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The Wedge Guy: Has the game gotten too hard?

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Shortly after I started writing my blog as “The Wedge Guy” back in 2004, I created my “alter ego” so that I could occasionally pontificate on things that were outside my regular discussions that were focused on helping my readers hit better golf shots more often. Those “other” columns were penned under the pseudonym, “The Texas Wedge Hog: Rootin’ Out The Truth,” and I had fun sharing some opinions and observations and hearing from my readers.

So, in the spirit of The Texas Wedge Hog, I offer this observation for our discussion: I think the game has gotten too darn hard to be enjoyed as it should.

Let me begin by agreeing that golf is a hard enough game as it is. If you’ve ever seen Robin Williams routine on golf, it is side-splitting…but amazingly true. Think about it. We have this small white ball and a 4-1/4” hole somewhere a quarter mile or so away. We have these implements to strike the ball with, after we wrap that implement around behind us and attempt to deliver it back to the ball with accuracy and power, so that we can propel that ball toward the target. And we have this concept of “par” that allows us 3, 4, or 5 strokes to get from tee to hole at various ranges that average out to about a stroke for each 100 yards. But this concept of par allows that half of our strokes will be taken on the greens, after the long shots have gotten us there.

Please understand that my perspective on golf begins with an introduction to the game nearly as soon as I could walk (68 years ago next month). I began playing nine holes by myself or with my friends at the age of 6 or 7 years. I distinctly remember how the par-4 holes evolved from three 2-wood shots and a chip and putt (or two) and 54 was a good score. Then, I began to be able to reach some holes with two shots, and the goal became 45—then 40 as I gained enough strength to be able to achieve greens-in-regulation.

I grew up on a little 9-hole municipal course, and we were taught the game from the hole backwards. We were taught that way because of the relative difficulty of the game back then. Putting was the easiest skill to master, so we were taught that first. Greens rolled about 5-7 back then I suppose, but the Stimpmeter hadn’t been invented yet. Greens were relatively flat and simple.

Once we kind of had putting down, we progressed to learning chipping and pitching the ball, then short irons. Those skills evolved into middle iron play, and the long part of the game. In general, the closer you were to the hole, the easier the game got. Chipping was harder than putting, but easier than full iron shots. Mastering long irons and fairway woods was very difficult and driving not far behind with the old persimmon drivers.

My observation is that we (whoever “we” are) have flipped this upside down, and now the closer you get to the hole, the harder mastery becomes. With equipment and teaching technology, we can get a beginning golfer to efficient execution of the full shots pretty quickly. But there are simply no shortcuts to learning how to putt on and chip/pitch to today’s greens, which are firmer, faster and more undulating than those of the past.

As I understand it, the USGA adopted the Stimpmeter as a “standard” measurement of green speed back in the 1980s. So, they benchmarked green speeds on several hundred courses across the country and found those at Oakmont Country Club to be the fastest in the U.S— at something under 9! Augusta National wasn’t far behind, and those two have long earned the reputations for speed. But today you would be hard pressed to find any quality golf course with green speeds under 10 or 11, and many surpass 12 or 13. They get there by rolling the greens firmer, so they can cut them closer. Hybrid grass development is constant, so golfers can have as smooth a putting surface as possible. And this makes putting and greenside play more difficult than ever.

I personally do not believe this is good for golf. I love this game and all it has given me over this lifetime of playing and being fortunate enough to earn a living within it. But I don’t see juniors and beginners having much fun. And I don’t either when our course greens go dormant through the winter and greens that were designed in the 1980s for Stimp speeds of 8-9 now run off the chart. Many pin positions leave you looking for the windmill or clown’s mouth.

I do agree that the difficulty of golf is one of the appealing aspects of this game. But that difficulty should be mostly about making an airborne ball do what you want—not figuring out whether this 12 foot putt is going to break two feet or more—and wondering how the hell you are going to stop it close if you miss.

Next week: A radical idea for making the game inviting to beginners and juniors again.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. 84425

    Feb 12, 2020 at 6:56 am

    Reading the title of the story I thought “is this guy nuts: harder? It’s become easier!” But upon reading it I think you might be right for the general masses. Those that have a good short game will not be affected too much, or might be even better of with faster greens. But if your short game is not great, you will strugle.

    Where it has become easier (too easy imho) to cross the first 300 yards of a hole, the last 50 yards have become harder (if you play where conditions are like you state). While both long and short game require practice, short game requires continuous practice. Hours and hours on the putting green, which is something not everyone has the time for.

