North Butte, on 12 July 2017 - 08:39 AM, said:
From the Arccos web site:
Tour Analytics is rooted in the strokes gained methodology now in use on the PGA tour. In a nutshell, it analyzes every shot you take and determines whether you got more or less out of that shot than you should have.
If they are computing "strokes gained" without accounting for obstructed/recovery shots then there is a major flaw in any conclusions you draw about driving vs approach shots.
220 yard drive, 30 yards left of the fairway, open shot to the green of 150 yards.
220 yard drive, 30 yards left of the fairway, blocked out by tree requiring chip out sideways.
The tee shot in the second scenario is nearly a full stroke worse than the first scenario. Game Golf treats those two tee shots as equal in value. I suspect Arccos does as well, do you know for sure whether it does?
But they are NOT computing "strokes gained"; that's the point! They are using the strokes gained work done by Broadie (and others, I assume) to compare what I am doing with a driver to other golfers, and then estimating how well I am driving the ball. That they present it as an estimated handicap is not hard to understand; in fact, there is no other way to do that I can think of.
As to your two scenarios with a 220 yard drive, I can only guess how the Arccos algorithms handle that. I'd be a little bit (pleasantly) surprised if the Arccos algorithms count account for the tree that is blocking me in the second scenario, just as I would be a little bit (pleasantly) surprised if Arccos could account for a drive hitting a tree and bouncing forward and back into the fairway, or hitting a cart path and bouncing forward an additional 20 yards, or any of the other myraid of things that happen on a golf course. None of that bothers me, because I'm looking at literally HUNDREDS of shots; no one shot is going to be statistically significant, and if I consistently miss fairways by 30 yards, guess what? Arccos will tell me that I suck, except using numbers. I've had individual rounds where Arccos told me that I drove the ball like a 30+ handicap, but I knew what they meant by that.
The reason is that I'm looking for a large picture. I now have, according to the app, 656 shots with the driver recorded and analyzed by Arccos; that's a LOT of data. Without question, some of the shots were "unusual" in the sense that they ended up better or worse than similarly struck shots. But speaking ONLY for myself (not Arccos!) I'm assuming that over the course of HUNDREDS of shots, the data washes out, and the analysis that Arccos gives me is at least reasonably accurate and useful. Not perfect; reasonably accurate and useful. Being blocked, or not blocked, by a tree when I've missed the fairway by 30 yards brings in an element of luck that I don't think it's reasonable for Arccos to be able to deal with, and in the big picture of hundreds of driver shots, it isn't statistically significant anyway.
(BTW, I have 1518 putts recorded; that plus the driver are more shots than ALL other clubs in the bag combined! In case any of us doubted that driving and putting are HUGE...)
At the end of it all, I don't really care too much about how Arccos handles those two scenarios. Here's what I DO care about from the driver stats:
1. If I hit the ball solidly, I can figure on about 219 yds, with a max under "normal" conditions of 230. (BTW, this verifies what Trackman told me in my last driver fitting.)
2. I'm hitting 68.1% of fairways with the driver.
3. 14.9% of my drives miss left, and 16.9% of my drives miss right. (This is the one that REALLY bothers me; two way misses are death if you want to play good tournament golf, which I do, and this MUST be addressed!)
Besides that, in the case of the open shot of 150 in the first scenario, the issue becomes my approach capabilities. In the second scenario, my approach capabilities are going to be based on BOTH shots, not just the chip out or the third shot, and Arccos will give me approach stats as well as stats on each club that reflect that. If I use a 7 iron to punch out, that shot will not figure into my 7 iron stats because it's an outlier; if I then use a 9 iron from the fairway for my third shot, that shot WILL show up in my 9 iron distance and accuracy stats, assuming that I make reasonable contact. BOTH shots are in the approach data, though, just like a missed green and a subsequent chip are in the approach data. It took me two shots to hit the green from 150 yds in both cases, and THAT is what is significant, at least to me.
For Game Golf (with which I have no familiarity) or Arccos to account for the tree, we'd have to have an employee of the company following us around and posting data to Shotlink for analysis. It's possible that might cost more than the one-time expenditure of $250, so I'll settle for the useful (if imperfect?) data that I'm getting.