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Tour’s anchored putter explanation doesn’t add up

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This week, PGA Commissioner Tim Finchem threw a new ingredient into the potboiler that is the anchored putter debate. Just when it looked like the USGA and the R&A had a clear path to send the broomstick the way of the dinosaur, the PGA Tour stated its opposition to such a ban in its formal comments to golf’s governing bodies.

Finchem is saying the position is based on three things: statistical evidence that long putters don’t make a difference, the unfairness to players on Tour who have grown up using an anchored putter of some sort and the fact that the amateur player would be harmed by a long putter ban. Since Finchem is an attorney, I’m sure that he would appreciate a critical examination of his evidence. Let’s begin.

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Finchem said in an interview there there was an “absence of data or any basis to conclude that there is a competitive advantage to be gained by using anchoring.” In one sense, he is correct. Of the top 20 percent of the Tour’s leading putters, none used an anchored putter. But the point is not if the long putter makes a given player statistically better than everyone else; the only meaningful statistic is if it makes the player better than he or she might have been using an unanchored putter with a conventional stroke. While the Tour has no way to compile such statistics, you can bet the players and their putting gurus do. If the putter works by the numbers on the practice green, then you can bet they are going to bring it to the course.

Then there’s the issue of players growing up using the longer putters. Finchem points to players like Webb Simpson and Keegan Bradley, saying, “given the amount of time that anchoring has been in the game, that there is no overriding reason to go down that road.” It is true that the long putter has been around for a full generation, and until now there has not been a serious move to shut it down, partially because the broomstick was seen as the last resort for old men and basket cases to maintain a vestige of dignity on the greens. But in recent times, talented young players have begun to see obvious advantage of the method to make themselves competition-ready in a facet of the game that might have taken many more years for them to become proficient with the unanchored putter. Again, it doesn’t make them ready to compete for the title of best putter, but it does put them a position to challenge for best player. Also, if something is inherently wrong, is the “we’ve always done it this way” argument a valid one?

Lastly, Finchem noted the he and the 12-member Player Advisory Council (Jim Furyk, Ken Duke, Harrison Frazar, Carl Pettersson, Patrick Sheehan, Chris Stroud, Bo Van Pelt, Joe Ogilvie, Stewart Cink, Ben Crane, Jason Day, Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Scott Verplank and Mark Wilson) were concerned about the welfare of the amateur player. If the long putter is banned, they reason, then thousands of amateur players would be robbed of a tool that makes them more effective and the game is more fun. Here’s where it gets tricky for the Tour. On the one hand they say that we should keep the anchor because there is no evidence that it makes anybody any better, but on the other hand they assert that it definitely makes people better, so we should keep it. It can be one or the other, but it can’t be both.

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On the Tour, there are no bigger prizes than the major championships. A single win at one of these exalted contests bring generational wealth and a lifetime of honor to the victor. Again, one of the reasons that a rule change was slow walked in the past was that no one had won a major using an anchored putter. All that changed with Keegan Bradley’s victory at the 2011 PGA Championship. And just in case anyone thought it was a fluke, Webb Simpson and Ernie Els used anchored putters to garner major wins in 2012. Bradley and Simpson are young bucks who broke through under the searing pressure of major championship competition. On the back nine on Sunday when you can’t feel your hands, isn’t it an advantage that when they are standing over a 6-footer for par, they don’t need to feel their hands? Isn’t it the same advantage for Els, a guy whose putter had recently stood between him and victory like a palace guard?

There are other rules that need to be addressed by the game’s guardians to ensure that the integrity of the game is maintained. I agree with Jack Nicklaus’ position that it is more important to address the physics of the golf ball than the anchored putter. I also have sympathy for Arnold Palmer’s view that there should be different equipment rules for amateurs playing in an unsanctioned environment purely for fun. But whether the anchored putter is kept or sent packing, golf must be honest and consistent about its reasons for doing so.

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Williams has a reputation as a savvy broadcaster, and as an incisive interviewer and writer. An avid golfer himself, Williams has covered the game of golf and the golf lifestyle including courses, restaurants, travel and sports marketing for publications all over the world. He is currently working with a wide range of outlets in traditional and electronic media, and has produced and hosted “Sticks and Stones” on the Fox Radio network, a critically acclaimed show that combined coverage of the golf world with interviews of the Washington power elite. His work on Newschannel8’s “Capital Golf Weekly” and “SportsTalk” have established him as one of the area’s most trusted sources for golf reporting. Williams has also made numerous radio appearances on “The John Thompson Show,” and a host of other local productions. He is a sought-after speaker and panel moderator, he has recently launched a new partnership with The O Team to create original golf-themed programming and events. Williams is a member of the United States Golf Association and the Golf Writers Association of America.

