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The GolfWRX Guide to Playing in a Scramble

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This story is part of our new “GolfWRX Guides,” a how-to series created by our Featured Writers and Contributors — passionate golfers and golf professionals in search of answers to golf’s most-asked questions.

Scramble tournaments mean one thing: birdie-fest! How could you not be excited to play golf where others make up for your mistakes and you get four runs at birdie on nearly every hole? Before you lies the opportunity to team up with three of your closest friends or favorite ringers.

Unfortunately, golfers or entire groups miss the point of playing in a scramble event.

There’s no right answer, but you don’t want to show up at the event without an agenda. If you’re competitive, you might be in it to win it. If you’re charitable, your goal is to raise money for the cause. If you’re generous, your No. 1 concern is to ensure that your friends have a great time and come away with a great story to tell.

You may be inclined to assume that if you’ve played one scramble, you’ve played them all. Before you fire that shot across the bow, let’s take a look at your check list for a successful scramble golf tournament.

Know your format

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It’s a bit odd to call an event a traditional scramble, but it seems that tournament organizers are jonesing to separate their tournament from the rest by way of an altered format. The traditional scramble event follows the following protocol: each golfer plays from the tee, then the group selects one drive. From there, each golfer hits a second shot and then the procedure is repeated until the ball is holed.

In recent years, the Shamble has gained some traction, perhaps to keep teams from riding one player too hard to victory. The shamble requires each golfer to tee off, then have the team select its best drive. From there, each golfer plays his own ball to the end of the hole and the team records the two best scores. While a traditional scramble score will be in the low 60s with handicap, a shamble tally doubles that figure.

Knowing your format is critical to picking your participants.

[quote_box_center]Before teeing off, work out a game plan between you and your partners,” said golf journalist Rusty Cage. “Each person has strengths and weaknesses. Depending on the format, you can cover up for each other’s mistakes.[/quote_box_center]

A number of Buffalo-area golfers and professionals chimed in with their thoughts as well — No. 1 being the need for great putters. The more guys you can get to drain those eagle and birdie putts, the better.

One club pro mentioned 300-plus yard drives. These are the white buffalos of scramble participants — rarely seen, but when you do it’s a pleasure. If you can snag yourself one of these 300-yard driving white buffalos, you’ll be looking at a bunch of birdies, eagles, and hitting from shorter distances than you’ve ever seen. If not, it may be just a helpful to have guys who know precisely how far they hit the ball, with every club in the bag. Realistic strikers help way more than the dreamers.

Preparation breeds success

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Mulligans and strings are the boon and the bane of many a scramble event. Offered before play begins by the tournament committee, mulligans are do-overs and strings are lengths of cord used to move the ball closer to the hole. Each is sold at the check-in desk, with all proceeds going to charity. I have a friend who purchases mulligans, then invariably uses each one twice. Whether he simply loses count or knows what he is doing, it’s cheating! Since he has yet to win an event, the golf gods clearly believe in karma. However, if your goal is to take home the tiny, first-place jug, then get your money in and purchase those mullies and strings.

Remember that order of play is a big deal in scramble events, so you should prepare properly within your group. There is usually one skittish player in every group, so he should hit either first or second each time to alleviate the pressure. If he hits a bad one, he has three golfers to bail him out.

If you play your weak players toward the back of the order, they’ll feel the pressure (self-imposed as it is) every time. There is usually one chap who loves the attention and jumps up to be lead-off man, no matter the shot. Try to reel him back as much as possible. Finally, there is one father figure, the guy who perceives himself as Mr. Pressure. He’ll offer a quiet nod when you ask him if he doesn’t mind the anchor slot. Keep the batting order for as long as it works, but don’t be afraid to mix things up if you get stale.

Load up your team

LongDrive

Golf offers one simple rule to all of its competitors: the hottest player wins. The local scramble brain trust, always intent on winning an event, assembles a team that includes one long driver, one solid iron player, one top-notch putter and a fourth boasting some necessary skill (like money, to purchase the mulligans and strings mentioned above). The problem with this approach is, if one of the experts is off his particular game, the team suffers appropriately. Camaraderie, rather than talent, usually wins the day. Four guys who get along, forgive each other’s misses, and keep the smiles big and the attitudes positive will capture the flag over an all-star compilation.

The other way to do this is to grab three of your greatest friends, guys who love to talk friendly smack, have a cold one and roar when the big dog eats. Whether you win or not is inconsequential; what matters is that a good time is had by all.

