Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Why I root for Sergio

Published

on

I know Sergio Garcia.

Well, OK maybe not really. I don’t literally know Sergio Garcia, as I am Canadian and work in an office and he is Spanish and plays on the PGA Tour, but humor me for a second. I know what it feels like to be Sergio, at least Sergio minus the millions of dollars, which is probably not as significant a difference as we assume.

I know what it feels like to not achieve what you thought you’d achieve, to feel like you missed out on things, to go through tough moments in your life and have it affect how you act. I know what it feels like to do or say something stupid in the heat of the moment and instantly regret it. Yes, I may not have millions of dollars to comfort me but I also don’t have millions of people criticizing me or taking pleasure in my failures either. I understand, or at least try to understand, Sergio.

I watch him and can’t help but feel how close he has come to being something completely different, to being the champion we all thought he’d be when he skipped up the fairway at Medinah, to being the overall athlete we crave as fans, who wins and then tells us how they really feel about it, or about everything really. Only it hasn’t happened yet, and with each passing year I wonder if it will ever happen. I also wonder what it would change if it did, if a major title would transform him from the guy into the humble, honest superstar I believe he is. I guess the difference with me is I’m not willing to wait; I cheer for him now. And so should you.

To understand Sergio now, you have to go back to the beginning. In simple physics terms, no one can fall this far without starting so high, and that is true in his case. Sergio had a ton of promise. As a junior, he set a record as the youngest player ever to make the cut in a European Tour event (since broken), he turned pro after being the low amateur at the 1999 Masters, and then won his first pro tournament in only his sixth start at the 1999 Irish Open. Of course that was only wetting our appetite for his epic duel with Tiger Woods at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah, a tournament that has become a staple of Golf Channel classics, and which featured one of the greatest shots ever hit in major championship golf. Sports Illustrated wrote an article about Woods’ win that August, in which it said Tiger and Sergio had the star quality of Newman and Redford, and that the weekend launched a rivalry that would take golf into a new era.

Garcia couldn’t be praised enough, whether it was for his “mischievous glare” he gave Tiger on No. 13, or for his delightful scissor kick down the No. 16 fairway. He was the swashbuckling Spaniard on what he would afterwards call “the best day of my life.” He was only 19 years old and already a superstar, and already having picked up his first second-place finish in a major, a stat that would come to define him

It seems like a long time ago that Sergio was known for his exuberance. Sergio gave a great interview after Medinah, about his glare, about his desire to play Tiger in that year’s Ryder cup. He did humerus ads for Michelob beer where he spoofed James Bond, or caroused with women next to pools. He wasn’t a traditional superstar, he was honest and refreshing. This was not a guy who answered questions with “It is what it is.” This was a guy who really let you know how he felt. We appreciated that when things were going well. We like our pros to be honest when things are going well.

Things stopped being perfect in 2002, probably the first time Sergio faced real backlash. By then he had won eight global tournaments and had certainly not been too much of a disappointment, but he arrived at Bethpage Black with no majors and a bit of a nasty habit of re-gripping the club. In perhaps a bit of irony, we praised New Yorkers for being tough but crushed Sergio for responding with a middle finger salute to the gallery when fans heckled him. Should we have congratulated Sergio for flipping the bird to a group of wiseguy New Yorkers who were counting Sergio’s regrips? No, I suppose not.

Garcia playing at Bethpage Black in the 2012 at The Barclays.

But why was he targeted? Sergio spent most of Sunday in contention and ended up finishing fourth. This was the same guy who three years earlier had thrilled us trying to chase down Tiger at Medinah, and here he was again trying to chase down the same man in the Big Apple. Had fans turned on him for re-gripping his club? For responding with a rude gesture to fans calling him “waggle boy” and who were also apparently taking potshots at his then-girlfriend Martina Hingis?

Garcia probably didn’t help his case by also suggesting that the Saturday conditions favored Woods and the tournament likely would have postponed play if their tee times had been reversed. Yet, it certainly wasn’t the first time Tiger had been accused of getting breaks, but it wasn’t usually from players. It’s OK for fans to say it, but not for Garcia. In any regard, Garcia apologized and even left a personalized note in Woods’ locker regarding his comments. Is this really that unforgivable? To respond to rude gestures with rude gestures of your own? To complain that co-workers have benefited from more favorable circumstances? Nevertheless, Bethpage 2002 is still not regarded as Sergio’s finest hour.

His reputation somewhat tarnished, Sergio went on to win five more tournaments in the next five years. He now had 16 global victories while still in only his mid 20s, but majors still eluded him. Between 2002 and 2007, Garcia would reach the pinnacle of what I’ll call the dreaded “Phil Mickelson Status” of being the unanimous best player without a major. In that span, he had 11 top 10s in majors including multiple top 10s in every individual major event. His name popped up on leaderboards like a whack-a-mole. But with Mickelson winning the Masters in 2004 (Garcia finished T4 that year), the press had a new target to torment. His spitting incident in March 2007 gave the media an opportunity to pile up on Sergio anew about his attitude and his failure to play up to our expectations.

