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Carry on: Tour caddies make the right move in organizing APTC

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So this is what happens when they cancel the caddie races. Many of the most high-profile caddies in professional golf, as well as members of the rank and file, have banded together to form the Association of Professional Tour Caddies (APTC) in order to create both a unified voice and lobby.

Now, before you say, “These guys get paid hundred of thousands of dollars to carry a bag,” it’s important to remember that professional caddies do much more than merely hand a player his/her club; they are vital to the success of professional golfers.

One of the best brief summaries of the roles caddie play beyond charting courses, giving yardages, and carrying bags was written by Larry Dorman in the New York Times during the course of the Tiger Woods-Steve Williams split:

“[Caddies] are traffic cops, psychiatrists and meteorologists. They are chauffeurs, butlers, and bodyguards, buddies, sidekicks and frequent dinner companions. When things get really tough, they are guard dogs, attack dogs.”

The “dogs” are often not treated with the same level of respect by tournament hosts and venues as players.

At The Barclays, according to APTC President James Edmondson, the following occurred during a rain delay:

“A security guy came in, started berating us, asking to see everyone’s ID, and then began kicking out our families into the rain. We all thought, ‘Would they ever do this to the players in their area?’ That’s when we decided to have a meeting.”

The result of that meeting, attended by half of the caddies looping in New York that week: a unanimous vote to become an association. The group hired the law firm of Barlow, Garsek & Simon to represent them and established a board of caddies, which includes Tiger Woods’ caddie, Joe LaCava.

As Christian Dennie, an attorney for the caddies said:

The caddies play an instrumental role in the success of tour players and the success of professional golf. In an effort to further their profession, caddies have united to provide more information about their role in professional golf and obtain group benefits that will allow them to have retirement accounts and health care like many Americans who watch golf each week.

Standard pay for a caddie on the PGA Tour is a $1,000 a week plus 5-to-10 percent of a player’s winnings. Sure, if you’re Joe LaCava, Steve Williams, Fluff Cowan, or Bones Mackay, maybe you’re making close to seven figures. But what if you’re carrying a bag for Ken Duke, 50th on the PGA Tour money list at $1,722,583, making 5-to-10 percent of that number plus $1000 a week? Or Casey Wittenberg, 150th on the money list at $425,395?

Carrying a bag on tour beats the proverbial burger flipping from a financial point of view to be sure, but what of benefits, health insurance, retirement accounts, etc? As caddies aren’t formally employed by the Tour, they aren’t recipients of standard benefits afforded to employees of a large, immensely profitable organization.

It’s appropriate to remember, too, that prior to Walter Hagen’s 1920 Open Championship dressing-in-his-limousine stunt (and the succeeding U.S. Open), touring pros weren’t even permitted to change in the host club’s locker room. Beyond this specific formal barrier, the men placing pegs in the ground were generally treated more like traveling circus performers than revered athletes.

The PGA Tour itself—which, among many other things, contributed to reversing the above—was only formed in the late 1960 as money from television contracts began to pour into the pockets of the PGA of America. It was at this point that those entertaining Americans on the fairways collectively stood up and said they felt they ought to rewarded appropriately for their efforts.

Professional caddies are faced with a similar situation today: needing to formally legitimize a profession that has evolved and become quite legitimate in significant ways but hasn’t in equally significant others.

Long gone are the days of a pro picking the local caddie from the pit to schlep his bag for the week. It’s time for professional tour caddies to be appropriately organized and represented, and the APTC is the right move.

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30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. Albert Sewill

    Nov 20, 2013 at 9:22 am

    It was only a matter of time before this happened! The modern caddy is very under-appreciated.

  2. What a stupid I am!

    Nov 13, 2013 at 10:42 pm

    From Golf Digest’s September 2012 issue:

    A FEW PROS make the tour an all-day, everyday job. For all the money in the world I couldn’t work for Vijay Singh. It would drive me crazy to stand there and watch a guy hit 7,000 golf balls a day–I couldn’t have watched Ben Hogan hit 7,000 golf balls a day. Paul Tesori is a former tour player who worked for Vijay until Vijay called him one Christmas morning to see if he wanted to meet at the range. Paul said working 366 days a year was a bit much. He’s now working closely with Webb Simpson.

    http://www.golfdigest.com/magazine/2012-09/mark-long-stories#ixzz2kaUtNCS5

  3. jeev

    Nov 11, 2013 at 11:21 am

    Mods! I see a politically charged post that should be edited/removed!

  4. snowman0157

    Nov 10, 2013 at 4:54 pm

    ok, no offense.. it is low-skilled labor. So if they choose to caddie, travel a lot, work on commission and pay their own expenses, for 50K / yr gross, god bless ’em. They probably like the lifestyle. If not, get another skill and stay home. Nobody owes nobody a certain standard of living.

  5. Enabler

    Nov 8, 2013 at 4:10 pm

    Caddy can make a huge impact on the performance of the player. The role of the touring caddy is much like coaching and staff for other sports. Anyone who travels 30 weeks a year no matter the perks sacrifices traditional life relationships with children and family. The PGA should evaluate the situation and offer up recognition to the profession and their role in the tour. Appears it is another example of squeaky wheel gets oil… This organization should help the profession. It is past time the members of the PGA recognizes the touring caddy significance to this sport.

