Ok, so we have had a few tournaments last year where people where not so honest with their handicaps. Several of us want to put a stop to this. I knew about this statitics based on the odds of players playing well above said handicap. Can someone help explain this to me so I can upderstand it better.

Here is what I was able to pull off the USGA site.

Handicap Ranges

0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 GREATER THAN 30

Net Differential odds odds odds odds odds

0 5:1 5:1 6:1 5:1 5:1

-1 10:1 10:1 10:1 8:1 7:1

-2 23:1 22:1 21:1 13:1 10:1

-3 57:1 51:1 43:1 23:1 15:1

-4 151:1 121:1 87:1 40:1 22:1

-5 379:1 276:1 174:1 72:1 35:1

-6 790:1 536:1 323:1 130:1 60:1

-7 2349:1 1200:1 552:1 229:1 101:1

-8 20111:1 4467:1 1138:1 382:1 185:1

-9 48219:1 27877:1 3577:1 695:1 359:1

-10 125000:1 84300:1 37000:1 1650:1 874:1

Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap

The values in this table only include pairs of best negative differentials and determines how many strokes a golfer's handicap should be reduced to allow his best two differential likelihood to be an acceptable "rarity".

As an example, consider the golfer whose best two differentials of his last 20 scores were -6 and -8 and the player has a handicap of 15. This event would have a 1 in 7,249 chance. If a threshold of 1 in 258 was established as the limit of reasonability, this player should have his handicap lowered three strokes (three diagonal steps to the left in the following table).

0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10

0 27 46 92 199 408 869 1808 2480 3871 9180 85779

-1 46 13 26 58 118 253 526 722 1126 2672 24967

-2 96 26 20 43 89 191 398 546 853 2023 18907

-3 199 58 43 59 121 258 537 737 1150 2728 25492

-4 408 118 89 121 200 427 888 1219 1903 4512 42163

-5 869 253 191 258 427 821 1708 2343 3657 8672 81030

-6 1808 526 398 537 888 1708 3385 4644 7249 17189 ****

-7 2480 722 546 737 1219 2343 4644 6225 9716 23041 ****

-8 3871 853 1150 1903 3657 2343 7249 9716 14912 35361 ****

-9 9180 2672 2023 2728 4512 8672 17109 23041 35361 82951 ****

-10 85779 24967 18907 25492 42163 81030 **** **** **** **** ****

Here is what I was able to pull off the USGA site.

Handicap Ranges

0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 GREATER THAN 30

Net Differential odds odds odds odds odds

0 5:1 5:1 6:1 5:1 5:1

-1 10:1 10:1 10:1 8:1 7:1

-2 23:1 22:1 21:1 13:1 10:1

-3 57:1 51:1 43:1 23:1 15:1

-4 151:1 121:1 87:1 40:1 22:1

-5 379:1 276:1 174:1 72:1 35:1

-6 790:1 536:1 323:1 130:1 60:1

-7 2349:1 1200:1 552:1 229:1 101:1

-8 20111:1 4467:1 1138:1 382:1 185:1

-9 48219:1 27877:1 3577:1 695:1 359:1

-10 125000:1 84300:1 37000:1 1650:1 874:1

Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap

The values in this table only include pairs of best negative differentials and determines how many strokes a golfer's handicap should be reduced to allow his best two differential likelihood to be an acceptable "rarity".

As an example, consider the golfer whose best two differentials of his last 20 scores were -6 and -8 and the player has a handicap of 15. This event would have a 1 in 7,249 chance. If a threshold of 1 in 258 was established as the limit of reasonability, this player should have his handicap lowered three strokes (three diagonal steps to the left in the following table).

0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10

0 27 46 92 199 408 869 1808 2480 3871 9180 85779

-1 46 13 26 58 118 253 526 722 1126 2672 24967

-2 96 26 20 43 89 191 398 546 853 2023 18907

-3 199 58 43 59 121 258 537 737 1150 2728 25492

-4 408 118 89 121 200 427 888 1219 1903 4512 42163

-5 869 253 191 258 427 821 1708 2343 3657 8672 81030

-6 1808 526 398 537 888 1708 3385 4644 7249 17189 ****

-7 2480 722 546 737 1219 2343 4644 6225 9716 23041 ****

-8 3871 853 1150 1903 3657 2343 7249 9716 14912 35361 ****

-9 9180 2672 2023 2728 4512 8672 17109 23041 35361 82951 ****

-10 85779 24967 18907 25492 42163 81030 **** **** **** **** ****