73 Comments

73 Comments

  1. Rewp

    Mar 13, 2013 at 12:45 am

    Lol so many comments regarding the long putters. It makes me laugh when those pure golfers make comments we should play golf as it was meant to be. I suggest that we then get rid of those high tech clubs and balls, get rid of the carts both driven and push, carry our own clubs, wear ties and shirts like they use to do, bring back the stymie rule. I always thought golf was to be enjoyed, as it is impossible to become perfect at this sport. I play golf for the pure enjoyment and friendship I have. Do want u want to those that make a living at this sport but as for me let me enjoy the sport as I do. My next question is when are we going to have drug tests for all amateurs?

  2. Michael

    Mar 12, 2013 at 1:05 am

    I agree with Stephanie Wei. It’s BS to assert that too many amateurs would be affected as 20% use it. We would have two out of our 400 members that use it and I’ve never payed someone in pennants that uses one. Secondly that’s why we have handicaps in amateurs; just because you don ‘t don’t do a particular skill doesn’t make it unfair. I struggle driving, my mate would be off 6 if he could chip and some blokes don’t put real coast. It’s called GOLF !

  3. Tom Hertwig

    Mar 3, 2013 at 1:19 pm

    Michael:

    Here are some additional facts

    Ernie Els used a long putter to win the 2012 Open Championship
    Adam Scott used a long putter to choke away victory.

    I guess you can say what was written does not ad up.

    I can tell you from personal experence that using a long putter has helped me control my hands. I have a putting green in my back yard and spend hours practicing with a ball on a 4ft x 3/4 inch piece of steel. I have to keep that ball on the steel before it falls into the hole. When giving yourself goals ie like I have to make 8 in a row, something in my body changes as I get closer to the goal.(maybe presure) The same goes when I practice with a short putter. I also see a difference when using a super stroke type grip that helps with hand issues. The facts are the facts, the best putters in the world use standard lenght putters. If in fact, Brandt Snedeker uses a pop stroke and is considered a very good putter then why did he 4 putt from 12ft a year or two ago to get a invite to the Masters. Maybe presure. I believe long putters have been around since 1936 with only a handfull of victories so whats the problem? Whats nice is to see is a 14year old, Guan Tialang from China winning an invite to the Masters using a long putter. The only thing I would change is the rule that allows using your longest club to make a drop, it should be the club you will use to make the shot.

  4. So why care?

    Mar 2, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    I still don´t get it why people get so bothered with the useage of long putters. Every player on tour have tried it and only 18% use it. That tells me that if even one of the 82% not using it would feel like it is an advantage, easier or “the easy way” that someone here called it they would instantly change to one. The tour players try everything just to improve their game 0,00001%.

    It doesn´t add upp to me, and dont´t come with “a golf stroke shouldnt be anchored because its not meant to be bla bla bla”

    I think this whole disscussion smells of bad publicity for the game of golf and just scares people away from the game. There is enough of rules as it is. ” This and that is banned, dont do that etc”….

  5. Colin

    Mar 1, 2013 at 11:26 am

    I don’t think this is about whether an anchored putter makes it easier or not (I certainly can’t work them out) – it’s more a question of whether the anchored stroke is really a golf shot or not. The argument is that the club should be held in the hands away from the body. For me, they do not represent the challenge of a golf stroke. This also has nothing to do with technology – 460cc drivers and SGI irons have brought more people into the game at the lower end, but they maintain the requirement for a semi-decent golf swing. They don’t turn people into great golfers because there is a trade off with what can be achieved with them.

    • So why care?

      Mar 2, 2013 at 3:44 am

      Why even bother? I dont get it? Why even care if its not easier or an advantage?

      The thing is that you get almost the same stroke not anchoring the broomstick i.e holding it 0,2 inches away from the body.

      Like Adam Scott said, this “rule” doesnt change anything!

      • Charles W. Wright

        Mar 2, 2013 at 11:22 am

        This so true! I just stood and held a long stick like a broom putter out in front of my chest and even without anchoring it at all the stroke would be the same. Thnx for sharing this. Although belly putters would be penalized by any new ruling, long broom style would not.

