Opinion & Analysis

A lob wedge is the most dangerous club in your bag—and not in a good way

Published

4 years ago

Jul 17, 2020

For professional golfers, a 60-degree lob wedge around the green could be classified as a surgical scalpel. Many pros—most notably Phil Mickelson—have built their reputations on the ability to hit miraculous recovery shots with these higher-lofted clubs. Phil has even gone as far as carrying a 64-degree wedge for extreme situations where it might come in handy.

For regular golfers though, higher-lofted wedges can end up being anything but scalpel-like, unless you plan on using one to shred your scorecard after the round. Higher lofted wedges can become a massive liability because of their limited margin for error and the speed at which they are swung. This is also why we see so many people trying to innovate in the wedge market—small changes for regular golfers can make a noticeable difference.

The benefits and dangers of the lob wedge

Being able to effectively use a lob wedge can save a lot of shots around the green, especially when faced with a short-sided up and down or a difficult buried lie, but the hardest part of an open-faced lob wedge shot is repeatability. It’s why you can feel like a hero on one hole, and a complete failure on the next—because the ball ended up exactly where it started…or it ends up on the other side of the green…

We’ve all done it!

Professionals at the highest level have the benefit of hitting these shots countless times in practice over and over, not just at their home course but week to week in varying conditions on different grass types. Most golfers don’t have this luxury, and without practice or understanding the dynamics of hitting the shot properly, the failure rate goes up quickly. This is why reasonable expectations, good decision making, and simple technique changes can make a big difference.

The WHY?

Wedges with 60 degrees of loft (and even 56 in some cases) look easy to hit since they have large faces which in turn equals greater surface area to make contact but face area versus effective face area to make contact are two completely different things.

: 60° Lob wedge from address, in open playing position

: 60° Lob wedge from ground view, in open playing position

Compared to a club with less loft, the most extreme being a driver, there is a smaller effective area to make contact and transfer energy to the ball, and beyond the transfer of energy, any club that has an effective loft of more than 50 degrees at impact will be more difficult to control in less than perfect conditions since the coefficient of friction decreases. That means you have less control over launch parameters including spin, which on short shots is one of the biggest components to stop the ball close to the intended target.

Solutions to your wedge problem

This one is the most obvious, but it’s also the least exciting: practice. By dedicating valuable practice time to the short game, you can quickly see improvements. Practice helps ingrain “feels” in your technique and also helps build up the knowledge to analyze ground conditions and lies to know which club to hit and how to play the shot.

The second option is a new wedge—come on, who doesn’t want a new wedge? Whether it be based on loft, bounce, or sole configuration, getting set up with the right tools can make a world of difference, especially if what you are using now is ill-fit to your game. If you really struggle with the short shots around the green and are willing to admit that practice isn’t an option, I highly recommend trying a specialty club designed to make the game easier. I know it’s not the “sexy” option but something like the Cutter CTR1 wedge: Cutter wedge -here to help, or a Square Strike wedge for chipping can make golf fun and easier.

Learning to hit different shots, and making simple changes to how you approach the hole can make a huge difference very quickly to your game. This can involve choosing to hit more low running square faced shots with lower lofted-clubs like a 9 or 8-iron, or if you are still trying to be as aggressive as possible, learning to hit delofted shots with your higher lofted wedges which can also help create more spin. If possible, taking a short game lesson with a teacher can be truly game-changing with a few simple technique adjustments.

Understanding where you loose shots can help you save them

Last but not least, managing expectations can help take the pressure off when hitting shots around the green and help you make better decisions, leading to lower scores. Instead of trying to hit a “hero” flop shot over a bunker from a bad lie, aim for a larger part of the green and give yourself a better opportunity make your next shot—again not a magic cure, but if you do this a few more times in a round of golf, you can turn those wedges into weapons—and not weapons of self-destruction.