It’s tough to defend a man spitting in the cup, which Sergio did at Doral in 2007, but the act and its aftermath was vintage Garcia. He fessed up to it immediately, and then awkwardly (and somewhat comically) described to Jimmy Roberts how the spit went in the middle of the cup, fell through and posed no immediate threat to ensuing golfers. He then chided a reporter the following day for questioning him on it again, asking him if he was “disappointed he didn’t do it again today.” But blood was in the water again, and several publications used the incident to talk about how disappointing his career had been, how childish he could act, and how he just wasn’t a winner on par with Tiger Woods, like we expected him to be in 1999. It’s hard to imagine this not bothering someone, not weighing on him every time he stepped out on the course, especially someone we knew to be fairly emotional. Phil Mickelson would later admit winning a major was important to him all along, certainly it must have been for Sergio as well.

Garcia at the PGA Championship in 2008, where he finished second to Padraig Harrington.

The 2007 Open Championship and 2008 PGA Championship were probably the straws that broke the camel’s back so to speak. Even after coming so close before, these were major tournaments that Sergio really should have won. He led both in the final round, and in 2007 in particular, looked dominant the first three rounds while building up a big lead. Even despite giving it up on the final day, he still had a makeable putt for the win, and to this day every time I watch that putt it still looks like it’s going in.

At the 2008 PGA Championship, he battled hard again with Padraig Harrington on Sunday at Oakland Hills before a shot into the water at No. 16 helped seal yet another second-place finish. Coming so close and still failing after so many years of pressure, to be one or two shots away from finally having people stop wondering about his mental fortitude, about whether he was capable of winning a major, seemed to send Sergio into a tailspin. Well, arguably that and his much publicized breakup with Greg Norman’s daughter, Morgan. Garcia would fall all the way down the rankings to No. 78, after being as high as second only a year earlier. He would miss the Ryder Cup for the first time in his career in 2010, a year in which he struggled with his emotions (arguably reaching that apex when he broke down into tears during the Madrid Masters) and simply in the end deciding to take time off golf.

As you would expect by now, Sergio dealt with this as he often did, with brutal honesty. He would give interviews where he became one of the only pro athletes I can remember openly talking about how hurt feelings over a relationship contributed to his poor play. He laid it all out there over and over to any reporter who wanted to ask. He routinely talked about not being happy on the course and how that affected his play. He talked about his breakup with Morgan Norman. Say what you want about that man, but again he never answers anything with “It is what it is.”

Fast forward to 2012, and Sergio has been back for two years. He has won two more events bringing his professional wins total to 24, including 18 on the PGA and European Tours. There is no one younger than him on either pro tour that has more wins then his eight (Tour) and 10 (Euro). It feels like it’s been a long ride to get here, but Sergio is only 33, and despite his past, he said he had no regrets.

Garcia did a gem of an interview with David Feherty in 2012 for the Golf Channel, saying essentially that, but also admitting that maybe he’d be better off if there was a bit of a break between the on-course action and having to give interviews. He seems pretty aware that he said dumb things in the heat of the moment, and hinted to realizing later how foolish he could look to saying some things. He also said that he tried to remember that he was just a golfer, just a guy with a gift of talent but who was no better nor different than the average fan.

Garcia at the 2012 Ryder Cup with Rory McIlroy.

Garcia at the 2012 Ryder Cup with Rory McIlroy.

“I think if we all thought like this the world would be a better place,” he said to David Feherty.

I took from his comments to mean that it’s really important for him to just be a good guy.

So I try to think of Sergio as a regular guy, like myself. Maybe we all should. Maybe an honest and open guy is always going to struggle in the spotlight but is that such a bad thing? Why do some people enjoy rooting against someone who time and time again is accountable, who lays it out there and is vulnerable? How can we condemn someone for saying things in the heat of the moment when we all do that? Who among us has never thrown a club, spoke ill of a coworker, responded to bullying with an obscene gesture or comment? Let them cast the first stone, but I will not do it.

When I look at Garcia, I see a guy who is fallible, out on Tour struggling to become what we expect him to be. I see fans criticizing the guy because he doesn’t fit their view of what they think they’d be like in his place. Maybe instead of spoofing James Bond in a commercial, he should’ve impersonated Superman, capable of performing acts we can’t fathom on the golf course, but unable to shake being the mortal Clark Kent off it. I for one like that about Garcia, and hope others will start appreciating it too, because there aren’t many who let us see that side to them.

And that brings us back to where we are. Sergio Garcia at 33 with the Masters around the corner. He sits locked at those 18 major Tour wins and 17 top 10s in majors, facing the downswing of his career which may culminate in him being labelled a whining disappointment.

There is still hope for Garcia. Just a little under a decade ago, Mickelson entered April 2004 in virtually the same position.

“Phil the Thrill” came into that Masters with 22 Tour wins and 16 top 10s in majors at the age 33. He had a lot of the same demons and a similar volume of detractors. That must seem like a long time ago for Phil.