  6. TJ Cahill

    Mar 1, 2013 at 10:46 am

    In my estimate, this article is one of the most reasoned analyses on the PGA Tour decision. I want to play by the same rules as the professionals as a matter of personal integrity and challenge, but also as a matter of practicality where the USGA handicap is concerned. I think anchoring the putter is damn creative and works great for many, but inconsistent with the stroke rule. I will not do it, but I can understand why many do, especially if you have built great proficiency with such a stroke (or an anchored version of a stroke).

  7. David

    Feb 28, 2013 at 10:14 pm

    Waiting 30 years and then banning it, I don’t really care one way or the other but how about showing some pro-activeness in your decisions. At this point I think you have let it alone and let the R&A and the rest of them figure it out, good job Finchman.

  8. The Hinge.....

    Feb 28, 2013 at 10:09 pm

    Why do people continue to use other equipment as a comparison? Isn’t the article about anchoring the putter? Meaning using part of your body as assistance to stabilize your stroke. You can use a flag pole for all I care, but its not supposed to be attached to a third body part and used as a hinge. Why is that so hard to understand. Whether there has been a benefit or not, it’s the stroke that is the topic, not the tool used in a game that is challenging, and no matter what the outcome (“long putter hasn’t affected anything”, how do you or anyone else know until its gone?), having assistance as a hinge and not affecting outcome of gameplay just shows how much worse you would be without the stability of your chest or stomach.

  9. Paul

    Feb 28, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    Im against long putters, thats where i sit.

    But what really annoys me is that you are allowed to use that club to get yourself out of trouble ie. with a drop.

    It’s a clear foot longer than a driver (the broom handle) and should not be allowed as the club you can use to get yourself a drop away from trouble.

    • Do your matchs!

      Feb 28, 2013 at 4:02 pm

      no its not! A standard length driver is 48″ including head and 50″ is the maximum these days. So 4″ at max!

  10. peter cybulski

    Feb 28, 2013 at 10:58 am

    I guess the pga tour , would vote for a bigger hole if given the chance.

    Ban em!

  11. m Bartolomeo

    Feb 28, 2013 at 8:09 am

    kind of hard to post an article against finchem’s 3 reasons when your opening statements agree with each point.

  12. Leftyken

    Feb 28, 2013 at 7:39 am

    If it was an advantage most pros and amateurs would be using it…pure and simple. In these days of mincing words and mis-speaks why is it so hard to comprehend. I putt cross-handed, is that fair? What about cavity backs over pure blades, they never outlawed cavity back irons despite them being an advantage over blades…pure and simple. I think the long putter especially looks ridiculous and I have tried it and see no advantage. I know many people who have tried it and gave up on it. Some golfers like cord grips, others like plain rubber or synthetics. Why outlaw it, it is nothing more than some powerful people in golf choosing who can own…guns. The USGA, PGA and R&A are the govt telling us what we can and cannot shoot…pure and simple.

    • Colin Gillbanks

      Feb 28, 2013 at 8:37 am

      There’s valid arguments to be made about the advantages given by modern equipment, but this is to do with a fundamental change in the way a ‘stroke’ is made. I think that’s why it’s being highlighted ahead of any other issue. Things like different grips – either the rubber ones on your clubs or the way in which your hands are placed on the club – are relatively minor details in the grand scheme of things.

      • Charles W. Wright

        Feb 28, 2013 at 9:16 am

        Colin, I respect your IMO purist arguments. But the game of golf is played with your whole body not just hands and arms. I see people who swing, although poorly, with there arms almost locked to their sides trying to hit a driver. It may be almost comical to witness but it is a golf stroke, ie an attempt to advance the ball to the hole. As an advanced player, yes this is not as we see it,PURE golf. There are thousands of players who will buy a purespin or whatever to advance their games. It has been this way since ancient times in Scotland.

        • Colin gillbanks

          Feb 28, 2013 at 3:52 pm

          Likewise, Charles. It’s good to have sensible debate on these things. You’re right about me being a bit of a purist, although I do use cavity back (albeit forged mizuno pure-looking ones) irons and I’m a sucker for an adjustable driver! I’m not sure where that leaves me in a debate about whats traditional in the game of golf!!

