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Is the Masters lottery “random”?


84 replies to this topic

#1 stickner

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 09:18 PM


Do they pull info on people and “randomly” decide who to invite?

Discuss.


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#2 Ashley Schaeffer

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:09 PM

I know I'm 0'fer on getting invited as a player despite being a solid 3.8 with great hands!  It's very political.  Maybe next year.
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#3 OutBackHack

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:53 PM

Great question, a friend of mine has got tix 4 years in a row.

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#4 md1m

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:54 PM

View PostOutBackHack, on 03 July 2018 - 10:53 PM, said:

Great question, a friend of mine has got tix 4 years in a row.

What kind of physician is he?
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#5 ((hoselrocket))

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:25 PM

Well I’m O’fer forever still...


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#6 goosekee2

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:35 PM

This guy was denied. Curious how each person is picked.

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#7 rymail00

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 12:08 AM

I thought I signed up? Are you guys getting denial emails from the Masters?
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#8 2Bad4u

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 04:12 AM

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#9 stickner

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 06:10 AM

View Postmd1m, on 03 July 2018 - 10:54 PM, said:

View PostOutBackHack, on 03 July 2018 - 10:53 PM, said:

Great question, a friend of mine has got tix 4 years in a row.

What kind of physician is he?

Democrat or Republican?

Paper or plastic?

Toilet paper over or under?

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#10 onelochevy

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 06:32 AM

View Postrymail00, on 04 July 2018 - 12:08 AM, said:

I thought I signed up? Are you guys getting denial emails from the Masters?

I havent gotten the email yet, but you can log into your account and see your ticket status.

As for me, my dad and I have both been selected once in the last 7 years.  He got them in 2013 and I got picked in 2015.  Practice rounds both times.  Denied this year though.


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#11 BNGL

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 06:49 AM

Buddy of mine enters every year, and has gotten them each of the past seven. The kicker is he gets tickets anyways from being a Class A superintendent. So he and his dad (one class A and one CGCS) both got picked in the lottery and already had their complimentary badges....so lucky I think they paid for their whole trip with the extra badges.

Fun fact I think 20 GCSAA members have been banned for life from ANGC

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#12 golfandfishing

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 07:33 AM

View PostBNGL, on 04 July 2018 - 06:49 AM, said:

Buddy of mine enters every year, and has gotten them each of the past seven. The kicker is he gets tickets anyways from being a Class A superintendent. So he and his dad (one class A and one CGCS) both got picked in the lottery and already had their complimentary badges....so lucky I think they paid for their whole trip with the extra badges.

Fun fact I think 20 GCSAA members have been banned for life from ANGC

Funny coincidence here - I worked with 2 other assistant pros in AZ. One is banned from Augusta for life and one went on to work there.

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#13 North Texas

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 07:47 AM

View Postgolfandfishing, on 04 July 2018 - 07:33 AM, said:

View PostBNGL, on 04 July 2018 - 06:49 AM, said:

Buddy of mine enters every year, and has gotten them each of the past seven. The kicker is he gets tickets anyways from being a Class A superintendent. So he and his dad (one class A and one CGCS) both got picked in the lottery and already had their complimentary badges....so lucky I think they paid for their whole trip with the extra badges.

Fun fact I think 20 GCSAA members have been banned for life from ANGC

Funny coincidence here - I worked with 2 other assistant pros in AZ. One is banned from Augusta for life and one went on to work there.

Okay, how much can either of you elaborate on why they were banned?

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#14 golfandfishing

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 08:49 AM

Drunk and disorderly. Probably would have just been removed for the day but he was given the choice of leaving the hard way or the easy way and he chose the hard way.

The other guy worked at Augusta, Congressional, East Lake and Inverness and is now HP at a well known east coast club hosting majors. I’d say where but would easy to identify him and he’s not on the forum to say that’s ok.

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#15 youdamantiger

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:24 AM

I've entered the past four years and never won. My pal has entered every year they've had the lottery and never been picked. Meanwhile a mutual acquaintance of ours got picked the first three years he entered.


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#16 Newbs24

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:27 AM

Just my experience: I got picked this year while 2 of my cousins did not... If they took a look at tax returns and who they are married to, they would have chosen them way before me... No clue how it happens and I have to think it is as random as it gets if I got chosen

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#17 BNGL

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:44 AM

View PostNorth Texas, on 04 July 2018 - 07:47 AM, said:

View Postgolfandfishing, on 04 July 2018 - 07:33 AM, said:

View PostBNGL, on 04 July 2018 - 06:49 AM, said:

Buddy of mine enters every year, and has gotten them each of the past seven. The kicker is he gets tickets anyways from being a Class A superintendent. So he and his dad (one class A and one CGCS) both got picked in the lottery and already had their complimentary badges....so lucky I think they paid for their whole trip with the extra badges.

