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PGA Tour legalized betting? Bring it on, says the commish


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#1 puttfordoux

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:10 AM

https://golfweek.com...ing-nationwide/

Call it “Black Monday” for your neighborhood bookie.
New Jersey won a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court that could lead many states to legalize betting on college and professional sports, including the PGA Tour.
The justices ruled 7-2 that a 25-year-old federal law that has effectively prohibited sports betting outside Nevada cannot block states such as New Jersey that want to set up sports books. The ruling could set the stage for other states to expand legalized gambling as a source of government revenue.
The PGA Tour is on record saying it would welcome regulated and legalized sports betting on its competitions if the Supreme Court overturns the federal ban that prohibits such bets in most states.
“You have keep in mind that betting is happening right now, with illegal black markets and offshore betting, and we don’t have any exposure to what is happening,” PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan told USA TODAY Sports in his first public comments on the issue. “If it’s legalized and regulated, you get to a point where you can better ensure the integrity of your competitions. You can provide adequate protection for consumers, which doesn’t exist today. There are commercial opportunities for us, which is one of the things we’re here to do, which is to create and maximize playing and financial opportunities for our players.”


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#2 MidwestGolfBum

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:21 AM

I would agree with Monahan. There are plenty of ways to gamble online now, almost all of which are illegal. It will be very interesting to see where this goes as far as more states adopting this and how businesses will attempt to monetize it. I can see this being something that leads to each professional sports org having their own platform to use to place bets in the future or all them partnering with large casino groups to do the heavy lifting.
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#3 wcbjr

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:30 AM

Does that mean more lootboxes?

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#4 Shilgy

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:45 AM

It means more bababooey screams when a player the fan bet against is putting. Yay?
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#5 golfnhack

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:54 AM

So for those of you who play Daily Fantasy Sports Golf. Would this stop you from playing DFS? For me, the "chance" of winning $100,000 off a $5 line up still beats winning $100 off a $5 on 20-1 odds.

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#6 MidwestGolfBum

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 10:58 AM

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 10:54 AM, said:

So for those of you who play Daily Fantasy Sports Golf. Would this stop you from playing DFS? For me, the "chance" of winning $100,000 off a $5 line up still beats winning $100 off a $5 on 20-1 odds.

No, but it offers things like prop bets, player vs player within groups, parlays, etc. on top of the DFS stuff.
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#7 JaNelson38

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 11:02 AM

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 10:54 AM, said:

So for those of you who play Daily Fantasy Sports Golf. Would this stop you from playing DFS? For me, the "chance" of winning $100,000 off a $5 line up still beats winning $100 off a $5 on 20-1 odds.

It depends on what the bet is.  You can put a parlay together that will pay healthy odds if you like certain games.  Your chances of making a six figure score in DFS are miniscule...to say you would turn your nose at getting a 20-1 payoff from a $5 bet is ridiculous.  Nobody would.  I certainly wouldnt.  You'd have to finish in the top 5% (if not higher) of a DFS tournament to get 20-1 return on your money.

This ruling a is a great thing.  Its about time the laws now can change.  The country is missing out on huge, huge tax money from legalized and regulated betting.  It would solve budget problems for a lot of states, and it would give what pretty much every other modernized country with professional sports leagues has - legalized betting.

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#8 manku

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM

FWIW, studies have shown that 93% of players on fantasy sites like Draftkings are losers...not only have insiders taken advantage of their knowledge (it's not like it's a regulated business!), but there are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

Apparently those winning percentages are about the same for online poker.  

Have fun, but Caveat Emptor!

PS.  Not sure how legalized gambling will affect those with bookies.  Bookies extend credit, allow one to place futures bets without having to put cash upfront (season bets for major sporting leagues), and don't report to the IRS.

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#9 Holy Moses

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today
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#10 MidwestGolfBum

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 12:05 PM

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

FWIW, studies have shown that 93% of players on fantasy sites like Draftkings are losers...not only have insiders taken advantage of their knowledge (it's not like it's a regulated business!), but there are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

Apparently those winning percentages are about the same for online poker.  

Have fun, but Caveat Emptor!

PS.  Not sure how legalized gambling will affect those with bookies.  Bookies extend credit, allow one to place futures bets without having to put cash upfront (season bets for major sporting leagues), and don't report to the IRS.

