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The Wedge Guy: Maybe you play harder golf courses than the pros

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Watching PGA Tour golf has become something I don’t do a lot these days. Why? Well, for two reasons.

First, watching the best players in the world regularly run roughshod over pussycat golf courses just isn’t that entertaining for me. Did you realize that the top five players finished 101 under par at the Northern Trust? And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par!

Just proves that if you give them wide soft fairways, receptive and smooth greens, and no wind, they can simply tear it up.

The other is when they run into a “US Open-like” golf course like Olympia Fields this past weekend, it seems to become a putting contest as the field struggles mightily to break par.

The puzzling thing to me is just what was it that made Olympia Fields so tough?

From what I read, the fairways are “as narrow as 30 yards” on some holes. So . . . aren’t these guys supposed to be the best shotmakers in the world? From the stats I’ve reviewed, very few of these guys were able to hit even half the fairways. Just to share my perspective on this, my own little country club has fairways much narrower – some as slender as 17 yards, and only 3-4 as wide as 30.

For the best players in the world, 30 yards seems pretty generous.

But then there’s the length thing. For such a “difficult” golf course, they were able to reach both par five holes in two – if they could hit a solid drive in the fairway. And of the other 16 holes, only two of them required approach shots with more than a 7- or 8-iron, and at least 6-7 of those holes routinely gave them approach shots of less than 120 yards. That’s sand wedge range for these guys.

So, with each reachable par-fives, and at least 20-25 other wedge approaches, 4 under wins? Of course, we saw our share of approach shots that covered flags, but we also witnessed a large number of short irons and wedge shots that were uninspiring, in addition to drives that found uncharted zip codes.

It seems to me these guys would be much more precise in their shotmaking. Guess I was spoiled by growing up watching Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and the like, shooting great scores while routinely hitting long and middle irons into greens.

But here’s the point of today’s post. I think most of you are playing a tougher golf course than these PGA Tour professionals regularly encounter, if you measure a course’s difficulty by the length of your approach shots.

Think back to your most recent rounds and count how many approach shots you hit with a short iron or wedge? Not nearly as many as you saw this past weekend, I’ll bet. If you think about it this way, you’ll realize you are really playing a much tougher course day in and day out than these guys do. So give yourself a break, OK?

Oh, and one other thing that really puzzled me about Olympia Fields–did you notice how many putts kept coming up short? I was shocked by that, as none of the pin placements seemed to be that treacherous that a putt that passed the hole would get away from them.

But in the end, it turned into a putting bomb contest, with Dustin Johnson draining a long one to get into a playoff, and Jon Rahm doing it right back to him on the first playoff hole. Guess if you really like to watch putting, these guys do put on a helluva show.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Pingback: The Wedge Guy: Lessons from The Players Championship – GolfWRX

  2. Don Ho

    Sep 16, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    I always say all courses scoring and playability is relative. If one says the course is easy and not a challenge well then that person should be scoring in the 70s or par golf (for amateurs).If one takes this view then all courses are playable no matter what tee box or length. Bottom line you have to have “game”, scrambling, putting, GIRs etc.

  3. Terry Koehler

    Sep 8, 2020 at 12:06 pm

    A healthy male below age 40 should be able to hit the ball 250+ yards. Only about 20% can. Gross

  4. Jeff Williams

    Sep 5, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    Wouldn’t you think someone in golf business would keep it to himself and certainly not write an article about NOT watching golf on TV.

    • Shallowface

      Sep 14, 2020 at 3:01 pm

      Most of the players speak the same way, which is interesting because if we all felt that way (and I do), professional golf would cease to exist in its current form. The players would have to put up and play for their own money. Which might rekindle my interest.

  5. Lanh Le

    Sep 5, 2020 at 10:20 am

    DUMB ARTICLE. PLAY OLYMPIA and tell me its easier LOL.

  6. Evan

    Sep 5, 2020 at 5:14 am

    Interesting article Terry. Given the fairly unimpressive tour average of 60% fairways hit you have to question how penal courses are set up for regular tour stops. Looking at the stats it seems like players are hitting less fairways than years back, which given the big improvements clubs and the ball, is surprisingly. Players have maybe worked out that power trumps accuracy and developed their games accordingly. It would be interesting to see who would prosper from the tour having a policy of tightening up courses and putting more of a premium on accuracy from the tee.

    • Bob.

