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NFL Playoff pickem contest (18-19)


246 replies to this topic

#61 touch

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:37 AM

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#62 doctoro

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:29 AM

View Posttouch, on 12 January 2019 - 05:41 PM, said:

View PostCHuntsman, on 12 January 2019 - 02:12 PM, said:

View Postdoctoro, on 12 January 2019 - 09:35 AM, said:

View Postknock it close, on 09 January 2019 - 02:15 AM, said:

Sorry I'm late but here we go

Colts 56.5
Chiefs -5.5

Cowboys 49.5
Rams -7.5

Chargers 45.5
Patriots -4.5

Eagles 51.5
Saints -7.5

I want to root for teams I can not bring myself to pick because of the lines.  I am rooting for the Rams but no way giving 7.5 points to a hot team with a stout defense against a jittery QB.  I am rooting for the Saints but dread giving 7.5 points to the Playoff Whisperer Nick Foles.

SO, I might have to pick a couple of totals to offset my agitated state of confusion.  

The weather outside is frightening in Kansas City Snow early changing to freezing rain and sleet around game time which might bode well for Damian Williams and Marlon Mack in fantasy football spheres.  The impact of the snow itself, should not be a big deal.  But the sleet and freezing rain might tamp down splash plays in the passing game.  Forcing teams to put together short passes and executing all of the routes in the route tree with RB's and tight ends, Kelce is a stud in this scenario, factoring in the passing game.  The over /under is still going to approach 50+ but I feel the clock will tick just a little bit more in this environment per drive.  I will take the Under in the Chiefs/Colts 56.5  This game is also inside a touchdown so I will take the Chiefs -5.5.  Contrarian Parlay Alert!-Parlay Alert!  Colts have had a great run but have not played any top team of merit this year.  I love Frank Reich and Luck but have to take the Chiefs at home.

Let's travel down to Nawlins' and look at what we have here!  I think the Saints are going to win this game, but who in the hell cares what I think?  Nick Foles is the Playoff Whisperer.  I think the Saints pull this out, but I like the Over in the Dome.  7.5 is to much blood for me and Nick Foles.  I will take the Over 51.5 Eagles/Saints  The Eagles defense is playing much better, but I have to believe Brees and M.Thomas help push the score up to the upper twenties to Thirty range,
helping the likelihood of the over hitting with the Eagles pushing to keep up with the Saints and Brees.

Man, I want to take the Chargers to give Brady his walking papers.  Go Chargers!  Go Chargers!  GO Bolts!  Not going to bet against the Patriots at home with 2 weeks to prepare.  Take the Patriots on the money line, but I would lean Chargers + the points...not touching this game because I will be rooting hard for the Chargers.  But cannot ignore the Brady factor at home in the playoffs.  The rub here is that if any team can beat the Patriots I think it might be the Chargers if they could stay with the run game.  But Belichick is the better coach, and he will out coach just enough to stop the Chargers tendencies.  

Rams vs Cowboys should be a very interesting game.  If Dallas on the road can get pressure on Goff it might be a huge upset in the making.  The Cowboys secondary is not all that great.  A pass rush will be key for Dallas to have any chance in this game.  A gimpy Cole Beasley does not bode well.  If Beasley, B Jarwin are out, look for Tavon Austin to contribute more in the passing game.  Bottom line Ezekiel Elliott and A Cooper will have to have big days.  This game is almost impossible to handicap.  I would love to grab the Rams -7.5 but I think Dallas can pressure Goff enough to keep their offense away from the big splash plays.  Rams will be able to rush up the middle so Prescott will need to roll out and pass. short dump offs to Zeke Elliott and T Austin.  A Cooper may not get open quick enough for Prescott to find him.  
Dallas can still win this game if they impose their will with the running game and roll out Dak as a runner and a few improvised scrambling passes.
Rams run defense is not great.  So I will take the Cowboys +7.5


Chiefs -5.5
Under 56.5 Chiefs/Colts
Over 51.5 Eagles/Saints
Cowboys +7.5


Moneyline Picks for Touch
Rams,Patriots, Saints, Chiefs...Home is where the Heart Is!

Don't we have to pick each game?

Possibly so , or then again maybe not. Either way I think I speak for the majority of you saying we let the good doc slide this week.
After all he is busting his a** at a high end steak house in Northern Va. and not able to see the Magic man one bit.
That is enough torture for doctoro the 40+ years NFL fan.  
Just my two bits.  