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Ryan Barath

Ryan Barath is a club-fitter & master club builder with more than 17 years of experience working with golfers of all skill levels, including PGA Tour players. He is the former Build Shop Manager & Social Media Coordinator for Modern Golf. He now works independently from his home shop and is a member of advisory panels to a select number of golf equipment manufacturers. You can find Ryan on Twitter and Instagram where he's always willing to chat golf, and share his passion for club building, course architecture and wedge grinding.

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steve jenney

Oct 17, 2020 at 9:54 am

When I teach and I find a lot wedge in a 20 handicappers bag I say “there are only two people I know that can use this club” GOD and Tiger Woods! Michelson is so over rated its disgusting! Put in another hybrid or another wedge. 46, 49 52 and 56 at most.

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- Samsam
  
  Jul 12, 2021 at 11:30 pm
  
  It is scary you actually teach someone.
  
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Dennis Beach

Aug 8, 2020 at 10:05 am

I usually use my 60* to make full swing shots. Trying to finesse a lob with a half swing is better left to the pros. Greenside bunkers where the green is higher than the sand is my go to 60* shot, especially if the green is eye level when you are in the bunker, as it requires a full swing to get up and on most of the time. My 56* is my all around chip/pitch club within 50 yards of the green. If the ground is level, I will use a pitching(46*)wedge to bump and run. I carry a 52*, but use mostly on full shots inside 100 yards of the green.

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christian

Aug 1, 2020 at 1:33 pm

Hitting a lob wedge doesn’t need to be some big mysterious event. It’s the same as the rest of the irons in you bag. Keep your hands ahead of the ball at impact and you can hit a lob wedge just as effectively as a 4 iron. I don’t care if you’re hitting a one hop and stop pitch or a high soft lob, keep your shaft leaning forward and hands ahead of the ball at impact and you’ll hit 90% of them just fine. Everyone gets freaked out about 60 degree wedges for some reason and in the end, it’s just a club that needs a little practice to figure out…but then again, don’t all of your clubs need that.

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ChipNRun

Jul 30, 2020 at 7:29 pm

Two things to decide on LWs:
* Can you hit a 60* reliably? If not, go with a 58*.
* Whether it’s a 60* or 58*, you need to pull firmly through the shot with the left side. If not, you’ll come up short a lot on your LW.

Once you resolve these two points, remember: a LW is not an all-occasions club. If you hit a lob into a green with a false front, don’t be surprised if the ball spins back to your feet. In this case, go to a chip and run if you’re going uphill slightly.

I saw this happen several times from the U.S. women in the 2014 Curtis Cup. The U.S. would lob into the false front and die, or spin back, while the British/Irish women would roll a chip-and-run in close for an easy tap-in. (Fortunately, the US women were dropping iron-shot darts into the green from the fairway, and eventually won out.)

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Par-Tee-Animal

Jul 29, 2020 at 9:52 pm

Honestly, I think most of Ryan’s work is just product of boredom. This article is so lazily written that the only data he provides is a percentage of “sand saves” with no data on what kind of wedge was used during those attempted “saves”.

Also on a similarly and ironic note, he includes a meme about skulling a sand wedge 170 yards from a bunker. What degree is a sand wedge again? Oh that’s right it’s between 54-57 degrees, so he’s basically invalidated his argument in one meme.

How often are you going to open the face of a 60* lob wedge in a bunker or around the green? Hardly ever, want to know why? Because it has 60* of loft unlike the 56* everyone opens up and sweeps through the bunker with that has the added repercussion of higher bounce which leads to more skulled shots than a 60* with lower bounce.

Now are lob wedges for everyone? Certainly not, there are guys like Lee Trevino who only carried a wedge as high as 54* and had a successful career. But for someone who want a little more confidence to land a nice soft shot onto the green over a bunker or even a water hazard they’re a nice tool to have. Why work on building a whole new swing for one shot when you can buy a club that effectively has the same mechanics?

Ryan, I highly encourage you to rethink your Op-Ed articles as they’re basically non-educated opinions by someone who speed out articles that read like Buzzfeed headlines.

I saw your latest post about club makers and gourmet chefs being similar, maybe it’s time for you to hang up the carry bag and take up cooking. At least that way everything is already measured out for you so you don’t have to try to use any critical thinking which you seem to lack.