      Sep 8, 2020 at 6:11 pm

      The people that would benefit are the golfers with upright swings. Ala jack back in the day.

  7. Simms

    Sep 5, 2020 at 2:49 am

    Two choices enjoy the heck out of golf or work your rear off and be as gifted as all PRO athletes are. 99.99% of us are not PRO golf gifted, not even close and if your over 25 your chance of being good enough to be called a PRO are about 1 in ten million (OK better odds then the lottery) that said please you and all your friends on the public courses please play tee box’s that fit your ability and for most men that is the white or middle tees, over 55 move up to the gold on the harder courses so we all can enjoy less then 4 and half hour rounds.

  8. Jeff

    Sep 5, 2020 at 12:52 am

    When talking about conditions, a run of the mill amateur course might be tougher in the sense that the greens aren’t as true, the fairways don’t roll the same and have more divots etc. However, those things aside, length of club into the green on your second shot has nothing to do with course difficulty. It isn’t like the pros are hitting wedges because they play short courses. They are hitting wedges because they have learned that if they get really good at scrambling and putting, a wayward tee shot that goes 330yards is recoverable. A lot of the PGA players can overpower courses because of the fitness, the equipment and the golf balls. Make no mistake, our courses aren’t tougher, they are tough for different reasons. I have a driver swing speed of 115-118mph. Length isn’t my problem. I could play pro courses and be hitting 8i-LW in on many of my second shots on their courses. I’d still get eaten alive any time I missed a fairway or a GIR on their courses where as they save par after most of their bad shots. They aren’t even playing the same game as us regardless of what course they’re on.

  9. TS

    Sep 4, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Long course, hard fairways, long rough, and especially rock hard greens that don’t hold shots from the rough and traps.

    Bay Hill, Presidents Cup. Same thing.

  10. Jeff

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:57 am

    Any tour player will confirm, they would rather hit an #8 iron from the rough than a #6 iron from the middle of the fairway!

    • Frank

      Sep 5, 2020 at 6:57 pm

      Ok, according to TrackMan averages, the average 8 iron vs 6 iron for pros is 183 yards vs 160 yards. Now let’s go to Mark Broadie’s strokes gained distance chart for 183 yards from fairway vs 160 yards from rough. How about that, pros average 3.23 strokes from 160 yards in the rough compared to 3.09 strokes from 183 yards in the fairway! Turns out your opinion is wrong.

      • geohogan

        Sep 8, 2020 at 10:25 am

        Im guessing AVERAGE doesnt mean Olympia Fields or US Open “rough”
        but the average course they play on the PGA.

      • Jeremy

        Sep 18, 2020 at 8:20 pm

        His opinion isn’t wrong, nor is it an opinion. It is an unconfirmed statement. He said tour players would rather hit a shot. Not that trackman would rather hit a shot. If you’re gonna come in here all lawyer style, get your ducks in order.

    • Prime21

      Sep 8, 2020 at 12:57 am

      18th hole, Sunday, US Open, given this choice EVERY player would choose the 6 iron from the fairway. This take couldn’t be more wrong.

      • Brian

        Sep 23, 2020 at 4:55 pm

        “I’m hitting it as far as I possibly can up there,” he said after a practice round Tuesday at the U.S. Open. “Even if it’s in the rough, I can still get it to the front edge or the middle of the green with pitching wedges or 9-irons. That’s the beauty of my length and that advantage.”

        “There’s this point of no return where if you’re around 180 and you try and get faster, but it gets that much more drastically off-line, it really doesn’t help you that much. You don’t gain that much. But once you start getting 195 to 200 to 205, even though you’re missing it that far off-line, you’re so far up close to the green, it’s too big of an advantage to take away.” – U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau

  11. Jeff

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am

    He started all these companies. Besides Ben Hogan and they went bankrupt. Are any still around? Any PGA pros playing his product?

  12. Terry Koehler

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am

    Thanks to all of you for these comments. Quite apparently I missed the mark in making my point, as I was certainly not comparing “our” games to the skill and talent the pros exhibit every week. That would be foolish as these guys have power, skill and talent that is borderline mystical. That said, the data published on PGATour.com verifies that they are not fairways-hit and GIR machines. But then, with these short games and putting skills, it is quite apparent they don’t have to be.

