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At what age does winning become important


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#31 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:22 AM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 09:52 AM, said:


I'm getting confused as to what the point is - he's not a top player, he shot a pedestrian 75 with little instruction and not much tournament experience, only started playing at 11, skipped "Daddy Golf" - but somehow he sounds like the exception rather than the rule.

I guess I just have a hard time believing that *MOST* top players in individual skill sports weren't top players at lower levels or younger age groups.  It seems like in every endeavor in life there is a narrowing process, like a pyramid, as juniors age and the skill level increases, and to get to the higher levels you needed to have had success before.  Is golf that different?

All Sports are different unless you are "That Kid".  "That Kid" (Tiger Woods, Phil) are the exception, not the rule.  Most guys on tour weren't "That Kid" when they were young.  At 8, it doesn't matter and is not a great determiner of future success.  Spieth didn't even begin playing legit until he was 13.

That kid that shot a 75 with little tournament experience has as much upside as any kid that has been playing since 5.  I would think maybe more because he has less expectations and no baggage.

The point I am making, there is no rhyme or reason a kid will make it.  "Hard Work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard."  There are too many factors against determining success.


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#32 wildcatden

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:22 AM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 10:01 AM, said:

I guess in my original post I was assuming that a junior golfer had been participating in competitions along the way, and not getting a late start.

But even among those who don't start competing until later, it seems like there is an age at which, if they haven't demonstrated the ability to compete at a high level, that it probably won't ever happen?

It sounds like that age is probably post-puberty.

Probably true that in 99.9999% of the cases that if they haven't demonstrated that ability that it won't happen. There are exceptions. Another is Greg Norman who started golf at age 15 (was taught by his mom who was a single digit handicap). Norman played rugby, cricket and aspired to be a pro surfer prior to golf. In other words, he was very athletic.

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#33 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:23 AM

View Posttiger1873, on 12 June 2018 - 09:54 AM, said:


While score is important what type of course and yardage was the 75 shot at? There is a big difference if the slope is 140 and 6000 yards to a course that a 90 slope and 4500 yards.

The thing that a lot people forget is the higher up the kids go as they get older the harder the course gets for them. You also play in more weather and windy conditions which all have an effect on their scores.

6500 yards.  71.2   128

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#34 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:25 AM

View Postwildcatden, on 12 June 2018 - 09:56 AM, said:

When I think of golfers winning early or when does it become important to win in golf, I always think of two things:

1. Jack Nicklaus didn't play golf until he was 10 (although his dad was a scratch golfer, great at tennis, played semi-pro football and was an all-around very good athlete).
2. There is the statement in the Titleist Performance Institute stuff that says in effect: "In general, when two kids reach the age of roughly 13 (or so), a good multi-sport athlete will beat a golfer-only athlete nearly all of the time (exceptions granted)."

The 15 year old who picked up a club at age 11 and is shooting 75 now in his first year of tournaments? I'd like to know what other sports he played (if any at all). That's certainly a good score for someone with little tournament experience.

Baseball football

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#35 Tannerbug33

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

As kids get old and hit the balls longer little flaws get bigger. Easy to hit all your fairways when your drive is 160 because a slice and draw don't get away from you to far. When your hitting 300 plus yards those little things start hurting you game.
And then everyone being past puberty equals things out as well


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#36 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 11:26 AM

View PostTannerbug33, on 12 June 2018 - 10:57 AM, said:

As kids get old and hit the balls longer little flaws get bigger. Easy to hit all your fairways when your drive is 160 because a slice and draw don't get away from you to far. When your hitting 300 plus yards those little things start hurting you game.
And then everyone being past puberty equals things out as well

Bingo.

It also isn't always a swing flaw.  It can also be a physical flaw that limits a person to be able to swing, rotate, properly.  That is why playing multiple sports is great.  They are better athletes without as many physical flaws.

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#37 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

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#38 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:02 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

I also looked at the Dallas US Kids Local Tour Boys 9 Division from 2009 (presumably 17 and 18yo's today).

