I played a round yesterday and had what has been my typical round of late where I play well on a few holes (2 birdies), marginal on most, and then a couple of big numbers as well. On 18, a 368 yd par 4, I played the hole as well as most anyone could. Hit a great drive off the tee, hit an 8 Iron that landed 2 inches from the cup, hit the pin, and came to rest 6 feet from the hole. I then rolled the putt in for a birdie. Later that night I was thinking that it was about as good as anyone could play that hole (short of a hole out which is more reliant on luck than anything else). Sure the clubs being used would vary, but a better result than birdie is unlikely and a par wouldn't be out of the question.

So it got me thinking that if i played a round with a tour pro, what would be the chances that I could beat him on one hole if I had 18 chances to do it?

Share your thoughts...

I don't see why not if you are making birdies. A pro won't birdie every hole, so if you are putting them up as well, then it's possible. I don't know how likely it is, but certainly possible.

A Small chance, if you are playing against a pro who is right handed, and he is playing with left handed clubs.

If it's one hole...you (we) have a chance. We can all play one great hole.

While there is a stupidly small chance, you have to realize the types of courses the pros shoot 6 under on would turn your 13-16 hndcp into a 35

It's not too hard to get lucky on one hole....or have the pro play one hole poorly.
e.g. Yang's double on the weekend where he pretty much shanked the ball from a fairway bunker.
Or 13-16 capper making a birdie when the pro burns the edge on his birdie putt...

Lest we not forget the hole out for a 2 or 3.

Bottom line is that yes it can be done....but more often than not the answer is going to be no.

To add, at the tour or elite amature level, there is a big difference in the quality of "pars" and "birdies" to the ones most 13-16 cappers make. Sure the score may be the same, but there is a difference between scrambling and dropping a 25' putt for par...and tapping in for par after just burning the edge on a 8' putt for birdie.

Mike,
I believe you have three chances of beating a tour pro. Slim, anorexic and bulimic LOL in all seriousness though you should never stop trying to improve.

Geez, some of these replies make it seem so unlikely. You play a great hole and make a birdie and the PGA pro makes par. You win the hole. You may not even need a birdie. Pros make bogeys all the time - or worse.

Thanks for the responses so far fellas. I agree with everything said so far. While it is unlikely, I do think it is possible. A player at my level can certainly play that "perfect hole" and if that hole was up against a pro's average or poor hole, he would have a better than average shot at posting a lower score on that hole.

I was just pondering this over a beer the other night and thought I would see what other people's opinions were.

Tough to beat a birdie on a par 4. It could be done fairly easily. The odds are probably like 1 in 25 that you could be a tour pro on one hole.

Remember what Jack Nicklaus once said. "If you consistently shoot in the low 80s, your best 4 iron shot, or your best 3 wood shot ever, probably is as good as mine". Thats whats great about golf, you can do the same exact thing as the best in the world. Maybe not over 18 holes.... but maybe on a hole or two.

People make mistakes......so, yes.

Provocative question. I'd like to say, "yeah, a 13-16 might win one or two."

But I once played with a very good club pro and the round went like this: we were playing cart golf from the tee to fairway...however from our respective balls he just stuck it on every green and was putting for a birdie on every hole. I missed quite a few greens and struggled making pars and bogeys. The pro shot a 66 and I shot an 83. A decent round for me, but it felt like I got wiped out as he beat me by 17 strokes--all of them around the green. His game was basically how far is he going to be from the pin and will he make the putt?

As pointed out a pro can't make a mistake or two, but if they are on...it's lights out. To win you'd have to peak when they falter (if they falter).

On a hole or 2 during an 18 hole round, anything can happen. I was playing in a match one time on a short par 4 (300 yards) my opponent hits his shot into the fairway bunker and his next shot is going to have to carry another bunker to a tight pin on a 60 yard shot. I on the other hand hit iron off the tee, left myself 105 to the flag and stuck it to about 8 feet. He proceeded to skull the shot, skip it through the bunker by the green, it hit the flag and dropped in. I hit my next shot to 8 feet, missed my birdie putt and made 4. This scenario or something of the like is entirely possible.

So, yes, I think you have a good chance of winning a single hole. As the old saying goes 'even a blind squirrel finds a nut'.

Is that true? What a great line. There are those once or twice a round shots that are so good, you know they couldn't be hit any better. Some rounds more than others, some less.

Your thread reminded me of something.

