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Read about Justin Rose’s putting coach, David Orr

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In and of itself, the structure is unremarkable.

The dimensions of the building are of smallish proportion and the concrete block is in need of pressure washed scrutiny; at the base of the front awning, the numerals of the address plate hang in a casual state of limbo.

But as with most things, the exterior counts for little; for it is inside, just a step over the threshold, where some of the game’s finest players are redefining their approach to putting.

Scrawled in varying degrees of penmanship, and occupying a corner section of David Orr’s Buies Creek, N.C., putting studio, are the signatures of some of the world’s most prominent touring professionals.

More so than a novelty, they diagram the current needle position of a career arc remarkably polished, yet completely unfinished.

Rose. Molinari. Castro. Wi. Cheyenne Woods. A global consortium, if you will — one that stretches from North Carolina to Asia, and all points in between.

The wall is a unique tableau — only full-field entrants in golf’s major championships and those exempt on worldwide professional tours may leave their mark — and is the constellation matrix of Orr’s career in the game of golf. It represents 23 years of diligent research, practical application and sustained personal relationships.

He clearly laments the facility’s untidy appearance, but his students prefer it this way. “They really love it,” he explains. “I’ve been told not to change a thing.”

And whether by Gulfstream V or Ford Taurus, his students arrive to stand their post in Orr’s lifelong battle against, in his words, “being average.”

If the modern game is synonymous with cozy lifestyles, posh settings and uncommon perks, Orr’s sanctuary represents its raw antithesis. Amidst a stockade of old putter models and diagnostic tools, commitment is reaffirmed. Important decisions are made. The finite, despite his background in technical analysis, is communicated in plain language.

There are periodic notions to alter its condition, sure; but he simply does not enjoy the time required by such a task.

Class, it seems, is always in session.

David Orr at his Buies Creek, N.C., putting studio

It’s 2 p.m., and a small group ambles into the studio, each dressed in the familiar patterns of a Tour player. Ranging in age from 18 to 21, they are present to discuss their individual progress against the bar of the PGA’s playing ability test.

If brevity is indeed the soul of wit, then hard data is David Orr’s deoxyribonucleic imprint.

“Is 18 inches past the hole a speed?” he asks. “No. It’s a distance. And what would make it an actual speed?”

His students, neither lost nor disengaged, ponder the question. And while their individual opinions vary, they reach the desired common ground with assistance from Orr’s guiding hand.

“It’s feet per second,” he explains, “so what’s in the denominator? Time. That’s break. That’s touch. Curve is the roll time.”

His point is ultimately quite simple — one’s level of awareness, with specific regard to personal space, must be developed in order to construct a functional cache of putting skills.

“Here’s what the golfer doesn’t realize. Let’s say we had a 10-foot putt, zero point zero slope. No break, no nothing,” he explains. “One degree open is right edge. One degree closed is left edge. Now let’s add a 2 percent slope, putting at an angle — what just happened to the capture width of the hole? The cone just shrinks.”

For lack of a more sophisticated phrase, it’s mad science.

“No. It’s measurement,” he says. “There’s a big difference in being technical and being accurate. I disagree that great putters are born. I think great putters learn their tendencies and use them; they don’t fight them.”

The hour has slipped into rear view, and Orr is now standing atop a table in a room behind the Keith Hills golf shop. At issue is the short game concept of controlling the radius — in other words, what is lengthening and shortening during a player’s chipping motion.

“The reason why the average golfer has the chip yips is because they’ve set up to hit a low shot, and in their mind they are trying to hit a high, soft shot,” he reasons.

This session, presented to a graduate level contingency of Campbell University’s Professional Golf Management (PGM) Program, is canted in the direction of real world application — paper theory, he suggests, simply does not register with everyone.

“Put a ball about a foot from the edge of a mat,” he explains, “and try to get it on the ground as quickly as possible. What is that teaching them (students) to do? The ball goes in the air because of the loft, not because of the angle of attack.”