    • Really? 3 posts

      Feb 28, 2013 at 12:27 pm

      You are missing the point….every novel you right you speak of equipment. It’s the swing that’s the issue. So stop reiterating equipment references. I nor anyone cares how you hold your hands…so long as nothing is attached to any part of ur body other then ur hands. Did you read the title? Carry whatever you want, harnessing for extra stability is an advantage, and why doesn’t everyone do it? Same reason people play from tips. Playing at maximum difficulty is the game for some, not taking shortcuts to make easier

      • Long putter

        Feb 28, 2013 at 4:00 pm

        The point is that it there is an advantage or not! Who the fudge cares if someone anchors his putter or not!!??

        Go out and practice or do something useful instead of complaining and whining!

        I.e Mind your own bussines!

  13. John Waring

    Feb 27, 2013 at 7:23 pm

    My issue is with being able to use the long putter to gain an advantage when dropping 2 club lengths, surely you must use the club you intend to use for the shot after the drop. As far as putting goes, so what, we are In aperpetual state of
    Change in all areas of life, things change and develop, bottom line is you still need the talent to swing the club.

    • Long putter

      Feb 28, 2013 at 3:47 pm

      My putter is 48 inches and my driver including the head is 48 inches long. The longest putter ive ever seen is a 50 inch putter and the guy using it is almost 6 feet 5 inches. If im not misstaken you are not allowed to have a longer club than 50 inches.

      So a normal driver including clubhead is 48 and the maximum is 50, that gives 4 inches of extra droping space.

      Do you still think its unfair if I have a 50 inch driver and use it to drop?

  14. Brad B

    Feb 27, 2013 at 6:45 pm

    Calling anchoring “inherently wrong” begs the question.

    “Anchoring” has never been illegal – which is why we’re where we are. It’s hard to call something which has never been illegal “inherently wrong” …. that’s elevating your opinion to a status which isn’t justified. Your opinion is just that – “your opinion.”

    “Anchoring” wasn’t widely practiced until Orville Moody, et al. because, for anything other than putting, it’s impractical – it simply isn’t possible to generate the power required for the vast majority of golf shots if the butt of the club is anchored. And while someone could, perhaps, use anchoring to “solve” problems with chipping & pitching yips, a wedge of that length would be unusable for all the other shots for which we carry that club.

    You suggest that it provides players using the anchored stroke some sort of unfair advantage – “they’re better than they would be if they weren’t allowed to anchor.” With all due respect, we don’t know that. All we do know is that anchoring has allowed some players who were disasters via other methods to compete – Moody, Litzke, Langer being a few examples. We also know that a number of players have gone “long” and then, eventually, abandoned it and returned to more conventional methods – in other words, it doesn’t work for everyone.

    For players like Bradley, it’s all they know. And they’ve known it as “legal” for a long, long time.

    Absent demonstrable evidence that it is a superior way to putt – absent a stampede of golfers abandoning the conventional stroke for some sort of anchored stroke – all invoking Bradley & Webb Simpson & Adam Scott does is demonstrate that, for these guys, it works.

  15. reasonable human

    Feb 27, 2013 at 5:38 pm

    I think a lot of people are getting a bit confused and angry. The R&A and USGA have nothing against the technology of the putters or the length, only the actual act of anchoring the putter to your body, which essentially adds an element of stability to the swing. Older players and others with bad backs will still have all the remedial effects of the longer putter, but will still be making a pure stroke at the ball with only their hands as points of contact with the club. I have nothing against people who use long putters, and don’t think it takes anything away from the amount of skill it takes players like Bradley, Simpson and Els to win majors with them, but I think the PGA Tour throwing all it’s toys out the pram over it is a little ridiculous. They are not a ruling body, and should respect the ruling bodies decisions. Any comments they felt they needed to make to the R&A and USGA should have been made behind closed doors.

  16. Nicksmate

    Feb 27, 2013 at 1:40 pm

    At my club one person uses a belly putter, no-one uses a broom.

    I sometimes get the yips but hey, that’s golf it’s not supposed to be easy. They should have been banned years ago but better late than never.

  17. Charles W. Wright

    Feb 27, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    If anything new like long anchored putters are to be deemed to be evil and banned. Why not go back 40 more years and ban metal woods and cavity back irons as they are definitely easier for most people to hit. We can all be stuck in the past with our little wooden clubs and Gutta-percha balls.

    • Colin gillbanks

      Feb 27, 2013 at 3:47 pm

      Charles,

      The club isn’t the issue, it’s the anchoring. Large headed drivers and cavity back irons undoubtedly make the game easier because do their forgiving nature, but they still need the skill of swinging the club in the correct manner to work for player. Anchoring a long putter is deemed to be in contravention of the rules and/or spirit of the game because it alters the way a stroke is made. Technology and its advancements are one thing, but a change to the very essence of the skills required to play the game are quite another.