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PATRICK CARROLL

Jul 29, 2020 at 3:23 pm

When i was a 25 handicap (maybe more that’s just a guess), I used a lob wedge often and ineffectively. Probably rarely at the right time. It probably didn’t help my score like using a 9 iron to bump and run would have. But it was fun.

I’m officially a 12 handicap now. The big difference is I know the shots I CAN hit and know the shots I SHOULD hit. That combination means i spend most of my time using my 54* with great success. But, when I need to play a high, short, soft shot, I can do it with moderate success. Certainly much better than I could with an open faced 54 or lower.

In short. Know the FEW shots and scenarios you NEED a LW and be diligent in using the club ONLY for those shots.

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Evan

Jul 27, 2020 at 12:08 pm

Why, when facing a short shot that needs to fly high and land softly, wouldn’t a LW be helpful, regardless of handicap- in fact probably more helpful to a less skilled player?

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JackCi

Jul 27, 2020 at 8:15 am

This is a dumb article. I use my 60* a lot and also any other club down to a 7 even around the green. The 60* is nothing short of s godsend around the green and one of the easiest clubs to hit. Whoever wrote this is a hack and should retire.

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BWeez

Jul 25, 2020 at 2:34 pm

A 60 degree wedge is useless and isn’t worthy of the slot in the bag, you’d be better off with a driving iron. My 56 degree is the most effective club in my bag and I use it in a million different situations. It is also the club I practice with the most. Anyone who puts anything above a 48 degree in their hand and hasn’t got serious reps with it is hoping to get lucky.

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Justin

Jul 21, 2020 at 3:58 pm

I think this article has some credence. I have a 60 degree wedge and used many different kinds of grinds and bounces in the past. It is in the grinds and bounces that I think can benefit each player the most. Once the player understands what is best utilized for them can the wedge be beneficial. I have though found lately I have gravitated to more my 56 and 52 on standard wedge shots and pitches and only using my 60 in specialty situations. It is quite a low bounce so it comes in handy on tight lies and firm bunkers. It has a decent amount of heal and toe relief. I am a low single digit handicap. Not sure if thats any relevance to the situation but I always used to just use a 60* form anywhere. Have found since I expanded the 56 and 52 it has allowed me greater control over being able to keep the flight down and get the ball running on the green faster.

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Bas

Jul 20, 2020 at 5:13 am

I’m a 38 handicap and have a 60 degree Cleveland CBX in the bag. It is incredibly easy to hit, more so than my SW and AW (Callaway Rogue). I just put the ball in the middle of my stance, weight 50/50 and swing through the ball nice and easy. Nothing fancy. Love it from the sand as well.

Although at my level I have never even thought about ‘opening up’ a 60 degree wedge. Why on earth would you do that? Isn’t the point of a 60 degree that you don’t have to open up your 54 degree? i would think that 60 would be enough.

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nomad golfer

Jul 20, 2020 at 12:01 am

I use a Lovett chipper wedge for getting out of sand traps otherwise it just stays in the bag. My reliable short range club is a sand wedge which I don’t use in sand !.
Yeah it’s a funny game.

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Jonas Henderson

Jul 19, 2020 at 9:05 pm

Exactly what audience are you addressing here? A lob wedge is an entirely legitimate tool for many serious golfers. I bet among single digit hcp players, most would say it’s indispensable. Among mid-cappers, I bet a good proportion wield it with decent competence, especially, if they use it for standard chips and pitches, and not hero shots.

I’d wager the 3w has destroyed more rounds than LWs ever have.

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- gwelfgulfer
  
  Jul 29, 2020 at 11:46 am
  
  I’d easily take that bet. The LW has far more potential use in a round than a 3wd does for the vast majority. More so if they aren’t hitting a good % of GIR’s and blindly grab the 60* for each and every situation.
  
