<B<C<D player. Only drawback with this type scramble is the A player that is not really an A player….we all see the 10 handicap showing up with a 15 handicap but far worse is the 15 handicap showing up with a 7.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 10:33 am
  
  Good points, Gorden. If the people all know each other or are all very gregarious, the blind draw works well. Many golfers eschew this format, as they must leave their comfort zone to perform in front of golfers they don’t know.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Person of interest
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am
  
  We often have the same ABCD events at our club, i often end up being the A player. The biggest factor seems to be if your C and D players can hit good drives, I’ve had some D’s that can outdrive me and is always in the short grass, and have had others who are lucky to hit it 100 yards and while keeping it in play! Those are the challenging days.
  
  This guide is just OK, most of it is fairly obviously advice. Putting strategy is very important, I think the best putter should putt 2nd or 3rd, so he gets a read, but doesn’t have the do-or-die pressure of being the final person to putt.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jive
    
    Apr 24, 2015 at 11:14 am
    
    Our club has a stag day ABCD, where the A hits from the men’s tees, the B from what some would call the old man tees, and the C&D from the ladies tees. Use everyone tee shot 3 times. Very little money on the line, but good food before, good food after and libations that whole day. Great kickstart to the season after the Masters. Format levels the playing field, usually a 5 shot gap between first and worst. More money is won or lost on the braggadocios emergency nines or cards afterwards.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Ronald Montesano
      
      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:39 am
      
      Jive,
      
      Mixing up the format is fantastic. Too many golfers are too glued to a traditional/expected format.
      
      Reply Report comment
Scott

Apr 23, 2015 at 7:31 am

The other rule:

Everyone cheats, and be prepared to have your honest score that you think will do it squashed by 3 guys in denim and a 4th man with a senior flag on his cart by 6 strokes.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am
  
  I’ve been fortunate to not play in those events, Scott. Either we are in the running or we have played so poorly that we know we won’t win. I think the tip-off to cheating is the amount of strings and mulligans purchased. If guys are buying buckets of each, you chalk it up to a good day with great friends, on a great course, followed by a great meal and fellowship.
  
  Reply Report comment
other paul

Apr 23, 2015 at 1:36 am

People that clicked “shank” are dumb. I play in a charity tournament every year and we do just about everything here. 2 of us bomb it. One accurate iron player, one putter. And one of us is solid around the green. Shot 63 last year. And won a few of the other prizes as well. Good article.

Reply Report comment
- Ronald Montesano
  
  Apr 23, 2015 at 5:26 am
  
  Other Paul,
  
  At least the shankers voted. Not every “Guide” is 100% thorough (as I found with the Push Cart piece last week) but it opens up a dialogue, making WRX a place to be for golf. I enjoy the scrambles as well. Unless you’re the greatest friend in the world, in a normal outing, you’re trying to beat your buddies. Here, you play together for a cause of sorts. Thanks for your commentary…Keep on reading and scrambling!
  
  RM
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

10 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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