Opinion & Analysis

David Toms, Louisiana’s hometown hero, discusses his sticks

Published

4 years ago

Apr 24, 2020

John Wunder

Just to kick this off, I am a huge fan of David Toms. Have been since his Zevo days. This was a pleasure to write.

David Toms is the chosen son of Louisiana golf. Nobody in recent memory garners the amount of excitement or favor as DT. And it’s well earned. The guy is as well-liked and respected for his play and demeanor as anyone out there period. One of the most interesting aspects of his career was his ability to build efficiency and playability in his bag regardless of ego.

We had a chance to chat with David and Cleveland/Srixon tour rep Jeff Burleigh about his clubs, and this is what they had to say.

JW: What was in your bag at the beginning of your career and what was your knowledge level (of your equipment) at that time?

DT: I used Yamaha irons and woods when I first turned pro, switching to Mizuno when I got my Hogan Tour card.

I didn’t pay much attention to equipment at that time. I just knew what I hit well and what I didn’t. I liked to keep it simple.

JW: Talk to me about your time with Zevo (1997, 1998) and what your overall opinion was of that experience and the equipment. Were you in the clubs top to bottom?

DT: Zevo was my first experience with custom-fit clubs, and I thought they did a really nice job with their equipment especially loved the fairway woods. They worked. I won my first event with them at Quad City.

JW: Your relationship with Cleveland started in 1999 and continued for the bulk of your career, how did that come about and what attracted you to them?

DT: I sat next to their president Greg Hopkins on a flight to the 1997 PGA at Winged Foot and talked about the possibility of me representing them in the near future. Obviously, it was a good partnership. I was with them for 15-plus years and have great memories.

JW: You have preferred a forged cavity back for the bulk of your career. Why do your preferences go in that direction over a muscle back?

DT: I need all the help I can get! And I always felt like I didn’t give up any control with a compact cavity back iron. Played them consistently my whole career.

JW: What set of irons during your career was your favorite? What wedges were your favorite?

DT: The original [Cleveland] 588 irons and wedges, without question.

JW: You have also been a player that hasn’t been afraid to combo a set, meaning as early as 2001 you would put a beefed-up 3-iron in the bag. Why was that?

DT: Again I just felt that I needed the forgiveness in the long irons. Having a more forgiving long iron in the bag gave me the ability to hold a few more greens from 200-plus yards out.

JW: You have one club that is a bit more famous than the others, which is the Cleveland Quad Pro 5-wood with the Bi-Matrix shaft. Since you have leaned towards hybrids to fill that gap, what do the hybrids offer you that the 5-wood doesn’t?

DT: I felt that the hybrids provided a little more versatility in windy conditions and were better for the longer par 3s.

JW: You have always been in a three wedge setup (48/54/60). Have you ever tried adding a fourth wedge for gapping?

DT: I will put an extra wedge in the bag at some of the Champions Tour tournaments depending on the course. Usually, 48/54/60 is the setup.

JW: Talk to me about your time with TaylorMade. What went well? What didn’t work?

DT: I really enjoyed my time at TaylorMade. What a great golf equipment company! I thought the woods were second-to-none at that time but struggled a bit with the wedges. I think the wedges these days are really well designed just not during that time period, I had a 14 club deal, so that made it difficult for me inside 100 yards. Again, I would not hesitate to use their wedges nowadays.

JW: If you could build your favorite bag of all time, what would it look like?

DT:

TaylorMade M2 driver

Cleveland Quad Pro fairway wood

Cleveland Launcher hybrid

Cleveland 588 irons and wedges (the original Roger Cleveland design)

Scotty Cameron Coronado putter

JW: What is currently in your bag?

