Opinion & Analysis

The Day I Got Schooled by an Old Dude

Published

11 years ago

Jan 28, 2013

Oh, I remember THAT day quite well, as you will see. Almost 20 years in the past now and I remember every shot.

It was the day I was shown the difference between intelligently played, well-executed, GOOD golf and…well…whatever it was I was doing at the time. I remember that I was about 17 years old, was playing with a set of hand-me-down clubs and, while I had been playing on my high school’s golf team, had yet to break 80, let alone par. At that point in my life, golf was just for fun, not the harmful obsession it has become currently. Yes… I meant harmful. I know you know what I mean — in a good way.

Anyway, here is some lead-in information for you — everybody likes a little preface, yes?

Growing up in Fort Fairfield, Maine has SOME advantages when you are in high school. Notably, that the drinking age in nearby New Brunswick, Canada is only 19, and everybody and his sister has a fake ID lying handy. So Saturday night is the night where we… um… stay inside and play board games and NOT go to the bars and clubs across the border until 2 a.m. or sometimes 7 a.m. Right? You noticed I said “not,” right?

As it so happened, after my buddies and I finished playing Monopoly (or at least Boardwalk) until 4 a.m., it was now my turn to play designated driver to get everyone home — a responsibility I had loathed all evening long. After all, Boardwalk games can get pretty intense… as you know, and some get spent from the intensity of sedentary competition and in need of help home. So, after dropping off the last of this ill-conceived carpool (you know, the guy who won Park Place?) I found myself deciding between sleep… or golf.

Sunday is pretty slow up in Aroostook County, Maine. It is (I think literally) the section of the United States with the oldest population percentage to be found. Most folks are either off to church or waiting outside the one restaurant left in town to have someone else cook them breakfast. At 5 a.m., Fort Fairfield is a still a ghost town, more or less.

So, I decided I would play golf. I figured I could go out and play nine holes and be back before my parents became unwilling to cook me breakfast. That, and the nice note I left, “Woke up early, out playing golf… be back soon” would SURELY cover up the clandestine board-game sessions my friends and I had the night before. Surely.

So, I pulled the clubs out of the garage, threw them into the back of my pickup truck (yeah, four guys in a two-seater for an hour… not fun) and off to the golf course I went. It was 5 a.m., but because Aroostook Valley Country Club is really in Canada, it was actually 6 a.m. course time. A half-hour before the course officially opened, but I knew the assistant pro and he just waived me up to the tee where, to my surprise, I found another gentlemen just setting down his clubs. I figured no one would have been at the course at that hour, but I was wrong.

The elder gentleman (to be referred to affectionately as Old Dude for the remainder of this article), looked at me in something that might have resembled disbelief and disgust all rolled into one, and gave a look to the pro, who shrugged his shoulders and walked off quickly trying to avert his eyes from the cold glare Old Dude was giving him. I thought to myself, “Oh boy, another grouchy old fart. Maybe he will let me play through.”

As I approach the tee, expectations high (old dudes always play slow right?) he asks me, “And who might you be?” I told him my name without him even looking up to acknowledge the information. Old Dude, I was betting, was a retired potato farmer, and having worked during various harvest breaks (another Aroostook Country tradition where kids take three weeks off from school at the end of September and beginning of October to help out on various farms and come back sporting about $1,000 to $2,000 at the tender age of 12 or so) knew that you don’t mess around with that crowd or get pushy. A man I used to work for could, in his 60s, stack two potato barrels full of ROCKS on top of each other and dead lift them; you know, to make the point with unruly farm hands. I shook his hand once at the end of a season and cracked a bone in my third knuckle!

But, I digress.

So again, I had stated my name, and old dude says, “Yep, I know your father. Milton isn’t it?” My father had been a federal loan officer and worked with farmers in the area.

“Yes, sir,” I said.

“Okay, well pick up those clubs and keep up. I don’t like people behind me.” Oh rats! There goes breakfast back home! He is going to putter around and this will take forever. He was kind of an odd sight too — he appeared to be at least 70, but was wearing jeans, a pair of (real) spikes that looked older than me, no glove and a well-worn cardigan sweater (even though it was late May). He was also carrying his bag, and I didn’t know too many folks that age that didn’t ride carts at our club. Also, his leather MacGregor bag appeared to be pretty old and the faces of his irons were browned at the bottom. In hindsight, there were sooo many signs that I missed that day!

