Opinion & Analysis
The Wedge Guy: Maybe you play harder golf courses than the pros
Watching PGA Tour golf has become something I don’t do a lot these days. Why? Well, for two reasons.
First, watching the best players in the world regularly run roughshod over pussycat golf courses just isn’t that entertaining for me. Did you realize that the top five players finished 101 under par at the Northern Trust? And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par!
Just proves that if you give them wide soft fairways, receptive and smooth greens, and no wind, they can simply tear it up.
The other is when they run into a “US Open-like” golf course like Olympia Fields this past weekend, it seems to become a putting contest as the field struggles mightily to break par.
The puzzling thing to me is just what was it that made Olympia Fields so tough?
From what I read, the fairways are “as narrow as 30 yards” on some holes. So . . . aren’t these guys supposed to be the best shotmakers in the world? From the stats I’ve reviewed, very few of these guys were able to hit even half the fairways. Just to share my perspective on this, my own little country club has fairways much narrower – some as slender as 17 yards, and only 3-4 as wide as 30.
For the best players in the world, 30 yards seems pretty generous.
But then there’s the length thing. For such a “difficult” golf course, they were able to reach both par five holes in two – if they could hit a solid drive in the fairway. And of the other 16 holes, only two of them required approach shots with more than a 7- or 8-iron, and at least 6-7 of those holes routinely gave them approach shots of less than 120 yards. That’s sand wedge range for these guys.
So, with each reachable par-fives, and at least 20-25 other wedge approaches, 4 under wins? Of course, we saw our share of approach shots that covered flags, but we also witnessed a large number of short irons and wedge shots that were uninspiring, in addition to drives that found uncharted zip codes.
It seems to me these guys would be much more precise in their shotmaking. Guess I was spoiled by growing up watching Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and the like, shooting great scores while routinely hitting long and middle irons into greens.
But here’s the point of today’s post. I think most of you are playing a tougher golf course than these PGA Tour professionals regularly encounter, if you measure a course’s difficulty by the length of your approach shots.
Think back to your most recent rounds and count how many approach shots you hit with a short iron or wedge? Not nearly as many as you saw this past weekend, I’ll bet. If you think about it this way, you’ll realize you are really playing a much tougher course day in and day out than these guys do. So give yourself a break, OK?
Oh, and one other thing that really puzzled me about Olympia Fields–did you notice how many putts kept coming up short? I was shocked by that, as none of the pin placements seemed to be that treacherous that a putt that passed the hole would get away from them.
But in the end, it turned into a putting bomb contest, with Dustin Johnson draining a long one to get into a playoff, and Jon Rahm doing it right back to him on the first playoff hole. Guess if you really like to watch putting, these guys do put on a helluva show.
- LIKE495
- LEGIT124
- WOW13
- LOL33
- IDHT7
- FLOP35
- OB15
- SHANK293
19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
- LIKE19
- LEGIT3
- WOW1
- LOL0
- IDHT1
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK1
The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
- LIKE49
- LEGIT9
- WOW4
- LOL1
- IDHT2
- FLOP2
- OB2
- SHANK7
We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
- LIKE9
- LEGIT5
- WOW3
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK3
Dave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters
John Daly stuns fans into silence with brutal opening tee shot on PGA Tour Champions
Things got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why
Tiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you
Scottie Scheffler WITB 2024 (March)
Photos from the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Report: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters
Joaquin Niemann names 3 PGA Tour events he’d love to play each year ‘in a perfect world’
Spotted: Bettinardi irons at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
‘Seems suspect’ – PGA Tour pro hits out at decision to hand Adam Scott and Webb Simpson Bay Hill sponsor exemptions
Max Homa WITB 2024 (April)
Max Homa what’s in the bag accurate as of the Masters. Driver: Titleist TSR3 (9 degrees, D1 SureFit setting) Shaft:...
Bryson DeChambeau WITB 2024 (April)
Driver: Krank Formula Fire Pro (6 degrees) Shaft: Project X HZRDUS T1100 75g 6.5 Mini driver: TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver...
