There are a couple of holes on a course that I play regularly where I can reach the green with one of my better drives. However, I know that the chance of my hitting one of my better drives is low. Should I wait for the green to clear or go for it knowing that hitting the green is a low probability shot? Should I consider the likelihood of hitting the proper distance but missing the green due to push or pulling ball? Should I consider the likelihood of hitting someone on the green instead of hitting the green (It's much easier to hit the green than someone on it)?

Suppose we turn the perspective around. Let's say you're on the green of a short par 4 and I'm in the tee box. Obviously, if I had a zero percent chance to hit the the green you would not object if I went ahead and drove the ball. However, suppose I had a 1% chance, would you feel comfortable letting me drive? How about a 5% chance? 25%?

My problem is that I don't want to hold up the pace of play by waiting for the green to clear when I have a small chance of hitting it or hit someone because I hit a low probability shot that happend to work, but I do want to score are low as possible and I know that the odds of me driving the green are low. I've set several personal best records for long drives this year, but for every great drive there are whole bunch of banana slices that go into the woods.

I've considered playing back a tee box (I normally play from the forward men's tees), but I'm a 30+ handicap and my golfing buddy's typical drive is 200-220 yards (he's a 21 handicap!). Thus, I'm not crazy about playing back a tee box, even if it is just for a couple holes.

In case you're wondering if I'm the in the group behind you, don't worry. When I discovered that I could potentially reach the green with my driver, I began laying up by driving with my 3 wood.

IMHO if there is ANY chance that you can reach the green you should wait.

Agree 100%.

Never hit if you can reach the group in front, however small the chance. Even if you miss the green but end up in a bunker or the rough greenside you'll definitely PO people, and rightfully so. It's like the first rule with guns; "Don't point at anything you don't intend to shoot". You answered your own question-if you are concerned with holding things up, hit a lesser club.

Do you drive the green or does the ball roll into the green??? If you have no chance of hurting anybody since the ball is rolling go for it, if you are bouncing the ball into the green, dont hit.

go ahead and tee off...if it rolls up there, just apologogize and say "sorry, I can' t believe I hit it that far"....cuz if you are a 31 hcp, chances arent good....then the group behind you says "look at that idiot waiting for the green to clear!'...then if you dont hit the green they say "nice drive!, I can't believe he waited for the green to clear!"

As a rule of thumb, I play every shot as if I'm gonna hit it my desired distance. If I'm in the situation that you described, I always wait for the green to clear before teeing off. Yes, the chances may be low, but there is still a chance. As you said it, it's etiquette.

I think rolling and carrying is the thing here, if you can carry the ball on the green wait, if you can only roll it on then go for it and yell "FORE" if it looks like it is going to roll on. Nobody is going to be upset about that.

Although I would normally offer the opposite advice, I agree with you in this case. The guy said that realistically his chances are slim, and being a 30 handicap that is understandable. I doubt that the ball would be getting there on the fly, but I would like to understand just what kind of yardage he is talking about when he says it is a "short" par 4. As slow as play is at times, I would certainly hate to come up to the tee and find out the guy waiting for the green to clear is a 30 handicapper with a one in 50 chance or less of getting there.

What's the rush?
I typically won't hit a great shot if any doubt that I might hit it close to anyone ahead ( on the fly or rolled up ).
Do you know the insurance company ( most ) had excluded the golf course coverage in the home owner's policy?
Be nice, because you'd expected others to treat you the same.

It's a good question. I guess it all depends. As a really relaxed player myself I could care less if someone hit the shot of their life and hit the green while I'm on it. If they guy came up and said he didn't mean it, or whatnot- no worries, I truly would not care. There are obviously some d**chebags out there that don't see it that way, but really, get over yourselves! As long as I'm not in any real danger, I'm not going to get angry at anyone on a golf course.

On the other hand, if you think you have a chance of getting there...a REALISTIC chance, then you should obviously wait, it's only like another minute or two of wait-time.

If I am playing with my wife or another novice, I will let them tee-off while the group ahead is still in "range" because they have ZERO percent chance of getting it there, and by the time they hit, the group is gone, and then it's my turn.

