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Opinion: Courses must be proactive to speed up play

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USGA President Glen Nager recently announced that, “Golf needs to act,” concerning the problem of slow play. Slow play is an issue as old as time itself, and the answer to the problem, as it always has been, is as obvious as it ever was.

The pace of play on golf courses across the world has to be dictated and policed by the golf course staff. For the same reason we have highway patrolmen and police officers handing out speeding tickets and traffic violations, we need the people that manage golf courses to pro-actively manage golfers.

There has to be someone in control. There has to be bosses. People need to be managed. Without authority there is anarchy, and anarchy on a golf course leads to people being discourteous and selfish and to time standing still.

On one golf course where I play they used to have a grumpy older fellow named Gene. Gene ran the pro shop, acted as a starter and marshaled the course with swift justice. He was a little guy who chain smoked, and had no time or patience for people slowing down the pace. Gene knew that just like the selfish and rude people who drive poorly and unsafely on our streets and highways, there are golfers who act selfishly and rude on our courses if they are not stopped. He understood very well that golf courses are really just small little societies, and that we as golfers are “all in this together.”

If your group was slow and people were backing up behind you, he told you to pick up the pace. He pointed ahead of you and said that two holes were open, and he pointed behind you and showed you the three groups stacked up behind you. He knew no favorites and he accepted no excuses. They were glorious times. Gene recently lost a hard fought battle with lung cancer, may he rest in peace, and that golf course has never been the same since he left. I think about him often when slow players bog down a golf course.

The group I was playing in recently caught up to a young man playing by himself. On the tee box he hit multiple tee shots in all directions, oblivious to the fact that we were watching him on a tee box behind him on the same hole. He proceeded to criss-cross back and forth across the fairway, hitting the balls that were findable. Once he made it to the green he proceeded to “putt” while lying flat on his chest and using the end of his putter grip like a pool cue. The young lady riding along in the cart with him finally noticed us and pointed back to us waiting and watching him. He jumped up, made sure to show us an exasperated look to let us know that we were bothering him, and went back and putted normally several times from other positions. He and his “caddy” then walked the 50-yard walk back to the rough where they left the cart and drove off. He piddled around on the tee box long enough that by the time our group caught him, we once again had to watch him take several practice swings between half a dozen “tee shots” that went everywhere. Then he turned around and gave us the stink eye. It was just delightful.

That fellow obviously represented an extreme to the argument that golf courses need to be policed. Maybe he is part of the 10 percent jerk factor. He might be the same guy who weaves in and out of traffic on the highway as he drives at an excessive speed while eating his breakfast burrito and texting. You might be inclined to flip this fellow the bird as you throw your beer at him and rev your engine to get away, but the best option is for a highway patrolman to handle the situation. An authority figure needs to take control.

The other end of that spectrum is a well-known county judge who also plays at the same club as the pool-putting dufus. He’s a super nice guy, and a man who seems really young to have been re-elected multiple times. But at the golf course he is known as “black death.” No one ever makes it more than nine holes with him. He aligns and adjusts, re-thinks, re-aligns and adjusts. And that is him just putting on his glove. He takes countless practice swings, countless looks down the fairway or at the green and spends forever tinkering the alignment of his club face at address. And of course, he walks slow.

A woman wearing a trenchcoat, who was as short as she was wide, and her playing companion who each trickled the ball down the fairway 10 times before they got to the green, actually had to play through him. My group had been behind the man and the woman, only to see the worst possible scenario waiting for us on the next tee. The judge and his partner saw us standing there, and saw the other two groups backed up on the par three we just left. They decided the best way to handle that was to dig in their heels and ruin the day for everyone. No one else was going through. We could have played six holes in the time the man and woman could play just one hole, and this judge and his partner were three holes behind them “immediately.”

A slow group has no more right to play at a pace that backs up the course than a fast group should expect to fly through a course on a busy day. This isn’t a statement about good golfers versus bad golfers. The bottom line is that golf needs to be fun for slow groups as well as fast groups, and without everyone going out of their way to accommodate for each other, the two speeds need to either be policed or separated.

The people that run golf courses need to get together and declare themselves an ardent supporter and enforcer of a faster pace of play, or as a course that welcomes anyone who wishes to play slowly. It’s time to separate the masses.

To the gentleman who commented on my last slow play story that by gosh he likes to smoke cigars, sip cognac, and take his time on the few occasions where he can get out to the course and he doesn’t want to be asked to finish in four hours, he should have golf courses or time slots that are dedicated to his preferred pace of play. And to the groups that play ready golf and finish in three hours or less, they should have courses or time slots that cater to them.