Let’s be honest: who brags about winning a scramble? They don’t bring you local ranking points and you can’t qualify into the state amateur by winning one. Keep your priorities in order and your head level. You’ll have a great time and your friends will invite you out to their next scramble.

Get advice from others

Opinions, like noses, are what everyone has. Throughout my fact-gathering process, I was told by experienced scramblers to have the best putter go last. One guy thought outside the box and said to have the best putter and driver hit first. If those skill guys show you the line or put it in play, it frees everyone else up to hit their best shot.

In events where everyone has to count a certain number of drives, swinging free and loose is critical. No matter what they say, however, remember that your partners are flawed. If they were great, they would be on tour somewhere, or playing in the local amateur championship. They aren’t, so they’re not. Having a great time ensures that you will play together again. The more you play together, the more likely you are to have success.

Your Reaction?
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Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Daniel

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:36 am

    Nice article, I especially like the part about preparing mentally before the round. I am usually the “A” player when I play a scramble, not because I’m a great golfer, but because I happen to be better than the guys I play with. The hard part of this is the expectation that I have to get it done if the team is going to play well. Mostly this expectation is self imposed, and it’s hard to just go out and play my game. For example, the team has a 20 ft birdie putt and I’m the last one to go. I miss the putt and get upset because I have seen the line and I didn’t make it. Now if I’m playing my own ball and miss a 20 ft birdie, it’s no big deal.
    I like the advice someone said in the comments about having the best putter putting 2nd or 3rd. It’s so hard when you’re last and you are trying to make sure you don’t leave it short, so you end up blasting it through the break.

    I guess it’s tough being a skittish A player.

  2. Steve

    Apr 27, 2015 at 11:56 am

    Here’s a head gamer tactic we’ve employed. I won’t promise that it will make you win, but it will affect other groups nearby. Eagles really are game changers in a scramble. Of course, when they happen, your team will likely be heard by other teams in the same area of the course. So what’s to stop you from letting out an equivalent cheer, no matter the score? I realized this once on an eagle putt I made from really far across the par 5’s green. We roared when the 70+ footer went in. The green was perched about 20′ above (by elevation) another green and tee box. That roar HAD to get in the heads of our opponents. Pick your locations wisely (for most effect) and let that same roar happen even if your anchor misses that 12′ birdie by an inch. He taps in quickly but the team reacts like they’ve gained serious strokes on the field.

    It’s just a head game. And your opponents will feel the multiplied pressure, no doubt.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 10:56 am

      What goes around, comes around. If everyone employs that strategy, will it be golf? More important, will it be good form?

  3. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 24, 2015 at 10:35 am

    Rule #1… you always need one player who is good at flagging down the cart girl.

  4. Gary Gutful

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:54 pm

    Enjoy playing scrambles but typically find that it’s the team with burglars that do really well. A 18+ handicapper who generally hits the ball well but has the odd blowout the stops their handicap coming down is perfect for this type of format. Pair two burglars with two solid single figure golfers and you are laughing.

  5. Tre

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:34 pm

    Good article. The most fun I have ever had on a course was a scramble with a group of teachers I worked with on the last day of school. Any tips on when to use the mulligans and strings? We had two, used them on long birdie putts which changed a par to a birdie. I could see benefits to using them on approaches and par 5s in 2.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:04 pm

      I would use them early, to gain momentum or to keep it going. If you save them for later, the pressure to make them count multiplies. I am a fan of approaches on par fives, so that’s another good option.

  6. Joe

    Apr 23, 2015 at 5:00 pm

    I played in a scramble with a marker where we legitimately shot 50 (-22). Par on one and then 5 eagles (1 on a par 4) and birdied the other 12 holes. We missed from 10 feet on 1 and then made everything including a few putts over 30 feet. It can happen, but with the same group we haven’t shot better than -17 in over 15 years. -20 3 straight years as mentioned above is some high quality BS.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:00 am

      I agree, Joe. We’ve played in a scramble at a course you can get, and only once did we catch lightning in a bottle. It was a great ride, though!!