Scottie Scheffler’s winning WITB: 2024 Masters
Driver: TaylorMade Qi10 (8 degrees @8.25) Buy here. Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black 7 X (45 inches) 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi10 (15 degrees) Buy...
WITB Time Machine: Danny Willett’s winning WITB, 2016 Masters
Driver: Callaway XR 16 (9 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi Rayon Diamana W-Series 60 X Length: 45.5 inches 3-wood: Callaway XR 16 (15 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi...
-
19th Hole6 days agoDave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoThings got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why
-
19th Hole7 days agoTiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoReport: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole1 day agoTwo star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoAddiction, spinal fusion, and scam artists – Everything Anthony Kim revealed in candid interview with David Feherty
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoAnthony Kim says doctors told him that he ‘may not have much time left’ ahead of LIV return
-
19th Hole1 week agoBrooks Koepka and Sergio Garcia make significant equipment changes as 2024 Masters looms
Pingback: The Wedge Guy: Lessons from The Players Championship – GolfWRX
Don Ho
Sep 16, 2020 at 9:39 pm
I always say all courses scoring and playability is relative. If one says the course is easy and not a challenge well then that person should be scoring in the 70s or par golf (for amateurs).If one takes this view then all courses are playable no matter what tee box or length. Bottom line you have to have “game”, scrambling, putting, GIRs etc.
Terry Koehler
Sep 8, 2020 at 12:06 pm
A healthy male below age 40 should be able to hit the ball 250+ yards. Only about 20% can. Gross
Roger
Sep 9, 2020 at 2:56 pm
100% agree. I’d even say up to 50+.
Jeff Williams
Sep 5, 2020 at 9:34 pm
Wouldn’t you think someone in golf business would keep it to himself and certainly not write an article about NOT watching golf on TV.
Shallowface
Sep 14, 2020 at 3:01 pm
Most of the players speak the same way, which is interesting because if we all felt that way (and I do), professional golf would cease to exist in its current form. The players would have to put up and play for their own money. Which might rekindle my interest.
Lanh Le
Sep 5, 2020 at 10:20 am
DUMB ARTICLE. PLAY OLYMPIA and tell me its easier LOL.
Evan
Sep 5, 2020 at 5:14 am
Interesting article Terry. Given the fairly unimpressive tour average of 60% fairways hit you have to question how penal courses are set up for regular tour stops. Looking at the stats it seems like players are hitting less fairways than years back, which given the big improvements clubs and the ball, is surprisingly. Players have maybe worked out that power trumps accuracy and developed their games accordingly. It would be interesting to see who would prosper from the tour having a policy of tightening up courses and putting more of a premium on accuracy from the tee.
Bob.
Sep 8, 2020 at 6:11 pm
The people that would benefit are the golfers with upright swings. Ala jack back in the day.
Simms
Sep 5, 2020 at 2:49 am
Two choices enjoy the heck out of golf or work your rear off and be as gifted as all PRO athletes are. 99.99% of us are not PRO golf gifted, not even close and if your over 25 your chance of being good enough to be called a PRO are about 1 in ten million (OK better odds then the lottery) that said please you and all your friends on the public courses please play tee box’s that fit your ability and for most men that is the white or middle tees, over 55 move up to the gold on the harder courses so we all can enjoy less then 4 and half hour rounds.
Jeff
Sep 5, 2020 at 12:52 am
When talking about conditions, a run of the mill amateur course might be tougher in the sense that the greens aren’t as true, the fairways don’t roll the same and have more divots etc. However, those things aside, length of club into the green on your second shot has nothing to do with course difficulty. It isn’t like the pros are hitting wedges because they play short courses. They are hitting wedges because they have learned that if they get really good at scrambling and putting, a wayward tee shot that goes 330yards is recoverable. A lot of the PGA players can overpower courses because of the fitness, the equipment and the golf balls. Make no mistake, our courses aren’t tougher, they are tough for different reasons. I have a driver swing speed of 115-118mph. Length isn’t my problem. I could play pro courses and be hitting 8i-LW in on many of my second shots on their courses. I’d still get eaten alive any time I missed a fairway or a GIR on their courses where as they save par after most of their bad shots. They aren’t even playing the same game as us regardless of what course they’re on.