      • Charles W. Wright

        Feb 27, 2013 at 8:16 pm

        And it took these self professed “guardians of the game” 40 years to come to this conclusion? If their argument was of merit it should have been addressed a VERY long time ago. Do we now rescind all wins that have occurred at all levels because these “guards” don’t like that they were won against what they believe to be the only WAY it should be. I have tried the belly putter and quit it very soon because there is very little feel in lag puts. But, I just feel these putters have been a part of the game too long to arbitrarily change now.

        • Colin Gillbanks

          Feb 28, 2013 at 6:30 am

          That’s a fair point. Why now? I don’t have an answer to that apart from it maybe having become more of an issue in that a lot more players are using it? I don’t think there’s an issue about rescinding wins as it was legal when players won using the anchored putter. To me, anchoring a stroke is not part of the game of golf and should never have been allowed in the first place.

          • Leftyken and Charles

            Feb 28, 2013 at 10:26 pm

            What will it take for you guys to understand its a hinged stroke situation and NOT equipment? Go ahead fire back with more useless political comparisons of guns, or crossing your legs….get it through ur head, not the gun, it’s how it’s being used.

      • Leftyken

        Feb 28, 2013 at 7:45 am

        What about all the different putting grips people use. The “claw” has won several times and people putt crosshanded. The equipment can be regulated but how someone uses it to get the job done is really irrelevant. What about the person who may be a baby now coming up with a swing that allows him to shoot 62 literally everytime he tees it up. The swing is as separate as fingerprints despite people saying the pros swing the same. It is a slippery slope and if the gray area is this large maybe it should not be messed with.

    • joemomma

      Feb 27, 2013 at 6:51 pm

      thank you you are the only one with any sense on this page. its just a bunch of salty people because they need something to complain about for tour players winning.

      • Colin Gillbanks

        Feb 28, 2013 at 6:33 am

        Steady on Joe! It’s all about opinions, dude. Most of the opinions I’ve read on here are well thought out and valid (for both sides of the argument).

  18. John B

    Feb 27, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    Since the R&A and the USGA have decided to ban something that has been approved and used for over 40 years, I am wondering what they will ban 40 years from now that has just come along.

  19. Travis

    Feb 27, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    Just my 2 cents i have no dog in this fight putt how you want
    I’m pretty sure Sam Snead probably has a comment or two about against allowing anchor putting to stand.
    The entire case brought against Snead and his method of putting to prevent his yips was that it went against the tradition of the game and the spirit in which it was founded…. With that said
    I am not making a case for or against
    But I know if a legal matter would come about from this subject
    Due to te reasons they gave for banning croquet style putting they would more than likely rule to ban anchoring

    • Jason

      Mar 24, 2013 at 9:52 pm

      Is the long wand really that different from the oversize mallet that reduces the impact of off center hits, oversize drivers and irons, or hybrids? All of these were designed to make the game easier and you all use them without an inkling of guilt. Purists…..i think not

  20. Chris

    Feb 27, 2013 at 11:47 am

    Instead of the long short putter issue, how about limiting the ball distance

  21. Charlie

    Feb 27, 2013 at 11:39 am

    I’ve never had the yips, but have and use a belly putter. After the proposed rule from USGA I switched to use that putter as it is used by Matt Kuchar. Now it works better for me than before. I agree with USGA.

  22. illegal

    Feb 27, 2013 at 5:23 am

    Question if its not a competitive advantage, do you know anybody with long putters, got the yips then switched back to a short putter?

  23. Dear John

    Feb 26, 2013 at 11:58 pm

    Would the 18% even be on tour if they had to put with a non-anchored putter?

    • Leftyken

      Feb 28, 2013 at 7:53 am

      How many would be on tour if they had to use the clubs from the 70’s. Does that make them a better more skilled golfer? Why don’t we let the men and women play together, the women play at 6000 yards the men at 7000 yards. Tiger is so good, he should only get 12 clubs. There is too much intrusion in people’s lives as it is. The long putter has been around too long to ban now.

