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Who are the favorites to win the FedEx Cup at East Lake?

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We have one event left in the 2013-2014 PGA Tour season, and the eighth FedEx Cup champion will be crowned by week’s end.

Twenty-nine players (Dustin Johnson isn’t competing) will vie for the FedEx Cup crown at East Lake, but who should we install as the few favorites to accomplish the feat?

Well, back in its earliest iterations, the FedEx Cup Playoffs heavily favored those at the top of the standings going into the last event.

A points reset prior to the Tour Championship was implemented in 2009, and it’s done the job of allowing players from farther back to capture the grand prize. While the 2009, 2012 and 2013 FedEx Cup champions were all in the top-five before East Lake, winner Jim Furyk was a measly 11th with one event to play in 2010. And Bill Haas jumped from 25th to 1st in the standings with his defining win in the 2012 finale.

This is to say that installing favorites just by copying and pasting the current top-five in the standings is probably unwise. A higher initial place definitely helps, but with the points reset, performance at East Lake becomes monumentally important.

Combining that with other factors, we’ve discovered the five most likely candidates for the 2014 Playoffs crown (current FedEx Cup standing in parentheses):

Billy Horschel (2)

BillyHorschel

Apologies here to FedEx Cup leader Chris Kirk (who really is a much better player than people think), but among the top in the standings, I like Horschel’s chances at the crown more.

Why?

The East Lake course itself isn’t much of a factor in this case. In recent times, the most important components to success on the layout have been great driving and short game play (around the green). Of the eight winners and runners-up since 2010, six of them have been extraordinary players off the tee. And from East Lake’s FedEx Cup inception in 2007, every single winner possessed a well-above average to elite short game, until Henrik Stenson last year.

Horschel is a fantastic driver of the golf ball, but remains one of the game’s most putrid short game artists. Kirk has never gotten much from his driving, but he’s historically owned a fabulous short game.

So it comes down to a different factor: recent form. Yes, Kirk won two weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank Championship, but followed it up with a T36 at the BMW Championship. After his stellar opening months of 2013-2014, Kirk’s season has been rather stagnant, with the win at TPC Boston more of an outlier than anything.

Horschel has struggled mightily this season, but his win at Cherry Hills appears less fluky, as he was potentially a mishit six-iron away from winning the week before.

The last time Horschel was playing this well, he went on a four-week tear, placing top-10 in all events and producing a victory and two other near wins.

Yes a shallow past history, but there is precedent and I think it manifests itself this week. Horschel’s great play should continue, and a high finish might be enough to get him the crown.

Rory McIlroy (4)

186589770MK032_2013_Austral

OK, well duh on this one. McIlroy is easily the game’s best player right now, which means that he’s most likely to dominate a field in any given week.

Really the only reason I wouldn’t pick McIlroy would be every other factor conspiring against him.

And that is not the case.

He’s actually an OK short game player, and we don’t have to tell you just how good he is with the big dog in his hands. East Lake, then, actually profiles pretty well for him.

Yes, McIlroy is not in his summer form, but that level of golf was ridiculous. Even in his reduced fall state, McIlroy is just fine. Six of his last 11 rounds have been in the 60s and if it wasn’t for an awful opening day at the Barclays, he would have all top-10 finishes in the 2014 Playoffs.

Really there are a lot of good signs for McIlroy, and add that to his current standing and immense talent, there’s no way a favorites list omits him.

Jim Furyk (7)

JimFuryk

Whatever his Sunday struggles—and zero victories in his last seven 54-hole leads is something to behold—the 44-year-old continues to match his game with some of the best.

Lost in all of the hoopla over Furyk’s final-round foibles is the fact that the ageless American has produced an extraordinary 2014. In 20 events, Furyk has top-tenned in half of them, garnered three runner-up finishes and raked in more than $5 million.

He’s possibly been the best golfer on the planet without a win this year.

Ah yes, the specter of his victory drought, winless since 2010, looms large. Furyk can mathematically win the FedEx Cup with a Tour Championship runner-up; a second-place showing pushes him to 2,700 points, just 60 short of Haas’ total in 2011.

But, more than likely, that won’t be enough. Furyk will have to win.

Despite his proclivity for the silver medal of late, the 44-year-old can be victorious at East Lake. For one, he has done it before, in 2010 when he captured the FedEx Cup crown as well. His results at the Tour Championship since have been rather middling, but the course sets up nicely for his excellent driving and premier short-game play.