Since most Par 4's aren't reachable on the fly to the average golfer, this usually isn't a issue with me. I am a long ball hitter (by most standards) and can easily carry 270 - 280. Usually if there are people waiting for me hit I will just play a 3 wood or long iron and lay up. If the hole is more than 320 yards, I will hit away knowing that only good luck and perfect roll will get the ball to the green - no damage done and everyone always accepts my apology if I do get lucky.

What is an bigger issue to me on the course that I usually play (few greens are drivable) is guys that drive 200-220 and then wait for the Par 5 green that is 280 yards or more away to clear.

Also Agree 100%

I was playing a 240 yd. par 4 last year, it's a very drivable hole over water. I'm on the green putting and I get smacked
in the leg with a golf ball, no FORE or anything. A minute or so later (after the sting wore off) went back to the cart with
golf ball in hand, I tee the ball up and pull out my 503H and hit a line drive stinger back to the tee box ( best shot I
had hit all day) I then drove back to the tee box and made it clear to the young man that if he ever hit into me
again he would look very funny with my 2 iron hanging out of his a**.

So I would say wait, even if there is only a .0001% chance of hitting the green.

If you can hit them dont play. I have been hit twice and its no fun. As Withdrew said, if your playing with short hitters have them hit first to save time, even if its out of sequence/ order etc.

My personal etiquette tells me that if there is ANY chance of my ball coming close to a person in front of me, I don't hit it. I imagine that if I were the person in front and the ball even just came rolling up to me, I'd be kinda mad, despite if it was a once in a lifetime shot from that person.

If you play driver (or another club) on the chance you will reach the green, even if that chance is slim, there is no question about what to do - and that is WAIT. It is irrelevant if the ball is flying or rolling. The same argument applies when making any shot (from tee or fairway) where there is a chance of hitting into someone.

Consider this accepted and expected golf etiquette. There really is no room for opinion here.

I am on the same side as those that said it depends on the shot.

If you can fly it on the green, wait!!!!!!!!!

If the ball is rolling up there go ahead and fire away.

On this note I used to belong to a club where there was one really long (240 yards) par three and a really short (310 yards) par four. Many of the older members would hit driver short of the par three, but on occasion they would roll it up on the green and no one would say a word. In fact at times they would actually cheer.

On the short par four, the guys who could cut the corner and fly it on the green would wait, those that would have to roll it up would hit away.

Keep in mind this is a private club and most knew what each golfers abilities were, so if someone hit a career shot no big deal. If it were the same guy doing it on a regular basis someone would have commented for sure.

i dunno. why are you in such a hurry to hit. if the course is backed up or even playing at a decent rate. you WILL catch up even if you wait for it to clear. esp if everyone's in 4somes.

and yea. waiting for a green to clear, and then catching up after your wedge shot doesnt take that much longer so i say just wait for it clear.

better than ruining someones possibly good day, or making someones crappy day that much worse.

To use your words: Suppose we turn the perspective around

If you are standing on that green and I am onthe tee and I have a 1% chance of driving the hole, do you want to take that risk of being hit in the head with a golf ball hit off of my golf club?

Your answer should tell you how to proceed when you are on the tee.

To quote De Niro in "RONIN"

"If there's any doubt, there's NO doubt."

If you think you can get it there, wait. If you don't, swing away.
Par 3, always wait.

Thanks for the opinions. I'm going to continue with my lesser club+wedge approach if someone's on the green. I want to run the risk of being sued. Besides, the extra practice with the short approach shot is good for my game.

Someone asked how far the distance was. One of holes is 290 yards, but it makes a wide dogleg around a small lake. Aiming straight for the green instead of the center of the fairway shortens the hole considerably (not sure how much).

The other hole is 300 yards, but it's downhill all the way and there are no hazards in front of the green. It doglegs to the right slightly, but if you tee up on the left side of tee box, you get a clear shot at the green.

Someone else asked if I hit the green on the fly or roll it up. My drives roll onto the green. However, I think I have the potential to hit it on the fly. I've set several personal best records for distance this year. In fact, at the begining of the year I was pulling out my driver on these holes without thinking twice about it.