TS
Sep 4, 2020 at 3:25 pm
Long course, hard fairways, long rough, and especially rock hard greens that don’t hold shots from the rough and traps.
Bay Hill, Presidents Cup. Same thing.
Jeff
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:57 am
Any tour player will confirm, they would rather hit an #8 iron from the rough than a #6 iron from the middle of the fairway!
Frank
Sep 5, 2020 at 6:57 pm
Ok, according to TrackMan averages, the average 8 iron vs 6 iron for pros is 183 yards vs 160 yards. Now let’s go to Mark Broadie’s strokes gained distance chart for 183 yards from fairway vs 160 yards from rough. How about that, pros average 3.23 strokes from 160 yards in the rough compared to 3.09 strokes from 183 yards in the fairway! Turns out your opinion is wrong.
geohogan
Sep 8, 2020 at 10:25 am
Im guessing AVERAGE doesnt mean Olympia Fields or US Open “rough”
but the average course they play on the PGA.
Jeremy
Sep 18, 2020 at 8:20 pm
His opinion isn’t wrong, nor is it an opinion. It is an unconfirmed statement. He said tour players would rather hit a shot. Not that trackman would rather hit a shot. If you’re gonna come in here all lawyer style, get your ducks in order.
Prime21
Sep 8, 2020 at 12:57 am
18th hole, Sunday, US Open, given this choice EVERY player would choose the 6 iron from the fairway. This take couldn’t be more wrong.
Brian
Sep 23, 2020 at 4:55 pm
“I’m hitting it as far as I possibly can up there,” he said after a practice round Tuesday at the U.S. Open. “Even if it’s in the rough, I can still get it to the front edge or the middle of the green with pitching wedges or 9-irons. That’s the beauty of my length and that advantage.”
“There’s this point of no return where if you’re around 180 and you try and get faster, but it gets that much more drastically off-line, it really doesn’t help you that much. You don’t gain that much. But once you start getting 195 to 200 to 205, even though you’re missing it that far off-line, you’re so far up close to the green, it’s too big of an advantage to take away.” – U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau
Jeff
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am
He started all these companies. Besides Ben Hogan and they went bankrupt. Are any still around? Any PGA pros playing his product?
Terry Koehler
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am
Thanks to all of you for these comments. Quite apparently I missed the mark in making my point, as I was certainly not comparing “our” games to the skill and talent the pros exhibit every week. That would be foolish as these guys have power, skill and talent that is borderline mystical. That said, the data published on PGATour.com verifies that they are not fairways-hit and GIR machines. But then, with these short games and putting skills, it is quite apparent they don’t have to be.
The point I apparently failed to make is that these guys are so long and powerful — and have such magical short games and deadly putting skills — they can reduce most any golf course to a driver/wedge contest to a degree. I was also trying to bring to attention that, for the golfers who made the cut, Olympia Fields was nearly a thousand shots harder, collectively. I found that fascinating . . . I’m just sayin’.
I was also trying to point out that, in contrast, we recreational golfers routinely hit mid-irons or longer into the green, which is much harder to do, based merely on the physics of golf clubs that have longer shafts and less loft than wedges and short irons. So, yes, in respect to your strength/length profile, you ARE playing a more challenging course than these guys do week in and week out.
Thanks to those of you who “got it” as to the point I was trying to make, and my apologies to those of you who didn’t.
HP
Sep 4, 2020 at 11:57 am
Got it and also most trouble is in play for us.