Magic Man Mahomes


He'll hold serve at snowy Arrowhead!  You folks from the other great Missouri city are so fortunate.  Jealous in Carolina.
Posted Image

Patrick Mahomes one of my Fave Guys in the NFL with the QB Whisperer Andy Reid one feeds the other.  Andy Reid deserves a ton of accolades letting him develop behind Alex Smith a game manager of the Andy Reid Offense, playing late last year, and then a full training camp with Mahomes as the starter.  Great QB's have great coaching also.  Ask Tom Brady.  
Mahomes sure to be the # 1 QB off the board in fantasy drafts next year...as a matter of fact, I see a big changing of the guard with young guys moving into consideration and older guys becoming late round starters in fantasy drafts...falling A Rodgers, T Brady, B Roethlisberger, C Newton, M Ryan, D Brees, these guys will still get drafted in most cases but not as high as in the past.  Rodgers still top 5 and Brady still in top 6-7.  K Cousins might not even get picked as a starter on fantasy rosters next year who knows?  

The Young Guns will come riding in on their steel horses and take over fantasy rosters nationwide, mainly because of their ability to run although not all of them  L Jackson, M Trubisky, J Allen, should be viable for their ability to scramble for chunk yardage.  Wentz will rack up air yards but will scramble when he has too.  B Mayfield and Mahomes are my two favorites of the Brat Pack.  Sam Darnold could also crack int there if they build up that offense.  

Yes, the Guard is changing and just in time because to be honest I was getting bored with the state of the NFL two years ago.  I am more excited to watch games now. I just wish the officiating was not so inconsistent.

Edited by doctoro, 13 January 2019 - 09:30 AM.


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#63 highergr0und

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:25 PM

I want to see Mahomes after D coordinators have an offseason to build schemes around stopping him. Same with Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield, Allen, etc. Lamar Jackson is already basically toast IMO, a worse version of Robert Griffin.

It is darn hard to be a great NFL QB. And folks are often quick to annoint the next league saviors but it takes a few seasons of success before we can really start talking.

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#64 JackpotJohnny

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:48 PM

As a lifelong San Diegan, and long time San Diego Chargers season ticket holder, I couldn’t have been happier with today’s game.


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#65 touch

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:55 PM

View Posttouch, on 10 January 2019 - 08:53 PM, said:

Divisional Round
My selections

Cheifs - 5.5 ---  ( I originally had Indy, but with the weather I am switching away from the dome team)

Cowboys + 7.5 --- the better Defense gets the cover. The 7 and a hook is way to much to pass up.

New England - 4.5 --- Love this one, it's the selection I have the most confidence in.
   You face the Ravens in 2 out of the last 3 weeks ?( I think) Then you are banged up.
   Plus you have to travel all the way east again and play this time in Foxboro?
   Chargers lose by 7 or more.

Eagles +7.5 ---  Here too I switched my pick after further study. The Saints D is stout against the run, but that
  Saints D can be thrown on somewhat successfully. I'll take a shot with "playoff magic" Foles getting
  a TD and the hook.

I am hoping to go 4 and 0 this week and be in the mix in this sucka coming into the final 2 weeks.
Now wouldn't that be something to go from worst to first? !   it isn't happening, so call your man and bet the
other way on my picks. You probably will make bank. Then you can buy your gal a ton of flowers, clothes, and a nice dinner
out for Valentine's!   


Posted Image

So I posted Thursday. I changed two picks in less than 24 hours to the correct sides (see above).
I also missed going 4-0 by one point.
Thanks Cowgirls.

3-1 for this week

Playoffs total
5-3

passing grade so far.......who knew?

Edited by touch, 13 January 2019 - 07:56 PM.

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#66 highergr0und

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 12:14 AM

Ouch. Back down to earth this week. At least I'm 500 overall.

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#67 Petethreeput

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:13 AM

1-3, and this is the most success I had this weekend.

If my weekend is any indication, Las Vegas will be here for at least another day.

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#68 CHuntsman

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:43 AM

View PostCHuntsman, on 12 January 2019 - 02:13 PM, said:

View PostCHuntsman, on 10 January 2019 - 02:59 PM, said:

View Postknock it close, on 09 January 2019 - 02:15 AM, said:

Sorry I'm late but here we go

Colts 56.5
Chiefs -5.5

Cowboys 49.5
Rams -7.5

Chargers 45.5
Patriots -4.5

Eagles 51.5
Saints -7.5

KC -5.5

DAL +7.5

LAC +4.5

NO -7.5

I'll regret this most likely, changing my KC pick to the under in that game.