The top 5 in Points (generally scoring high 30s to low 40s for 9 holes each round) for 9yo Boys for the Winter Tour are all ranked JGS players today (including Noah Goodwin).

http://www.uskidsgol...4/dallas/points

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#39 Tannerbug33

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:14 PM

Heavy I agree 100% about multiple sports making a better athlete. My son plays football so we don't get alot of golf practice during football season so there is always so slow restart time and frustration on his part because he don't understand why he cant just pick up where he left off

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#40 wildcatden

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:17 PM

CTGolf those are good data points. But what are you saying?  My kid hasn't won this year. Should we just hang it up on our pursuit of college golf and beyond?


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#41 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:24 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

That data doesn't show much.  

You asked winning.  There was only one kid that won that tournament.  You didn't say placing high.  You said "Winning".  The guy that won is going to Youngstown State.  Real mecca for college golf.  This is the class of 2018.    Jared Wilson was T111 in this tournament and is going to Wake Forest.  Frankie Cappan didn't play in this tournament and is the JGS #1 ranked player.

To me, going to college isn't making it.  A lot of these kids are going to college to play golf.  Making it is playing professionally.

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#42 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:29 PM

View Postwildcatden, on 12 June 2018 - 12:17 PM, said:

CTGolf those are good data points. But what are you saying?  My kid hasn't won this year. Should we just hang it up on our pursuit of college golf and beyond?

I'm not sure what the implications are - I was kind of surprised by those examples myself.

But I think it kind of goes against the thought that success at a young age has little predictive ability (in fact it seems to have a very high hit ratio).

My initial thought when starting this thread was that most juniors needed to have demonstrated playing at a high level by a certain age to be successful at the next level (obviously doesn't apply if the junior doesn't start playing golf until later than normal).  I think that's stillthe case.

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#43 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:31 PM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 12:24 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

That data doesn't show much.  

You asked winning.  There was only one kid that won that tournament.  You didn't say placing high.  You said "Winning".  The guy that won is going to Youngstown State.  Real mecca for college golf.  This is the class of 2018. Jared Wilson was T111 in this tournament and is going to Wake Forest.  Frankie Cappan didn't play in this tournament and is the JGS #1 ranked player.

To me, going to college isn't making it.  A lot of these kids are going to college to play golf.  Making it is playing professionally.

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:

Have a buddy of mine whose kid has a pretty prestigious instructor.  He asked this instructor the other day this very question.  Without hesitation the instructor replied "Q-School".

Before anyone comes back with the "Yeah, Buts".  Golf changes at 13-15 years old.  Golf before the age of 13 it is "daddy caddy golf".   I call it "Baby Golf" now.   It changes for the kids a lot when they move into the older age groups.  The gaps shrink as you get older.

I think the data show that your dismissal of "golf before the age of 13" as "baby golf" is a bit further from the truth than you might think.

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#44 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:35 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:02 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

I also looked at the Dallas US Kids Local Tour Boys 9 Division from 2009 (presumably 17 and 18yo's today).

The top 5 in Points (generally scoring high 30s to low 40s for 9 holes each round) for 9yo Boys for the Winter Tour are all ranked JGS players today (including Noah Goodwin).

http://www.uskidsgol...4/dallas/points

What does being ranked have to do with anything?  My kid is ranked.  So what.  The last place player on the tour is ranked.  I honestly don't understand the points you are trying to make.  The data you are throwing out is meaningless.  

1.  You give an example of the US Kids World Championships of golf.  The best of the best go there.  Of course there are going to be many kids from that event that go onto to college.  Why would you think otherwise.  I think more alarmingly is how many kids from that tournament no longer play tournament golf.  They gave it up and aren't in the ranking systems.

2.  You then give a local tour from Texas and say there are kids ranked now.  All you have to do is is have 4 two day tournaments with 5 or more kids playing in that tournament.  Just because you are ranked doesn't mean you are playing past high school

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#45 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:45 PM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 12:35 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:02 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

I also looked at the Dallas US Kids Local Tour Boys 9 Division from 2009 (presumably 17 and 18yo's today).