Granted, some properties are just too massive to expect golfers to be able to finish in a certain time frame, but you can bet that if groups are holding up the golf course and they are warned that they will be forced to pick up the pace or leave, they will find a way to be more efficient in their movements and decisions.

If a golf course wants to opt out of a formal play pace announcement, they need to designate slow play times and fast play times, or at the very least have a presence on the course. But they cannot just say it, they need to live it.

Another place where I play regularly has two courses. Every morning on one of the courses they block off all tee times from 9 a.m. to 12-noon for ladies’ tee times that are never half used. They are either scared to death of the ladies who are members, like the rest of us are, or they want them to not feel like they belong on the course at other times.

One afternoon my group caught up to a twosome of ladies. The two of them got into an argument, and took turns getting in and out of a fairway bunker and pointing at something in the yard of one of the homes that lined the fairway. They stood there for several minutes before they moved on. Our group hit our tee shots once they cleared the way, and to our surprise our tee shots came to rest in the fairway next to the cart they were driving, which was parked 70-yards from the green in the middle of the fairway. They finished putting and saw us parked there beside them. They made no effort to acknowledge us, even as they were five feet away. They took their time and were still on the tee box for the next hole when we arrived there. One of them motioned to the other that we were there again, the other lady must have said she didn’t care if we lived or died.

We waited on every shot for the next four holes, each time having to watch them walk back to the middle of the fairway to retrieve their cart. Finally, they apparently got into another argument about letting us play through. The first lady gestured to the fact that there were now four groups backed up behind them on two holes. The second lady, clearly irritated, sculled her chip across the green, chunked the next one, and three-putted before she stormed back down the fairway to her cart and drove off the golf course. When we called the shop to ask them to help us out after the second hole of waiting, they made it clear that they wanted no part of the situation.

These examples of golfer-on-golfer crimes happened at private courses. This is not about private golf versus public golf, this is about the game of golf turning into the house from the movie “Project X.” Slow players and fast players just don’t mix.

What some people posted about what a round of golf entails for them any time they play was an astonishing eye opener. There were posts of people driving for an hour to play, warming up an hour, playing for five or six hours, trying to squeeze in a little 19th-hole time, and driving home for another hour. I admire their commitment, but that is not a sustainable model for the future of golf. They didn’t mention if they drove for that hour because the course they wanted to play was $15 less than the five or six within 15-minutes of them, but the five or six hours on the course means that the golf course staff wasn’t doing their jobs. A packed golf course does not have to be a slow golf course.

For golf to be successful in bringing back players who left the game or play less frequently because in far too many places it has become an all day affair, courses need to take every step possible in shortening a round. No idea to improve the situation is off the table.

Every little idea can have compounding positive effects. Courses with native areas and gunch need to post them to be played as lateral hazards rather than normal lost ball rules. Golfers need to be started on tees that are appropriate for their skill levels. To ease frustration golfers need to be encouraged to not only play tees that are appropriate but also courses that match their experience and skill set. People need to not believe that nothing can be done that mind set has to change.

The USGA likes to talk about growing the game. Growing the game can have many different meanings. A nine-hour commitment for a round of golf will not catch on for many people looking for an outdoor activity. The game will also not grow from a youth movement learning to play the game more quickly if they learn by watching their favorite golfers and their mannerisms on television.

It’s time we stop giving guys like Tiger Woods a free pass. One only had to watch the European Tour event in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago to see a stark contrast between Tiger’s mind numbing pre-shot routine and green reading processes with Rory McIlroy’s ready golf style. Rory was practically pulling the trigger before Tiger’s shots landed on the green or his putts stopped rolling. Tiger doesn’t seem interested in getting any of that work done before it’s his turn either. It almost looked like he knew he was driving McIlroy crazy with his pace. When people see Tiger’s 10 practice swings and his process of walking slow circles around every putt they tend to think all that time is necessary for them too.

Golf means different things to people. It’s time we stop treating golfers like we all approach it the same way. If there is always going to be fast and slow people, we need to separate them. And the slow people need to be helped to see how easily they could play faster. It’s time for the sellers and providers of golf to re-affirm their professionalism and take control of their courses. They need to use cattle prods to move people along when necessary, shorten courses, adjust the rules, spread out tee times…they need to commit to anything and everything that helps.

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Kevin was voted "Most Likely To Live to Be 100" by his high school graduating class. It was all down hill from there.

