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Golfers have ridiculous expectations

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Golf is supposed to be fun.

Even for the highest level professionals, it is still supposed to be fun.

The biggest enemy of a golfer and his scorecard is not the wrong equipment, horrible swing flaws, slow play or even your kids jumping off the top turnbuckle of the couch and doing a cannonball into your lap (Yes, this happens to me on a daily basis. The game is called “beat up daddy” and my 3- and 4-year-olds love it more than ice cream).

The biggest enemy of the golfer is being ridiculous in his or her expectations. That leads to course management problems that ruin the enjoyment of the game. It’s ok for golfers to have long-term expectations that are as high as they want, but short-term expectations, as in the very next shot, need to be more mundane at every level.

I have a good friend who is a 5 handicap. Smart guy — he went to an Ivy League law school. I once added up his cumulative expectations for every shot and he literally would have shot in the 50s had he lived up to his ridiculous standards.

He’s not alone. Golfers have a warped perception of what level of golf shots produce what scores. All you have to do is check out the PGA Tour stats.

It is safe to say that the average 0 to 15 handicap golfer is worse than the worst player on the Tour by a margin so wide it cannot be measured. The best average approach shot from the fairway to the green is 32 feet, 3 inches. Yes, you read that correctly. As I write this article, the guy on Tour who averages the closest to the pin from the fairway (shots from rough not included) is more than 32 feet. The worst on the Tour is 43 feet, 6 inches.

photo (1)

That means the average approach shot to the green on the Tour is between 31 and 47 feet. Why then do I hear the constant moans and groans when shots are not stoned dead?

The devil’s advocate would say, “Well, Monte, there are a lot of long approaches to the green, as there are 500-yard par 4s and pros go for the green from as long as 300 yards and those numbers are factored in.”

Fine. The best guy on Tour averages over 16 feet from the hole from 125 to 150 yards, a very common yardage for golfers playing the middle tees on par 4s and a yardage most experienced golfers expect to hit close. Again, using the premise that the average golfer is significantly worse than the worst Tour player, the bottom guy averages over 36 feet from the hole from 125 to 150.

photo

So let’s look at this realistically. If the worst guy on the Tour is 36-plus feet from the hole, the run of the mill scratch golfer should be more than satisfied with that distance. And the 5 to 15 handicap should be doing cartwheels. But we all know that’s not the case.

I play with 15-handicaps who are ready to drive their cart into the nearest lake if they so much as hit the ball outside 30 feet on a shot of that length. Exaggeration? Maybe, but not much. Remember, these are stats from the fairway, not the rough, trees or someone’s patio.

Let’s work in even further. From the fairway, there are only 35 players who are currently averaging under 10 feet from the hole on shots of 50 to 75 yards, and many average over 30 feet. It’s a small sample size at this point on the season, but it is still telling.

These stats tell us one thing: We mere mortals should be happy just to hit the ball on the green, which leads me to the next faux pas I see. A solid single digit has a 100-yard shot to a tucked right pin and is taking dead aim. He shoves it 15 feet and short sides himself.

“If I can’t hit the green from 100 yards, I might as well quit,” I’ve heard many say.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that.

My response is he just hit a great shot and has a 15-foot putt from the fringe, or simple chip that is very make-able. The response is still being incredulous about missing the green because it is a blackmark on the stat sheet. So I do this. I drop five balls and offer them $20 to hit all five balls on the green anywhere. The result is often all five balls on the green between 10 and 50 feet with an average around 40. Basically, not much worse than the average shot of a low-end Tour player.

I am definitely not saying you should be this conservative, but be aware of what a good shot actually is. If you are a good player with a good short game, know that shots that miss the green but are still close to the hole are often more damaging to your stats than your score.

YARDAGES

Even with the advent of Flightscope, Trackman and laser range finders, I am still appalled at the horrendous lack of knowledge golfers have about how far they hit the ball. Play any golf course in the world and you will see two things.

  1. Greenside bunkers short of the green that look as if they were the front of a WWI battle.
  2. Nearly untouched bunkers behind the green that only receive traffic from the people who hit it in the front bunkers and decide that picking the ball clean is the best way to hit a sand shot.

Let me give you some advice. The distance you hit an iron is not how far you hit one downhill, downwind, at altitude, when you leaned on one orhit the best shot of your life (and after it landed a coyote picked it up and ran another 50 yards). Seeing as how I have played with many golfers who played 18 consecutive holes without hitting a ball that didn’t land short of the green, this is again not much hyperbole.

“OK, Monte, we get the point, we need to take the average distance we hit our clubs, give it a rest.”