To your last point, my guess is those who use bookies now may not change and if they do it will be some time down the road, but this opens the door for more people who are either uneasy with the idea of a bookie or didn't really want to get involved in the illegal online sites.

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#11 golfnhack

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 12:21 PM

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

FWIW, studies have shown that 93% of players on fantasy sites like Draftkings are losers...not only have insiders taken advantage of their knowledge (it's not like it's a regulated business!), but there are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

Apparently those winning percentages are about the same for online poker.  

Have fun, but Caveat Emptor!

PS.  Not sure how legalized gambling will affect those with bookies.  Bookies extend credit, allow one to place futures bets without having to put cash upfront (season bets for major sporting leagues), and don't report to the IRS.

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

here are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

That might be true for Baseball and Football, but NOT for golf. Take it from someone with 20+ years experience writing algorithms, who has spent 3 years writing "golf" algorithms and doing data analysis. I can talk to you for hours on why algorithms for PGA tour golf does NOT work, but it boils down to a couple of things

1) You HAVE to choose the winner.
2) All the players in your lineup HAVE to make the cut
3) At least 3 of your 6 players MUST finish in the top 10
4) 2 of the other 3 players MUST be in the top 20
5) The last player MUST be top 50.
6) With a 144 player field, there are BILLIONS of combinations (or close to even with Salary Cap)
7) Literally ANYONE in the field can win, and in fields that are less than a 5 on Strength of Field, it is almost impossible to predict. Most tournaments are 0-2 on Strength of Field

I still run my simulations, but have given up playing bulk entries.


And in case you think I am kidding... see screenshot attached.

dfs.png

Edited by golfnhack, 14 May 2018 - 12:33 PM.

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#12 bladehunter

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 12:44 PM

terrible idea in my opinion .... more "growth" in the wrong direction
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#13 2putttom

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:14 PM

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today
#me too.   :~$
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#14 golfnhack

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:16 PM

View Post2putttom, on 14 May 2018 - 02:14 PM, said:

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today
#me too.   :~$

Well... he needed a lift after Callaway Clothing Division lost millions after his performance last week.
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#15 MidwestGolfBum

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:31 PM

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 02:16 PM, said:

View Post2putttom, on 14 May 2018 - 02:14 PM, said:

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today
#me too.   :~$

Well... he needed a lift after Callaway Clothing Division lost millions after his performance last week.

Given he has Mizzen+Main as a clothing sponsor (in which he now has a stake) I'm not so sure Phil cares a lot about their clothing devision.

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#16 CEPick

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:34 PM

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today

Like he gambles legally....

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#17 Darth Putter

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:34 PM

What's Tiger doing?

Ruining my Phil/ Jordan quinella!!! BAH!
swing is irrelevant, score is everything

just say NO.... to practice swings

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#18 manku

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 03:21 PM

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 12:21 PM, said:

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

FWIW, studies have shown that 93% of players on fantasy sites like Draftkings are losers...not only have insiders taken advantage of their knowledge (it's not like it's a regulated business!), but there are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

Apparently those winning percentages are about the same for online poker.  

Have fun, but Caveat Emptor!

PS.  Not sure how legalized gambling will affect those with bookies.  Bookies extend credit, allow one to place futures bets without having to put cash upfront (season bets for major sporting leagues), and don't report to the IRS.

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

here are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

That might be true for Baseball and Football, but NOT for golf. Take it from someone with 20+ years experience writing algorithms, who has spent 3 years writing "golf" algorithms and doing data analysis. I can talk to you for hours on why algorithms for PGA tour golf does NOT work, but it boils down to a couple of things

1) You HAVE to choose the winner.
2) All the players in your lineup HAVE to make the cut
3) At least 3 of your 6 players MUST finish in the top 10
4) 2 of the other 3 players MUST be in the top 20
5) The last player MUST be top 50.
6) With a 144 player field, there are BILLIONS of combinations (or close to even with Salary Cap)
7) Literally ANYONE in the field can win, and in fields that are less than a 5 on Strength of Field, it is almost impossible to predict. Most tournaments are 0-2 on Strength of Field

I still run my simulations, but have given up playing bulk entries.


