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Opinion & Analysis

Golfers have ridiculous expectations

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Golf is supposed to be fun.

Even for the highest level professionals, it is still supposed to be fun.

The biggest enemy of a golfer and his scorecard is not the wrong equipment, horrible swing flaws, slow play or even your kids jumping off the top turnbuckle of the couch and doing a cannonball into your lap (Yes, this happens to me on a daily basis. The game is called “beat up daddy” and my 3- and 4-year-olds love it more than ice cream).

The biggest enemy of the golfer is being ridiculous in his or her expectations. That leads to course management problems that ruin the enjoyment of the game. It’s ok for golfers to have long-term expectations that are as high as they want, but short-term expectations, as in the very next shot, need to be more mundane at every level.

I have a good friend who is a 5 handicap. Smart guy — he went to an Ivy League law school. I once added up his cumulative expectations for every shot and he literally would have shot in the 50s had he lived up to his ridiculous standards.

He’s not alone. Golfers have a warped perception of what level of golf shots produce what scores. All you have to do is check out the PGA Tour stats.

It is safe to say that the average 0 to 15 handicap golfer is worse than the worst player on the Tour by a margin so wide it cannot be measured. The best average approach shot from the fairway to the green is 32 feet, 3 inches. Yes, you read that correctly. As I write this article, the guy on Tour who averages the closest to the pin from the fairway (shots from rough not included) is more than 32 feet. The worst on the Tour is 43 feet, 6 inches.

photo (1)

That means the average approach shot to the green on the Tour is between 31 and 47 feet. Why then do I hear the constant moans and groans when shots are not stoned dead?

The devil’s advocate would say, “Well, Monte, there are a lot of long approaches to the green, as there are 500-yard par 4s and pros go for the green from as long as 300 yards and those numbers are factored in.”

Fine. The best guy on Tour averages over 16 feet from the hole from 125 to 150 yards, a very common yardage for golfers playing the middle tees on par 4s and a yardage most experienced golfers expect to hit close. Again, using the premise that the average golfer is significantly worse than the worst Tour player, the bottom guy averages over 36 feet from the hole from 125 to 150.

photo

So let’s look at this realistically. If the worst guy on the Tour is 36-plus feet from the hole, the run of the mill scratch golfer should be more than satisfied with that distance. And the 5 to 15 handicap should be doing cartwheels. But we all know that’s not the case.

I play with 15-handicaps who are ready to drive their cart into the nearest lake if they so much as hit the ball outside 30 feet on a shot of that length. Exaggeration? Maybe, but not much. Remember, these are stats from the fairway, not the rough, trees or someone’s patio.

Let’s work in even further. From the fairway, there are only 35 players who are currently averaging under 10 feet from the hole on shots of 50 to 75 yards, and many average over 30 feet. It’s a small sample size at this point on the season, but it is still telling.

These stats tell us one thing: We mere mortals should be happy just to hit the ball on the green, which leads me to the next faux pas I see. A solid single digit has a 100-yard shot to a tucked right pin and is taking dead aim. He shoves it 15 feet and short sides himself.

“If I can’t hit the green from 100 yards, I might as well quit,” I’ve heard many say.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that.

My response is he just hit a great shot and has a 15-foot putt from the fringe, or simple chip that is very make-able. The response is still being incredulous about missing the green because it is a blackmark on the stat sheet. So I do this. I drop five balls and offer them $20 to hit all five balls on the green anywhere. The result is often all five balls on the green between 10 and 50 feet with an average around 40. Basically, not much worse than the average shot of a low-end Tour player.

I am definitely not saying you should be this conservative, but be aware of what a good shot actually is. If you are a good player with a good short game, know that shots that miss the green but are still close to the hole are often more damaging to your stats than your score.

YARDAGES

Even with the advent of Flightscope, Trackman and laser range finders, I am still appalled at the horrendous lack of knowledge golfers have about how far they hit the ball. Play any golf course in the world and you will see two things.

  1. Greenside bunkers short of the green that look as if they were the front of a WWI battle.
  2. Nearly untouched bunkers behind the green that only receive traffic from the people who hit it in the front bunkers and decide that picking the ball clean is the best way to hit a sand shot.

Let me give you some advice. The distance you hit an iron is not how far you hit one downhill, downwind, at altitude, when you leaned on one orhit the best shot of your life (and after it landed a coyote picked it up and ran another 50 yards). Seeing as how I have played with many golfers who played 18 consecutive holes without hitting a ball that didn’t land short of the green, this is again not much hyperbole.

“OK, Monte, we get the point, we need to take the average distance we hit our clubs, give it a rest.”