His message, rooted in one’s ability to communicate, is equal parts Daniel Kaffee from ‘A Few Good Men’ and professor John Keating from ‘Dead Poet’s Society’ — unafraid of the truth, its potential impact on a student’s psyche, and a coach’s willingness to walk a different path to generate success.

Over the years, Orr has employed this concept to successfully transit from a full-swing coach to a specialized entity — one who helps players motivate the golf ball to disappear with increased regularity, regardless of ability, green complex or high-stakes environment.

To that end, Orr respects the sweat equity of his students. In a game full of five footers, he prefers to place more value on the person standing over the putt — or the future instructor, for that matter — than the putt itself.

“People skills,” he exclaims. By his estimation, they make or break any professional, regardless of occupation. And as his students well know, they are non-negotiable.

“What’s work?” he asks. “It’s what you actually accomplish. What’s effort? That’s putting energy toward something, right? So, work is what you actually accomplish. Do you want to be average?”

Perhaps it is John Wooden who best captures the breadth of David Orr’s substance. The iconic UCLA basketball coach, whose dynastic teams won seven consecutive NCAA Division I titles, operated on a simple premise: Failure to prepare is preparing to fail.

“Here’s the thing about it,” he explains. “The brain works off movement, plans and strategies. You react to the plan.” To further this notion, he leans forward, saying, “We don’t give tips around here. We figure out what you’re doing. This is what you need to work on; go work on it.”

For many involved in the high profile web of a Tour player’s corporation, life can become difficult. Even for the world’s most sought after instructors, the balancing act can be difficult to manage. What begins as a working relationship can quickly flash into something complex and unyielding, and ultimately, distant.

Orr, however, remains grounded in the culture he has helped define at Campbell University. For students at “The Creek,” it is solely about the work. The environment is pure — wholly devoid of ego, personalized social media presence, entitlement or the high art of resting upon one’s laurels.

Ever the perfectionist, one would be hard pressed to imagine Orr anything less than excited about passing on what he has learned from countless others over his career.

“At Wells Fargo last year, I was walking back from the short game area with TJ Yeaton — who went through the program here — and we saw this kid down in a bunker,” he says, smiling, clearly fond of the memory. “It was another one of our guys, Jorge Parada (currently the instructor for Jonas Blixt).

“That was pretty neat. Moments like that are the most rewarding. They’re the fruits of your labor.”

Any coach worth his salt will tell you that creating a running sense of leverage often means success for his players. Suffice to say, this concept has allowed Orr to forge ahead in his scaled battle of work versus a job, of success versus being average.

For many in professional golf, life is scored in the harsh ledgers of longevity and winning percentage. Orr, however, views the matter differently, and does so through the looking glass of time well spent.

“I’m very fortunate,” he explains. “I don’t want to be rich, and I don’t want to be famous. I just want to be comfortable with what I do, and grateful for the relationships I have.”

At present, he appears content; almost relaxed. But that posture does not have much of a shelf life. There is a private lesson in five minutes, and more time to be spent refining the studio.

For David Orr, the writing is clearly on the wall.

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Justin Hayes is a freelance writer from Wilson, N.C. A life-long fan of Wake Forest University, he enjoys fiction and independent film.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Its like you learn my mind! You seem to understand a lot approximately this, such as you wrote the e book in it or something. I feel that you just can do with some p.c. to force the message home a bit, however instead of that, this is excellent blog. A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back.

  2. johnny

    Mar 11, 2013 at 4:22 pm

    have had the pleasure of spending a full day at the “creek”. david is a wealth of knowledge and a better man at that. one of the best experiences i have had. would love to go back in the next couple years

  3. Pingback: 2013 Goal - Visit to David Orr, Putting Guru

  4. Pingback: Meet putting guru David Orr | JR's site

  5. Rufiolegacy

    Mar 4, 2013 at 11:25 am

    Interesting read here, and well written. I can honestly say that this is at the very lest inspiring to get back to the grind stone and practice. Off to the gym to prep for the season.