    The point I apparently failed to make is that these guys are so long and powerful — and have such magical short games and deadly putting skills — they can reduce most any golf course to a driver/wedge contest to a degree. I was also trying to bring to attention that, for the golfers who made the cut, Olympia Fields was nearly a thousand shots harder, collectively. I found that fascinating . . . I’m just sayin’.

    I was also trying to point out that, in contrast, we recreational golfers routinely hit mid-irons or longer into the green, which is much harder to do, based merely on the physics of golf clubs that have longer shafts and less loft than wedges and short irons. So, yes, in respect to your strength/length profile, you ARE playing a more challenging course than these guys do week in and week out.

    Thanks to those of you who “got it” as to the point I was trying to make, and my apologies to those of you who didn’t.

    • HP

      Sep 4, 2020 at 11:57 am

      Got it and also most trouble is in play for us.

    • Jay

      Sep 14, 2020 at 6:52 pm

      Great observation Terry, spot on. Your point wasn’t lost on me buddy.

  13. golfer

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:40 am

    LOL 160 shanks.. says it all

  14. geohogan

    Sep 4, 2020 at 8:26 am

    IMO, most are missing the point; that being toughness of the course is relative to your ability.

    When a 10 hdcp plays a course where he or she is hitting mid to long irons to par 4
    it is a tougher test than for a pro who it hitting wedge on most par 4.

    The writer isnt saying ams are better than pros. He isnt even saying courses ams play are tougher than courses pros play. IMO the writer is talking about relative difficulty relative to the golfers abilty. Its nuance thinking beyond the abilty of most, unfortunately.

    • Conner

      Sep 4, 2020 at 11:21 am

      It would be a lot easier to say “golfing is more difficult for someone that sucks compared to a pro”

  15. Eric

    Sep 4, 2020 at 12:01 am

    was this satire? Let me guess, the guy who wrote this article is the first to tell you to tuck your shirt in or turn your music down on the course? Absolutely painful read.

    • Shallowface

      Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 pm

      How you can play with that music blaring is beyond me. Oh, you’re not out there to play any kind of decent golf. My bad!

      Take the music to the park, save your money and stay out of the way of those of us who are out there to actually play some golf.

      And yeah, stay off my lawn. Did it for you. For the one zillionth time.

  16. Ivan

    Sep 3, 2020 at 11:49 pm

    Another example of the pure failure to have developed sufficient analytical skills to make a reasonable conclusion. Here, it’s innocent enough as it’s just golf and this is just a bad golf article. Elsewhere this problem is more dire.

    We don’t need everyone to be PhDs, but even high schools should turn out better thinkers than this.

    • Bob Pegram

      Sep 26, 2020 at 2:55 am

      A good conclusion from Terry’s analysis is to make the rough severe enough at PGA Tour events that hitting a drive in it is a disincentive. It needs to be more of a penalty than it is on many PGA Tour courses. Making the fairways narrower would help too. Terry’s other conclusion is that we should all practice our short games a lot more. That takes pressure off of shots into the greens. A shot that misses the green doesn’t lead to a bogey when you have sharp short game.
      By the way, Terry makes good clubs. Breaking into the existing golf market with a new golf club company is not easy no matter how good your clubs are.

  17. Bill

    Sep 3, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    So basically tour courses are easier because the guys that play them are better at golf? Horrible take.

  18. Teddy

    Sep 3, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    SO its no good when they tear the course up, but also no good when its too tough and becomes a putting contest?? DO you only watch football games where the teems combine for between 27 and 29 points??

  19. Alex

    Sep 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm

    You are so far off it’s unbelievable. Any tour player would beat the tar out of the best am at any country club. Here’s the long and short of it. Brooks tore the hardest public course apart for 3 of 4 days last year. Tiger routinely brought big boy tracks to their knees. Every week someone you’ve never heard of shoots 60 something where plus 3s and 4s would hope to break 80. Bad lies and perfect lies aside, there’s no comparison. Ever see where a pga missed green ends up? The hardest collection area possible. Not to mention none of us hit 4 iron 240 and can hit 1/10 the shots they can. It’s a different game and those guys are so much more skilled I think I’d have just as good of a chance playing in the NFL as on tour as a scratch player. They are so much better than the average club scratch that it’s chess and checkers. The only advantage they have is pre covid having spectators find errant tee shots. Can’t believe you’d be naive enough to spit in the face of greatness and neglect how much more talented those guys are. 1 word Bellerive…2018 PGA. I looked at my buddy and said this place would chew me up and spit me out. That wasn’t even a US Open.