Well, I won’t give it a rest because that is wrong too. It is not the average distance you hit a club, but the distance you hit the ball most often. That sounds like the same thing, but I have found though years of harassing poor, unsuspecting amateurs that the “most often” shot is usually five and sometimes as much as 10 yards shorter than the best shot. But the fear of going over the green chides people into being short all day long. Using the most often approach can result in five or more saved shots from not being short, which is a lot better for your score than the one bogey you might make from the career shot that sails over the green.

I like what the great Jackie Burke said to one of his students when he was pondering a club choice. He asked the unsuspecting young star what he could hit over the green. The student responded, “5-iron.”

Burke then responded, “Well then, wouldn’t that make this a 6?”

There are so many ways to improve your scores if you just use some common sense. The Ivy League lawyer I spoke of earlier, well that kind of on-course behavior runs in the family. His father would attempt flop shots (which he was horrible at) from a place where Phil Mickelson would be hard pressed to get the ball within 30 feet. The results were predictable. He would advance the ball 6 feet in front of him from getting too cute, then the second shot would end up 30 feet, which is where it would have ended up with a normal chip, bump and run 7-iron, foot wedge, topped driver or one of Phil’s gravity defying parachute flops.

The answer to this question is the answer to most every other shot in golf. What shot would have the best cumulative results if you hit it 10 times? It might not be the way Tiger plays it, the way Johnny Miller says is the best way to play it or the way your club champion plays it, but if it’s the way you can do it well most times, it’s the right shot even if your friends laugh at you for putting from 20 yards off the green with a sprinkler in your line.

Now that I have segued to putting, more strokes are lost on putting by people trying to make too many putts. You read the putt, you line up, hit it the right speed and it will go in or it won’t. You have no control over anything but proper speed outside of 3 to 4 feet. Don’t believe me? The best putters on Tour only make two out of five putts from 10 to 15 feet, and many only make one out of five or worse.

My question is: Why are we trying so hard to make long putts? Why do we hit them so hard or and try to steer them on line?

Unless you are a masochist and want to provide hours of entertainment for your friends, dollars for their bankroll and keep the producers of Prozac in business, the next time you play golf try this:

1.  Hit whatever club (using your normal yardages) will end up 5 yards short of the back edge of the green.

2.  Try to hit the ball where your predominate miss won’t miss the green, no mater where the pin is.

3.  Try and hit every putt outside of 5 feet the correct speed and don’t worry about whether it goes in or not.

4.  Be ambivalent about the results of individual shots.

I guarantee your next 20 rounds will lower your handicap.

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Monte Scheinblum is a former World Long Drive Champion and Web.com Tour player. For more insights and details on this article, as well as further instruction from Monte go to rebelliongolf.com

39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. Pingback: Basic Guidelines you need to know about taking up golf - Golfing Time

  2. James g

    Mar 31, 2015 at 11:41 am

    Monte, that is exactly how I was taught to play. My friends laugh when I take an extra club to put the ball on the green except I get the last laugh when they always come up short. There was a saying by an old Tour pro, I can’t remember exactly who, but he said “try to get the ball on the green and let the hole come to you”. Meaning in a round of golf, doesn’t matter how close you are to the hole. Eventually, you will end up closer to the hole than you expected and then you try to make a birdie. In my experience, a lot of the guys I play with kill themselves stalking pins and trying to get it close on every single hole not realizing that par is a good score.

  3. Pingback: A huge reason golfers don’t get better. | Monte Scheinblum.com

  4. bud "flag" zenswing

    Jul 11, 2013 at 4:57 pm

    Good job, Monte. I have been writing about this on my site for years. Especially the part about club selection. In fact, I once held a tournament called the 3 irons challenge. You were permitted to take only a 4 iron, 7 iron, a pitching wedge, and a putter. I can’t tell you how many of the players came up to me after the round and told me it was the best golf they had ever played. Throw out your driver and your “flop” wedge and put up a good score.
    Bud “flag” Zenswing

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  6. Jacob

    May 1, 2013 at 10:18 pm

    Golf is just a game of misses and managing misses. Ben Hogan said it him self, a golfer rarely hits 1 or 2 golf shots the way he wants it. It’s just making the misses manageable.

  7. SumTingWong

    Apr 26, 2013 at 5:42 am

    Thank you for a great article.
    It is a fact that all amateurs hit almost all of their shots shorter than anticipated. Me included. Therefore I started a system where I put a “minus” in the margin of the scorecard for each short shot, and a “plus” for each shot that are long for all shots toward the green and on the green. My goal is to have more “plusses” than “minuses” at the end of a round. If you try it, it really is difficult. If I am long it is almost always less distance from the pin compared to the short shots. Works for me…when I use it.

