Odds of a 7 index shooting +1, blatant sandbagging? Options

[kekoa]

Played the A flight of the LA City today and when i quickly glanced at the scoreboard a saw a few guys with 7 indexes who shot 73. I understand some guys may have a career day, but I think this is just ridiculous. Guys like me who actually shoot their index fall to the middle of the pack.

[Johnny]

I moved to the whites one day and shot 72.. I'm a 5.6 handicap mostly based off playing the tips (75/138 @ 7100 yards)

[Medicaptain]

Hmmm.......especially in competition.....I HATE sandbaggers...they ruin the game for everyone

I actually see more reverse sandbagging.....a bunch of three HDCP's that cant break 85 in competition.....it gets old....everyone has a bad day but come on...five weeks in a row?

[honketyhank]

The lower my handicap goes, and it is not (yet) in the single digit range, the more I realize that playing any kind of a competitive event based on net scores is, at best, a lottery. But more realistically, there will always be those who somehow, maybe magically, shoot a career best, in the pressure of a tournament. But if it is club event and the same guys always manage to shoot career best scores for the trophy, welllllll ... If they are steadliy improving, OK. But the same guys, shooting the same game? Nahhhhhh.

I don't want a trophy in my study / living room / office / garage / whatever that says "HonketyHank - Low Net". I want one that says "Low Gross", even if it says on the next line "Senior old pharts flight" or some such. I want to play good. Not just better than the scores I entered into the handicap computer.

[Pure745]

what'd you end up shooting? what tees are you playing?

[DFinch]

I shot 72 from the tips in a tournament when I was a 6. It was my first par round. It can happen, it just shouldn't happen very often.

[yoshiod9]

Quick question, for you guys, then. At what handicap should you start hitting from the tips rather than the whites?

[nas1021]

Its pretty much just when you feel comfortable that you should play the tips

[mcmski]

Pope of Slope lists the odds of a 7 shooting 4 under their index as 121:1 so not good, but not super outrageous.

Quick question, for you guys, then. At what handicap should you start hitting from the tips rather than the whites?

Really depends a lot on the course and how you feel about it. At shorter courses I always play from the back tees because I like to hit my driver and generally wouldn't if I was 20 yards closer and couldn't drive the green but could set up a wedge in with my 3h or 3w. I'd rather have a full swing in than a 60 yard pitch...

I've heard a a general rule you should either wait until you can break 80 or take your average 5-iron distance (be honest!), multiply by 36, and choose the tees that most closely match that yardage.

Example: You hit your 5-iron 200 yards. So 200 times 36 equals 7200. Choose the tees closest to 7200 yards or shorter.

[mcmski]

just saw this is another post and it seemed to fit here:

The last Golf Digest Hot List in it had a pretty generalized guide for selecting the slope for the tees you should play based on your handicap. The breakdown is as follows:

Handicap / Slope
Plus / 146+
0-5 / 140-145
6-10 / 135-139
11-15 / 130-134
16-20 / 125-129
21-25 / 120-124
26-30 / 115-119
31-36 / 110-114
37+ / 109 or less

[mjtoal]

Played the A flight of the LA City today and when i quickly glanced at the scoreboard a saw a few guys with 7 indexes who shot 73. I understand some guys may have a career day, but I think this is just ridiculous. Guys like me who actually shoot their index fall to the middle of the pack.

Pretty reasonable. A 7 handicap would shoot better than their handicap about 20-25% of the time, and sometimes a number of shots lower. In the UK system, the course rating is often 1-2 shots below par, so a +1 round may be 4 shots better than handicap. Shooting just at your handicap should rarely contend in a competition, unless weather or playing conditions are rally tough.

I am a 8, and I have shot level par a few times, 6 or 7 shots below my handicap depending on the course.

And if these 7s are young guys who are fast improving,. then it is very possible. The odds of a stable 7 shooting that may be 1%, but a 7 who is a 17 year old kid en route to scratch is a better bet.

This post has been edited by mjtoal: Jun 14 2009, 02:24 AM

[joekelli]

I do not see what the big deal is. Your handicap is just an average. There are days when I shoot par and there are days when I shoot 80+, It all averages out. Just like when I was bowling a lot. There were nights I would bowl 700 series and nights I would bowl a 500 series, my average was 210. I was better in tournaments because I wasnt drinking and I was concentrating more.

I also think that some guys might be better in a tournament situation. If your playing in a league and guys are joking around and having a few laughs, you might not concentrate like you would in a tournament. In a tournament you might take a little more time reading and lining up your putts. In a tournament you might make smarter decisions than you normally would, like laying up instead of going for the green in 2. The guy's handicap might be based on when he rides in a cart and he might play better when he walks. There are a lot of factors in why someone would shoot lower then their hdcp. I would not automaticly assume they were sandbagging.