Jay
Sep 14, 2020 at 6:52 pm
Great observation Terry, spot on. Your point wasn’t lost on me buddy.
golfer
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:40 am
LOL 160 shanks.. says it all
geohogan
Sep 4, 2020 at 8:26 am
IMO, most are missing the point; that being toughness of the course is relative to your ability.
When a 10 hdcp plays a course where he or she is hitting mid to long irons to par 4
it is a tougher test than for a pro who it hitting wedge on most par 4.
The writer isnt saying ams are better than pros. He isnt even saying courses ams play are tougher than courses pros play. IMO the writer is talking about relative difficulty relative to the golfers abilty. Its nuance thinking beyond the abilty of most, unfortunately.
Conner
Sep 4, 2020 at 11:21 am
It would be a lot easier to say “golfing is more difficult for someone that sucks compared to a pro”
Eric
Sep 4, 2020 at 12:01 am
was this satire? Let me guess, the guy who wrote this article is the first to tell you to tuck your shirt in or turn your music down on the course? Absolutely painful read.
Shallowface
Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 pm
How you can play with that music blaring is beyond me. Oh, you’re not out there to play any kind of decent golf. My bad!
Take the music to the park, save your money and stay out of the way of those of us who are out there to actually play some golf.
And yeah, stay off my lawn. Did it for you. For the one zillionth time.
Ivan
Sep 3, 2020 at 11:49 pm
Another example of the pure failure to have developed sufficient analytical skills to make a reasonable conclusion. Here, it’s innocent enough as it’s just golf and this is just a bad golf article. Elsewhere this problem is more dire.
We don’t need everyone to be PhDs, but even high schools should turn out better thinkers than this.
Bob Pegram
Sep 26, 2020 at 2:55 am
A good conclusion from Terry’s analysis is to make the rough severe enough at PGA Tour events that hitting a drive in it is a disincentive. It needs to be more of a penalty than it is on many PGA Tour courses. Making the fairways narrower would help too. Terry’s other conclusion is that we should all practice our short games a lot more. That takes pressure off of shots into the greens. A shot that misses the green doesn’t lead to a bogey when you have sharp short game.
By the way, Terry makes good clubs. Breaking into the existing golf market with a new golf club company is not easy no matter how good your clubs are.
Bill
Sep 3, 2020 at 10:08 pm
So basically tour courses are easier because the guys that play them are better at golf? Horrible take.
Teddy
Sep 3, 2020 at 9:37 pm
SO its no good when they tear the course up, but also no good when its too tough and becomes a putting contest?? DO you only watch football games where the teems combine for between 27 and 29 points??
Alex
Sep 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm
You are so far off it’s unbelievable. Any tour player would beat the tar out of the best am at any country club. Here’s the long and short of it. Brooks tore the hardest public course apart for 3 of 4 days last year. Tiger routinely brought big boy tracks to their knees. Every week someone you’ve never heard of shoots 60 something where plus 3s and 4s would hope to break 80. Bad lies and perfect lies aside, there’s no comparison. Ever see where a pga missed green ends up? The hardest collection area possible. Not to mention none of us hit 4 iron 240 and can hit 1/10 the shots they can. It’s a different game and those guys are so much more skilled I think I’d have just as good of a chance playing in the NFL as on tour as a scratch player. They are so much better than the average club scratch that it’s chess and checkers. The only advantage they have is pre covid having spectators find errant tee shots. Can’t believe you’d be naive enough to spit in the face of greatness and neglect how much more talented those guys are. 1 word Bellerive…2018 PGA. I looked at my buddy and said this place would chew me up and spit me out. That wasn’t even a US Open.
Factsarebiased
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:56 am
You are very mistaken if you think any tour player will beat the tar out of the best am at their club. There are some very very very good ams out there in the world with plus handicaps as good or better then a number of tour pros. Am at the club I work at got to a +6.4. He could put a whooping on say a Zach Johnson or a Every.