  2. Jim Berry

    Feb 6, 2020 at 8:49 am

    Golf has always been hard. One thing that I have noticed about the better players have in common is a short game. When I score well, the putting and chipping are working. Many of the people that I see struggling with chipping and pitching have only one shot with their wedges. I never see them around the chipping practice area trying different shots and lies. The touch part of the game, chipping and putting, takes practice and attention to get better. I am 71 now, and am scoring better than I ever have. I love a course that is in great condition, and am willing and eager to deal with the challenges.

  3. Pelling

    Feb 5, 2020 at 10:23 pm

    Golf is much easier now than it has ever been. The ball goes straight and doesn’t cut on mishit shots. The clubs are huge with sweet spots the size of diner plates. Wedges are versatile and putters are almost automatic, especially from five feet and closer. Lasers yield exact distances. Shoes are lightweight and fabrics conform to the elements. When I started the game, at age 10 in 1963, I inherited my dad’s Spaulding Top Flight irons and his Kenneth Smith 4 wood with a tear drop shaft. I caddied and got to play the local country club on Mondays at 7:00 AM. My hand me down leather Footjoys were immediately soaking wet from the heavy dew and weighed about 10 lbs. I had a heavy leather bag with a thin terrible strap. Modern technology at the time was a Hogan Sure Out sand wedge with a flange the size of a quartered orange.
    My brass headed Billy Casper Wilson putter had a sweet spot the size of a pea. There was no club fitting, golf ball covers cut violently on mishits, and I had a nine iron that I learned to open up and play all sorts of lobs, cuts, and pitches with in my back yard. It was my scoring club. Oh, and left handlers were out of luck as there were very few clubs, let alone good ones, available.

  4. Bob Jones

    Feb 5, 2020 at 9:26 pm

    I play on a course occasionally that has very good greens most of the time. It is a tournament course, and the rest of the time they are in tournament condition. Then they are fast, but true, and I can’t believe how much better of a putter that makes me.

  5. Red Nelson

    Feb 5, 2020 at 6:53 pm

    Hi Terry,
    I’m going off-topic in order to reprimand you. Get off the fence, man. Only Jack Nicklaus, the ultimate White Bread, says “darn.” Man-up Texas-style and let your inner animal cut loose! Say “Damn, this game is hard.” I’m pretty sure no one will be offended. If they are, well, they can darn well fornicate themselves. Verdad, amigo?

  6. Chuck Urwin

    Feb 5, 2020 at 6:38 pm

    My old boss kept his 36 greens under 10! I realized as I got older he was trying to help the public golfer enjoy golf more! Low hdcp players did not like them that slow but they were in the minority of players, so it was slow as you go! I believe public greens are too fast now & should be slowed down! Private clubs who have always had fairly fast greens should continue to do as they like!

  7. Rob

    Feb 5, 2020 at 12:57 pm

    I’ll take super fast and smooth greens over slower but bumpy greens all the time. I can adjust to speed, there’s no way to adjust to bumpy. I play 90% of my golf on public courses and whenever I get the opportunity to play a private course with fast greens I find myself making more putts.

  8. Mark M

    Feb 5, 2020 at 11:00 am

    You’re right, that Robin Williams bit on golf is hilarious!
    I can see where Terry is coming from, golf can be especially hard for the beginner, the once a month player or the average weekend golfer. But there ARE courses with slower, flatter greens, wide open fairways and a lack of penalty areas. There are par 3 courses for those who need shorter courses, with less difficulty. Are those people playing these courses? Do they move up to a teebox suitable for their games?

    I see this whole idea of growing the game by making things easier as antithetical to the game of golf. I don’t think that golf is a game for the masses. Golf is inherently difficult. Golf is not bowling. You can’t just go out and play this game without any training, practice or work and expect to do anything but struggle.

    I think Jimmy Dugan said it best: “It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great.”

  9. Tim

    Feb 5, 2020 at 10:04 am

    I agree. Green speeds are getting nuts. Ridiculously fast greens are creeping into the local course, not just the high end ones. It seems to me that the the traffic jams around the course are being caused by groups spending too much time on the greens- plumb bobbing and walking around and around like they do on TV. Slowing down the greens will make wedges stop faster and putts roll straighter. The short game will be far easier and less touchy – as a result – faster.

    The other truth of the matter is that people are imitating what they see on tv. People need to realize that what the guys on TV are doing is very different from what we are doing on a saturday morning. Golf is really akin to bowling. Its a silly little pass-time game, nothing more. So lighten up, hit the ball and move on.