Fun fact I think 20 GCSAA members have been banned for life from ANGC

Funny coincidence here - I worked with 2 other assistant pros in AZ. One is banned from Augusta for life and one went on to work there.

Okay, how much can either of you elaborate on why they were banned?

Probably too much alcohol. We can’t sell our tickets easily, as they need our membership cards to match with drivers licenses or other picture forms of ID. I don’t know who it is, but every year when the GCSAA sends the notification that we get free entry it’s listed at the bottom.

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#18 ceejay81

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:49 AM

I have not been picked in 12 years.  My buddy had the same streak going until last year and I was fortunate to be able to go with him to Monday's practice round.  This year I got a few non golf fan friends to sign up for me - they were excited to do so.  One of them actually won 3 Wednesday practice round tickets for me!

I really have no idea how it works.

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#19 bladehunter

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:52 AM

Never been. Live an hour or so away.  Wasn’t picked again this year. Pretty sad really. But hey.  I’m not paying the price the dishonest folks who enter and win just to flip them ask.
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#20 sekrah

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 10:54 AM

This is not scientific, just a guess based on what I read around here and other places, but if you put in for each day (Mon-Sun) I would guesstimate the odds are roughly around 8-1 that you get picked. Of course, that means you could catch lightning in a bottle and win a few years in a row, or you could just as easily go 15 years without winning.

Edited by sekrah, 04 July 2018 - 11:06 AM.


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#21 j-rob

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 11:05 AM

There’s nothing random about Augusta National or the Masters.

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#22 DatSliceDoe

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 11:08 AM

10+ years, no tix. I'm on the "we regret" list.

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#23 countvelvet

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 11:11 AM

0 for the last 12 years for me.  I thought Canadians would have a better shot since Mike Weir won in 2003!

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#24 BuffaloTim

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 11:25 AM

I just logged into my account.  My application for the 2019 Masters was not selected.

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#25 SuperQuad

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:55 PM

Anyone got any idea whether they look more/less favourably on applications from outside the US? UK here and I’ve just received my 6th straight rejection!


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#26 golfgirlrobin

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Posted 04 July 2018 - 08:37 PM

I think it’s random, but I also think the number of tickets available through the lottery may be pretty small.  There may be a dozen different ways they distribute them.  

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#27 fly787

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 12:30 AM

I am 0 for whenever they went to the electronic system.  Seems rather impossible to me .....
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#28 grm24

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 12:58 AM

View Postfly787, on 05 July 2018 - 12:30 AM, said:

Seems rather impossible to me .....
Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?

Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just  people that do not understand/ignore how math works.

Edited by grm24, 05 July 2018 - 01:11 AM.


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#29 Ashley Schaeffer

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:10 AM

View Postgrm24, on 05 July 2018 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postfly787, on 05 July 2018 - 12:30 AM, said:

Seems rather impossible to me .....
Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?

Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>

That could be good logic if they only selected one person.  Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
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#30 Singapore Joe

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 02:54 AM

View PostAshley Schaeffer, on 05 July 2018 - 01:10 AM, said:

View Postgrm24, on 05 July 2018 - 12:58 AM, said:

View Postfly787, on 05 July 2018 - 12:30 AM, said:

Seems rather impossible to me .....
Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?

Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>

That could be good logic if they only selected one person.  Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
Well... let's have more than one person selected. Think of a ticket winner selection as some sort of a function F:{A_1, A_2, ..., A_n} -> {YES, NO}^n which for each n applicant A produces a decision whether that applicant won or not. If the selection process is random, each output string of yeses and nos is equally likely, i.e occurs at a probability of 1/n.

The number of tickets available is, say, k which is independent of number n as k is controlled by the committee but n can be anything. For any applicant, the probability of winning is k*(1/n)=k/n which means that if there are as many applicants as there are tickets, everybody wins (i.e. the probability =1). However, it is much more likely that k<n and once n goes up k/n goes down.

We can't unconditionally say that odds get exponentially worse if the number of applicants increases but the odds do get worse in a pretty straightforward relationship with the number of applicants.

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