Ian
Sep 29, 2020 at 9:04 am
This seems like a wildly inaccurate conclusion. You’re talking about the most elite players in the world and you’re saying your local +6 can compete with a two time major champion??? Your typical tour pro carries a +6 handicap while playing golf courses the don’t even have an accurate course rating for the difficulty in which they are playing it during a tournament week. Then account for the added length the pros play, the firmer/faster greens not to mention tournament pressure. I will happily wager you anything I own that if your AM would not sniff competing in a pga tour event. That’s the reason why the most elite collegiate golfers in the world rarely make cuts when they get into events.
Jared Allen
Sep 3, 2020 at 6:37 pm
I cant believe this article became published. This sounds like a high schooler wrote it who realizes he won’t be as good as the pros, so he puts the people ahead of them down.
Brian
Sep 3, 2020 at 5:40 pm
Agree 100% with this article. Nothing more boring than watching a tournament where 10-15 players are -20 or better. Huge difference between having pro talent and the ability to just overpower a golf course.
Watching Driver/Gap Wedge on every hole equals ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz…
John
Sep 3, 2020 at 4:44 pm
Wow. As other comments have pointed out, this is a ridiculously terrible take. No golfer should ever base a course’s difficulty off of how long the approach shots are. That’s just an absurd standard that disregards literally every single factor of what makes a course difficult. I seriously hope you weren’t paid to miss the mark this badly.
Matt
Sep 3, 2020 at 2:26 pm
I skimmed thru this thinking it was another swing-and-miss attempt at satire. I went back to confirm it is and…. it’s not.
Mpw
Sep 4, 2020 at 1:30 pm
You sir, should lay off the crack pipe
Roy
Sep 3, 2020 at 2:21 pm
About the worst article I have ever read on here and pretty sure the author knows little about golf and less about data abalysis
“And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par” – WOW – so the people playing good shot good scores?? But how good?? 673 under par for 70 players equals 9.6 under par per player, over 4 rounds. So just below 2.5 under par per round. Add in the players who didnt make the cut and you will get a per round average of 1.5 under par.
So the best players in the world – those playing in the playoffs – average right about 1.5 under par over 4 days and his point is the course is too easy?? That its not as hard as what “we” play……
Alex
Sep 3, 2020 at 1:13 pm
This is one of the worst takes I have read in a long time.
John
Sep 3, 2020 at 1:07 pm
I dont like watching formula 1. The roads dont have pedestrians and stoplights. If they had to drive in my conditions I would for sure be a better driver. The roads by my house have potholes, and I drive them every day. Id like to see the foumula one drivers do that with their sissy cars and lack of clearance. Heaven forbid we optimize a track a course where they could showcase their otherworldly talent…..
Shallowface
Sep 3, 2020 at 12:24 pm
It’s certainly true when it comes to pin placements and how difficult short putts are as a result. The USGA advises that holes should be cut in an area “as flat as possible” 3 feet around the cup, but what we see are holes cut right on the edge of ridges on two tiered greens. I often have what I call “McDonald’s Putts” from 3 or 4 feet because the line I have to play resembles an arch. You never see this on television. In fact, when they use a feature that shows the line, I am struck by how straight most 20 footers are on Tour. SV677 is right on the money when it comes to rough and bunkers, and most of the places I play I’m plugging tee shots in drowned fairways even in August. The game would be a lot easier if I got 50 yards of roll as I routinely see on Tour. Throw in “optimized” equipment and one concludes the pros are not only not playing the same game we play, they are playing a MUCH easier game. And it’s one I am not impressed with nor have any interest in watching.
SV677
Sep 3, 2020 at 11:56 am
The fact amateurs hit longer clubs into a green goes to the question of playing the right length tees. However, were amateurs do play harder courses is the rough and bunkers. How often have you been in the rough with the ball down and the ground as hard as a cart path? Yes, it’s easy to hit a recovery out of that. Or, as I did today, try hitting bunker shots where again the ground is like a cart path with a thin layer of sand on it. Now I realize not all courses are like the above. However, there are more courses with these conditions than high end country clubs like pros play that are immaculate.