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Troy Vayanos

    Feb 13, 2013 at 3:32 am

    Nice post Kevin,

    At my home course the golf starter every Saturday drives around and checks on the pace of play. It helps only to a point but it can’t stop someone from having a bad hole and slowing down the rest of the field behind them.

  2. Adam

    Feb 12, 2013 at 5:51 pm

    Etiquette certainly needs to be taught to all beginners and refreshed to all players. Every course should have a short note in their carts and/or on the first tee. Just a friendly reminder of what holds the game together. Something like

    Please remember to:
    1- Rake the bunkers
    2- Fix your ball marks
    3- Be aware of your pace of play and position.
    4- Have fun!

    Obviously the last one is dependent on the pace of play, number of ball marks you bounce over and foot prints you land in…

  3. Jeremy

    Feb 8, 2013 at 3:12 pm

    Great article. Slow play is one of my biggest frustrations with golf. In Colorado you can expect a 5+ hour round on any given weekend in the spring and summer. I think that golfers need to stop thinking they are playing for the FedEx cup. Is it really necessary to take 3 or 4 practice swings only to hit a poor shot??? Golfers should focus on the shot at hand rather than their swing during the round. Also, READY GOLF people. I don’t think the entire foursome needs to watch every single shot of every single player. It is comedic sometimes watching a foursome in 2 carts driving to each players ball. Even funnier (not really) is when after all the effort to play in turn and the golf duffs the ball 20 yards. In addition, get over losing a ball. Do you really need to search for more than five minutes for a lost ball? Get over it and take your drop. My preference is to play in 3.5 hours or less.

  4. brooks williams

    Feb 8, 2013 at 1:20 am

    Would never happen but spread tee times. instead of teeing off a shot after the group, maybe wait a hole

    • Joey5Picks

      Jul 11, 2013 at 3:58 pm

      ENFORCED 10-minute tee times should be the norm. Results in better flow, fewer backups, less/no waiting.

  5. Max

    Feb 7, 2013 at 5:09 pm

    Where I live we’ve pretty much been forced to accept the slow play on the county courses and if you want to play close to course time you go farther out of the city. Less skilled and older golfers tend to take over the county courses and you end up having to play slow if for no other reason than ability and age. Unless you’re out there before 7 AM expect a 5.5 hour round. Some of the other counties around us are more proficient and will tell any group to speed up. I’ve been on courses where the ranger doesn’t even know who to tell to speed up, and probably because we’re the young group and she didn’t expect to get lip from us she told us…we kindly explained to her that we’re the 3rd group in line and our pace of play has nothing to do with the slow down on the course. Watched her drive away and just clear past the group that was slowing everyone else down…a group of older gentlemen that she just didn’t want to get in an argument with.

    But that’s life on the public courses, you want to play fast…play during the week.

  6. Kevin

    Feb 7, 2013 at 11:07 am

    I don’t see anything wrong with easier, more basic courses advertising themselves as a beginner friendly place in conjunction with more difficult courses advertising as a place where pace of play will be closely monitored. More really difficult courses, Riviera CC for one, ask people to prove a certain handicap to be able to play. There are different levels of softball leagues based on competitiveness, why not encourage golf courses to pro-actively guide players to the right courses for their skill levels? I am can say that I am not comfortable trying to take my kids out to play because I don’t want to get in people’s way.

  7. Chris Wehring

    Feb 7, 2013 at 9:56 am

    I don’t really have a problem with marshals enforcing a pace of play, but I do not want to spend my money on a green fee and a cart to have a marshal tell me that I need to skip a hole or two. I get a round done in around 4 hours. So, it’s not like I play that slowly. I think, if possible, slower groups just need to let others play through. Also, the quicker players tend to be rude also. So, I think that it needs to change from all ends. It is a gentleman’s sport after all.

  8. Tim

    Feb 7, 2013 at 9:10 am

    interesting article, particularly like your mention of tiger woods, as he was complaining about the group in front of him at Torrey Pines and rightly so, but I thought it was one of the worst cases of hypocrisy I have ever seen as he is often very slow, and you can be sure if he was coming down that stretch with only a one shot lead he would have been a lot slower, and no one would have dared say anything in case they upset him.

  9. old school harry

    Feb 7, 2013 at 8:53 am

    “Pace of play” is a misnomer. If It’s 4h 10m at your local track and you play in 4h 15m, you didn’t play at an ok or acceptable pace. You played at a pace that exceeded the absolute longest time allowable. Quit talking about stupid shit on the tee, put the pedal on the floor and hit to the middle of the green. Not one of you out there is good enough to fire at pins. Including myself. Al put it best “Lets go, while we’re young!”.