  10. Mat

    Feb 5, 2020 at 4:02 am

    I would invite Americans to putt on “British” greens that are 8-9 on the Stimp. It is much more enjoyable.

    Every time I come back to the States and play, it’s just idiotic. The misses are so punishing, it’s clear that the game slows down from the putting. No wonder everyone takes a lot of time! It’s like putting on linoleum.

    No course should ever be over 10 unless the heat were to dry it out. No greenskeeper should ever want something higher than 10.0.

    Again, USGA is out of touch here. Just because you can make a 13 doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

  11. JThunder

    Feb 4, 2020 at 8:51 pm

    This article seems to posit that putting is ruining golf. Is Terry Koehler a pseudonym for Johnny Miller?

    yip yip yip

  12. Alex

    Feb 4, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    Stop playing boxes that overmatch you and equipment that doesn’t fit you. The ball goes so much straighter and longer than ever and is so much easier to control than years before. It’s also not a game you can just pick up and be scratch overnight no matter how much of an athlete you think you are. The attention span and ability to work towards a goal being next to nothing nowadays and wanting instant gratification is why people perceive golf as hard.

  13. Rick

    Feb 4, 2020 at 3:32 pm

    I’ve been playing for 40 years, the game was harder playing with blades, persimmon woods and no 60 degree wedge! The ball goes farther the club’s are easier to hit and I’m hitting it just as far as I did in my 20s. Golf is and always will be for the few who have perseverance! The desire to compete and enjoy what it gives you. You can’t keep trying to force people to adopt the idea that everybody is a right to be good! Stop the insanity!

  14. Shallowface

    Feb 4, 2020 at 2:59 pm

    “Many pin positions leave you looking for the windmill or clown’s mouth.”
    The USGA suggests that pins only be set in positions that are as flat as possible three feet around the cup. Most superintendents that I speak to about this are completely unaware of that suggestion.
    Augusta National has its reputation for fast undulating greens, but truth is when you watch The Masters putts of that length are rarely played outside the hole. They follow the USGA’s practice.
    I’ve been playing nearly 50 years, and I think the game is the easiest its ever been. 460cc Drivers. Balls that don’t spin and therefore fly straight. Hybrids. Wedges available in a myriad of grinds. Putters that are impossible to mishit.
    And that’s why people drop out. They know the above is true. And they can’t help but think that if a person can’t play with this equipment, there must be something wrong with them. Just the opposite effect one would think modern equipment would have.

  15. Rich Douglas

    Feb 4, 2020 at 1:40 pm

    I’m with Hogan: putting is boring and a completely different game. I’m tired of seeing the groups ahead of me slowing the pace while they 4-putt all day. (The fourth putt just scraped away from 6 feet after the first three.)

  16. Juststeve

    Feb 4, 2020 at 11:49 am

    I think the game is a lot easier than it was when I first started playing in the 1960’s. The modern ball goes further and straighter. Modern clubs are much easier to hit and vastly more forgiving of minor mistakes. Today’s greens are so smooth and true that you can actually expect the ball to go in if you get the line and speed correct. When I started playing even at elite clubs putts over 15 feet were basically crap shoots.

  17. DB

    Feb 4, 2020 at 10:44 am

    I agree that the greens make the game VERY difficult for beginners. I see them getting frustrated when they 3-4 putt every single green. And I’m not talking about fancy courses either, these are public courses that were designed decades ago and now the greens run 10-11 like you mentioned. Some of the slopes and tiers that might have been challenging decades ago are now brutally punishing if you misjudge.

  18. dat

    Feb 4, 2020 at 9:46 am

    Bomb & gouge is boring. Creative golf is basically dead.

    • Moosejaw McWilligher

      Feb 4, 2020 at 8:48 pm

      The vast majority of golfers cannot “bomb”, and cannot “gouge” anywhere near the green. The vast majority of golfers don’t have the skill to be *deliberately* “creative”, which is even harder than the first two things.

      For the 0.1% of golfers who compete for big money at the elite level, “boring” will earn them more money in the long run than “creative”.

  19. Ryan

    Feb 4, 2020 at 9:36 am

    I think the Wedge guy hit the nail on the head with this one. I coach HS golf at a very inner city school. Golf has gotton to hard. We now make courses for those who are really good and there just are not that many of those golfers out there. We need to get back to shorter golf courses with less challenges. This will speed up play as well as get more people out there.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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