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Simms

Jul 19, 2020 at 10:26 am

If you play public golf I find it a lot easier to find a place to practice 58 degree lob and chip shots then any other shot…almost no one in the public course arena has a 100 yard grass to a real green practice area and for most of us 75% of driving ranges are mats (almost a waste of time for short iron and fairway wood practice). So I keep a 58 in my bag because I have practiced with it till it works.

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Tom Duckworth

Jul 19, 2020 at 10:15 am

I think Phil made the idea of a lob wedge popular for many golfers and that has probably hurt their games. In many weekend golfers minds their idea of the short game is to hit a high shot that lands close to the hole and stops, no matter what the shot really calls for. I guess a low running chip isn’t as sexy as a high lob but I’ll take closer to the hole any day.

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Matt70

Jul 18, 2020 at 1:35 pm

I only carry 46° and then 54°. Keep it simple. +0.2 hcap

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Duane Martin

Jul 18, 2020 at 1:08 pm

I still carry my Ping Eye 2+ SW instead of lob wedge…..57.5 degrees, double bevel sole, 64.5 degrees of lie angle.
Best “SW” ever made imo…. easy to flop, easy to hit 80 yards and easy to hit all green side bunker shots with.
But like everyone else has said….. practice goes a long way towards perfection.

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Rascal

Jul 18, 2020 at 12:04 pm

I agree, don’t see the need to take up the bag spot when I can use the 3i instead.

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Mac

Jul 18, 2020 at 3:43 am

Technique is king!

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- gwelfgulfer
  
  Jul 19, 2020 at 2:34 pm
  
  Pretty well this. Golf is hard, even harder to play very well and the vast majority of players in the world have had little to no actual quality instruction, little to no practice (or practice poorly because of lack of knowledge) or actual drive/ability to get better.
  
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Dicklaus

Jul 17, 2020 at 7:06 pm

I’ve been a Cat 1 golfer for the best part of 50 years. The whole basis of the short game is to get the ball on the ground as soon as possible – unless you’re forced otherwise.
I tried a LW once and realised it was an unreliable club – unless I was prepared to put in a lot of practice.
It was also evident that a better strike, and the same result as a LW, was possible by opening up my 54 SI.
In other words, the shot I’d learnt as a kid & used for decades.
Different strokes for different folks!

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Dan

Jul 17, 2020 at 6:13 pm

I was a scratch when 95% of players didn’t carry a lob wedge, myself included. You practice enough you can hit anything.

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Richard Pym

Jul 17, 2020 at 4:39 pm

For me it’s all about course management a good player knows most of the time what type of shot to hit around the green. I think that the slightly higher handicappers sometimes try to hit the miracle Mickelson esq flops shots they have seen from TV rather than taking the easier shot for say bogey and walking away with 1 or 2 points rather than a blob.

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Bob Jones

Jul 17, 2020 at 3:50 pm

My 60-degree wedge is calibrated to certain distances for pitching and for chipping. I have practiced with it around the green and am familiar with what I can do with it and what I can’t. It’s a big stroke-saving club for me.

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KP

Jul 17, 2020 at 2:47 pm

I never thought I would see an endorsement for gimmicks like the Square Strike wedge on GolfWrx, a website that is supposedly geared towards serious golfers. I’m stunned.

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Acemandrake

Jul 17, 2020 at 1:13 pm

56 is easier to use than 58 or 60. It’s also more versatile.

For me, there’s just less thought involved with the 56.

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David

Jul 17, 2020 at 12:46 pm

I could probably hit 75% of my 60 degree shots with my 56, but still would play it more often in a round than I would a 3 wood. For my set I have put a 60 in the bag, lowered the loft on my 5 wood, and dumped the 3 wood to stay at 14 clubs. Newer 60s seem to have better weight distribution and easier to hit than my older versions did but that’s just my opinion. I think it comes down to understanding your capability when picking your target landing area, but its doesn’t seem any harder to hit to me. I understand I’m not Phil.

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Sean Foster-Nolan

Jul 17, 2020 at 12:44 pm

I disagree. I have both a 58 and 62 degree. They are real stroke savers for me.