And in case you think I am kidding... see screenshot attached.

dfs.png

Forgive me for my pea sized brain, but am I to infer from your post that betting on the PGA tour is a complete crapshoot?

PS.  I do bet weekly and have picked a few winners...but usually it's by betting the same player every week and finally getting lucky!

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#19 golfnhack

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 03:31 PM

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 03:21 PM, said:

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 12:21 PM, said:

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

FWIW, studies have shown that 93% of players on fantasy sites like Draftkings are losers...not only have insiders taken advantage of their knowledge (it's not like it's a regulated business!), but there are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

Apparently those winning percentages are about the same for online poker.  

Have fun, but Caveat Emptor!

PS.  Not sure how legalized gambling will affect those with bookies.  Bookies extend credit, allow one to place futures bets without having to put cash upfront (season bets for major sporting leagues), and don't report to the IRS.

View Postmanku, on 14 May 2018 - 11:33 AM, said:

here are many really smart quants out there from MIT who use math and algorithms instead of hunches.

That might be true for Baseball and Football, but NOT for golf. Take it from someone with 20+ years experience writing algorithms, who has spent 3 years writing "golf" algorithms and doing data analysis. I can talk to you for hours on why algorithms for PGA tour golf does NOT work, but it boils down to a couple of things

1) You HAVE to choose the winner.
2) All the players in your lineup HAVE to make the cut
3) At least 3 of your 6 players MUST finish in the top 10
4) 2 of the other 3 players MUST be in the top 20
5) The last player MUST be top 50.
6) With a 144 player field, there are BILLIONS of combinations (or close to even with Salary Cap)
7) Literally ANYONE in the field can win, and in fields that are less than a 5 on Strength of Field, it is almost impossible to predict. Most tournaments are 0-2 on Strength of Field

I still run my simulations, but have given up playing bulk entries.


And in case you think I am kidding... see screenshot attached.

dfs.png

Forgive me for my pea sized brain, but am I to infer from your post that betting on the PGA tour is a complete crapshoot?

PS.  I do bet weekly and have picked a few winners...but usually it's by betting the same player every week and finally getting lucky!

No... I am saying that playing Daily Fantasy Golf is a complete crap shoot.

I have waaaaaay more success betting on Golf.
"Some emotions cannot be endured with a golf club in your hand." - Bobby Jones

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#20 Holy Moses

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 05:27 PM

View PostCEPick, on 14 May 2018 - 02:34 PM, said:

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today

Like he gambles legally....

He didn't really have much of a chance to before

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#21 2putttom

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 05:30 PM

View Postgolfnhack, on 14 May 2018 - 02:16 PM, said:

View Post2putttom, on 14 May 2018 - 02:14 PM, said:

View PostHoly Moses, on 14 May 2018 - 11:57 AM, said:

Phil Mickelson is the happiest man on the planet today
#me too.   :~$

Well... he needed a lift after Callaway Clothing Division lost millions after his performance last week.
He/they got plenty of exposure on here in a span of 48 hours without spending one dime on advertising.
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#22 lumberman2462

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Posted 14 May 2018 - 06:25 PM

There’s a guy on  here from Miami (I think) named Awsi Dooger....

Get a line on what he’s betting on and follow.  I think you’ll come out ahead.  

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#23 Awsi Dooger

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 12:53 AM

View Postlumberman2462, on 14 May 2018 - 06:25 PM, said:

There’s a guy on  here from Miami (I think) named Awsi Dooger....

Get a line on what he’s betting on and follow.  I think you’ll come out ahead.  

Thank you. I'm certainly way ahead on sports and advantage slot machines, but admittedly I did it in a favorable era. The sportsbooks are only as good as their power ratings. When I traveled to Las Vegas from Los Angeles in 1984 it was immediately obvious that many sportsbook managers were making up the betting lines on the fly, with little to no mathematical foundation. That was particularly true in sports like golf and women's basketball. The books also had no way to communicate with each other. Everybody had a separate line and it was simple to cherry pick all over town. Consequently I did very well on stuff like the early head to head matchups, to the point Harrah's banned me from betting on golf and enforced it for a full decade. At that point the matchups were only offered on the majors. The Imperial Palace was the first sportsbook to offer weekly head to head golf matchups, beginning in late August 1989.