  24. Stefan on tour if........

    Feb 26, 2013 at 11:49 pm

    Exactly, you can’t put with a short putter, so you are taking advantage of a long putter to better your game. Get it? And you said you even have trouble with that. How about practice with a short putter like the other 80%, and we will see you on tour or would that take too much effort? Or just continue to take the easy way out. What’s fun about taking the easy route? I prefer the challenge, but as a scratch golfer youre obviously spending time on other parts of the game while others are constantly pushing their skills on the green putting with there hands and dealing with yips. You’re dealing with lack of putting skill whatever the weapon of choice. I WOULD REALLY LOVE TO SEE THE RESULTS IF IT WERE BANNED AS IT HAS ” NO EFFECT ON THE GAME” that’s a joke.

  25. Winmac

    Feb 26, 2013 at 9:38 pm

    Could be a good move as anchored putter could be the reason that hindered players like Keegan Bradley to putt better? Maybe after using normal lenght putters, he’d be as good as Snedeker?

  26. Dave

    Feb 26, 2013 at 4:51 pm

    You, like Finchem and the PGA, are using only the facts that serve your point.

    If you are going to say that Ernie Els’ anchored putter helped him win the British when the pressure was on, then you have to also discuss Adam Scott’s meltdown on the greens also using an anchored putter.

    Not saying I disagree with you – there are very strong arguments to be made on both sides – and honestly, I really don’t care which way they go. It’s tough however to say that the “integrity of the game” is threatened by anchored putters, but having no problem with 460cc drivers, cavity back iron, hybrids in general and shafts made out of space age material… you almost have to limit everything if you want to limit the anchored putter… and that isn’t going to happen.

  27. Stefan

    Feb 26, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    I have used a long putter for over 12 years now (I’m 23 now). The argument that a long putter eliminates your nerves just isn’t true. I have a serious case of the yips and still have it regardless of the situation I’m in. I switched from a belly putter because I got the yips with it and am now using a broomstick.

    What people don’t understand is that just because my broomstick helps me eliminate the yips it wont stop me from hitting a bad stroke.

    I get so angry with people using the argument that they should ban it because “its much easier”… well its not! I would really like to putt with a short putter but i just cant. I’m a scratch golfer and loose all my shots on the green. If a had all my friends putting i would be on the tour as we speak.

    I really think people should mind their own business instead of complaining on what others do! Play and have fun and try to be the best golfer you can be!

  28. Brian Utley

    Feb 26, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    On the back nine on Sunday when you can’t feel your hands, isn’t it an advantage that when they are standing over a 6-footer for par, they don’t need to feel their hands? Isn’t it the same advantage for Els, a guy whose putter had recently stood between him and victory like a palace guard?

    Well, it wasn’t the same advantage for Adam Scott on that same Sunday afternoon.

  29. M

    Feb 26, 2013 at 12:43 pm

    Mike is asking the wrong question. It is the USGA’s explanation for the proposed ban that does not add up. The argument that a putt is supposed to be made with 2 hands swinging freely away from the body is not anywhere in the current rules (hence the need to make up a new rule) but also is not consistent with the long tradition of numerous styles of putting. Anchoring is only one style. Kuchar’s style (anchored to the forearm) although still legal is not swinging with 2 hands freely from the body. Langer’s old style (also anchored to forearm albeitly with different hand position is not either. Even under the proposed rule, a broom style stroke is still legal as long as the top hand is moved 1 inch away from the body–but even with that move it is still not 2 hands swinging freely. The fact is many styles of putting do not involve 2 hands swinging freely away from the body. In reality, the proposed rule is arbitrary and is a result of a change in leadership, and agenda, at the USGA. The day before Mike Davis arrived the anchored stroke was legal and essentially the day after it is proposed as illegal. The USGA as an entity hasn’t changed, only the agenda of a new leader has changed and that is completely arbitrary. I further think Michael Williams’ definition of competitive advantage (if something makes ME play better versus myself) is silly. It would makes literally any improvement by one player versus himself illegal whether a lesson, new equipment, etc. Competitive advantage is something one player would have over another, which anchored putting does not provide (there is no statistical evidence it does) and furthermore the fact that the vast majority of amatuer and pros do not use this style underscores this. I further take issue with the conclusory statement that anchoring is an advantage is majors or pressure situations. Putting for most players is about feel, and anchoring eliminates one major part of the feel. For most players, the loss of feel resulting from anchoring is a disadvantage. For those who anchor, the loss of feel is a major detriment and one that they endeavor to compensate for but can never really ever duplicate the feel of a so-called “traditional” stroke. It is a trade-off, and one that is frankly a net detriment to one who anchors. The loss of feel in my opinion makes anchoring a competitive disadvantage but, again, it is just one form of putting and players should be free to chose the style that they feel best allows them to play and enjoy the game. The USGA has it wrong on this issue and I trust that the agenda of the new leadership takes a back seat to common sense and empirical data (of which, again, there is none). We only have anecdotal, conclusory statements like those offered by Michael Williams which is not a basis to make, or support, a rule change.