  6. AJ

    Nov 8, 2013 at 9:33 am

    Just a fairly amusing note regarding caddies – one of the guys at my club (Scottish fella) is good mates with Alistair McLean, tour caddie to Colin Montgomerie for a number of years.

    Regarding the ‘hiring and firing’ process, Alistair recently worked for Henrik Stenson (post Monty, after Fanny retired) and effectively ‘sacked’ Stenson because he wasn’t playing well enough.

    Safe to say a couple of years after that sacking, he regrets the move!

  7. CWA

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:04 pm

    CWA!!!!!

  8. Mike M

    Nov 7, 2013 at 8:07 pm

    I think this is great for the caddies, its going to help them a lot with their careers. i don’t think its right that ernie els has a caddie becomes friends with dan quinn and then drops his regular caddie… contracts contracts contracts !

    • rB

      Nov 11, 2013 at 6:52 pm

      AJ, I have known EE for 20 years and RR during that span..
      … there is aLOT more to their history than Ernie meeting DQ.!!
      Sometimes change is a good thing..

  9. Unbelievable!

    Nov 7, 2013 at 7:41 pm

    There are MASSIVE amounts of people who work WAY harder for a lot less. All of you guys saying 50,000 a year isn’t a lot of money… It’s about 900 a week….

    That’s 22.50 an hour for a 40 hour job.

    50,000 is probably above average pay for entry level management in most major corporations….

    That’s average pay for Electricians… Plumbers… Framers…

    It’s more than most Teachers, Fireman, Police Officers… Public Defenders and Prosecuters…

    Poor, sad, underpaid little caddie….

    It’s great they banded together to help improve their lives… Bravo… It truly is needed and deserved… However… Stop complaining about the money…. You know what that is…

    Pathetic.

    • Bobcat43

      Nov 8, 2013 at 8:44 pm

      I for one wouldn’t want to be on the road for 25-30+ weeks a year for $50k and deal with a Tour Pro’s every whim. When I was fresh out of college I was making far more than that for being on the road that much (back in the 90’s, and it wasn’t management). But obviously someone wants that job. And someone always will want that job.

      But I will say that if Bones, Fluff or (insert any tour caddy) decide to price themselves out of the market. That’s their decision. I don’t watch professional golf to see them huck a bag and pitch grass in the air. Not to belittle their job, but someone will do their job and those great players will still be great.

      And I cannot stress this point enough… the PGA TOUR is the players (not their caddies). Joe Lacava may be cool but he’s not the “Golden Goose”. Will Tiger have to cross a picket line on the first tee? No.

      When a minority share partner tries to force the majority share partner to act, it will go poorly for the minority share partner. Frankly, below average tour caddies just like below average tour players should make less less (relatively speaking). It keeps the ranks fresh and the competition strong.

  10. john flavia

    Nov 7, 2013 at 4:06 pm

    This has started me thinking in another way.

    The touring pro’s have it pretty good, I’ve read how their retirement packages are second to none, certainly the NFL, NBA, MLB doesn’t even compare (something like $10,000 gets added to their retirement accounts for every tournament they make the cut?). The PGA just announced they have raised the PGA Championship purse to $10 mill, the most of any tournament/major and has recently been boasting about $1 billion for charity raised. So you’re telling me that you have done nothing in all this time for the working man of the industry, the caddy?, to improve them?

    • Wyatt

      Nov 9, 2013 at 8:25 am

      They work more then 40hour a week. Plus has to pay all of their own expenses… You guys do not know the facts unless you are in the profession. Quit JUDGING. The PGA DOES NOTHING for the caddies at all no retirement either… The player if “vested” will retire a millionaire because they get money from the PGA… No where does the caddies get any of this…

  11. Ralph

    Nov 7, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    Ah the dark side of professional golf. Good for them for trying to improve their lot in life.
    Professional golfers are independent contractors. Just as the caddies ultimately are. One can fire the other at a moments notice with no forewarning.
    They’d better be careful for what they wish.
    I foresee the day when local yokels once again come back into the caddy game. The day will come when the pro tours allow GPS and lasers during play. Might be a while.

  12. Bobcat43

    Nov 7, 2013 at 2:27 pm

    Real quick… Are these guys forced into this job? Seems to me that schlepping a bag for Casey Whittenburg for $48k/yr is a crappy job. But I don’t think Casey puts a gun to anyone’s head either. But that’s my opinion there maybe someone who would do that job for free.

    So either find a better player, negotiate better or just find a better job. As for the issues with kicking family members out into the rain. I’m sure that can be fixed or maybe there is another side to the story. Not sure we need to call in Richard Trumka.

    Oh and health benefits! Really are you guys serious? Our Gov’t has already fixed that problem! Just like everything it will be free for all of us! (insert sarcastic smiley here)

    So if being a Tour Caddy is such a crappy job why the heck would anyone ever do it?