Standing up to the tee (uphill par 4), he gives me the honor: “Tee it up kid… we don’t have all morning.” I hit the nicest slice about two bills down the right side, saved only by the fact that it sliced into the No. 18 fairway, so I still had a look at the green. Old Dude steps up with his persimmon driver and stripes it down the middle to a place I had yet to reach, even at my age on a straight drive… with a metal driver. Caught me totally by surprise, too, because his swing was about half as long as mine and he didn’t even swing hard at it. Sooo…. note to self:

Lesson No. 1: Compact swing and good tempo are better than a haphazard flail.

Who knew?

Two more strokes for me, and I am on the green, which I proceed to three-jack (or three-putt in layman’s terms). Old Dude barely misses his putt for birdie, and walks away with par. On to the second hole – a short par four, blind tee shot over the crest of a small hill.

Old Dude now has the honor. This isn’t a hard hole, but trees do line the sides of it. Old dude pulls what appears to be a semi-rusted 1-iron and fades it off the left side into the fairway. I stand up with driver again and flail it into a collection of trees down the right. As we were walking off the second tee, Old Dude says to me, “You been drinkin’ boy? Helps if you change your clothes once you get home. I can smell it on you even if it ain’t on your breath.”

Whoa! I figured I was going to get sassed into oblivion for that (I should have been), but he just picked up his bag and walked off. As I got to my ball in the trees, Old Dude yells over, “I might have an ax in my truck if you need it.” Great, getting heckled by a man four times my age, first thing in the morning, too. A chip out and pitch on later and I have a 20-footer for par. Old Dude throws a dart into the flag and taps in (with the leading edge of his wedge…grrr) for birdie. I three-jack this green as well. Already I am five strokes down to him in two holes. Nice job, Dan. Not!

Lesson No. 2: Strategy trumps distance.

So, there is no way I was going to beat him now. I never really felt like I wanted to play AGAINST him when we started, but he heckled me, so I was determined to beat him on at least a few holes and get back the honor. Moving onto the par 5 third hole, dogleg left and downhill. I had reached before with a good drive and a 9 iron.

“Go ahead and take the honor while I debate with nature,” he said to me.

OK, time to hit a good drive, and I did. Hit a corker — nice draw that cut the corner. Perfect flight. OK, Old Dude, top that. Old Dude, however, comes back to the tee and pulls a 5-iron and hits it right into the middle of the fairway, still within sight at the top of the dogleg.

Um, what?

My mentality at that time was that any par-five was a two-hitter, and he just hit a mid iron?? Why?

So, we crest the hill and he hits another 5-iron down (to what appeared to be) dead left and short of the green. OK, so he saw my big drive and that must have rocked him a little. Now I just hit it on and get my eagle or birdie. Perfect strategy; failed execution. I thinned my shot, which, to my credit, still ran about 190 yards down hill and into the front green-side bunker. Old Dude has a wry smile at my misfortune, and calmly walks down to his ball and wedges it to the green where it stops within about six feet of the cup (yeah, he made it). I blade my bunker shot and take four more strokes to get down.

He tells me afterward, “You should give up trying to reach this in two. Hit down where I did where you have a clean shot to the pin.”

Um, what?

Lesson No. 3: Position trumps ego.

Hole No. 4, a steep downhill par 3 with a listed yardage of 170. It only plays about a 7 or 8-iron, though. Old Dude steps up with (that darn) 5-iron, and literally chips a shot down off the tee, which runs almost the full distance down to the green. No practice swings, no checking aim-line, no pretense; just drops the ball down onto the turf and chips it. Ball ends up about 18 feet past the pin, but with an uphill putt. I hit a flush 9-iron that the morning wind blows into the bunker on the high side of the green. From then on, it is a repeat of the previous hole (bladed wedge). Old Dude casually takes his two-putt while whistling some made-up tune for my enjoyment.

Um, what?

Lesson No. 4: Don’t make things harder than they have to be (And don’t embarrass your family name by blading two wedges in a row with a witness).

Okay, onto the par-5 No. 5. Dogleg right, to an uphill green. Old Dude still has the honor, so he pulls a persimmon 3-wood out (club looked older than me) and carves a nice pull/fade around the corner. Didn’t throw down a tee this time either. Just drops it down on the bare turf and punches down on it — you could see some turf fly. Ball got maybe 25 feet off the ground and ran like it stole something. I was now tired of hitting it in the junk so I pulled a 3-iron. I pulled it left, down the improper side of the hole and the ball rolled into a grove of trees, the only advantage being that the brush was cut away from the trees so I had an opening.

I punched out to about 8-iron distance from the green. Old Dude, however, was feeling lucky and hits that persimmon driver off the deck just short of the green. Chips it up and down for birdie. I, well, I am not going to tell you what I did on the rest of the hole or you would lose all respect for me. (If you haven’t already!)