    • Charles W. Wright

      Feb 27, 2013 at 2:29 pm

      Well said. It is an agenda issue.

  30. Dane

    Feb 26, 2013 at 10:27 am

    Long or belly putters are a style of putting, just as cross handed, the claw, split hand, ect. Makes sense to some but not others. If they are banned cavity backs should be banned as well.

  31. Tom Otto

    Feb 26, 2013 at 9:54 am

    I think that the anchored putter has really brought all the importance of practicing off of putting. Last year, all but one major winner used an anchored putter and all of them were long hitters. It gives children the idea if you can jut hit the ball a country mile and be an average putter, you can make it on the tour. I don’t think anybody really “grew up” with the anchored putter because every player had started with a regular putter when they were young. The anchored putter just makes the guys who couldn’t putt before have an advantage with being able to save strokes on the green without practicing like all the other guys.

    • Jay

      Feb 26, 2013 at 11:58 am

      Kind of like the 460cc driver gives an advantagfe to the guy who wasn’t a great ball striker and didn’t want to practice to become one. He needed the extra distance/forgiveness the new drives provide so he took the shortcut?

  32. B

    Feb 26, 2013 at 4:17 am

    Who cares there are that many other facets of golf that provide distinct advantages eg ball, new irons, new drivers, were do you start. If you want to use a long putter use it, if you don’t like them don’t use one. I’d rather see them stop caddies planting themselves behind the player and helping them line up.

  33. T

    Feb 26, 2013 at 2:27 am

    Curious if Tom Watson used an anchored putter on the 18th hole of 2009 British Open, would he be holding the claret jug?

  34. G

    Feb 26, 2013 at 1:31 am

    Anchor putter users VS Traditionals: FIGHT!

    lol

  35. Harold

    Feb 25, 2013 at 6:51 pm

    I would say that anchored putters allow you to practice putting for a longer period of time. I think that would be more performance enhancing than deer antler spray. I think the powers that be let it go too long now, (no pun intended) although I wish they would ban them. If they aren’t an advantage then people shouldn’t have a problem changing back to unanchored methods.
    I also don’t think using a line on the ball to line up a putt should be allowed either but all this is just my opinion.

  36. Andrew

    Feb 25, 2013 at 6:14 pm

    There is no reason to ban long putting. There is no evidence saying the game was intended to be played one way and not another. Had it been a problem it should have been said when it started. You can not say now that long putting is illegal because you have allowed to to happen. The best example is the prohibition of alcohol. They tried to stop it and the people didn’t care. Once you let in you can’t just take it out. Anyone who is golf a “purist” should understand the only thing that makes golf pure is the feeling of contact and getting the ball in the hole. I am sure you have all heard this a thousand times before “there are no pictures on the scorecard, only numbers.” “It doesn’t matter how but how many.” I personally could care less as long as the person enjoys the game pro or not but to take it out now is outrageous.

  37. Svensson

    Feb 25, 2013 at 5:36 pm

    What they are saying is pretty much this then;

    A. There is NO competitive advantage to be gained by using anchoring on the Tour.

    – but –

    B. There is SOME competitive advantage to be gained by using anchoring if you are an amateur.

    And of course you can feel your hands on Sunday. Don’t be ridiculous.

    • David Johns

      Feb 27, 2013 at 12:20 pm

      Actually, what they are saying is that Anchored Putting does not make putting significantly easier (if at all) than regular putting in general.

      It is easier for some player so they choose to use it. It is also easier to use a regular putting stroke for some players, so they choose to use that.

      If we suddenly forced all players to used an anchored putting stroke there would be a ton of very good putters that would suddenly be only average and may never get very good again.

      “Different strokes for different folks” has never been more appropriate.

      It is kind of akin to a fade being easier for some players and a draw being easier for others.

      Or some players prefer blades and some prefer cavity backs…

      Unless the anchored putter is giving players an unfair ADVANTAGE there is really no compelling reason to make them illegal to use.