The top 5 in Points (generally scoring high 30s to low 40s for 9 holes each round) for 9yo Boys for the Winter Tour are all ranked JGS players today (including Noah Goodwin).

http://www.uskidsgol...4/dallas/points

What does being ranked have to do with anything?  My kid is ranked.  So what.  The last place player on the tour is ranked.  I honestly don't understand the points you are trying to make.  The data you are throwing out is meaningless.  

1.  You give an example of the US Kids World Championships of golf.  The best of the best go there.  Of course there are going to be many kids from that event that go onto to college.  Why would you think otherwise.  I think more alarmingly is how many kids from that tournament no longer play tournament golf.  They gave it up and aren't in the ranking systems.

2.  You then give a local tour from Texas and say there are kids ranked now.  All you have to do is is have 4 two day tournaments with 5 or more kids playing in that tournament.  Just because you are ranked doesn't mean you are playing past high school

I think you might be exhibiting a cognitive bias, whereby you overemphasize or recollect false positives (players who may have shown promise early but fail later) while underestimating the actual probability of high performance later by juniors who are competitive at a young age.

Anyone can point out an exception to a rule or an outlier - they stand out and are easy to remember.

If "baby golf", as you call it, were truly meaningless, then the % of high performers later from a group of winners at an early age should be similar to the % of winners from the overall population.  That obviously is not the case, as evidenced by performing a simple 5 minute check on the uskidsgolf.com website.


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#46 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:48 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:31 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 12:24 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 11:40 AM, said:

Of the top 18 junior boys from the United States who competed in the 2010 US Kids World Championship (Pinehurst) Boys 10 division (high school class of 2017 or 2018), 17 of them are currently playing or committed to playing D1 Golf.

http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467963

This data point does not seem to agree with the opinion that performance under the age of 13yo is meaningless.

That data doesn't show much.  

You asked winning.  There was only one kid that won that tournament.  You didn't say placing high.  You said "Winning".  The guy that won is going to Youngstown State.  Real mecca for college golf.  This is the class of 2018. Jared Wilson was T111 in this tournament and is going to Wake Forest.  Frankie Cappan didn't play in this tournament and is the JGS #1 ranked player.

To me, going to college isn't making it.  A lot of these kids are going to college to play golf.  Making it is playing professionally.

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:

Have a buddy of mine whose kid has a pretty prestigious instructor.  He asked this instructor the other day this very question.  Without hesitation the instructor replied "Q-School".

Before anyone comes back with the "Yeah, Buts".  Golf changes at 13-15 years old.  Golf before the age of 13 it is "daddy caddy golf".   I call it "Baby Golf" now.   It changes for the kids a lot when they move into the older age groups.  The gaps shrink as you get older.

I think the data show that your dismissal of "golf before the age of 13" as "baby golf" is a bit further from the truth than you might think.

You are picking the US Kids World Championship of golf.  

LOL....  you don't get it.  Probably never will.

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#47 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 12:55 PM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:


You are picking the US Kids World Championship of golf.  

LOL....  you don't get it.  Probably never will.

I'm not the one making blanket statements that performance before age 13 has no predictive ability.

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#48 tiger1873

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:04 PM

The reason "baby golf is meaningless is because you have parents who are reading every putt and walking them through every shot. It's dad's playing against dad's and the kids just swing away. Those are the kids you see winning at a young age.

It's important that kids play but there are so many variables nobody really knows. You have a few outliers but generally speaking winning The US Kids worlds or similar tournament like that is like winning the grammy for best new artist.

Edited by tiger1873, 12 June 2018 - 01:04 PM.


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#49 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:10 PM

I'm no expert in statistics, but the thesis that "baby golf" (as defined as competition before the age of 13yo) is not predictive of future success (HOWEVER one wants to define it - D1 player, Tour Pro, etc) is not that difficult to prove.