  6. nick

    Mar 3, 2013 at 6:36 pm

    david orr is the truth. nuff said. he’s my coach and i wouldnt want anyone else looking at my putting stroke or full swing for that matter.

  7. Phil Howard

    Mar 2, 2013 at 7:35 pm

    GREAT ARTICLE!! Thanks for sharing!!

  8. siteseer2

    Mar 2, 2013 at 10:07 am

    David Orr is equal parts genius and humility…rare in the “me” golfworld in which he exists. Those who are fortunate enough to call him friend are truly blessed…

  9. Ben Alberstadt

    Mar 1, 2013 at 11:05 pm

    Fabulous writing, Mr. Hayes. Glad to see this got placement on Golf Digest, as well.

  10. Edmond Brooks IV

    Mar 1, 2013 at 8:38 pm

    David has helped me with putting and is a great coach easy to work with. I just hope he doesn’t get too famous or I will be waiting in line;) Way too go David and best of luck…..

  11. munihack

    Mar 1, 2013 at 9:28 am

    To some extent great putters are born and made. The subtle aspects of reading a green have a lot to do with how true your vision is. I have astigmatism (sp?) in both eyes and even with correction I miss things that good green readers see. The modern, flat greens give me more trouble than the old push-up tilted greens of earlier arhitects. I simply can’t read the flat ones well. I have a friend who has qualified for USGA national events and he sees all the subtle design aspects. Grain is another issue. That is why even at the tour level some guys are “regional” putters. Most people believe Tom Watson was a good or great putter but he didn’t win in Florida until years on the Champions Tour. Putting asks the golfer to see, feel and read the ground the way the full shot maker is expected to see, feel and read the distance, wind and topography to the target. Tough greens separate putters the way wind separates ball strikers. What all great teachers do is expose the student to the perspective and tools needed to resolve the question at hand. This teacher is one of them.

  12. Juan

    Feb 28, 2013 at 10:13 pm

    I have had the privilege of having David enable me to be a MUCH better putter. He is an excellent technician, but a better person. Congrats to Dave for getting some visibility

    • Anon.

      Mar 3, 2013 at 7:49 pm

      I worked with David a considerable about a number of years ago. I will lead off that he is a good person and has come a long way in life. With that being said, I was not entirely displeased with the experience.

      We worked on the principles from a book known as “the golfing machine”. Shortly after I stopped working with him he flopped over to a “new school” of golf known as the stack and tilt. I was extremely displeased that I had spent considerable time and money working with him building a swing engraved in the golfing machine, and he switched mechanics mid-stream on me.

      If you are an average-decent golfer or worse you cannot make a mistake with him. At this level generic advice will help you immensely. If you have a game where you bounce between a scratch and a +4 handicap, and you are trying to further your game I would not recommend him.

      Golf “advice/coaching” is tailored to your game, your swing, and your physical attributes. I strongly encourage anyone seeking advice from any “teacher” to take a couple lessons with a grain of salt and really think about what the person is saying before you embrace it and start making changes.

      *Disclaimer: If you are interested in taking one lesson, no matter who from, please ignore this article.

      • Ronnie Martin

        Mar 5, 2013 at 7:36 pm

        Here’s your problem bro, TGM is not a “method” but S&T is. In fact, TGM could inly help
        You understand what is taught by Plummer and Bennett and help you understand why the golf ball does what it does after the collision. I had the good fortune to hang out and learn from DO at Campbell while certifying as an Authorized Instructor of the Golfing Machine. in 2009. David Orr is a pathological teacher. He just wants to help people and he would probably do it for free if he had to. It’s dissapointing that you feel the need to disparage the man just because you don’t know the difference in a catalogue of components, and a method.

  13. Carson

    Feb 28, 2013 at 8:30 pm

    Great article! Thank you for sharing.

    A fellow North Carolinian,
    -Carson Henry

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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