Meh!!! 1-3

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#69 adam667220

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:34 AM

The games this week began in the best possible way with a KC rout of the Colts which leads to the first EVER home AFC Championship for KC. Tickets go on sale at noon, need to decide if I'm going to pull the trigger. Not sure what I think of NE right now. They had a slower year than people expected but have come out guns blazing their last two games. BUT they've struggled on the road and KC is an entirely different team at home. I like our chances. I posted the picture before, but KC got 8-10 inches of snow on Friday and Saturday. Calling for more snow Friday/Saturday of this week leading up to the game on Sunday night. Snow will obviously be cleared by then, but the temps for the game will be 14-18 degrees.

Once KC won, I didn't care how my picks played out, but DAL didn't quite cover for me and NO started so horrible that they didn't either. 2-2 this week.

playoffstandings2.JPG
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#70 touch

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 12:01 PM

^
Pull the trigger. See the Magic in person. Like you said the Chiefs are better at Arrowhead.
Oh and take a flask of a tasty liquor. Rep those of us on this thread there Adam!

Posted Image
Posted Image

Edited by touch, 14 January 2019 - 12:04 PM.

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#71 adam667220

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 12:06 PM

View Posttouch, on 14 January 2019 - 12:01 PM, said:

^
Pull the trigger. See the Magic in person. Like you said the Chiefs are better at Arrowhead.
Oh and take a flask of a tasty liquor. Rep those of us on this thread there Adam!

I tried unsuccessfully to get some through one of the presales. Go on sale to the public in 55 minutes. We'll see how it goes. If I can actually get through to get some, I'm doing it.
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#72 touch

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 12:11 PM

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#73 touch

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 12:12 PM

LOL
too funny not to share with you fellas.

Posted Image

Edited by touch, 14 January 2019 - 12:19 PM.

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#74 Qqq123xx

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 01:17 PM

Well missed 4-0 by a missed 52 yd. fg.
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#75 adam667220

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 01:57 PM

Well that was short lived. Tickets were sold out before I even got through the queue. I'll check the secondary market once it gets closer to game day. They'll get reasonable when its 10 degrees and a foot of snow.

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#76 touch

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:53 PM

View PostQqq123xx, on 14 January 2019 - 01:17 PM, said:

Well missed 4-0 by a missed 52 yd. fg.

Wow.
Could Q of handled the pressure of leading this contest going into the divisional championship games?
Posted Image
I'm right on your heels buddy!    
Don't look over your shoulder.
I'm a coming..............
Posted Image

Edited by touch, 14 January 2019 - 03:55 PM.

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#77 doctoro

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 07:45 AM

The Final two watchable games on Championship Sunday.  Two games that will decide who goes dancing.  Two games that arguably could be more entertaining than the Super Bowl itself. The last two games back to back that we will be able to watch NFL football on a Sunday until next Fall.  It's amazing that the 4 best teams in the NFL have made it to the Finals as it should be.  I am a huge fan of the hot underdog coming along to steal the thunder.  But looking back at some of the most exciting games of the year we all know the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots were involved in them.  The Divisional games were kind of anti-climatic except maybe the Saints-Eagles. The forecast where I live is for a mixed mess of freezing precipitation so most people will be at home watching football making nachos or chili, in my case I made a nice home Bolognese sauce with some Cappellini and red wine.  This weekend might be Chili.  The NFL has moved away from teams with great defenses can still make hay to a more balanced approach with the emphasis on the offense and specifically sound QB play with creative play calling.  The Bears and even the debacle the Ravens played for 3 quarters, come to mind although they were in it at the end, and a missed field goal doomed the Bears.  I am a big fan of having the bend but never break mentality on defense.  The Patriots seem to be the overall best-coached team in playoff football history.  Yes, I know Belichick has not always made the best decisions, but his overall body of work from preparing a team from training camp to gameday, and into the playoffs is unparalleled.  His next game mentality has disciples all across the NFL football coaching tree.  Some do it well Mike Vrabel, others like Matt Patricia do not do handle the full load all that well.  