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DougE

Jul 17, 2020 at 11:38 am

I too have to disagree, with respect.

I feel this article might be better published on a site where the majority of players are mid to higher handicappers. Not WRX. The article itself is not totally off base in the opinions presented, though it is quite condescending if you are lumping good players into the equation. You don’t get to be a single digit handicap without having good control of your wedges and a somewhat thorough understanding of the design and dynamics of wedges and swings, particularly short game swings.

Personally, I could not play to the level I do without a good quality lob wedge. I use anything from a hybrid to a 58* around the greens, but 90% of the time, it is my 58. It is the most trusted short game club in my bag. Sure, I screw up with it, occasionally, just like everyone else does from time to time, but I’ll take the 90-95%, good to excellent shot, success rate I do have with it any day, over not having a LW in my bag at all. Yes, I admit, I practice and play a lot (virtually everyday), so I am very aware of how to handle it properly. But, I would also guess, that the majority of WRX readership would fall into my same category (4.8), or better. Most here are serious players of the game, not just casual golfers.

A simple qualification in the beginning of the article suggesting that it is aimed more at mid to higher handicap level golfers, and then the article has plenty of merit. JMO.

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John B

Jul 17, 2020 at 11:05 am

Am 84 now – 30 years with my Ping 60 degree lob. Swing plane & speed very important. Don’t give up, just practice, practice!

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Brandon

Jul 17, 2020 at 10:34 am

I think the negative feedback misses the real point Ryan is trying to make. Perhaps Ryan should change the title to “A lob wedge CAN be the most dangerous club.” It seems like the real point of it is that the club can be dangerous when trying to replicate the shots tour pros make look easy. I like using my lob wedge as much as any of you, but I wouldn’t dream of trying anything more complicated than a simple pitch shot.

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Big_Church

Jul 17, 2020 at 10:30 am

I’m a 12 index and use a 60 all the time around the green, gets me out of trouble(which happens a lot) quite often. Disagree here.

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Obee

Jul 17, 2020 at 10:19 am

Define your audience first. The overwhelming majority of players below a 10-handicap can wield a LW just fine, and for many players 5 and under, it’s their go-to wedge around the green.

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Brian Parsons

Jul 17, 2020 at 9:54 am

I completely disagree with this. I’m a 7 index and I would be lost without my 60. Gets me out of trouble around the greens all the time. I use it almost exclusively on shorter sand shots its my go to club for a full 80-90 yard shot from the fairway. Love my 60.

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- Brandon
  
  Jul 17, 2020 at 11:40 am
  
  I agree with you completely. Sometimes I’ll chunk or blade my 60, but I do it with my 56 or my 52 as well. Definitely not going to buy an infomercial wedge just because I suck. I’d rather be a 7 with real clubs and be able to look at myself in the mirror than a 5 with clown clubs.
  
  Reply Report comment
SV677

Jul 17, 2020 at 9:47 am

I agree, lob wedges are a disaster waiting to happen. I pretty much only use one for full shots. Even then I avoid it as much as possible. I also do not open the clubface because the ball goes 45* left (lefty) every time. I think a max of 56* is enough unless one is very skilled. Find the safe spot on the green and hope for a long putt and avoid disaster.

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Alexander Thompson

Jul 17, 2020 at 9:39 am

I disagree with this idea. I think more golfers should utilize a lob wedge. It’s not necessarily about technique of hitting the ball. It’s about knowing how to set up to the shot correctly. Feet position, hand position, and ball position are the keys to hitting a lob wedge. These don’t require much practice since they are set up related. Promoting gimmicky clubs to make the game easier is a set up for failure when the solution is rather simple and allows people to have a better understanding of what the club should be doing at impact with the ball.

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Skip

Jul 17, 2020 at 9:32 am

Dumb article to assume nobody is good enough to use a lob wedge.

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brian

Jul 17, 2020 at 9:27 am

I stopped playing with anything higher lofted than a 56 degree. I can open the face and hit flops every bit as easily with a 56 and it has more utility, for me, than a 60.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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