  7. Andy

    Apr 23, 2015 at 4:18 pm

    For 10 years in SE Missouri, I played 4-man scrambles for money. For 9 holes, the “A” players picked his partners, every player puts in 10 bucks, winning 4some takes all… Then do it again & again, heck all day.
    As an “A” player, my first choice was the best iron player, somebody that hits it close. Even with 4 of us putting on 30-footers, need luck to hole it. 10-footers we make 99% of the time.
    Next pick is the good putter, last pick was the long drive guy, which is funny in that Sean Fister was in this scramble game for years, and nobody hits it longer…

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 8:15 pm

      That’s an excellent point, Andy. Someone who can stuff it in there and feels no pressure is better than golf.

  8. MarkNado

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:59 pm

    The most important thing in scrambles is to down shooting 10 under after playing by saying things like “we couldn’t make any putts” or “we had 3 eagle putts but they all lipped out”…that’s all I ever hear

  9. MarkNado

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:51 pm

    Make sure one of your teammates uses a pencil wedge.

  10. Truth

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm

    I love playing a good scramble its always a lot of fun because i never really care about winning. Simple fact is there will always be one group who takes it too seriously and will end up cheating. Im not saying they wouldnt of had a low score anyway but there will always be a handful of holes they lip out a putt and count it anyway or someone takes a second go at it. You will never escape cheaters in this format just dont let it bother you have a good time

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:01 am

      It’s up to every group to police the one ahead of them. We know what birdie putts and birdie/eagle reactions look like. If the guys were blaise about it all day, they didn’t shoot the number they turned in.

  11. Nate

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    Great article, Ronald. Thanks for posting this!

    I prefer to go with a set order off of the tee and on the green but go with the “next man up” philosophy for approach shots and chipping.

    Off the tee, I think the ideal setup is to have the most consistent or accurate guy go first so that he can put one in play. Have your weakest or most skiddish player go 2nd so that you can minimize the liability, and then have the big dogs go 3rd and 4th. On the green, I really like having the best putter go first so that he can show the group the appropriate line and pace. I’ve found it difficult though when putters 2-4 struggle to make consistent contact. Nothing worse than having your best putter go first to show you the line and then have the other 3 guys mishit their putts – a waste of great opportunity!

    At the end of the day, playing well in scrambles comes down to having a fun group and having at least one person get hot with the flat stick.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:35 am

      Thank you, Nate. If you only have one good putter, you won’t be in the mix. Your top putter has to be borderline arrogant about her/his stroke. You should have a mate who can hit a line, if not the hole, and she/he should go first. Everyone agrees on the line, then that “crash test dummy” goes ahead and hits the anticipated line. 2 gives it a run, then your best putter goes 3rd. If you get to #4, don’t worry if it doesn’t go in.

  12. RobG

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am

    A few years back in our company scramble me and a buddy (both avid golfers) got paired with two absolute beginners. I’m a long ball hitter, JP is phenomenal iron player and we both have decent short games and putters. We shot 58 (-14) riding basically just the two of us. If we had one more guy who could putt, a 52 probably could have happened. It is the lowest round (by 9 shots) to have been recorded in the 15 years of the tournament and it was the 2nd lowest 4-man scramble score ever posted at that golf course – the record is 56. Golf came easy that day and I doubt I will ever have another day on the course like that again.

  13. BD57

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:24 am

    My “rule” for order of play (for what it’s worth):

    Identify the person who’s going to hit last for every “shot” – who’s your anchor off the tee, on second shots, short game shots, putts? Doesn’t have to be the same person (probably isn’t).

    Once that’s done, the first to play of the other three should be the person most likely to hit a decent shot (whatever the shot may be). That person coming through allows everyone else to take a rip.

    Important (IMO) in putting is that the first player to putt be decent on speed – we want to see what the putt does when hit at decent speed so we can adjust our read accordingly (if necessary).

    Playing with friends is a VERY good idea. Scramble teams that enjoy each other’s company tend to do better.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:09 am

      Friends make the day. If you can raise a toast to each other and laugh off your foozles, you will have a great scramble.

  14. Bob Quigley

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:18 am

    Speaking of your three guys in denim comment, we have a foursome like that who the last three years have won our outing with reported scores of -20, -20 and -22. This year, we thought we would slow them down by requiring at least 4 drives from each player in their foursome. When they reported their score at 20 under, I bet them $100 to play against them any hole they wanted, me against their foursome. They selected hole # 1. They scored a double bogie and I was lucky enough to score a par. I am not so sure we will be seeing that group again!

    • BD57

      Apr 23, 2015 at 11:30 am

      Your experience is evidence of how important it is that there be little to no “Prize” for “winning.”