Well, I won’t give it a rest because that is wrong too. It is not the average distance you hit a club, but the distance you hit the ball most often. That sounds like the same thing, but I have found though years of harassing poor, unsuspecting amateurs that the “most often” shot is usually five and sometimes as much as 10 yards shorter than the best shot. But the fear of going over the green chides people into being short all day long. Using the most often approach can result in five or more saved shots from not being short, which is a lot better for your score than the one bogey you might make from the career shot that sails over the green.

I like what the great Jackie Burke said to one of his students when he was pondering a club choice. He asked the unsuspecting young star what he could hit over the green. The student responded, “5-iron.”

Burke then responded, “Well then, wouldn’t that make this a 6?”

There are so many ways to improve your scores if you just use some common sense. The Ivy League lawyer I spoke of earlier, well that kind of on-course behavior runs in the family. His father would attempt flop shots (which he was horrible at) from a place where Phil Mickelson would be hard pressed to get the ball within 30 feet. The results were predictable. He would advance the ball 6 feet in front of him from getting too cute, then the second shot would end up 30 feet, which is where it would have ended up with a normal chip, bump and run 7-iron, foot wedge, topped driver or one of Phil’s gravity defying parachute flops.

The answer to this question is the answer to most every other shot in golf. What shot would have the best cumulative results if you hit it 10 times? It might not be the way Tiger plays it, the way Johnny Miller says is the best way to play it or the way your club champion plays it, but if it’s the way you can do it well most times, it’s the right shot even if your friends laugh at you for putting from 20 yards off the green with a sprinkler in your line.

Now that I have segued to putting, more strokes are lost on putting by people trying to make too many putts. You read the putt, you line up, hit it the right speed and it will go in or it won’t. You have no control over anything but proper speed outside of 3 to 4 feet. Don’t believe me? The best putters on Tour only make two out of five putts from 10 to 15 feet, and many only make one out of five or worse.

My question is: Why are we trying so hard to make long putts? Why do we hit them so hard or and try to steer them on line?

Unless you are a masochist and want to provide hours of entertainment for your friends, dollars for their bankroll and keep the producers of Prozac in business, the next time you play golf try this:

1.  Hit whatever club (using your normal yardages) will end up 5 yards short of the back edge of the green.

2.  Try to hit the ball where your predominate miss won’t miss the green, no mater where the pin is.

3.  Try and hit every putt outside of 5 feet the correct speed and don’t worry about whether it goes in or not.

4.  Be ambivalent about the results of individual shots.

I guarantee your next 20 rounds will lower your handicap.

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Monte Scheinblum is a former World Long Drive Champion and Web.com Tour player. For more insights and details on this article, as well as further instruction from Monte go to rebelliongolf.com

39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. Pingback: Basic Guidelines you need to know about taking up golf - Golfing Time

  2. James g

    Mar 31, 2015 at 11:41 am

    Monte, that is exactly how I was taught to play. My friends laugh when I take an extra club to put the ball on the green except I get the last laugh when they always come up short. There was a saying by an old Tour pro, I can’t remember exactly who, but he said “try to get the ball on the green and let the hole come to you”. Meaning in a round of golf, doesn’t matter how close you are to the hole. Eventually, you will end up closer to the hole than you expected and then you try to make a birdie. In my experience, a lot of the guys I play with kill themselves stalking pins and trying to get it close on every single hole not realizing that par is a good score.

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  4. bud "flag" zenswing

    Jul 11, 2013 at 4:57 pm

    Good job, Monte. I have been writing about this on my site for years. Especially the part about club selection. In fact, I once held a tournament called the 3 irons challenge. You were permitted to take only a 4 iron, 7 iron, a pitching wedge, and a putter. I can’t tell you how many of the players came up to me after the round and told me it was the best golf they had ever played. Throw out your driver and your “flop” wedge and put up a good score.
    Bud “flag” Zenswing

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  6. Jacob

    May 1, 2013 at 10:18 pm

    Golf is just a game of misses and managing misses. Ben Hogan said it him self, a golfer rarely hits 1 or 2 golf shots the way he wants it. It’s just making the misses manageable.

  7. SumTingWong

    Apr 26, 2013 at 5:42 am

    Thank you for a great article.
    It is a fact that all amateurs hit almost all of their shots shorter than anticipated. Me included. Therefore I started a system where I put a “minus” in the margin of the scorecard for each short shot, and a “plus” for each shot that are long for all shots toward the green and on the green. My goal is to have more “plusses” than “minuses” at the end of a round. If you try it, it really is difficult. If I am long it is almost always less distance from the pin compared to the short shots. Works for me…when I use it.