  10. George

    Feb 7, 2013 at 8:18 am

    Great article. By the above noted comments there are many side to the story. I am a part time marshall at a southern Ontario course. When on duty I go out of my way to drive the course backwards and when given the opportunity I meet all the players on the course. Our shifts are 6 hours so we have opportunity to usher the groups on and usher them off. If I have a group with a lost ball and it starts to take too long I politely ask them to drop and speed up and quite often will throw them one of my “found balls”. As a believer in the buddy marshall system who engages the groups I have only had one run in with a group and two of the clowns were inebriated. We strive to maintain 15 minutes hole to clock a 4 and a 1/2 hour round. It works quite well.
    Mind you the huge fund raising tournaments are another story – our marshalls might not as well be out there other than to make sure nobody gets hurt and stupidity doesn’t cause damage tour course.

  11. Buck

    Feb 7, 2013 at 8:07 am

    I have only been playing golf for a few years now, and I have played rounds of a full eighteen in as few as three hours and as many as six hours. I have to say, I agree that a slow pace is annoying and we should all take each other into consideration when playing, wheather it be level of experiance, group size or if someone in the group is having a bad round. We are all out there to enjoy the sport, but practice is for the driving range and if you lose a ball, so be it, if it bothers you that much, buy cheaper balls. Marshalls are there to do their job, they should push people to keep pace and be able to tell you why you are being held up. There are enough things in the game to get frustrated about, one of them shouldn’t be wheather you are getting done before dinner when you started before lunch.

  12. Todd

    Feb 7, 2013 at 12:11 am

    People need to play the correct tee boxes. Courses should make players play from certain tee boxes according to their handicap. Courses must invest in gps on the carts that update groups of their pace of play. It also, helps with hole lay-out and distances which all will speed up play. Players should not be told to skip holes during the round, but switch tee boxes if necessary. I have played at courses were the carts can be monitored by the gps and messages can be sent to the carts about pace of play and where to drive and park the cart. Next, adjust the order of groups being sent out if the tee times are right next to each other. Don’t send a group of tourists out in front of a group of regulars if they have back to back tee times. Other adjustments for 3 sums / 2 sums / ladies / Dads with young kids and ect… should be made by starters. Finally, play ready golf!!!!!!!

  13. chuck stone

    Feb 6, 2013 at 10:30 pm

    the city owned course i play along with putting in 1.3 million in a new watering system to speed up play where they had brush between some holes that was left to nature they have mowed it down so balls hit there can now be found… also some trees along side of a fairway have had the lower branches trimmed up to where you can now hit a ball when under the tree… another place to help speed up play is where there is creeks across the fairway that curved back and forth they have eliminated the erosion by tapering the sides of the creek which allows you to find the ball and sometimes allow you to hit a ball thats on the bank where before it would be a deep dropoff. they have been putting some smart thinking into how to speed up play especially when some folks will not give up on a ball.

  14. Frank

    Feb 6, 2013 at 8:10 pm

    This is an interesting discussion. As a newcomer to the sport of golf my experience with slow play comes from a different perspective… As a newbie your obviously not accomplished. You are not confident in determinng yardage distances & proper club selection and accuracy is but a dream. With all these hurdles already in place being scolded & insulted by faster accomplished players does nothing to endear the newbie to the game. When I play I can see who’s learning and trying their best. Pushing a newcomer to the game who has invested in green fees & equipment is hardly welcoming. Golf is already struggling to remain relevant. “Abusing” persons who are new or just trying the sport only drives them away (forever) and reinforces the exclusive nature of the sport.

  15. Jive

    Feb 6, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    The best policy I have seen was at a course where they have dime store clocks every three holes, you know the old school white face with black numbers, 12 inch diameter, minute and second hands, can run for 3 years off of AA battery. What they did was factor in a 4 hour round, and did the math to figure out how long it should take you to play the first 3 holes: eg. 40 minutes. So they set that clock backwards 40 minutes. So when you get to the fourth tee, the clock will say your tee time (because everyone remembers their tee time, but not how long it should take them to play the first 3 holes). And each clock along the way has been set the same way, so on the 7th tee the clock was set 1 hour and 20 minutes backwards. So if the clock shows a time after your tee time you are too slow. The policy reminds you every three holes so you know early on when you get off track. The clocks are easy to see and has a sign underneath reminding you that it should say your tee time.