DT:

Driver: Callaway Mavrik 10.5. Project X Evenflow Blue 65 6.0 (255 Carry)

FW: Callaway Epic 15. Project X Evenflow 75 6.0 (235 Carry)

FW: Callaway 5 wood 18. Project X Evenflow 85 6.0 (225 Carry)

Hybrid: Cleveland Launcher 20.5. Project X-HC1 6.5 (215 Carry)

Irons: Srixon Z585 (4) Z785 (5-PW). Nippon Pro Modus3 Tour 105 S

Carry Numbers

4/200

5/190

6/180

7/167

8/155

9/140

PW/128

Wedges: Callaway MD4 54 (105 carry), 60 (85 Carry). Dynamic Gold Tour Issue S400

Putter: Scotty Cameron

Ball: Titleist Pro V1

We also had the chance to speak with Jeff Burleigh from the Cleveland/Srixon tour department. This was his input on DT.

JW: Overall, what was the recurring theme in your time with DT? Was it fighting a miss? Finding height? Spin etc. Every player seems to look for one specific thing.

JB: David Toms really didn’t have many swing issues. Very smooth and incredibly efficient. David was an absolute dream to work with because his swing was always the same. The main issue was dispersion and feel. He loved being able to feel the clubhead and response of an active shaft. With better feel came a touch more dispersion, so we balanced the two. Focusing on the perfect build and keeping everything consistent which flowed into his game. His entrance into the trailer was always “OK. Where are you hiding all the new stuff?…as he slowly opened the drawers trying to find the latest and greatest.

JW: His preference in irons always leaned towards cavity backs (588P, 588P CG2 stamped, CG2 Tour, CG7 etc) what was the process like getting him into a new iron and why was the preference towards CB.

JB: Yes, he always leaned towards our cavity backs but not necessarily for forgiveness, it was purely for the offset. He loved the look of offset irons. Most of our iron creations back then were tailored from that original 588P. The process was very easy with David, as long as the visual aspect was there and the head appealed to his eye, he was always on board. My job was to create a new set exactly like the gamer. As long as they matched and the visual offset appeal, he was all in. He loved to work with us to improve the product, which made our equipment better. If the equipment was better, then he would play it every time.

JW: He was in a Project X Rifle 6.0 for a good portion of his career. Did he ever mess with other shafts in the irons and why?

JB: Yes. We would try just about everything available at the time. Far less than today because there were fewer shaft companies, especially if it was new. The best shaft that he felt helped him in competition. The only way to know back then was to build it and hit it. He would usually play Wednesday’s pro-am with the experimental set then give me feedback after the round. He always gave everything we built a chance.

There were a few shafts he gravitated to. Shortly after joining us, he tried the new Dynamic Gold Lite in S400. David loved the feel and the flight was very controlled. He played and won a few tournaments with them. That shaft had a .610 butt. Which was a little bigger than the other steel options. When gripping, he always wanted a smaller grip so I had to do a little stretchy stretch on the grip to get the size just right. 60 round Tour Velvets were always easy to work with.

When the 6.0 Project X came out, he was very interested. He felt the shaft did one thing better than the DG Lite: dispersion was tighter. The composition of that shaft was consistent. Frequency matching was the big deal then, and I believe the slightly heavier weight made his good shots just a little better. Also, the spin rate was down just a touch to flatten the flight. Leep in mind we had monster grooves back then. We did do one thing different on the install: I stepped them out one just because the hosel was lower in the CB iron. We didn’t want them playing stiffer than 6.0, so we favored the softer install.

JW: DT has always preferred a higher launch profile in his driver. Did he have trouble getting the ball in the air or was that for a bit more spin/control?

JB: Distance was the focus, always. His ball flight was ideal for the time. High launch and like everyone said, sneaky long. He was one of the few at the time not discouraged by loft (10 degrees and above). Always leading overall driving. He was top 5 on tour in efficiency. If my memory serves me correctly, actually top three if not leading. Shaft of choice was the Black Grafalloy Prolite in our Cleveland Comp head. Control and spin seemed to be always constant with him.

JW: Did he have consistent specs over the years?