Yeah, yeah, I get it 0-for-7 of late. Streaks like this can be broken at any time though, especially from a player who’s historically been a decent closer aside from this relatively small sample in his decades-long career. (And bad luck is a factor too. As Jason Sobel notes, four of these seven failures occurred even with a sub-70 final round. You can’t blame Furyk for running into buzzsaws like Tim Clark.)

Furyk has silently been a force this year. Expect him to contend this week, and if he’s close on Sunday, there’s no guarantee that he wilts.

Matt Kuchar (8)

MattKuchar

You can only use logic so much in a sport that seems to pride itself in enraging prognosticators. That’s where Matt Kuchar steps in.

Really there isn’t that much pointing to Kuch as FedEx Cup Champion by Sunday evening. His all-around game allows him to contend almost anywhere but is not especially adept for East Lake. His record at the course backs that up—a single top-10 in four starts. And his form has been extremely stagnant following his whirlwind opening four months of 2014.

The forecast from the important factors is not sunny for Kuchar.

Sometimes though, that doesn’t matter, as Haas proved in 2011. Kuchar tends not to go too long without a high-level performance (whether that be a win or a close call), and we’re now almost five months removed from his last one of those.

He’s due, then.

Kuchar has also started to make it a habit of winning important events that aren’t majors. Maybe the Tour Championship is the next one on that list, with the FedEx Cup winner’s haul to boot.

Call it a hunch, or outright conjecture, whatever. The 2014 finale might signal the further rise of Kuuuuuuuch.

Sergio Garcia (13)

SergioGarcia

You can look at Garcia’s 2014 in two ways.

In one sense, he’s played arguably some of the best golf of his career. The Spaniard is second in the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained: Total category, and the 34-year-old has put that insane form toward five TOP-THREES and nine top-tens in 15 PGA Tour starts.

And when you add his half-dozen totals from the European Tour, you can tack on two more top-threes, including a victory.

On the other hand, nobody (not even Jim Furyk) has extracted less from his play than Garcia. Every player in the top-seven of Strokes Gained: Total has at least one PGA Tour win this season—except Garcia. You thought Jim Furyk’s three runner-ups in 2014 were tough to swallow? Including his European Tour data, Garcia has four, and two more third place finishes to add to the pile.

Even more sadly, Garcia played well enough to win the Open Championship and the World Golf Championship at Firestone only to run into Rory McIlroy’s world-beater persona.

OK, this is starting to sound like a woe-is-me tale Garcia was famous for in the past. I do have a point.

Garcia’s form has been consistently phenomenal in 2014. His first two Playoff performances were underwhelming, but he got back on track with a T4 at Cherry Hills.

A poor showing at East Lake seems improbable at this point. A putrid result there would mean three such performances in four starts, which is extremely out of character for 2014 Sergio Garcia.

We can pretty confidently predict that Garcia will be in the thick of it on Sunday. With the Spaniard’s numerous close calls less a series of choke jobs and more the work of luck and circumstance, the law of averages suggests that Garcia’s next foray near the top of the leaderboard will net him a victory.

And with a win at the Tour Championship, Garcia might need a little help, but he would have a great shot at the FedEx Cup Trophy.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Golfraven

    Sep 9, 2014 at 4:13 pm

    The winner takes it all (on last day). No wonder Rory is not too bothered winning recent events and chooses to practice his putting during last weekend’s rounds – four putting etc. I bet someone gave him this challenge to make a mickey out of short distance putts to gaine some confidence for the finals. You nailed it Rory and good luck.
    May the odds be ever in your favor!

  2. NZTYN8

    Sep 9, 2014 at 2:49 pm

    No Fowler love?

    • Christosterone

      Sep 9, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      Fowler has a good year going but he is not a great closer.
      He’s not even a good closer.
      Very fine working pro golfer but 1 win is hard to put any stock in.

      • Rich

        Sep 10, 2014 at 7:11 am

        And Furyk and Kuchar are? Kuchar may have one this season but should have one at least 2 others and Furyk hasn’t won since 2010 and also should have at least one win this year and they got a mention. And Sergio hasn’t exactly run away with his opportunities this year either. I think NZTYN8 makes a good point.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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