    • ABgolfer2

      Feb 6, 2013 at 5:15 pm

      @ Jive – our best local muni does that on a few holes. I might adopt Brian’s idea though – play like a turtle and let the marshal be your forecaddie who finds your drives, rakes the bunkers, then fetches your favourite snacks from the clubhouse. That sounds pretty sweet! And all for the same price as the people who are keeping pace? Even sweeter.

      • Brian

        Feb 7, 2013 at 10:43 am

        It’s not that they’re playing like a turtle, it’s a lack of talent. No shot clock or heckling from rangers will get somebody that takes 8+ strokes a hole back on pace. If they need help, then help them, otherwise you’re not growing the game and your not maximizing the courses potential for income. You’re going to piss off one group of the other. The spotting/yardage suggestions are even more appropriate if your course has 1-2 holes that tend to be the bottleneck. Just park a ranger on those holes doing nothing but spotting drives and giving yardages. It’s worked at my club.

  16. hardcaliber

    Feb 6, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    Sooner or later, casual golf is going to have to move to a 9 hole format to keep up with the new modern lifestyle that is becoming more of the norm. Personally, I would love it if my 5 hour round took 4 hours, however the sad reality is that even 4 hours is a huge time when you are trying to balance work and family. I think that 2 hours is kind of a sweet spot as far as scheduling/time commitment goes, around the same time commitment as watching a movie or playing a few sets of tennis. A recreational activity that takes 2 hours is something that can be done on a regular basis, weekly or even multiple times a week. A recreational activity that takes half a day (4-5 hours) is just not something that most people have the luxury of enjoying on any sort of a regular basis anymore. Obviously, we all have varying schedules and time commitments, so opinions may vary widely. I would personally much rather play 9 holes at a relaxed pace than play 18 holes in a rush and be shepherded around by a crotchety old marshal.

  17. Brian

    Feb 6, 2013 at 2:03 pm

    The USGA can determine an acceptable pace for any given course. If a group is meeting that pace, especially on a busier weekend, and the group behind them is playing with their tails on fire, and there’s no more than a hole or two ahead of them, they should be left alone, IMO. If they’re not meeting that pace, then that should be addressed.

    If courses want to get serious about speed of play then they should teach rangers to go beyond policing and start aiding, especially groups that lack talent/experience (which is most often the cause of delays). Spot their drives, drive them to the next tee or their ball(if they’re walking), carry a GPS and get them a distance quickly, ask them what they want to eat/drink at turn and have it ready for them, whatever it takes to get that group caught back up to the pace, or the group in front of them. Then move on to the next group in line that is falling behind.

    • Mike

      Feb 6, 2013 at 4:15 pm

      I like the suggestions Brian makes and I would add to those with even raking the traps for players especially if they go from one fairway bunker to the next. Most of the marshals where I play spend their day riding around to the various water hazards fishing out balls for themselves. Too many men play tees way above their skill level also and fall behind at the #1 tee.

  18. ABgolfer2

    Feb 6, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    * can’t

  19. ABgolfer2

    Feb 6, 2013 at 2:00 pm

    Some people (not me of course) have never had to play quickly. They’ve never had to keep up with quicker players in the group of get left behind. I don’t see a long term solution for slow play. It used to be possible to avoid the turtles by playing very early, but now I play more at twilight. I played more partial rounds in 2012 due to running out of time than the previous 20 years combined. People say, “if you can devote a 6 hour block to golf then don’t play golf”. Okly dokly – I’ll go find something else to do – some place else to spend my money. My wife was suggesting we get a newer canoe and that’s about the same price as a membership. Decision made!

  20. David Bernstein

    Feb 6, 2013 at 1:49 pm

    A golf course can’t take green fees or membership dues from players and then force them to skip holes or play faster. If all golfers learned etiquette before they learned a swing, there would be no slow play. The PLAYER needs to understand what their position is on the golf course and how to react. Time can only be lost on a full golf course. So, if the first group of the day plays in 5 hours, then every other group is doomed to play in 5 hours or more. It just takes one group to spoil the day.

  21. Nick

    Feb 6, 2013 at 1:13 pm

    For many non-golfers, four hours is too long. For many of us avid golfer, four hour rounds are a dream, a thing which existed in better times. Reading the stories of slow play in this article raised my blood pressure and took me back to some very bad memories of waiting for slow players.

    God surely has a special place for men like Gene. Every course needs an old codger (and I say that with the utmost respect and admiration) like Gene to straighten slow groups out. Without them, Golf will continue to hemmorage players and more and more course will operate in the red till they shut down. Seriously, number one issue golf needs to address is not freaking anchored putting, COR on drivers, the ball – its pace of play.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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