If you say other great minds are also in this thing, you would be correct indeed.  Sean Peyton is one of my favorites.  Andy Reid is right there also.  But the young version of Belichick, in my opinion, would be Sean McVay.  Some of the sports talking heads on the radio are lambasting the NFL for following the trend of hiring good looking young head coaches to emulate what the Rams have done, firing a dinosaur like Jeff Fisher and dispelling the nepotism in their old NFL ways and bringing in ex-Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay.  He is a players coach, but also a game manager.  His willingness to rely on the running game against a team ranked #2 against the run was what good coaches who know their personnel does.  Gurley and CJ Anderson gashed Dallas on the line of scrimmage.  At the beginning of the season, we all marveled at how well Goff was playing when all cylinders were firing in the passing game.  But then came the injury to his most trusted slot receiver Cooper Kupp.  He rested Gurley and his gimpy knee and signed CJ Anderson only about a month ago when Malcolm Brown went down.  These coaches are in the now, finger on the pulse of the game, competing for just a split second or a half a step ahead of the others who mull and ponder just a bit too long.  They start to panic when game scripts do not follow a pre-planned course of action.  Coaches like McVay and Belichick are seemingly one step ahead.  All that said you have to love what Andy Reid has been able to do with just one full year of the Patrick Mahomes Magic show, throwing across the body on the run with accuracy is so much fun to watch.  He just might be Belichick proof, I guarantee the Patriots will try and force the Chiefs to commit to the run.  I think both teams will try and run the ball more than before.  But Brady will torch the Chiefs secondary with a clean pocket.  I see Gronkowski being used more as a decoy and a run blocker.  Best blocking tight end in football.  He could still get looks in the red zone or on a third down route. Edelman is Edelman Tom Bradys go to guy.  S. Michel beat down the Chargers will, James White is the X factor in their offense an extra wide receiver playing at running back he can do it all. The real MVP of their winning Super Bowl against Atlanta.  Brady got lucky in the last 2 Super Bowls New England won... Matt Ryan blunder, Pete Carroll blunder, IMHO.  Just like Elway with Terrell Davis doing the heavy lifting.  But because of their status and position, they get all of the accolades.      

So basically the only sense I can make out of all of this is the lowly NFC East is 3-0 against Tom Brady in the big dance.  
Thus Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning must be the greatest ever Coach and QB Combo to play the game.  Right???  Don't think so but I need to keep this light and fresh just like Sean McVay and Patrick Mahomes a nice splash

Just like a young Joe Namath back in the Day
https://youtu.be/TiQT6mdMnH0

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#78 touch

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 09:54 AM

Just leave my girl Suzie Kolber alone please Joe.

Edited by touch, 20 January 2019 - 07:53 PM.

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#79 knock it close

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 07:28 PM

Well thankfully I was in the mountains for the weekend so I didn't actually bet any of the game.

Conference championship lines:

Rams 56.5
Saints -3.5

Patriots 57.5
Chiefs -3.5
M2, maybe
915 FD
913 HD
712u 3
714 AP2 4-p
SM5 53, 59
Circa62

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#80 touch

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 07:53 PM

I'll lead off. I assume we are picking 2 selections this week ? ( if wrong please advise)


Rams +3 1/2
Chiefs -3 1/2




Posted Image

Edited by touch, 15 January 2019 - 07:58 PM.

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#81 adam667220

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 11:47 AM

Well, it wasn't cheap, but I'll be attending the KC/NE game. Look for me in the stands, I'll be the one bundled up in layers.

If we're just doing two picks (one per game) let's go with....

KC/NE UNDER - our defense is playing surprisingly well and it's going to be awfully damn cold. Can't imagine this one being a shootout, enough to cover 57.5.

NO -3.5 - I expect NO to come out a little hotter this game than the slow start to PHI. If LAR win a game these days it's on run game domination and NO had the second best rush defense in 2018. Should be enough to slow them down. Going with the SB favorite for most of the year at home.

*Updated* If we decide to do both picks per game, I'll also take KC - 3.5 and LAR/NO OVER

Edited by adam667220, 16 January 2019 - 01:12 PM.

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#82 CHuntsman

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 12:53 PM

Thoughts on picking ATS & O/U from here on out?  Gonna be tough to catch the leaders...Says the guy in the middle of the pack...

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#83 adam667220

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 01:11 PM

View PostCHuntsman, on 16 January 2019 - 12:53 PM, said:

Thoughts on picking ATS & O/U from here on out?  Gonna be tough to catch the leaders...Says the guy in the middle of the pack...

As a leader....NO WAY!  

Going into this as a general participant....I figured that would be what we did. 4 picks the first three rounds then two picks for the SB. Get as large of a sample as we can.
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#84 Petethreeput

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 02:58 PM

View Postknock it close, on 15 January 2019 - 07:28 PM, said:

Well thankfully I was in the mountains for the weekend so I didn't actually bet any of the game.

Conference championship lines:

Rams 56.5
Saints -3.5

Patriots 57.5
Chiefs -3.5

Its cold out there today.  I cannot for the life of me imagine trying to run into someone in these temperatures, even if i were a fine tuned athlete.  It just takes so much to do it because each hit is that much worse in the cold.  Years ago there was an amazing show called the "Year without a Santa Claus" and whoever invented it was a genius.  You had good v evil but not easily identified, cold hot, mother nature was very important as was the young boy who went from the cynic to the believer and Christmas was saved.  This year the KC game is selected with the heat miser and cold miser in our thoughts.