    • Factsarebiased

      Sep 4, 2020 at 10:56 am

      You are very mistaken if you think any tour player will beat the tar out of the best am at their club. There are some very very very good ams out there in the world with plus handicaps as good or better then a number of tour pros. Am at the club I work at got to a +6.4. He could put a whooping on say a Zach Johnson or a Every.

      • Ian

        Sep 29, 2020 at 9:04 am

        This seems like a wildly inaccurate conclusion. You’re talking about the most elite players in the world and you’re saying your local +6 can compete with a two time major champion??? Your typical tour pro carries a +6 handicap while playing golf courses the don’t even have an accurate course rating for the difficulty in which they are playing it during a tournament week. Then account for the added length the pros play, the firmer/faster greens not to mention tournament pressure. I will happily wager you anything I own that if your AM would not sniff competing in a pga tour event. That’s the reason why the most elite collegiate golfers in the world rarely make cuts when they get into events.

  20. Jared Allen

    Sep 3, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    I cant believe this article became published. This sounds like a high schooler wrote it who realizes he won’t be as good as the pros, so he puts the people ahead of them down.

  21. Brian

    Sep 3, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    Agree 100% with this article. Nothing more boring than watching a tournament where 10-15 players are -20 or better. Huge difference between having pro talent and the ability to just overpower a golf course.

    Watching Driver/Gap Wedge on every hole equals ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz…

  22. John

    Sep 3, 2020 at 4:44 pm

    Wow. As other comments have pointed out, this is a ridiculously terrible take. No golfer should ever base a course’s difficulty off of how long the approach shots are. That’s just an absurd standard that disregards literally every single factor of what makes a course difficult. I seriously hope you weren’t paid to miss the mark this badly.

  23. Matt

    Sep 3, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    I skimmed thru this thinking it was another swing-and-miss attempt at satire. I went back to confirm it is and…. it’s not.

  24. Roy

    Sep 3, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    About the worst article I have ever read on here and pretty sure the author knows little about golf and less about data abalysis

    “And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par” – WOW – so the people playing good shot good scores?? But how good?? 673 under par for 70 players equals 9.6 under par per player, over 4 rounds. So just below 2.5 under par per round. Add in the players who didnt make the cut and you will get a per round average of 1.5 under par.

    So the best players in the world – those playing in the playoffs – average right about 1.5 under par over 4 days and his point is the course is too easy?? That its not as hard as what “we” play……

  25. Alex

    Sep 3, 2020 at 1:13 pm

    This is one of the worst takes I have read in a long time.

  26. John

    Sep 3, 2020 at 1:07 pm

    I dont like watching formula 1. The roads dont have pedestrians and stoplights. If they had to drive in my conditions I would for sure be a better driver. The roads by my house have potholes, and I drive them every day. Id like to see the foumula one drivers do that with their sissy cars and lack of clearance. Heaven forbid we optimize a track a course where they could showcase their otherworldly talent…..

  27. Shallowface

    Sep 3, 2020 at 12:24 pm

    It’s certainly true when it comes to pin placements and how difficult short putts are as a result. The USGA advises that holes should be cut in an area “as flat as possible” 3 feet around the cup, but what we see are holes cut right on the edge of ridges on two tiered greens. I often have what I call “McDonald’s Putts” from 3 or 4 feet because the line I have to play resembles an arch. You never see this on television. In fact, when they use a feature that shows the line, I am struck by how straight most 20 footers are on Tour. SV677 is right on the money when it comes to rough and bunkers, and most of the places I play I’m plugging tee shots in drowned fairways even in August. The game would be a lot easier if I got 50 yards of roll as I routinely see on Tour. Throw in “optimized” equipment and one concludes the pros are not only not playing the same game we play, they are playing a MUCH easier game. And it’s one I am not impressed with nor have any interest in watching.

  28. SV677

    Sep 3, 2020 at 11:56 am

    The fact amateurs hit longer clubs into a green goes to the question of playing the right length tees. However, were amateurs do play harder courses is the rough and bunkers. How often have you been in the rough with the ball down and the ground as hard as a cart path? Yes, it’s easy to hit a recovery out of that. Or, as I did today, try hitting bunker shots where again the ground is like a cart path with a thin layer of sand on it. Now I realize not all courses are like the above. However, there are more courses with these conditions than high end country clubs like pros play that are immaculate.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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