Simply take the top 3 (or 5, or 10, or whatever) point leaders in every local tour on the US Kids website, going as far back as history allows, then look at what % go on to meet that threshold of success.

Then compare that % to the % who are successful out of ALL players.

I'd be willing to wager a very large amount of $ that the % of kids (< 13yo) who were point leaders are far more likely (statistically significant using z-scores) to meet any given threshold of success than the average player.

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#50 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:18 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:55 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:

You are picking the US Kids World Championship of golf.  

LOL....  you don't get it.  Probably never will.

I'm not the one making blanket statements that performance before age 13 has no predictive ability.

LMAO...  You never posed this question until now.  Your post says "At what age is winning is important?".  The answer is....  It isn't.

You also didn't say important for college, what future success is, playing D1 golf or NAIA golf, PGA Golf.  

One would think that from the World Championships of golf at 10 there would be kids playing high level golf after high school.

It is like you want someone to look at your kid and say "He is going to play college golf on a scholarship."  Having talent, working hard, and having good academic standing can lead anyone to play college golf.  That is predicative to a point.  Making it to the PGA is a different story.  I think everyone in this thread is thinking PGA and you are thinking college.  No one can predict who is going to make it to the PGA.


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#51 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:24 PM

BTW....

Only two kids that played in that Tournament are in the Top 25 of the JGS rankings for the class of 2018.

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#52 kcap

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:24 PM

While  I am enjoying the back and forth;  I think the point is "predictive ability before 13 " towards what?   Ability to playing high school golf, college golf (any program) - yes, very likely;  to HH point these kids were very good at a young age;  so it is not a shocker that they played college golf etc.

"Predictive ability"  to making it beyond college etc  - probably not.  I think it takes a special kind of determination and ability; that is only displayed at a more mature age.

Going back to the original question, "winning" is subjective at a young age; my son won a local tour with a weak field but a score way below his potential; or vice versa. The former is not winning but the latter is winning.  I don't about you guys, but I focus a lot on score and stats at this age.

I really think winning is important at a latter stage when size, maturity, years playing golf is no longer a advantage or disadvantage...

Edited by kcap, 12 June 2018 - 01:26 PM.


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#53 CTgolf

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:25 PM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:55 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:

You are picking the US Kids World Championship of golf.  

LOL....  you don't get it.  Probably never will.

I'm not the one making blanket statements that performance before age 13 has no predictive ability.

LMAO...  You never posed this question until now.  Your post says "At what age is winning is important?".  The answer is....  It isn't.

You also didn't say important for college, what future success is, playing D1 golf or NAIA golf, PGA Golf.  

One would think that from the World Championships of golf at 10 there would be kids playing high level golf after high school.

It is like you want someone to look at your kid and say "He is going to play college golf on a scholarship."  Having talent, working hard, and having good academic standing can lead anyone to play college golf.  That is predicative to a point.  Making it to the PGA is a different story.  I think everyone in this thread is thinking PGA and you are thinking college.  No one can predict who is going to make it to the PGA.

I gave a simple example using US Kids Worlds to disprove your illogical, blanket statement.  It took all of 3 minutes.

I then did a sanity check using a local tour in a large metro area, and it lent credence to the obvious.  I'm sure we could check other Local Tours and come up with similar results.

I don't think everyone in this thread is thinking PGA.  This forum is "Juniors/College Golf Talk".

I think you are well-intentioned, but I think you tend to exaggerate and overemphasize certain points without a lot of evidence (outside of anecdotes).

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#54 tiger1873

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 01:52 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 01:10 PM, said:

I'm no expert in statistics, but the thesis that "baby golf" (as defined as competition before the age of 13yo) is not predictive of future success (HOWEVER one wants to define it - D1 player, Tour Pro, etc) is not that difficult to prove.

Simply take the top 3 (or 5, or 10, or whatever) point leaders in every local tour on the US Kids website, going as far back as history allows, then look at what % go on to meet that threshold of success.

Then compare that % to the % who are successful out of ALL players.

