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AJGA success predicts becoming a Tour Pro?


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#1 CTgolf

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 07:17 AM

http://www.golfwrx.c...sional-success/

"According to research from junior golf expert Henry Brunton, each birth year can expect to have approximately 10 players become career PGA Tour players, with seven of these being born in the United States. Each year approximately 125 million people are born, so in general your odds of being a tour play are one in 12.5 million. When comparing these numbers against the odds for AJGA All-Americans, one cannot help but see how strong a predictor of future success this prestigious honor is."


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#2 tiger1873

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM

The best junior tournaments today are AJGA so it sort of obvious an being a ALL American on their tour that an important predictor of success.  If your at the top of the AJGA your also probably thinking about being a pro more then college as well and how much money you need to launch your pro career.

Even though the odds are still high I think there greatly over stated in the article as far as odds go.  You can narrow it down a lot more to kids who actually play golf and practice more the 10 hours a week.  

What would be more interesting is how many kids who played (not winning) regularly in a US kids tournament or local pga junior event under 10 actually go on to become pro.  Would not be surprised to see 1/100 odds of that happening.

Edited by tiger1873, 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM.


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#3 heavy_hitter

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 08:49 AM

View Posttiger1873, on 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM, said:

The best junior tournaments today are AJGA so it sort of obvious an being a ALL American on their tour that an important predictor of success.  If your at the top of the AJGA your also probably thinking about being a pro more then college as well and how much money you need to launch your pro career.

Even though the odds are still high I think there greatly over stated in the article as far as odds go.  You can narrow it down a lot more to kids who actually play golf and practice more the 10 hours a week.  

What would be more interesting is how many kids who played (not winning) regularly in a US kids tournament or local pga junior event under 10 actually go on to become pro.  Would not be surprised to see 1/100 odds of that happening.

Those kids are practicing more than 10 hours a week.

Summer months right now my kid is putting in about 42 hours a week.  6 hours with his instructor. 3 hours with personal trainer.  21 hours a week with one of his buddies.  12 with me driving him around the course.

Edited by heavy_hitter, 08 June 2018 - 10:01 AM.


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#4 CTgolf

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Posted 09 June 2018 - 06:23 AM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 08 June 2018 - 08:49 AM, said:

View Posttiger1873, on 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM, said:

The best junior tournaments today are AJGA so it sort of obvious an being a ALL American on their tour that an important predictor of success.  If your at the top of the AJGA your also probably thinking about being a pro more then college as well and how much money you need to launch your pro career.

Even though the odds are still high I think there greatly over stated in the article as far as odds go.  You can narrow it down a lot more to kids who actually play golf and practice more the 10 hours a week.  

What would be more interesting is how many kids who played (not winning) regularly in a US kids tournament or local pga junior event under 10 actually go on to become pro.  Would not be surprised to see 1/100 odds of that happening.

Those kids are practicing more than 10 hours a week.

Summer months right now my kid is putting in about 42 hours a week.  6 hours with his instructor. 3 hours with personal trainer.  21 hours a week with one of his buddies.  12 with me driving him around the course.

That's a lot!

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#5 Doc420

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Posted 09 June 2018 - 10:02 AM

So the odds of getting to the NBA is 1 in 375, I wonder what really is the hardest sport to make it.


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#6 heavy_hitter

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Posted 09 June 2018 - 01:27 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 09 June 2018 - 06:23 AM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 08 June 2018 - 08:49 AM, said:

View Posttiger1873, on 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM, said:

The best junior tournaments today are AJGA so it sort of obvious an being a ALL American on their tour that an important predictor of success.  If your at the top of the AJGA your also probably thinking about being a pro more then college as well and how much money you need to launch your pro career.

Even though the odds are still high I think there greatly over stated in the article as far as odds go.  You can narrow it down a lot more to kids who actually play golf and practice more the 10 hours a week.  

What would be more interesting is how many kids who played (not winning) regularly in a US kids tournament or local pga junior event under 10 actually go on to become pro.  Would not be surprised to see 1/100 odds of that happening.

Those kids are practicing more than 10 hours a week.

Summer months right now my kid is putting in about 42 hours a week.  6 hours with his instructor. 3 hours with personal trainer.  21 hours a week with one of his buddies.  12 with me driving him around the course.

That's a lot!

Not really.  Most of it, even with his instructor, is all course time.  He is playing 18 to 36 holes a day.

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#7 CTgolf

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 06:45 AM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 09 June 2018 - 01:27 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 09 June 2018 - 06:23 AM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 08 June 2018 - 08:49 AM, said:

View Posttiger1873, on 08 June 2018 - 08:24 AM, said:

The best junior tournaments today are AJGA so it sort of obvious an being a ALL American on their tour that an important predictor of success.  If your at the top of the AJGA your also probably thinking about being a pro more then college as well and how much money you need to launch your pro career.

Even though the odds are still high I think there greatly over stated in the article as far as odds go.  You can narrow it down a lot more to kids who actually play golf and practice more the 10 hours a week.  

What would be more interesting is how many kids who played (not winning) regularly in a US kids tournament or local pga junior event under 10 actually go on to become pro.  Would not be surprised to see 1/100 odds of that happening.

Those kids are practicing more than 10 hours a week.

Summer months right now my kid is putting in about 42 hours a week.  6 hours with his instructor. 3 hours with personal trainer.  21 hours a week with one of his buddies.  12 with me driving him around the course.

That's a lot!

Not really.  Most of it, even with his instructor, is all course time.  He is playing 18 to 36 holes a day.

That's a very intense regimen - it sounds like your son (he is 13?) is ready for it and you have it well mapped out.

I think about my own kids and often wonder at what age that type of intense focus would be appropriate.  I'm sure it's dependent on the child, but I often see young kids who are talented and have the ability to concentrate for long periods of time, and they could use a bit more push.  Others might benefit from a less hands-on approach.  To each his own.

It seems like a fine line between pushing them to reach their max potential vs risking burnout.

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#8 UNCThomas23

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 07:01 AM

With that being said, I know a ton of people who have won on the AJGA and haven’t had professional success. Still a crap shoot
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#9 Noles

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 07:40 AM

View PostDoc420, on 09 June 2018 - 10:02 AM, said:

So the odds of getting to the NBA is 1 in 375, I wonder what really is the hardest sport to make it.
This does not sound right to me.  Where did this stat come from?

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#10 CTgolf

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 07:41 AM

View PostNoles, on 11 June 2018 - 07:40 AM, said:

View PostDoc420, on 09 June 2018 - 10:02 AM, said:

So the odds of getting to the NBA is 1 in 375, I wonder what really is the hardest sport to make it.
This does not sound right to me.  Where did this stat come from?

Maybe 1 in 375 NCAA college players


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#11 wildcatden

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 09:57 AM

http://www.scholarsh...arsityodds.html

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