I thought of each hole on my home course and at one point or another I've birdied 17 of those holes and parred the other one (a very long par 4 I struggle with). What it tell me is I am capable of having a good round, but my inconsistency, my mental game, or what have you gets in the way of going low and/or staying low.

We've all hit shot a pro would take in a heartbeat on any given Sunday, but...

I would think it is possible over 18 but the odds are not good. The underlying assumption, in my mind, is that you play your same game! I know the first time I played with a Pro I was taking lessons from I was pretty nervous for some reason. It went away but I would think playing against a PGA Tour pro would be a another level of nervousness....even if it is nervous excitement you are still playing in an unfamiliar state!

Possible yes but it would be tough I bet....

Ken

There's no doubt one's odds would improve farther down on the money list. I say below Top 50 there's a greater chance. Top 50...dicey.

Not only no, but HELL NO!

I agree. I think nervousness and being "out of your eliment" would play a huge role in this. It's one thing to play well with your buddies during your weekend game, but another story if you were playing with tour pro. I would imagine some would deal with it better than others and that alone might separate those who could from those who couldn't. No question it would be a tough task, but I still think it is possible. Not saying I could though...

you absolutely could, it's not even a question. Maybe you wouldn't do it in every round. But unless you have never made a birdie in your life and never will, you have a chance to win 1 hole. A pro would probably shoot 63-67 on a tough private type course, that leaves a lot of holes that you can play well, birdie, and win the hole. Or you could get the odd stroke of luck and win with a par

i play with guys who are 20+ handicaps and they beat me on 1-2 holes every 18. The difference between a 13-16 and a pro is much greater obviously. But i think you could beat a pro on one hole in maybe a third of your rounds. Let's say 1 in 50 chance

In golf the difference between good players and poor players is magnified as the number of holes played increases. Sure, any player who birdies a hole will probably beat Tiger Woods on that hole. We know this because even Tiger birdies less than 50% of the holes he plays. (anyone who doesn't understand this concept is invited to my weekly poker game. Bring money) He loses holes to inferior players all the time. As the number of holes played increases so does Tiger’s advantage. By the time the round is over Tiger waxes the 15 handicapper. By the time a 72 hole tournament is over Tiger waxes most of the field, but in a one hole match anyone who can get on the green and sink a putt can win.

Steve

Any player can beat any other player on one hole. Think about all the hacks you know that have made an ace. Anyone can win a hole.

Winning for 9 or 18 holes, with handicaps like that, not likely but not impossible.

My handicap is a bit lower (10), but I have beaten a tour pro over 18 holes. Shot the lowest round of my life, while he made a couple of big numbers and I beat him by two. That said, I've probably played 50 rounds with him over the years and I've only beaten him that one time (gross at least).

One myth I keep seeing on this forum is that the courses tour pro's play are so hard that it makes a 13 handicapper into a 20 or something along those lines. That's why there are course and slope ratings and it's just not the case. Also, the course conditions for tour pro's are much better than most people will ever get to play. I've been fortunate to play in a few pro-am's and the courses always play easier that week than during a normal week. Of course, I like fast, perfect greens and that's the biggest difference. The PGA likes birdies, so they set the courses up that way. Now the USGA, well that's a completely different animal.

I think this is a great explanation. It is tough to do, but is possible; and that is the OP's original question, could it happen.

Like I said, this is a provocative question. I think we may be getting a little stratified in our thinking. I may be wrong, but I see it this way: what is the probability of a PGA tour pro making a birdie or par on any given hole? Versus what is the probability of a 13-16 handicapper making a birdie or par on any give hole? I think there is a significantly lower probability a 13-16 handicapper will make either of those two scores versus the pro. In any case this scenario would repeat itself 18 times--once for each hole.

Any statisticians out there? We can figure this out mathematically. Then someone can play a tour pro to validate the findings.

2 hopes... Bob Hope & No Hope

possible, but not probable

I can't put the answer into a probability percentage but will say if you were playing against a pro in a game, the pressure of the game and who your playing against would most likely influence you to such a degree, I'd bet you couldn't pull off the shots in the same manner as you did playing by yourself.

It's one thing to string some shots together and pick up a birdie, my 20 index buddy does that now and again. It's all together something different playing a game against somebody that much better and use to the surrounding pressure conditions. I hope that answers your question.

Hilarious.

That's like saying if you buy $50 in lottery tickets, you have a better chance of hitting the big one than if you spend $2.

I think the point is, out of those 18 "one time" contests, the pro would win the majority. They will consistently par or birdie you to death. The difference between us and them is every now and then they hit a poor shot, while every now and then we hit a great one.

I doubt I could beat most guys below 50th in the world. Here are some examples...


JM Singh
Justin Rose
Davis Love III
Stephen Ames

I believe I could and I am a 25 handicap! Let me explain. I used to be a 4 handicap but because of numerous back injuries, kids and no time to play, I have climbed to a 25. But, and it doesn't happen often, I can shoot even par for nine holes or plus four for 18. This is sandwiched between the times I shoot anywhere from 83-106! LOL

So all I am saying is that it is possible. I hit a few greens in regulation, the pro misses his putt and I make mine. Done deal.

I wouldn't put alot of money on it, but if any pro wants to play me next year I will take the challenge. I would prefer Steve Stricker just cause he's my boy!

I changed my mind. LOL. Ok, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say a 16 handicap probably has little to no chance. Why? How many birdies does a avg 16 handicap make in 18 holes, ok, say 36 holes? I bet only 1 at most. The avg tour pro, lets say they come and play you on your course, would probably birdie 5 to 6 holes, maybe more. Slim to no chance. I put the odds to somewhere around 1 in 36 chances at best.

MikeC, Sure lightening can strike anytime. I'm a 18 HC and got paired up against a +2 in a match play event a couple years ago (talk about the luck of the draw). I went 2 up after the first two holes, (gross no hc involved). he proceeded to win the next 11 holes to win 6&5. Guess I woke the sleeping dog.

But to your point about playing the hole as well as anyone could. No doubt nice birdie, but take a look at what the typical tour pro would do on that 368 yard hole. Probably bust a drive in the 300 yard range and have a 3/4 sw or lw into the green. From 70 yards most tour pros are going to put that within 3 to 5 feet, 90 percent of the time and make that putt about 99 percent.

So they probably birdie that hole 8 times out of 10 easily. You or me for instance may birdie it once every 20 rounds if we're lucky. So you just have to hope the stars align and your one time that you do, is the one or two times they don't.

So it COULD happen, but likely? Not very at all.

CG2, so you won 2 holes against a +2? That sort of proves my point. Sure the average tour pro would attack that hole differently, but that doesn't mean they will pull off all the shots. The driver could go crooked (OB left on this particular hole and a gapiing bunker right), the wedge in could be less than stellar, etc. I agree with what the general consenus seems to be here in that it is possible but not probable. I happen to think it is more probable than some, but it would be a tough test for sure. It would be interesting to test the theory out...

Well, a +2 isn't really a tour player. The OP asked if a 13 or 16 capper could be a Tour Player. Keep in mind a Tour player is more like a + 4 or 5 cap. I know I'm splitting hairs here. I do still think it can be done, but it would take probably more than 18 holes IM0.

I agree that a club +2HC isn't the same as a tour pro for many different reasons. But CG2 is an 18HC too so a little outside of my original range. I'm with you though, I think it could be done. I think it is an interesting debate.

Mike, guess I disputed my own point huh?

Although we do know from reading all the other threads a +2 is a hack compared to a tour pro But you know after reading your question and giving it more thought, I'm thinking this would actually be a great feature for CBS/NBC or TGC.

Each week at a tour stop they pick one or two fans and have them play a "beat the pro" hole. If a fan actually beats the pro on the hole, he wins a prize and then become eligible for a spot in a pro am at the Tour Championship or Players Championship the next year.

I think that would be a lot more interesting than the, Can a 10HC'er break 100 at the Open.

Just a thought.

I think it would too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

I Think a 13-16 would have a chance, but not a great one.

A 5-8 would have a much better chance, because they are making birdies much more regularly.

A scratch golfer I would bet would take at least one hole from a pro per round.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day !!

I am always amazed when subjects like can "guy x" beat a "tour player" come up. The common theme is nobody discussing it has a reasonably comparable game.

Here's a tid bit during the show "playing lessons with a Pro" with Ian Poulter, Stephanie Parks asks him if he plays in his clubs championship; he says "yes". She asks Poulter if he won? He shakes his head and says "no way". There are some really good amateurs.

Point here is good amateurs that are not intimidated by a Pro can throw up a game that on any given day be better then what the Pro shoots.