      DaveJ

  38. Kyle

    Feb 25, 2013 at 4:29 pm

    Well reasoned. I disagree, but I understand your argument and think it’s a reasonable one.

    One thing I would say, however, is that the Tour’s stance that there is no statistical evidence of advantage on the one hand, and that the long putter should be preserved to keep amateurs in the game on the other hand, is not an inherently inconsistent position.

    The fact that, statistically, the anchored putter seems to make no difference as compared to the traditional putter, does not mean that amateurs don’t enjoy or prefer it, or even find it necessary. A thing can be statistically insignificant on the one hand, but still important or necessary to someone on the other.

    Thus, a close analysis of that part of the issue reveals it’s not really as tricky as it may seem.

    • CallawayLefty

      Feb 28, 2013 at 1:53 pm

      Yeah, said even stronger, statistics citing that long putters do nothing for PGA Tour Pros does not necessarily mean that the statistics would show they do nothing for amateurs. At least in this lawyer’s mind, it’s a pretty big logical gap in your argument. I think we can all agree that the Alien wedge did nothing for the pros, but…well…you get my point.

  39. HawaiiDawg

    Feb 25, 2013 at 4:29 pm

    Great article…agree 100%. p.s. You spelled the Bear’s name wrong. Yikes!

  40. t

    Feb 25, 2013 at 4:13 pm

    I’ve been playing this game for 30 years and every year I lose more and more respect for the USGA and the PGA Tour. Golf was meant to be played with 2 hands holding the club, pure and simple. The anchor putter gives a clear advantage to players who could not putt otherwise, and its quickly now becoming the standard. If it wasn’t a clear advantage, the players wouldn’t be fighting it. I would never resort to such lengths to putt better. That’s just me; I like to consider myself a golf purist. If I have the yips, I have the yips. But that won’t stop me from playing. It is what it is.

    • John

      Feb 25, 2013 at 4:55 pm

      If the long putter is clearly an advantage, why when large sums of money are involved do only 15-18% of pros use currently use them?

      • Dear John

        Feb 26, 2013 at 11:56 pm

        Would the 18% even be there using a traditional stroke?

        • AndyE3

          Feb 27, 2013 at 3:25 pm

          Would 82% be there if they were forced to use and anchored putter?

    • Mike

      Feb 25, 2013 at 5:18 pm

      Well T if you have been playing 30 years then i guess your bag is made up of Persimmon woods and old blade irons.. i doubt that is the case as I’m sure your’re using 460 driver and the latest forgiving irons. Guess what the world has changed get use to it. Belly/Long putters are new world order like computers,twitter,face book and internet golf WEB forums…..

      • Per

        Feb 25, 2013 at 5:57 pm

        Tomorrows new world order might be short putters?

      • Joseph

        Feb 27, 2013 at 11:59 pm

        Excellent point Mike! as for the others: wasn’t golf truly meant to be played with Hickory shafts and featheries? I think the writer is wrong, I’ll bet there’s a few pro’s out there who putt better with the long putter but would never use it. I’m sure too that these protesters don’t ride carts on their home courses either.

    • Golfzalo

      Feb 25, 2013 at 8:16 pm

      Totally agree with you! I have yips, so I use pencil putting grip…yips gone, but anchoring the putter to my body is a shortcut for people who doesn’t want to work harder to put well under pressure.

    • bob

      Feb 27, 2013 at 1:40 pm

      So has the cross hand grip!!!

    • Reppoc

      Feb 27, 2013 at 3:09 pm

      There is no evidence or statistics that prove it is an advantage! How can that be more clear? And the dumbest arguement of all is the “game that is meant to be played with two hands… Blah blah blah!!! I’ve played with guys with one arm! One leg! It is a game to be “played” and enjoyed! If you feel anchoring a putter helps you putt.., ok! Enjoy! Get out and play! And what about seniors with bad back? The long putter allows them so much relief!!
      Ok.. Golf was a game to be played by walking… With wooden clubs… And feather balls! Get back to that and I will listen to a. silly anchored putter arguement!

    • dcjazzman

      Feb 27, 2013 at 3:13 pm

      Too bad some guys “grew up” with an ILLEGAL putter. I strongly disagree with allowing pros to use them in tournments. Personally, I don’t care what amateurs use, but the pros should tow the line. If they’re too shaky to use a regular puttet, then they don’t deserve to be on the PGA and senior tours in my view.

    • Jack Nash

      Feb 27, 2013 at 5:36 pm

      Well said t. Couldn’t agree more.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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