The '90s were really awesome because you still had every joint with its own independent line, and many of the joints run by old time bookmakers who were willing to gamble. Some of them were flat out crooks. I've mentioned that several times previously. Top guys at the Mirage and MGM Grand were putting up intentionally bad lines for brief periods of time, allowing a handful of specific guys to bet into the bad numbers in agreement for shoveling some of the profit back to the manager himself. That is not theory or cynicism. It was blatant and went on for years. As I mentioned long before the Billy Walters conviction, he doesn't do anything without a built in artificial advantage ahead of time. That's a lot easier than grinding away into legitimate numbers, like his early Computer Boys years.

The early 2000s were a jolt because the gaming control board cracked down on a few things, the golf matchups eventually became more uniform and sophisticated, and more than anything the corporate mergers turned 40-45 separate lines in town to more like 10-15. Disgusting satellite operations galore. Consequently my edge wasn't what it used to be so I left town full time in late 2008 and turned more toward the stock market, with some sports wagering on the side.

I can't believe the guy in this thread who was wasting so much time on golf algorithms aimed at finding the winner of the event, as opposed to winner of the matchups. The matchups are not as friendly as they used to be because so often they are limited to within the same pairing, as opposed to years ago when you could get a distinct weather advantage by playing a matchup of two guys teeing off hours apart. But matchups are still the way to proceed. I've mentioned that for a few years beginning in '99 I won over 65% of matchup wagers simply by taking the player with superior driving distance and putting average. That was it. So simple. I found it via Excel tinkering. For a while I thought it would never end. Then the books wised up and almost overnight the matchups were no longer featuring a player who was both longer and a superior putter to his opponent.

Given this ruling I'll have to look into the matchups more carefully again. From experience the systematic methods are the way to go, and a handful of big picture criteria are more reliable than wiggling and nitpicking every tiny detail to force something to fit. You don't want to be subjectively handicapping every week. Nobody is that good when the potential advantages are so tiny. Find a logical angle or several that produces volume and an edge. Neither one is any good without the other. The most successful sports bettors make thousands of wagers a year. That offsets the luck factor and also aids your cause if you dependably find the best possible line.

With so many statistical categories now available there have to be 3-4 that in combination generate a logical matchup edge. I don't pretend to know that combination nowadays. I wish I had something as easy for the PGA as the 5 foot 6 angle in women's golf. But with a decent template and time investment it shouldn't take more than 4-6 weeks to isolate something. This is the perfect time of year, with so many tournaments already banked. In '99 when I found that distance/putting combo I didn't have any preconceived notions or biases. I merely inputted the matchups every week along with the major statistics prior to that event, and then the result of the matchup. I waited a month or so before ever hitting the calculate button. Then that bottom line was so startling I didn't have to do any additional work for several years.

Nowadays, of course, you've got day to day matchups and even some in-play stuff, while I was dealing strictly with full tournament matchups at the time. I still am most comfortable with those but I'm not saying that is the correct approach. Some of my fiends who have remained with golf betting all these years prefer day to day.

BTW, it will be interesting to see how various states handle this. Some might insist on more juice than others, or more taxation or participation fees. I assume online funding and wagering will be straight forward, unlike the current hassle with offshore outfits. They can't well expect people to shop for everything online but be forced to go to a betting parlor for this type of pursuit.

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#24 golfnhack

golfnhack

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 09:32 AM

View PostAwsi Dooger, on 16 May 2018 - 12:53 AM, said:

I can't believe the guy in this thread who was wasting so much time on golf algorithms aimed at finding the winner of the event, as opposed to winner of the matchups.

You have a CLEAR misunderstanding of what I was attempting to do, and clearly do not play or know how daily fantasy sports works. You would see your @$$ playing daily fantasy sports golf. You may stand a chance entering 1 lineup in a $1000 room with 5 entrants, but on a $25 entry into one of the Million $ contests.... good luck. Again... before you criticize others... take the time to understand what you are talking about.

Edited by golfnhack, 16 May 2018 - 09:33 AM.

"Some emotions cannot be endured with a golf club in your hand." - Bobby Jones

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