[mcmski]

your handicap is not supposed to be your average score it is supposed to reflect your scoring potential. That is in part why only your best 10 of your last 20 scores are considered and on a "good day" you should shoot your index. That is the point of the handicap system.

[J13]

This is why people hate handicaps. you'll never really know who is sandbagging and who isn't.

[b_smith07]

I dont know if this is just me or not, but I usually always play better in tournaments than I do in casual rounds. And since I play in less than 7-8 big tournaments a year and play at least 3-4 casual rounds a week ,that in turn go into the handicapping, Its not unusual for me to shoot under my index in a tournament. Its not hard to see why really, the pace of play is slower so I take my time to read putts from different angles, think over every shot more in depth, and practice better course management. During a casual round theres not a lot to lose for me, so I'm more tempted to take higher risk shots than I would in a tournament....therefore my casual scores may be higher which equals a higher index. Also you gotta factor in that in a large tournament like the OP was talking of, most good players will take a week or two off before the tournament to practice, practice, practice; and potentially not turn in as many scores (which means the capability to score better without the higher possibility of the index decreasing). Im not saying everyone that shoots low net scores isnt a sandbagger because thats simply not true, but before your quick accuse someone you gotta think over what I've said.

[Johnny]

Quick question, for you guys, then. At what handicap should you start hitting from the tips rather than the whites?

depends on yardage more then handicap, if the tips are like 7300+ I wont do it... I rotate in some white and blues in to keep it interesting.

[Double True]

I would have to say 50/50 that he is sandbagging. Now it might have been his career day and if so good for him but I have witnessed some of the best of sandbagging in my mens league. The sad part is they only win like 40 bucks for the low net so if they want that they can have that.

Here is my best run in with sandbagging:
My club was playing in a 4 club (meaning 4 golf clubs, your putter being one of them) tournament. Now me being a 12 I shot an 89 which I was pretty happy about. Not super excited but I had no real reason to complain. The winner of said tournament was a 24 handicap that shot an 86. Not only did this person SHATTER his own handicap by 10 strokes, he did so with only 4 clubs in his bag.

Plus you see a lot of guys that when they shoot a good round, they don't post it. Now if that seems to persist a lot bring it up to either your club director or to the USGA. They are sticklers about stuff like that and will not let it go unpunished.

[DaveLeeNC]

You didn't state what the course rating (or secondarily the slope) is and that is crucial for analyzing the question. If the course rating is 73 then this guy just shot about 7 strokes better than his index. According to the USGA this would happen (legitimately) about 1 out of 1200 rounds.

But maybe this was a course (or set of tees on this particular course) with a course rating of 69.5 and slope of 115). In this case the guy just shot a differential closer to 4 (a bit over 3 better than his index). According to the USGA this would happen 1 out of every 51 rounds. This is a HUGE difference.

See http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/unde...deanstable.html

dave

This post has been edited by DaveLeeNC: Jun 14 2009, 08:35 PM

[TM golf guy 182]

I have a buddy that is listed as a 7 from the USGA, but he passed the PAT. He just doesn't give normal rounds near the effort that he does a tournament round. He is willing to take risky shots that he wouldn't if there was something on the line.

[dpark]

Since the OP only provided the most basic info, I am making some assumptions.

7 index -> 8 course handicap
Course rating 72.0

If the player in question shot a 73, net 65, his net handicap differential is -7

According to the chart in the link below, the odds of this guy shooting a 73 is 1200:1, pretty unlikely and most likely a sandbagger, but without more info, its hard to say

http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/unde...deanstable.html

If the course was (relatively) easy and his index converted to a straight course handicap and the course rating was say 69.4 for example, then his net differential was only 3.4 (round down to 3) and then the odds drop to 51:1, which is totally possible.

[Johnny]

Since the OP only provided the most basic info, I am making some assumptions.

7 index -> 8 course handicap
Course rating 72.0

If the player in question shot a 73, net 65, his net handicap differential is -7

According to the chart in the link below, the odds of this guy shooting a 73 is 1200:1, pretty unlikely and most likely a sandbagger, but without more info, its hard to say

http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/unde...deanstable.html

If the course was (relatively) easy and his index converted to a straight course handicap and the course rating was say 69.4 for example, then his net differential was only 3.4 (round down to 3) and then the odds drop to 51:1, which is totally possible.

The OP gave enough info to find that it was played on 2 courses (1 each day)

Course 1 ..70.8/123
Course 2 72.3/123

[Double True]

I have a buddy that is listed as a 7 from the USGA, but he passed the PAT. He just doesn't give normal rounds near the effort that he does a tournament round. He is willing to take risky shots that he wouldn't if there was something on the line.

All the PAT says is that over 36 holes you shoot no greater than 15 over par for that course.

[tpariff]

Handicap events are always subject to this kind of discussion. I find it interesting that nobody complains when a 2 handicap shoots 82. I'm not condoning sandbagging, but it CAN happen where a mid single digit handicapper has a great round.

Kevin