What then, will we say about Garcia in 2023? Will he win his majors? If so what will fans make of it? Will winning make his human side more tolerable or more heavily scrutinized? I can hardly imagine Garcia himself will change, knowing what we do. And that is what makes the coming years fascinating for me. He won’t change, but will him winning change fans?

As we’ve learned already with Garcia, anything is possible. And I will be rooting for him all the way, because I believe sometimes the good guys should finish first.

Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Jeff Singer was born and still resides in Montreal, Canada. Though it is a passion for him today, he wasn't a golfer until fairly recently in life. In his younger years Jeff played collegiate basketball and football and grew up hoping to play the latter professionally. Upon joining the workforce, Jeff picked up golf and currently plays at a private course in the Montreal area while working in marketing. He has been a member of GolfWRX since 2008

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Sergio fan

    Apr 10, 2017 at 1:04 am

    Finally!

  2. Willy Wonka

    Apr 13, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    I don’t believe in negative comments, but I will never like Sergio as a player. Off the course he may be a great guy, but I will never understand why when people are waiting in anticipation for a tantrum, you can’t control yourself, and you do it again. When he was fresh to the tour, and young he smiled and played the game and didn’t seem as what now looks to be taking this game for granted as if it owes him something. I WAS a fan of Sergio, and had high hopes for him, but I now don’t give him any sympathy. I would not want my kids to look at his ON COURSE antics as a role model player. Not everyone is perfect, any many other overpaid athletes have issues as well. But in MY OPINION, I just can’t stand behind Sergio nor care if he ever wins anything. If anything he would have one a major by now if the golf gods felt he deserved it. His game is great, swing is one of the best, but just can’t get past the attitude, facial expressions (can’t ever just smile and walk away) or throwing clubs, and beating a bunker to death with a lob wedge. Be as sympathetic as you want for him, but I no longer look at him the same way I did when he was an aspiring player who had the future at his fingertips, but let what’s between his ears get the best of him.

  3. Mike

    Apr 13, 2013 at 8:26 am

    Great article! Feel the same about Sergio. Although there are times I get frustrated with his windmill dueling, he is fresh, honest, loyal to hometown causes (finances a soccer team, etc…) and a great interview. Today’s round will be key for him. I’d love to see a green jacket on him but really fell Merion is his best bet. C’mon Sergio, do it for the us, the faithful!

  4. Joe

    Apr 12, 2013 at 10:37 pm

    Amazing article!!!! I really feel for this guy!! I want home to win a major so bad as I really feel it will change everything for him!!!

  5. Ken

    Apr 11, 2013 at 11:03 pm

    Well after the first round he’s in the lead. Thats 1 round down and three more to go. I hope he can keep it all together for those 3 rounds

  6. Willam Long

    Apr 9, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    Wow. Well done. I have had similar feelings about Sergio for years, believing each year that the best was yet to come. I continue to hope that the maturity he has sometimes lacked in his life outside the ropes held him back inside the ropes, and when that maturity came, it would, like a tipping point, propel his professional accomplishments to the highest level that we all expected he would achieve.

  7. Troy Vayanos

    Apr 8, 2013 at 5:41 pm

    Sergio is one of those players that was always chasing Tiger in the early part of the century. I think because of that everyone wants to see him finally win a big one at some stage of his career.

  8. John Wunder

    Apr 8, 2013 at 5:36 pm

    What an awesome read! Well done sir!

    I still root hard for Sergio, he’s a heart on his sleeve kind of player and in my opinion that is the most compelling golf to watch.

  9. Kevin

    Apr 8, 2013 at 4:41 pm

    I don’t see how anybody can pull for such a horrible loser. Sure we all hate to lose, but that is not justification for unclassy, unsportsmanship. I hope he never wins another match, ESPECIALLY the Masters.

  10. jj

    Apr 8, 2013 at 12:33 pm

    Great article. I completely agree with the author. I’ve always been a big Sergio fan and although I’ve been upset with how he’s dealt with certain things over his career – I feel the same way about my behavior on the course. It’s refreshing to have someone that’s honest and reacts how I would react. I can fully understand how he feels, and personally can’t blame him for acting the way he does sometimes, outside of the fact that he is a professional and role model. With that being said, is it really that bad for children to see that professional atheletes make mistakes and aren’t perfect, just as we are?

  11. Ken

    Apr 8, 2013 at 10:00 am

    Great artcle about Sergio. Like yourself I find myself still picturing Sergio running down the fairway doing his scissor kick. A great moment followed by an equally great shot. Its unfortunate that possibly other people’s expectations will define his career but I will always root for Sergio and with some of his past indiscretions (whining and spitting and pouting) it just makes him more human and in the end more likeable. I hope that the Golf Gods look favourably upon him at the Masters this year and he gets to put on the Green Jacket and exorcise those demons. Maybe one Major will lead to multiple ones like Phil, one can only hope and cheer on his fighting spirit

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 9
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK3

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

Published

on

As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
Your Reaction?
  • 2
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

Published

on

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 30
  • LEGIT10
  • WOW4
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending