With the Masters getting closer every day and Phil playing better and better, he has to be the favorite. World Rankings totally aside, who else has a better chance at winning?

Tiger is playing better every week as well, but he's still not in top form.

Who is your pick and why?

Lefty will be favorite pending Tiger's performance at Bay Hill.

If Phil continues to perform the way he did at Doral golf is gonna get a whole lot more fun to watch. I would love to see him and Tiger battle tooth and nail every week.

Would love to see Greg Norman win - that would be cool. Ogilvy is in pretty good form at the moment and has the game for it. Failing that, it's about time the Europeans put in a shout at Augusta - how about Harrington?

I'd love to see them battle as well, unfortunately it won't happen. Tiger is the favorite, and if they go head to head I'm sure PM will crumble...then he'll realize that Tiger is naturally more gifted, works harder, mental tougher and just plain leaps and bounds better than him.

I'm not a Phil hater, just a realist. Tiger hadn't played a competetive round in 8 months and he finished in the top 10 with only making 2 putts outside of 10 feet. If Tiger continues to drive the ball like he is now, it won't be a fair fight...

I believe that Tiger is still the 'Vegas' favorite....followed closely but Phil. But my picks would include Ogilvy, Kim, maybe Furyk. Then a little lower odds pick would be Villegas. Just my $0.02. You could take the top 10 out and I would easily bet the field.....I really think that it is going to be someone a little farther down the list that just has a great week.

Mickleson made a funny at his CA Champ press conference. Asked about TW's return, Phil said something to the effect that Tiger was getting back to form week by week and it shouldn't be too long until he is back to top form. "I just hope it takes him five weeks and not four..."

fav to choke maybe...

if tiger is playing, it's tiger i'm picking.

No doubt Phil is on fire right now, but what's his history with keeping the fire hot for an extended period? The Masters is still a month away. Tiger seems to be timing his peak perfectly.

Tiger will still be the favorite. Phil will probably be the second best guy to throw some cash on.

Phil could be going to the Masters as #1 in the world depending his and Tiger's finishes at Bay Hill. That would be interesting...

I'm beginning to like Phil more and more for winning at Bethpage this year. If he putts this well, he'll definitely be there on Sunday at every tournament he plays in.

And the rest of the field will fold like lawnchairs. Augusta will be lengthened to 8000 yds. More trees planted to squeeze those fairways down to the size of tee boxes. On and On and On. Last time I checked, Lefty stared down Tiger at Deutsch Bank Champ in 07 when they were paired together. I doubt that he'll fold and crumble anytime soon. I surely hope not.

Phil actually has the second best winning percentage going into the final round with the lead of all active players(w/a min. of a couple try's I think). Third place is not even close. So crumbling is a pretty harsh term. Phil's always played Tiger tough in one on one situations, Tiger just usually comes out on top. I'm hoping for a repeat of TPC Boston.

With that said, I think Phil is the favorite but if Tiger plays well and gets a Top 5 at Bay Hill then Tiger has to be the favorite. Well unless the week following that, Phil wins in Texas.

IMHO Phil should go into the Masters the favorite but I would love to see Rory win it

Let's compare Tiger and Phil at the Masters.

Tiger Woods

1997 - Won
1998 - T 8th
1999 - T 18th
2000 - 5th
2001 - Won
2002 - Won
2003 - T 15th
2004 - T 22nd
2005 - Won
2006 - T 3rd
2007 - T 2nd
2008 - T 2nd

4 - Wins
8 - Top 5
9 - Top 10
12 - Top 25 (That's 12 for 12, BTW)

Phil Mickelson

1995 - T 7th
1996 - 3rd
1997 - CUT
1998 - T 12th
1999 - T 6th
2000 - T 7th
2001 - 3rd
2002 - 3rd
2003 - 3rd
2004 - Won
2005 - 10th
2006 - Won
2007 - T 24th
2008 - T 5th

2 - Wins
7 - Top 5
11 - Top 10
13 - Top 25 (13 of 14)

If Phil wins this year, you could almost say that Phil is better than Tiger at the Masters since 2003 because he would have won it 3 times since 2003 and Tiger only once in 2005. He would then only be one win away from tying Tiger in total wins.

If Tiger wins, they are even since 2003, plus Tiger will have 5 total wins to Phil's 2 wins.

This year is huge for comparison purposes.

i believe that phil is the only guy on the tour who CAN stand toe to toe with tiger, and not crumple. At least I have never seen anyone else do it. As was stated before tiger couldnt kill phil with his mind in boston 2 years ago, and i think phil is the ONLY guy who wants to play with tiger.

That being said, both guys, on the same day on the same course.....tiger wins 8 out of 10. Anyone else tiger wins 10 out of 10.

i like phil a LOT at this years Master's, and i am looking forward to seeing him in NY in June. he looks great, and is playing very well.

i really do not understand the phil "hate" that seems to infect these boards. Here is a guy who says all the right things, gives his used golf balls to kids, smiles, acts like hes having fun, donates a ton of time and money to charity, and loves his family.....wtf? why so much vitriol for the second best player of his generation?

As a matter of fact, the course will play slightly SHORTER this year at about 7,500 yards. And they've REMOVED a few trees. For example, they removed a couple on the right side of #15.

http://www.pga.com/masters/2009/news/maste...ges_121708.html

Kevin

Great Post, philfan316. I love it when people actually use facts and not hearsay.

I was at my Mother-in-laws this weekend for dinner and while watching the tournament my other relatives-in-law universally remarked how they "Phil is such a choker." To which I asked, "what tournaments has he choked in?"

No one could name any, so I gave them the US Open at winged foot and again asked if they could name any more.

They could not.

Let's try and actually talk about the Masters and not how "Tiger is sooooooooo good and Phil, like, totally sucks...."

I would say Harrington, but then we're talking 3 majors in a row. That's Hogan, Tiger, Jones company.

Ogilvy is a good pick. Particularly becuase he's a steady player who drives the ball well.

It's hard for me not to see Phil winning, but I also always think Sergio has a chance. he'll break through anytime now.

Phil has to be the favorite. I love the blind optimism that Tiger will get his putting fixed before the Masters. I thought his short game was locked in since he couldn't hit any full shots while recovering from the knee surgery?

Augusta will certainly expose any putting weaknesses. Johnny Miller doesn't call it "The Spring Putting Championship" for nothing.

IIRC it took el tigre about 2 years to totally gel after reconstructing his swing with Hank, which is the length of time that Phil has been seeing Butch. Let's see 2 wins already and he is looking like a totally different player with the flatstick. I say he has a better chance at Augusta than Tiger in fact I will go one better and say that Tiger does not take the green jacket in '09 or '10. For the record I am neither a Tiger hater or a Phil lover, I am just ready to see some good golf rivalry.

I am not a huge Tiger fan. But I would not pick against a guy that has won at least 25% of the events he ever entered.

Tiger will be the favorite if he demonstrates any type of form at Bay Hill. Professional gamblers understand it's a matter of how good are you, not how well are you playing. That summarizes the power rating aspect, which is where odds on any sport originate. Tiger's power rating is still significantly higher than Phil's.

I know 2 huge sports bettors in Las Vegas who thrill to bet on Tiger whenever his game appears to be on the downslide. They will take him at even money against anyone. It doesn't sound like anyone would bite at that but I remember some examples, including once several years ago when two friends of mine took two top players for $10,000 apiece, head to head matchups against Tiger. They told me how numbing it was to suddenly have Tiger round into form, while they were wagering against him. One match was a close loss, the other lopsided.

It's the less sophisticated sports bettors who overreact to recent outcomes and occasionally produce false favorites.

Harrington is just as tough as anyone else. According to D. Clarke in golf mag Harrington's focus, discipline and toughness make him the player he is not his swing.

As for Phil, should he and Tiger go toe to toe, it would be fun.

Tiger has won 4 Masters in 12 attempts. That is a 33% win rate or odds of 2-1, and that overlooks the fact that 3 wins came in the first 6 years and only 1 win in the last 6. Saying he is due one would have lost money the last few years.

Lets be generous to Phil and count him from 2000. 2 wins in 9 attempts, or 7-2 odds.

I think Tiger will have the edge going into Augusta, especially if he keeps up his new-found driving accuracy and finds a way to shore up his putting. However, I'm liking Ogilvy - solid as a rock, great short game/putting, HIGH ball flight (especially the long irons), etc...

Harrington, Kim, Woods, Mickelson, and just for fun, McIlroy. That's my 5 against the field.

A good forecast - and in that order too! Get some money on it!

Could Phil be peaking to early???

My Top 5

Ogilvy
Woods
Phil
McIlroy
J M Singh

Boo's taking the whole thing, yep mark my word

I like Rory McIlroy . He's played well in the states so far , I hated to see him fall apart on the weekend at the WGC . Maybe Sergio , Phil and Tiger are always going to be favorites going in but that hasn't worked the past few years .

You beat me to it. In the last five years, Phil has won more Jackets than Tiger. If I'm not mistaken, wasn't Tiger focusing on the Masters leading up to it like everyone says he is now?

Truth is, if he putts like he did at both WGC's this year, he will be challenging the cut like he did a couple years back when he made it on the number. I can hear it now, "he was just focusing on defending at the US Open."

why do people keep throwing kim in the mix? he has not done a thing all year. i woul dbet money that he dosent play on saturday. harrington has never done well at the masters. He would only do well if the weather is terrible. phil seems to typically play well at the masters. so does tiger could be either one.
if i could tell i would guess it would be someone more along the lines of zack johnson or somebody like that oglvey would be a good choice. it is going to come down to who ever is hot with the putter that week.

but kim....no. sergio...no, harrington...2Xno.

I don't exactly disagree with you, it could be a dark horse. Kim seems tired too me, and a long way away from the focus required of this event. It might be beyond Harrington, but he wants this one more than others, so I've read, and believe with his experience and focus, he might get it. Of course, he could mis the cut.

Im a huge Anthony Kim fan but it doesnt seem like he is focusing on winning/getting better thus far this year. He's busy chasing appearance fees around the world.