Lesson No. 5: Patience is key, know when to go for it and when not to.

At this point, I have lost all face with Old Dude. I could see him make looks like Tiger Woods did when he was paired with Phil Mickelson during the Ryder Cup. (He hit it WHERE?). We hadn’t exchanged a word since the third hole, until he asked me, “How is Milt doin’? He still working for the Farmer’s Home Administration?” Yes, I replied. “Is he teaching you golf?” No, I said. “You go over and ask Sean (the assistant pro at the time) for some lessons. Watching you play is taking years off my life.” He gave a little laugh with it in a transparent attempt to soften the blow, although I knew he totally meant what he said.

Ouch.

But, there was something so pure about the simple honesty of the statement that I didn’t get too “teen” about the way he said it. I actually did go to the assistant pro and take some lessons after that. It was beneficial.

Lesson No. 6: Swallow your pride and recognize good advice when it comes your way — just only take it from good players.

Sixth hole: downhill par 4, dogleg left. Old Dude takes out (that rotten) 5-iron and hits another chip and run down the hill, and then hits a half 8-iron onto the raised green. Got a little unlucky in that he blocked it a little right and had a sharp downhill putt. I hit a nice drive with my (then) normal draw and found myself at the base of the raised green. Turf was wet down there, but I (luckily?) mis-hit the shot high on the face of my wedge, so it still managed to get on the green, resulting in my first par of the day. Old Dude (apparently on purpose) toes his putt down hill off the fringe that rims the cup and rolls about 10 feet further than he deserved. He missed the come-back putt and made bogey. I figured I would see some kind of emotional outburst, given how gruff he had been before, but no. He just picks his ball out of the cup and moves on to the next hole, no different than when he made birdie.

Lesson No. 7: No one cares if you are mad; don;t waste the energy or lose focus

Hole No. 7 – short par 4 with a couple humps in the fairway that drag the ball into the left rough. I finally had the honor under my own steam! Mission accomplished, until my ball found the aforementioned “wash rack” that drained my shot into the left rough behind a bush, essentially blocking me out. Old Dude turns dead right on the tee box and hits his shot (with some iron) about 30 yards right of the fairway onto a shelf in the rough that was trampled down due to the proximity to the Porta-John. Pretty much the only flat lie on the hole. From there he hits a short iron onto the green and two putts. I hack out and bogey out. The honor is now lost much faster than it arrived.

Lesson No. 8: The fairway always isn’t fair. Hit it to the spot that positions you best.

Ahh, the closing stretch. The eighth hole is a short, 155-yard par 3 that is slightly uphill and into a light breeze. Old Dude pulls a 4-iron! Whaaat? Come on! The way he had been hitting the ball, I knew that was way too much club for him. He ended up taking a half swing and hit it to about 15 feet. I totally underestimated the wind, and the uphill part, and tried to power an 8-iron onto the green. The good news is that I only came up about 10 yards short rather than the 20 or so I probably should have. I got lucky on a chip and got up and down, and Old Dude burned the edge of the cup with his putt so we both walked away with par, one of us happier than the other, however.

Lesson No. 9: Don’t be stupid. Hit the shot the conditions require and be informed by more than just yardage.

Now came the final leg of our nine-hole adventure. One of the tougher holes on the course: An uphill par 4 with a dogleg left, into an elevated green, guarded by trees on either side. The green slopes hard towards the fairway. Old Dude steps up with his driver and hits a huge hook, but starts it over the right-side trees. At first I thought he just blocked it, but then it took a hard turn left and dove into the fairway where it ran out quite a bit. I got lucky with another draw and cut off a bit of the left corner into the fairway. I cleared him by about 10 yards, only due to the line. Old Dude could move the ball!

At this point, we are nearing the green with the porch of the clubhouse being nearby. The “breakfast club” was now present on the porch, enjoying its meal and we now had an audience. Old Dude is in the middle of the fairway and hits one of his punchy little irons, which lands in the throat short of the green and runs up onto the front of the green, leaving an uphill putt. I was on the left side of the fairway with eyes for the flag to impress my new audience (who cared more for their ham and eggs than my shabby game. I was 17, remember).

I had to carry an edge of a greenside trap, but I only had 8 iron into the green. Alright, I decided I would hit a cool looking little spinner into the green near the flag and let everyone see that I could back up a ball. (Yeah, I could slice and blade wedges out of bunkers, but still back-up approach shots on greens. Don’t ask me how that works. It still makes no sense to me 20 years later).