JB: Yes. Driver was a 45-inch Grafalloy ProLite Black. 60 gram D3 with Tour Velvet 60 round. Pretty square face. 59-degree lie and 10.5-degree loft.

His Quad Pro 3 and 5-wood. With the BiMatrix steel-graphite combo. I remember the 3-wood was 42.5 and D5. 5-wood was 42. D5. Tour Velvet grip.

Irons were standard length. Degree strong, which then was 47 on PW and 1/2-degree upright. Irons were around D2-D2.5. His light grips helped us achieve a standard swing weight. We used lead tape to fine-tune the weights if needed. Everything we built was weight sorted (grips, shafts, heads), so the specs would always be consistent. Wedges were always standard length. One degree up and D5.

JW: Did you ever do anything special to his wedges? Grinding?

JB: The only thing I did that was different was spinning the shafts with a three bearing fishing spine jig called the spin finder. Used in fly fishing, we used it on golf shafts. Worked extremely well on graphite as most had two spines front and back. It was never mandatory during install but I always felt it can’t hurt our players so I generally did it unless I was buried in build trying to survive. Consistency is key whether it’s you or in the bag.

Grinding was only for weight. To achieve D5, I took across the entire back so as not to change the center of gravity. Our wedges are the best out of the wrapper, simply the way they are designed. David never was interested in massive grinding because he trusted my assessment that it changes the center of gravity negatively. He also liked bounce which we had plenty of. Once in a while, he would want a little bounce removed or added depending on where we were in the country.

Cosmetically, I would gently touch the leading edge to blend the set as well as soften the edge just a little. A little hand buff with some WD40 to even the finish and he was pleased. David loved a new set of wedges, but then again who doesn’t.

I always enjoyed David Toms—fun in the trailer, and you always had a feeling of accomplishment working with him. He’s always been a great friend, and I’ll always reflect back with a smile on my face. Sure miss those days.

*Fun little nugget from a tour rep perspective: When David had that 60-degree into 18 to beat Phil at the 2001 PGA Championship, I had just built that club that week and was freaking out watching coverage from my Hampton Inn. Going over the build in my head panicking when he hit the shot. Shaft, length, lie, loft…OK. Phew. 12 feet for the win.

Your Reaction?

LIKE159
LEGIT24
WOW13
LOL2
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK4

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

19 hours ago

Mar 26, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

Tom Hoge (+1.30)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
Keith Mitchell (+0.97)
Tony Finau (+0.92)
Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
Cameron Champ (+0.86)
Rafael Campos (+0.84)
Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

Adam Svensson (+1.27)
Harry Hall (+1.01)
Martin Trainer (+0.94)
Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
S.H. Kim (+0.68)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past.

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
Ben Griffin (+1.75)
Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
Ben Taylor (+1.53)
Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park.

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
Ben Taylor (+3.40)
Tony Finau (+2.37)
Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

Scottie Scheffler
Wyndham Clark
Tony Finau
Joel Dahmen
Stephan Jaeger
Aaron Rai
Sahith Theegala
Keith Mitchell
Jhonnatan Vegas
Jason Day
Kurt Kitayama
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Si Woo Kim
Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions. The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

Your Reaction?

LIKE8
LEGIT1
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK1

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

Published

5 days ago

Mar 22, 2024

Brendan Ryan

B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

Your Reaction?

LIKE14
LEGIT4
WOW1
LOL2
IDHT0
FLOP1
OB0
SHANK11

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

1 week ago

Mar 18, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
2022: Sam Burns (-17)
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

Tony Finau (+.90)
Nick Taylor (+.81)
Justin Thomas (+.77)
Greyson Sigg (+.69)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
Tony Finau (+1.24)
Cameron Young (+1.17)
Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (+9.0)
Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
Austin Cook (+9.7)
Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
Cameron Young (+1.27)
Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
Sam Burns (+2.49)
Davis Riley (+2.33)
Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

Xander Schauffele
Doug Ghim
Victor Perez
Greyson Sigg
Ryan Moore
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Sam Ryder
Sam Burns
Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?