I honestly think it would happen at least once or so a round more often than not. A pro makes a bogey, you make a par, pros also make pars A LOT, all you need is the occasional birdie when he pars. I am a 6 handicap and play with a friend who is about a 30. He beats me on a hole every now and then, dont know if you all think that is a good analogy......
It also depends on the pro, I would guess you could beat someone like John Daly, or even PM on a hole every now and then, they make a lot of big numbers hitting risky shots, however they also make a lot of birdies.

It also depends on the course and the tees, if you are playing a tour level course from the tips it would be more difficult, if you are playing a course of avg. difficulty and are playing the mens tees while the pro is playing the championship tees it would increase your odds some.

There is a chance you can win a single hole against any player in the world. That's a fact. It is the nature of the game. Especially the nature of match play.

That's like asking "Can a 13-15 handicapper make a hole in one?" Obviously the answer is yes. Anybody can make a hole in one. Is it likely? Not really. Is it possible? Absolutely.

Same goes with winning one hole against a tour pro. Though it is unlikely, it is possible.

Pepper, good point. Also I read a the book Living on the Black by John Feinstein, where he followed Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina for a year. There was a section of the book where they talked about Glavine hated leaving John Smoltz as a teammate because of all the good golf they got to play that Smoltz arranged. Smoltz a scratch of +1 or 2, is a good friend and regular playing partner of Tigers and often times they play straight up and Smoltz has beaten him, for money games he may get 1 or 2 a side.

So sure scratch's could easily play against a pro and not be embarrassed, and even win some holes here and there. But a 16 to 18 HC would require just pure luck. But someone said it best about the broken clock being right twice a day.

wow! still remember my best ever 4iron shot. 414 yards par 4...i hit a 5 wood 226yrds off the tee then hit my 4iron to less than 6inches to the hole.

This question is like asking: Is there any possibility that I would shoot score X ona given hole and a hypothetical pro that I happened to be paired with scored X+1 or worse. The answer is "of course it is possible." And depending on what score X is, it could happen a few times a round. On any given course, tour guys are parring most of the holes, so anytime you birdie, you have a decent chance of winning the hole against hypotheticla pro.

Similar dynamic to poker. On any given day, on any given hand, I could win a pot from a top pro like Phil Ivey. I might even beat him in a heads up competition if I get hot. Give him enough time, he will eventually utterly dominate. In the short run, anything is possible. In the long term, talent and ability become the determining factor as the "luck factor" diminishes.

The original posters question is almost like a problem in a statistics class. If you knew how many bogies or birdies a tour pro makes in 18 holes and the same with a 14 handicap you'd have to figure it out. Remember the question is over 18 holes. Personally if you did out the match calculation, I bet the odds would not be very good. Chances are the high handicap player makes no birdies and his only chance would be if he made par and the pro made bogie or worse. The Tour pro would probably have 1 bogie on the card, the 14 would need to have made par on that hole. What are the odds of that, assuming the 14 only probably makes about 5 or 6 pars in one round..? That is the question at hand. Mr. Smith could probably tell us. He's an accountant. Of course the answer is yes, but really very unlikely over an 18 hole round.

My math cal comes out to 1 in 54 chances. He have to go 54 holes to get that fist pump.

I'm going to say yes. I mean I could get hit by a bus when I check my mail tomorrow....Anything is possible.

The question is meaningful only if the tour pro isn't handicapped by the arrangements; ie, you would have to play a tour course (setup & yardage), have the same few days to familiarize yourself with it, there would be a sizable audience (galleries and TV) and the tour pro would know his only goal is not to lose a hole to you.

Then there's the other stuff... the press conferences, where you'll be grilled on why you foozled your opening drive (first tee jitters, lad?) or layed up instead of carrying the pond that fronts the green 260 yards out, signing autographs, playing in a pro-am the day before, fending off (or giving in) to the groupies, and the obligatory nterview with Johnny Miller after each of the four consecutive days of play.

And then there's your opponent, waiting on the first tee while your golf buddies finish high-fiving you - Mr. Patience himself... Rory Sabbatini!. He doesn't like you, he thinks your game is pathetic and every time you look at him he sneers back.

Tee up your Top-Flite but stick those statistics in your tour bag cause they don't begin to describe how far out of your comfort zone you're operating.

Sure. A mid handicapper could win a hole. But, the game of golf is played over 18.

I guess anything can happen. The real question is, would you put up a sizable wager that this would happen? I know I wouldn't.