So I hit my little spinner over the trap and it lands near the flag just as planned, and then spins back just as planned, and keeps coming back the full length of the green and into the deep greenside bunker which never should have been in play in the first place (not as planned). Old Dude takes his easy two-putt for a round of 2-under, 34 on our nine. I blade another wedge (which flies the green and hits the concession stand at the halfway point – a 130-yard lob wedge!) and not so calmly take an upside-down six in front of my unofficial fans.

Lesson No. 10: Good spin is not always backspin, and don’t play stupid shots to impress people who never cared in the first place.

At this point, you couldn’t have paid me to keep playing that round. I just hung my head, shook hands with Old Dude, and walked back to the clubhouse to mope and sulk and hopefully get a few of the cart girls working at the tables to feel bad for me. That was the first time where I had played golf with a legitimately good player. I totally underestimated him at the beginning because of age, appearances and gear, and I never should have. He was 10 times the player I was. Probably still is; guys like that live forever!

It was depressing at first, being handed my lunch and shown how far I had to progress to be any good at the game, but was also the impetus for me to get better. I got over that experience pretty quick; I took the lessons Old Dude suggested I take from the assistant pro. I also went out and tried to learn all those punchy irons like Old Dude did. I actually figured out how to hit them in time. I also changed my course strategy to allow for more creativity, and more ease of shot making.

Mind you, 1994 is pretty much the beginning years of the Internet, and there wasn’t yet all the knowledge to be readily found as there is now. Also, there wasn’t the proliferation of golf books to be found back then, at least not where I lived — the nearest mall was three hours away! Heck, I didn’t even know who Ben Hogan was back then! Pretty sad, huh? But it was this experience that led to increased interest, practice and research, and (eventually) an overall better game. The one thing I truly regret about the situation (apart from creating a lingering odor of fail around the course that is still present two decades later) is that I never got Old Dude’s name. He kept playing after nine holes while I sulked my way off the green.

I was a little uncomfortable around him, as you likely have gathered. I assumed he was a farmer from the area. If you have ever met one of these gentlemen before, they can be a demanding and intimidating lot –- years of physical labor with every season being the difference between a livelihood and the poorhouse. Makes for tough characters, and when you are 17, sometimes the best you can do is keep your mouth shut, which I did. I mentioned Old Dude to my dad, but he unfortunately couldn’t put a name to him.

There is one more lesson to be learned here, and that is if you don’t vary whom you play with from time to time, you will never have the type of experiences like the one I just shared with you. You don’t have to ditch your friends, but every once in a while, you might consider asking to play a round with an unknown “old dude” and learn your own lessons. Get schooled GolfWRX!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

4 days ago

Apr 9, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

RELATED: Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

Published

5 days ago

Apr 8, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.

We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.

Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.

Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.

Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.

Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.

Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Past Winners at the Masters

2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
2016: Danny Willett (-5)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
2013: Adam Scott (-9)
2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Augusta National

Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
Corey Conners (+0.99)
Shane Lowry (+0.88)
Tony Finau (+0.85)
Austin Eckroat (+0.85)

Course History

More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.

In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.

Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):

Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
Jon Rahm (+2.28)
Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
Justin Rose (+1.85)
Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
Russell Henley (+1.60)

Par 4 Scoring Average

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
Chris Kirk (+3.92)
Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
Peter Malnati (+3.93)
Xander Schauffele (+3.93)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
Patrick Reed (+0.61)
Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
Lucas Glover (+0.51)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)

Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass

The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:

Justin Rose (+1.43)
Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
Cameron Smith (+0.70)
Patrick Reed (+0.70)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).

Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model

Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Shane Lowry
Will Zalatoris
Corey Conners
Si Woo Kim
Rory McIlroy
Stephan Jaeger
Jordan Spieth
Chris Kirk
Keegan Bradley
Wyndham Clark
Sahith Theegala
Russell Henley
Collin Morikawa
Matt Fitzpatrick
Patrick Reed

My 2023 Pick:

Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.

Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.

Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.

As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.

While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.

2024 The Masters Picks

Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.

Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.

Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.

In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.

Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.

Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.

Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)

Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.

While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.

“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.

I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.

So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”

As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.

Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.

Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.

Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)

Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.

Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.

In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.

Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.

Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)

With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.

It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.

Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.

I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.

Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)

Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.

At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.

Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.

Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.

Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)

Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.

Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.

Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.

(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)

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Opinion & Analysis

The 22 players who can win the Masters

Published

5 days ago

Apr 8, 2024

Rich Hunt

Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.

This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.

Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.

Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)

Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas

I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:

Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:

Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka

Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor

Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.

I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.

That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)

Here’s my personal top-10 picks:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)

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