  8. pablo

    Apr 25, 2013 at 7:41 pm

    Great article. I’ve just finished reading ‘Golf is not a game of perfect’ and ‘Zen Golf’, and this fits right in with the concepts in those reads. Pre-acceptance of not perfect shots, and knowing you’re going to scramble are keys to enjoying golf more. And as someone else mentioned, NOT keeping score occasionally is excellent therapy, I do that when playing with my girlfriend, as you’ll know when you par or birdie and the rest will fade away as you enjoy the day.

  9. Puddin

    Apr 25, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    Great read! I use advice from a Mickelson article years ago in GD for putting. Make a few practice strokes you know will not get it to the hole. Then a few strokes that will put it too far from the hole. Now you have your stroke dialed in for distance. Works 99% of the time to get long putts closer. Easy Peasy yall!

  10. purkjason

    Apr 25, 2013 at 12:27 pm

    I’m glad that my wife and I just push our carts along the course and have a great time regardless of the score, conditions, etc. Golf is nothing more than a game and those who treat it like it’s more than that are really needing to look at themselves in the mirror and ask themselves “What am I truly missing in my life?” I ask you all to play a round just one time without keeping score and just enjoy the time outdoors with friends and family playing this GAME.

  11. Buddy

    Apr 25, 2013 at 8:49 am

    When approaching a green my rule is if the pin is on the front half take the club that will get you to the pin on a normal shot or past the pin with a long hit. If it’s in the back half hit it to the front for a normal shot and pin high for a long hit. It’s most likely to be offline anyway so just getting it at least green high is good enough.

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  13. John Kuczeski

    Apr 24, 2013 at 9:06 pm

    Great feedback and commentary…a wake up call to me and many others!! Enjoy the game!! Thanks!

  14. sgniwder99

    Apr 24, 2013 at 8:34 pm

    Good read. I especially like the bit about Jackie Burke’s quote, because it’s basically the way I’ve taken to choosing clubs for anything outside of a wedge shot (where I’m probably still too often guilty of trying to choose the right “stone dead” club). I have a GPS unit on my bag, and I almost always just look at the distance to the back of the green, and try to hit a club that I will hit to that distance IF I hit a very good shot with it. This has got me hitting more greens–and being within a short chip on mis-hits more often. The only exceptions to this would be if I know there’s trouble long and there’s none short. Then I don’t mind coming up a bit short.

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  16. dqtee

    Apr 24, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    Monte,

    I don’t believe I’ve paired with you before, have I? You shouldn’t write about my game to others like this (although I’ve never have wanted, yet anyway, to drive the cart into the nearest lake). All jesting aside, I’m going to follow your 4 tips religiously henceforth, at least for next 20 rounds (which may take yrs to complete at current rate) and if/when my non-existent handicap were to be lowered (surely I’ll be able to tell if my scores would have been lowered on average), I’m taking you out to lunch next time I’m in SoCal.

  17. Sizzle

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:24 pm

    a great read, Monte. the totally un-realistic stress we part-time, low-handicap players put on our games…. For a part-timer, its all about eliminating the ‘disaster’ shots – the chunked pitch, the skulled wedge, the nasty block off the tee, etc. I think Mike LeBauve put it best when he said “you need to make your short game ‘disaster-proof’ – meaning, if you hit everything just decently, you’d score fine. We all need to quit fantasizing that we’re a couple of buckets of balls from Tour quality ball-striking and stop trying to ride the razor’s edge. Put a decent move on it, go find it, repeat. Stop trippin’ on gram weight of 3 wood shafts when you’re making more bogeys than birdies….there are bigger fish to fry than the gram weight of your 3 wood shaft.

  18. lbj273

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:18 pm

    when factoring the average distance from the pin tour players hit it you also have to realize they aren’t firing at the pin, they are generally hitting to the safest spot on the green that gives them a chance to make the birdie putt and avoid trouble.

  19. Justin

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    This is a great article and I agree with your guarantee but I believe you have the wrong information about 1 putts from 10-15 feet. This is what I found http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.405.html. This has rankings from 1-185 of 1 putts made from 10-15′ with a percentage ranging from 45%-13%

    • Monte S.

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:06 pm

      Justin, you are correct. I used the wrong stat. I used % of 1 putts and not % of putts made. Good call. Those numbers seemed low to me when I posted them.

      Mea Culpa.

      So the best make 2 of 5 and the worst only 1 of 8.

      The same point still stands, as I am sure most would agree

      • Justin

        Apr 24, 2013 at 5:42 pm

        It’s no problem at all. Yeah, it struck me as a really low number too but it is still a great point and a great article.