  8. pablo

    Apr 25, 2013 at 7:41 pm

    Great article. I’ve just finished reading ‘Golf is not a game of perfect’ and ‘Zen Golf’, and this fits right in with the concepts in those reads. Pre-acceptance of not perfect shots, and knowing you’re going to scramble are keys to enjoying golf more. And as someone else mentioned, NOT keeping score occasionally is excellent therapy, I do that when playing with my girlfriend, as you’ll know when you par or birdie and the rest will fade away as you enjoy the day.

  9. Puddin

    Apr 25, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    Great read! I use advice from a Mickelson article years ago in GD for putting. Make a few practice strokes you know will not get it to the hole. Then a few strokes that will put it too far from the hole. Now you have your stroke dialed in for distance. Works 99% of the time to get long putts closer. Easy Peasy yall!

  10. purkjason

    Apr 25, 2013 at 12:27 pm

    I’m glad that my wife and I just push our carts along the course and have a great time regardless of the score, conditions, etc. Golf is nothing more than a game and those who treat it like it’s more than that are really needing to look at themselves in the mirror and ask themselves “What am I truly missing in my life?” I ask you all to play a round just one time without keeping score and just enjoy the time outdoors with friends and family playing this GAME.

  11. Buddy

    Apr 25, 2013 at 8:49 am

    When approaching a green my rule is if the pin is on the front half take the club that will get you to the pin on a normal shot or past the pin with a long hit. If it’s in the back half hit it to the front for a normal shot and pin high for a long hit. It’s most likely to be offline anyway so just getting it at least green high is good enough.

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  13. John Kuczeski

    Apr 24, 2013 at 9:06 pm

    Great feedback and commentary…a wake up call to me and many others!! Enjoy the game!! Thanks!

  14. sgniwder99

    Apr 24, 2013 at 8:34 pm

    Good read. I especially like the bit about Jackie Burke’s quote, because it’s basically the way I’ve taken to choosing clubs for anything outside of a wedge shot (where I’m probably still too often guilty of trying to choose the right “stone dead” club). I have a GPS unit on my bag, and I almost always just look at the distance to the back of the green, and try to hit a club that I will hit to that distance IF I hit a very good shot with it. This has got me hitting more greens–and being within a short chip on mis-hits more often. The only exceptions to this would be if I know there’s trouble long and there’s none short. Then I don’t mind coming up a bit short.

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  16. dqtee

    Apr 24, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    Monte,

    I don’t believe I’ve paired with you before, have I? You shouldn’t write about my game to others like this (although I’ve never have wanted, yet anyway, to drive the cart into the nearest lake). All jesting aside, I’m going to follow your 4 tips religiously henceforth, at least for next 20 rounds (which may take yrs to complete at current rate) and if/when my non-existent handicap were to be lowered (surely I’ll be able to tell if my scores would have been lowered on average), I’m taking you out to lunch next time I’m in SoCal.

  17. Sizzle

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:24 pm

    a great read, Monte. the totally un-realistic stress we part-time, low-handicap players put on our games…. For a part-timer, its all about eliminating the ‘disaster’ shots – the chunked pitch, the skulled wedge, the nasty block off the tee, etc. I think Mike LeBauve put it best when he said “you need to make your short game ‘disaster-proof’ – meaning, if you hit everything just decently, you’d score fine. We all need to quit fantasizing that we’re a couple of buckets of balls from Tour quality ball-striking and stop trying to ride the razor’s edge. Put a decent move on it, go find it, repeat. Stop trippin’ on gram weight of 3 wood shafts when you’re making more bogeys than birdies….there are bigger fish to fry than the gram weight of your 3 wood shaft.

  18. lbj273

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:18 pm

    when factoring the average distance from the pin tour players hit it you also have to realize they aren’t firing at the pin, they are generally hitting to the safest spot on the green that gives them a chance to make the birdie putt and avoid trouble.

  19. Justin

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    This is a great article and I agree with your guarantee but I believe you have the wrong information about 1 putts from 10-15 feet. This is what I found http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.405.html. This has rankings from 1-185 of 1 putts made from 10-15′ with a percentage ranging from 45%-13%

    • Monte S.

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:06 pm

      Justin, you are correct. I used the wrong stat. I used % of 1 putts and not % of putts made. Good call. Those numbers seemed low to me when I posted them.

      Mea Culpa.

      So the best make 2 of 5 and the worst only 1 of 8.

      The same point still stands, as I am sure most would agree

      • Justin

        Apr 24, 2013 at 5:42 pm

        It’s no problem at all. Yeah, it struck me as a really low number too but it is still a great point and a great article.

    • Monte Scheinblum

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:37 pm

      Thanks again for pointing that out. I had that part of the article edited.