      Played years ago in a scramble with good friends: Husband & wife (he was a 2, she played golf in college), a long hitting buddy who was about a 5 at the time, and me (also a 2, at least back then).

      We went on a hot streak, aided by the wife playing from the women’s tees (we were using her drives all day), three of us being good putters who had a good day (H & W and me), and our long hitter having a good day. We were 15 under.

      Guys in front of us reported 16 under. There was no way … we saw pretty much every shot they hit, saw them putting, etc. There’s “celebration” in a group which is dropping putts from all over (there was in our group), and we didn’t see it there.

      BUT – – – there was no real “prize” for winning, so it didn’t matter. We’d played well, had a very good day, enjoyed each other’s company, and helped raise money for a worthy cause.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:38 am

      One word: Inconceivable!

      Another word: Awesome.

  15. Josh Spangler

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:30 am

    In arkansas we have so many good golfers …if you don’t shoot 17-20 under in a 4 man…u ain’t winning

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am

      Is that a scratch or handicap 4 man, Josh?

      • Josh A

        Apr 23, 2015 at 11:47 am

        I can’t speak for the other Josh, but I am also from Arkansas and have played in a number of scramble tournaments here. There are multiple areas in the state–Jonesboro for example–which have a number of charity scrambles each summer that are very competitive. Players will come from all across the state to compete in these, and if you’re not in the low 50s (scratch) then you have no shot at winning the championship flight. These tournaments are expensive, but also provide very generous payouts, so the top teams in these areas basically treat this as a summer scramble tour.

  16. Gorden

    Apr 23, 2015 at 9:56 am

    I like the bland draw scramble where players are put in A,B,C,D rankings by handicap. Each team is a made up of one each A<B<C<D player. Only drawback with this type scramble is the A player that is not really an A player….we all see the 10 handicap showing up with a 15 handicap but far worse is the 15 handicap showing up with a 7.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:33 am

      Good points, Gorden. If the people all know each other or are all very gregarious, the blind draw works well. Many golfers eschew this format, as they must leave their comfort zone to perform in front of golfers they don’t know.

    • Person of interest

      Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am

      We often have the same ABCD events at our club, i often end up being the A player. The biggest factor seems to be if your C and D players can hit good drives, I’ve had some D’s that can outdrive me and is always in the short grass, and have had others who are lucky to hit it 100 yards and while keeping it in play! Those are the challenging days.

      This guide is just OK, most of it is fairly obviously advice. Putting strategy is very important, I think the best putter should putt 2nd or 3rd, so he gets a read, but doesn’t have the do-or-die pressure of being the final person to putt.

      • Jive

        Apr 24, 2015 at 11:14 am

        Our club has a stag day ABCD, where the A hits from the men’s tees, the B from what some would call the old man tees, and the C&D from the ladies tees. Use everyone tee shot 3 times. Very little money on the line, but good food before, good food after and libations that whole day. Great kickstart to the season after the Masters. Format levels the playing field, usually a 5 shot gap between first and worst. More money is won or lost on the braggadocios emergency nines or cards afterwards.

  17. Scott

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:31 am

    The other rule:

    Everyone cheats, and be prepared to have your honest score that you think will do it squashed by 3 guys in denim and a 4th man with a senior flag on his cart by 6 strokes.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am

      I’ve been fortunate to not play in those events, Scott. Either we are in the running or we have played so poorly that we know we won’t win. I think the tip-off to cheating is the amount of strings and mulligans purchased. If guys are buying buckets of each, you chalk it up to a good day with great friends, on a great course, followed by a great meal and fellowship.

  18. other paul

    Apr 23, 2015 at 1:36 am

    People that clicked “shank” are dumb. I play in a charity tournament every year and we do just about everything here. 2 of us bomb it. One accurate iron player, one putter. And one of us is solid around the green. Shot 63 last year. And won a few of the other prizes as well. Good article.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 5:26 am

      Other Paul,

      At least the shankers voted. Not every “Guide” is 100% thorough (as I found with the Push Cart piece last week) but it opens up a dialogue, making WRX a place to be for golf. I enjoy the scrambles as well. Unless you’re the greatest friend in the world, in a normal outing, you’re trying to beat your buddies. Here, you play together for a cause of sorts. Thanks for your commentary…Keep on reading and scrambling!

      RM

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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