    • Monte Scheinblum

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:37 pm

      Thanks again for pointing that out. I had that part of the article edited.

  20. Wildman

    Apr 24, 2013 at 12:56 pm

    This article will really help me. I was a gymnast in college where, if I didn’t pull off each stunt with near precision, I could easily break my neck. I think this is the basis on which I’ve been playing golf…expecting perfection on every shot and cussing myself out it’s not. Super dumb. Your words of wisdom backed up with solid statistics has finally reached me. Thanks and lets see if I can lower my expectations on the course.

  21. JK

    Apr 24, 2013 at 11:58 am

    it’s been awhile since i fully agreed with a golfwrx article. this one is great. well done.

  22. Phillip Schmidt III

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:19 am

    Great article Monte!
    All our students at my Academy shall each receive a copy of this…keep it coming.

    Phillip Schmidt III
    Director of Salt Creek Jr. Golf Academy
    Chula Vista, CA

    • Monte Scheinblum

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:13 pm

      Phil, almost made it out to your course for a long drive event, but I qualified in Arizona the day before.

      Great to hear from you. Have to make a trip down there.

  23. Pat

    Apr 24, 2013 at 12:57 am

    That was one of the better articles I have read on this site. Those stats for tour players are actually staggering! Makes me feel great about hitting so many GIRs, and not so bad about 2 putting.

  24. Dan

    Apr 23, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    I think this is all great advice. Hopefully, I can take it to heart and use it to improve my own game. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that on many courses you are penalized more if you go over the green than if you come up short. Actually, at the course I play there are at least 10 greens where you definitely don’t want to go long.

  25. Dave T

    Apr 23, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    Monte,

    Guilty on all counts! Thanks for writing this – hopefully it will help me re-think my expectations.
    I played a lot of tennis when I was younger and when you think about it there is a “miss” on every point – otherwise the points would go on forever. You never hear a tennis player say I have to hit every shot perfectly.

  26. Billy

    Apr 23, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    Fantastic article and some great tips at the end there. Thanks.

  27. Dave

    Apr 23, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    Great advice Monte thanks. For folks who watch a lot of golf on TV, these statistics will certainly come as a surprise. We only ever see the leaders, who are really in control of their game that week. Meanwhile there are plenty of “average” shots being played and putts being missed.

    • Steve

      Apr 25, 2013 at 1:42 pm

      This is so true. They generally just follow a couple players that are playing well and then show highlights from around the course. We see a lot more shots that end up within 15 ft. than ones that end up 30+ ft. away. Obviously it is more fun to watch that, but it does not help with expectations for most.

  28. Vince Donahue

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:38 am

    Fantastic article. This should be published in all of the major golf magazines. Amateurs should play golf for mere enjoyment! If not, why play at all if you are going to leave the course miserable?? The problem with most amateur golfers who are, let us say competitive in their profession tend to bring that intensity to the golf course–big mistake. I used to do that in my thirties but learned slowly over time to realize that I am going to mishit 5 to 10 shots a game in most rounds that I play and, I have to be mature enough to accept that and just enjoy a great walk. My handicap fluctuates between a 12 and a 15-16. I have learned to enjoy the game!!

    • Jacob

      May 1, 2013 at 10:13 pm

      No offence but there are people who play the game and it brings enjoyment and people who get enjoyment out of playing the game well. Being competitive in golf and trying to be the best I can be is a great hobby. If I were to just go out and not and try and better myself every time I play and accept my bad shots then I am someone who just enjoys the game. I have been playing since I was 10. I have been a 3, 6, 10, 12 and 15 handicap. I am currently a 12 due to a 6 year absence from it. Every golfer knows bad shots will happen because golf is a game of misses. It’s just making the misses not horrendous misses and just little misses.

  29. Mark

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:25 am

    I think I need to print out the 4 tips at the end of this article, have them laminated, and attach it to my golf bag.

  30. Kevin

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:21 am

    Well done Monte. Since when does logic and real stats ever persuade anyone though 🙂

  31. Tom

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:11 am

    Excellent article! The title describes me quite accurately. I’m a ~12-15 now. I have taken a couple “career” self imposed time-outs due to frustration and anger regarding my expectations. Will definitely keep this print version in my bag to refer to. Just what the Doctor ordered! Thank you!

  32. Matt

    Apr 23, 2013 at 10:47 am

    Good read. Definitely something a lot of us needed to hear. I might have to bookmark this and read it everyday in hopes of remembering some of it while I’m out on the course.

  33. Philip Nielsen

    Apr 23, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Great read! I have been very interested in course management lately. I haven’t had a chance with all our crazy weather to get out this year but I will definitely be putting some of these suggestions into play.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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