Harrington was 7th in 2007 and 5th in 2008 so to say that he has never done well at the master is absolutely wrong.

I think he won the par 3 event one year too?

if Tiger wins at bay hill people will forget all about this Phil What's-his-name character. You can bet on that. If Tiger wins at Bay Hill it's a safe bet the golf network won't even mention another player's name period in the weeks leading up to Augusta

as much as i love Phil, how cool would it be if Harrington won...

I would really LIKE to see Harrington go toe to toe with Tiger and come out as the winner. I also hope the Masters has the excitement of old rather than the 'death slog' it has been a couple of times recently. I prefer to see a dramatic charge rather than a determined survival.

Can't wait for the Masters. I have HD this year for the first time!!!

The funny and true thing about this post is that Tiger doesn't even have to win at Bay Hill or even play another event before the Masters and ALL of your predictions will STILL come true. Phil will get about zero respect from most of the media and Golf Channel will be loaded with re-runs of Tiger's wins at The Masters.

I'm not hating, but just calling it like it is.

Kevin

+1

People want to see birdies. Any major should be difficult, but it Even par shouldn't be the winning score. There's just something wrong with that!

I'm with the guys who say, "Kim"? He hasn't shown anything this year. Woods, on the other hand, is at least always a bet to place. Mickelson, well, you never know which Phil will show up; the second round is key in watching Mickelson. I wouldn't lay any money on the guy until no one would take the bet. Harrington? at The Masters? I have to see that. McIlroy: very good, but he's only 19, remember.

Tiger's a bet of some kind. Mickelson is the joker in the deck. Other than that, who knows?

I'd laugh my dinner up if Bubba Watson walked away with that ugly green jacket this year!

Anybody picking Immelman or Johnson at this point in the last two years???

I still stick by Kim. He's not had a great start to 09, but if he gets hot at a big event I think he can close.

Harrington has two top 10's in the last two years. Come on guys, just because he's not American doesn't mean he has to be completely off the radar. And if Augusta is supposed to be a big putting contest, he's got to be one of the best putters, especially in the last two majors.

But anyway...

i respectfully disagree. par use to be considered a good score. i don't like watching regular events where guys go 20-under par. to me that's boring. a major s/b difficult. it should challenge every player in all aspects of his game. the rough should be high, the fairways narrow, and the greens fast. a major shouldn't just involve shot making but a player's mental game as well. i think what makes tiger such a great player in the majors is that 6 inches between his ears.

Yep, I agree with Avatar. I would rather watch a road course race over an oval track race anyday, and I'm not even a racing fan.

The final round of a major doesn't need birdies, it needs players who are defying the odds, hoping that there bogey putt gets them into the playoff on the 72nd hole, and the great ones earning every shot to make winning that much sweeter. Over par, under par, even, the tournament needs drama, period.

I understand what you guys are saying about keeping the majors around par, but Augutsa has always been different.

You want guys to be able to make a few eagles or birdies on the back nine and make a late charge. If you weren' t able to make a late charge, Jack Nicklaus would only have 17 majors.

There is a lot of hate of Phil and Tiger. People can't help themselves...pretty typical human behavior. Both of them are great players and I happen to think both are fine men. Flawed? Yes, but good family men and good human beings nonetheless. Both demonstrate a lot more "character" than a lot of people that throw stones at them.

The winner SHOULD be Els or Goosen.

How many top 3's does Retief Goosen have? FOUR.
How many top 6's does Els have? FIVE.

If a swing like Els and a demeanor like Goosen's can't win a green jacket, then what does it take?

2007 Goosen T2
2006 Goosen T3
2005 Goosen T3
2004 Goosen T13, Els 2nd
2003 Goosen T13, Els T6
2002 Goosen 2nd, Els T5
2001 Els T6
2000 Els 2nd

David Duval did an interview for Golf Channel and was asked for his prediction on the Masters winner. He said Ernie Els. Not a bad pick IMO.

[quote name='creeder06' date='Mar 18 2009, 05:05 PM' post='1563602']
why do people keep throwing kim in the mix? he has not done a thing all year. i woul dbet money that he dosent play on saturday. harrington has never done well at the masters. He would only do well if the weather is terrible. phil seems to typically play well at the masters. so does tiger could be either one.
if i could tell i would guess it would be someone more along the lines of zack johnson or somebody like that oglvey would be a good choice. it is going to come down to who ever is hot with the putter that week.

but kim....no. sergio...no, harrington...2Xno.

/quote]

I keep wondering the same thing. Kim is not a top ten player, has not been in good form and has never come in the top three in a Major. He is a good young player, who may be as good as Kenny Perry some day. In the mean time Kenny has won more money, more events, more top tens, lower scoring average, better record head to head and a higher world ranking then Kim, and is in good form. Heck, Kenny has even gone to the wire in a Major. AK represents potential, but he is not there yet. Heck, Danny Lee has won more professional events then Kim this year. I agree with most of the sentiment on this post that both Tiger and Phil will be around on Sunday this year.