I'd be willing to wager a very large amount of $ that the % of kids (< 13yo) who were point leaders are far more likely (statistically significant using z-scores) to meet any given threshold of success than the average player.

Point leaders and wining are two different things. To be a point leader in a lot places you just need to show up and and get points.  Both of them do not reflect who is going to make it to the PGA or LPGA and have success. Winning large junior torments though when there 17 or 18 is another matter and actually do mean something.  

A lot of those kids success hangs on parents who do everything for their kid to win.  I done enough of these tournaments to understand that there is a reason why most them are not really counted and mean anything.

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#55 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:01 PM

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 01:25 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 01:18 PM, said:

View PostCTgolf, on 12 June 2018 - 12:55 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 08:22 AM, said:

You are picking the US Kids World Championship of golf.  

LOL....  you don't get it.  Probably never will.

I'm not the one making blanket statements that performance before age 13 has no predictive ability.

LMAO...  You never posed this question until now.  Your post says "At what age is winning is important?".  The answer is....  It isn't.

You also didn't say important for college, what future success is, playing D1 golf or NAIA golf, PGA Golf.  

One would think that from the World Championships of golf at 10 there would be kids playing high level golf after high school.

It is like you want someone to look at your kid and say "He is going to play college golf on a scholarship."  Having talent, working hard, and having good academic standing can lead anyone to play college golf.  That is predicative to a point.  Making it to the PGA is a different story.  I think everyone in this thread is thinking PGA and you are thinking college.  No one can predict who is going to make it to the PGA.

I gave a simple example using US Kids Worlds to disprove your illogical, blanket statement.  It took all of 3 minutes.

I then did a sanity check using a local tour in a large metro area, and it lent credence to the obvious.  I'm sure we could check other Local Tours and come up with similar results.

I don't think everyone in this thread is thinking PGA.  This forum is "Juniors/College Golf Talk".

I think you are well-intentioned, but I think you tend to exaggerate and overemphasize certain points without a lot of evidence (outside of anecdotes).

The problem....  you didn't disprove anything at all.  In your mind you did.  Your question is "When is winning important?"  You never mentioned performance before 13.  It is something you made up along the way to save face.

Inside the top 200 in your junior year and you are going DI to DII.  A big tournament like the US Kids Worlds, Future Masters, Callaway World can be a predictor for success with or without winning it.  Winning is not a predictor of success.
https://www.juniorgo...ngs_display.asp

The following tournaments from 2010.  Tell me about the first 10 American golfers and what they are doing.   I did look them up.
http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467581
http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=467888
http://www.uskidsgol...ament_id=468366

Your theory is flawed.  Very flawed.

Edited by heavy_hitter, 12 June 2018 - 02:02 PM.


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#56 leezer99

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:03 PM

This is getting good...

Posted Image

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#57 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:32 PM

There is a US Kids Local in our area with no one signed up in my kids division.  I am going to get him signed up to ensure the win.  I am excited because it will not only guarantee future success, but it will guarantee a college scholarship.

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#58 wildcatden

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:35 PM

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 02:32 PM, said:

There is a US Kids Local in our area with no one signed up in my kids division.  I am going to get him signed up to ensure the win.  I am excited because it will not only guarantee future success, but it will guarantee a college scholarship.

This is assuming he can finish the round. You never know.

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#59 heavy_hitter

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:45 PM

View Postwildcatden, on 12 June 2018 - 02:35 PM, said:

View Postheavy_hitter, on 12 June 2018 - 02:32 PM, said:

There is a US Kids Local in our area with no one signed up in my kids division.  I am going to get him signed up to ensure the win.  I am excited because it will not only guarantee future success, but it will guarantee a college scholarship.

This is assuming he can finish the round. You never know.

I will be there to caddy and make sure he finishes.  Will carry him on my shoulders if I have to.

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#60 leezer99

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 02:48 PM

My boy didn't win today.  We're selling his clubs for scrap... anyone need some junior golf clothes or a pushcart?


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