  13. GolferX

    Nov 7, 2013 at 1:15 pm

    I think its a great step forward for the caddies; there is an awful lot of money being made on the PGA Tour and its time for the caddies to get some security. However, that begs the question, who pays? If they get benefits, who pays? The Tour? That particular caddie’s player?
    What happens when your player retires or moves on? What about the other Tours? We will have to see how this shakes out.
    Fairways and Greens, my friends.

  14. Double Mocha Man

    Nov 7, 2013 at 12:10 pm

    When I was a caddie I made a whopping $10 a bag and scored a Snickers candy bar at the turn if I was lucky.

    • Jon

      Nov 7, 2013 at 1:54 pm

      Congrats, Mocha Man. That’s quite a bit for someone who wants somebody to feel sorry for them.

  15. Eric

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:56 am

    breaking down the numbers.

    Ken Duke – 28 events, $1,722,583.73 in winnings in 2013
    Ken Duke’s caddie (if $1K per week, 5% for any winnings, 7% of top 10, and 10% for a win) – $172,377.14

    Take into account that he is on the road 28 weeks a year on his own dime which probably cost him $30K-$40. That means his takehome is about $135K before taxes. Yes, this is still a lot of money, but not for the top 50 in his profession for the year. And $135K is nowhere near a “fortune”.

    • Ken

      Nov 7, 2013 at 12:30 pm

      I think you are forgetting about one crucial item…endorsements

  16. john flavia

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:51 am

    Also, when you make your calculations, remember most tour players probably only play 25 tournaments = 25 weeks, so if you use the Casey Whittenburg as the example: 2013 season = 27 tournaments & $425,395 in winnings, so at $1,000/week + 5% = $27,000 + $21,270 = 48,270.
    The question of ‘who pays for caddy’s expenses’? will be a big part in determining if that is a decent salary for caddy for a low ranking tour player or not.

    • Wyatt

      Nov 9, 2013 at 8:31 am

      Caddies are responsible for all their own expenses. Ie: flight, hotel, food, car, gas… Etc… They are also responsible for their own insurance.. Ie: single plan $250-$500, family $500-$2000 A MONTH! Again know your facts quite speculating.

  17. Zak Kozuchowski

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:46 am

    Don’t forget the costs, guys. Just like tour players, caddies pay their own travel expenses.

  18. Evan

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:41 am

    I completely agree with David here. If you are Ken Duke’s Caddy and making the lower 5%, you are still clearing $100k/year. if its 10%, go ahead and bump that to around $200k a year.

  19. David

    Nov 7, 2013 at 11:34 am

    “Standard pay for a caddie on the PGA Tour is a $1,000 a week plus 5-to-10 percent of a player’s winnings. Sure, if you’re Joe LaCava, Steve Williams, Fluff Cowan, or Bones Mackay, maybe you’re making close to seven figures. But what if you’re carrying a bag for Ken Duke, 50th on the PGA Tour money list at $1,722,583, making 5-to-10 percent of that number plus $1000 a week? ”

    I don’t understand the question… that’s an absolute FORTUNE.

    • john flavia

      Nov 7, 2013 at 11:45 am

      Do caddies pay for their own expenses out of their weekly/winnings-percentage? OR is that additionally compt’d by the player? If they have to pay for their travel/hotel/food accomodations, then that can eat up most, if not all of the $1,000, unless they are sleeping in shared rooms, etc, and eating minimal meals at fast food joints, imo.
      When I go to my annual meetings (4-day trip), even when I try to keep expenses down by staying in the not-so-hottest of hotels, try not to eat fancy dinners, I can’t seem to get away with less than ~$1,200 or so in expenses, including airfare.

      • Chris

        Nov 7, 2013 at 11:52 am

        They normally pay out of pocket. It helps if they have friends in different cities. My buddy stays with me when he comes to town. I can’t tell you how pumped he is to save that few hundred plus have a laundry machine at his disposal. I think he did about 6 loads when he came in a few months ago.

      • Wyatt

        Nov 9, 2013 at 8:32 am

        Yes they are responsible for all their own expenses… Airfare, hotel, food, car, gas, etc….

    • Chris

      Nov 7, 2013 at 11:48 am

      You’re completely neglecting the fact that they have to use that money to pay rent wherever they live plus the hotels/motels that they stay at 7 days a week when on the road. Factor in gas (keeping in mind that tourney’s tend to not be that close to the previous one), food and occasional airfare. They’re not making a fortune unless your pro is. They’re on the road all the time. My friend has been a caddie on tour for the past 3+ years. They had to go to web.com playoffs to keep their card. He talked to caddies there (the web.com loopers) and realized that he had it pretty good. Those guys make nothing. They split rooms and/or sleeping in cars some of the time.

    • Jay

      Nov 7, 2013 at 12:35 pm

      A general rule of thumb is that a private contractor bills out at about 3X what a salaried individual would make in the same role. This is due to differences in tax laws, holiday pay, sick time, ease of termination and numerous other issues. ALso, as he will work in 20+ states during the year he can look forward to a 500+ page tax return.

      SO if you take Ken Dukes caddy at the mid range of the $100-$200k and say $150k, then that is the equivalent of $50k annually. In reality not very good pay for some one who is traveling 30 weeks out of the year.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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