"Everything I touch, snows in my clutch/ I'm too much..."  Well, at 12 at kickoff with wind chills close to 0, I am going to pick the under on the points.
"Everything I touch, melts in my clutch/ I'm too much..." Everything about this game says it will be Brady, but I want to pick Mahomes, the guy just seems to have "it" so I am going to take Mahomes and give the points.  But it should be noted, I was going to pick NE when I started that sentence.

Now, do you think the guy who invented the Heat Miser and Cold Miser did it with a clear head?  I sincerely doubt that given the year, and the idea.  So which TV writers had to have been on some hallucnagens?  Yep, Syd and Marty Croft.  You don't write about a sea monster in the storage shed, or a land with people dressed up as hats when you aren't doing something.  So in a Syd and Marty Croft pick, and their most famous show of all, I have to pick the NO game.

Did you ever notice that H.R. Puffinstuff always won.  The chips were down, and somehow he and the boy were always able to capture the magic flute right at the end.  That guy could simply get it done.  But it was always an evenly matched episode until the very end.  I see both QBs as their own H.R Puffinstuff, and I am going to pick the under, but it won't be by much.  I bet I sweat out the number until the final whistle.

Witchie-poo always jumped out to a fast start, but something always happened to slow her roll and HR came back and won the round.  I am seeing Jared Goff and the LAR offense in the role of witchie-poo here.  There is going to be a lot of nailbiting until Brees shows his true colors as a man of the people and takes control of the game.  I am going to pick the Saints and the points.

Pretty lame to pick the favorites in both games but it just feels right...

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#85 CHuntsman

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 04:39 PM

View Postknock it close, on 15 January 2019 - 07:28 PM, said:

Well thankfully I was in the mountains for the weekend so I didn't actually bet any of the game.

Conference championship lines:

Rams 56.5
Saints -3.5

Patriots 57.5
Chiefs -3.5

Not sure what we're doing but here's my picks.  I'll adjust accordingly if need be.

LAR + 3.5

LAR/NO Over 56.5

NE +3.5

NE/KC Under 57.5

Edited by CHuntsman, 16 January 2019 - 04:40 PM.


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#86 touch

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 05:11 PM

View PostCHuntsman, on 16 January 2019 - 12:53 PM, said:

Thoughts on picking ATS & O/U from here on out?  Gonna be tough to catch the leaders...Says the guy in the middle of the pack...


I'm up for SIDE and TOTAL (4 Picks) in these games this weekend.

Let's vote pretty fast.
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#87 touch

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 05:12 PM

View Postadam667220, on 16 January 2019 - 01:11 PM, said:

View PostCHuntsman, on 16 January 2019 - 12:53 PM, said:

Thoughts on picking ATS & O/U from here on out?  Gonna be tough to catch the leaders...Says the guy in the middle of the pack...

As a leader....NO WAY!  

Going into this as a general participant....I figured that would be what we did. 4 picks the first three rounds then two picks for the SB. Get as large of a sample as we can.

I am on board with doing 4 Picks this weekend.
SO that is
touch
Adam
CHuntsman  

and what say the rest?
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Ping i20 fw 19* project X
TM Jetspeed 22* hybrid Matrix
Ping i E1 5-pw cfs graphite
Ping Glide 2.0 50,56, and 60- all SS grind
Ping Sigma G Kinloch

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#88 touch

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 05:15 PM

View Postadam667220, on 16 January 2019 - 01:11 PM, said:

View PostCHuntsman, on 16 January 2019 - 12:53 PM, said:

Thoughts on picking ATS & O/U from here on out?  Gonna be tough to catch the leaders...Says the guy in the middle of the pack...

As a leader....NO WAY!  

Going into this as a general participant....I figured that would be what we did. 4 picks the first three rounds then two picks for the SB. Get as large of a sample as we can.

ok leader.......
I'm in solo second and say more picks..........I kid Adam.
So my vote cancels yours.
lol

More BODY of WORK as you say Mr. Stat Man!
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Ping i20 fw 19* project X
TM Jetspeed 22* hybrid Matrix
Ping i E1 5-pw cfs graphite
Ping Glide 2.0 50,56, and 60- all SS grind
Ping Sigma G Kinloch

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#89 highergr0und

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 05:45 PM

Ok, 4 picks

Rams/Saints UNDER
Chiefs/Pats UNDER

Saints -3.5
Chiefs -3.5

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#90 knock it close

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 08:39 PM

I don't care whatever you guys want
Saints -3.5 and the over
NE +3.5 and the under.

If only two just the side

M2, maybe
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Circa62

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