  20. Wildman

    Apr 24, 2013 at 12:56 pm

    This article will really help me. I was a gymnast in college where, if I didn’t pull off each stunt with near precision, I could easily break my neck. I think this is the basis on which I’ve been playing golf…expecting perfection on every shot and cussing myself out it’s not. Super dumb. Your words of wisdom backed up with solid statistics has finally reached me. Thanks and lets see if I can lower my expectations on the course.

  21. JK

    Apr 24, 2013 at 11:58 am

    it’s been awhile since i fully agreed with a golfwrx article. this one is great. well done.

  22. Phillip Schmidt III

    Apr 24, 2013 at 1:19 am

    Great article Monte!
    All our students at my Academy shall each receive a copy of this…keep it coming.

    Phillip Schmidt III
    Director of Salt Creek Jr. Golf Academy
    Chula Vista, CA

    • Monte Scheinblum

      Apr 24, 2013 at 2:13 pm

      Phil, almost made it out to your course for a long drive event, but I qualified in Arizona the day before.

      Great to hear from you. Have to make a trip down there.

  23. Pat

    Apr 24, 2013 at 12:57 am

    That was one of the better articles I have read on this site. Those stats for tour players are actually staggering! Makes me feel great about hitting so many GIRs, and not so bad about 2 putting.

  24. Dan

    Apr 23, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    I think this is all great advice. Hopefully, I can take it to heart and use it to improve my own game. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that on many courses you are penalized more if you go over the green than if you come up short. Actually, at the course I play there are at least 10 greens where you definitely don’t want to go long.

  25. Dave T

    Apr 23, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    Monte,

    Guilty on all counts! Thanks for writing this – hopefully it will help me re-think my expectations.
    I played a lot of tennis when I was younger and when you think about it there is a “miss” on every point – otherwise the points would go on forever. You never hear a tennis player say I have to hit every shot perfectly.

  26. Billy

    Apr 23, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    Fantastic article and some great tips at the end there. Thanks.

  27. Dave

    Apr 23, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    Great advice Monte thanks. For folks who watch a lot of golf on TV, these statistics will certainly come as a surprise. We only ever see the leaders, who are really in control of their game that week. Meanwhile there are plenty of “average” shots being played and putts being missed.

    • Steve

      Apr 25, 2013 at 1:42 pm

      This is so true. They generally just follow a couple players that are playing well and then show highlights from around the course. We see a lot more shots that end up within 15 ft. than ones that end up 30+ ft. away. Obviously it is more fun to watch that, but it does not help with expectations for most.

  28. Vince Donahue

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:38 am

    Fantastic article. This should be published in all of the major golf magazines. Amateurs should play golf for mere enjoyment! If not, why play at all if you are going to leave the course miserable?? The problem with most amateur golfers who are, let us say competitive in their profession tend to bring that intensity to the golf course–big mistake. I used to do that in my thirties but learned slowly over time to realize that I am going to mishit 5 to 10 shots a game in most rounds that I play and, I have to be mature enough to accept that and just enjoy a great walk. My handicap fluctuates between a 12 and a 15-16. I have learned to enjoy the game!!

    • Jacob

      May 1, 2013 at 10:13 pm

      No offence but there are people who play the game and it brings enjoyment and people who get enjoyment out of playing the game well. Being competitive in golf and trying to be the best I can be is a great hobby. If I were to just go out and not and try and better myself every time I play and accept my bad shots then I am someone who just enjoys the game. I have been playing since I was 10. I have been a 3, 6, 10, 12 and 15 handicap. I am currently a 12 due to a 6 year absence from it. Every golfer knows bad shots will happen because golf is a game of misses. It’s just making the misses not horrendous misses and just little misses.

  29. Mark

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:25 am

    I think I need to print out the 4 tips at the end of this article, have them laminated, and attach it to my golf bag.

  30. Kevin

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:21 am

    Well done Monte. Since when does logic and real stats ever persuade anyone though 🙂

  31. Tom

    Apr 23, 2013 at 11:11 am

    Excellent article! The title describes me quite accurately. I’m a ~12-15 now. I have taken a couple “career” self imposed time-outs due to frustration and anger regarding my expectations. Will definitely keep this print version in my bag to refer to. Just what the Doctor ordered! Thank you!

  32. Matt

    Apr 23, 2013 at 10:47 am

    Good read. Definitely something a lot of us needed to hear. I might have to bookmark this and read it everyday in hopes of remembering some of it while I’m out on the course.

  33. Philip Nielsen

    Apr 23, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Great read! I have been very interested in course management lately. I haven’t had a chance with all our crazy weather to get out this year but I will definitely be putting some of these suggestions into play.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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