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Dear Tiger…

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Dear Tiger,

Earlier today, I heard the news you withdrew from the Northern Trust with a muscle strain. I hope that as you head home, you get some rest and feel better soon. I can imagine you’re probably disappointed in having to leave the tournament, but at the end of the day, feeling your best is way more important than trying to prove something that doesn’t need to be proven.

Speaking of proving things, don’t listen to the armchair doctors (unless your actual doctor is sitting in an armchair). Don’t worry about how the golf talking heads of the world will react. Don’t feel pressured to return early because of the Playoffs or the Presidents Cup. Do what you have to do on your timeline, to get to 100 percent—or as close as someone with as many back surgeries can be to 100 percent.

Growing up, I never missed watching a tournament you played in, and as an adult, my habits haven’t changed much. As much as I and others want to see you play every week, I realize that it’s just not possible. The travel, the walking, and workouts, the range time, they all take a toll that we, as regular golfers, will never truly understand.  I still remember only a few short years ago when you said you might never play again, and I was heartbroken. Not because I selfishly wanted to see you play, but because I hoped that current 10-year-old kids would have the chance to watch you in competition. Obviously, that wasn’t how the story ended, and I’m grateful as a golf fan for that.

When you drained the winning putt, walked off the 18th green at the Masters this year, and hugged your kids—just as your father hugged you—the golf world stood still. Golf fans once again appreciated what they had witnessed—a Tiger Woods major victory. Although not quite the same experience, it was pretty cool to be able to sit there with my wife and our child, just like my parents did with me in 1997.

As a 43-year-old guy with two kids, you have a lot of gas left in your tank – not for golf, maybe, but for actual life. Regardless of if we don’t see you make a swing for another month—or ever again in front of a camera—I just hope you get healthy. You have done so much for golf, professional golf, and even more for others thanks to your TGR Foundation—you have nothing left to prove to anyone.

Golf will go on and people will live their lives. My hope is the same as it was back in 2017 when it looked like you might never tee it up in competition again: you and your family you get to enjoy a healthy life.

 

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Ryan Barath is a club-fitter & master club builder with more than 17 years of experience working with golfers of all skill levels, including PGA Tour players. He is the former Build Shop Manager & Social Media Coordinator for Modern Golf. He now works independently from his home shop and is a member of advisory panels to a select number of golf equipment manufacturers. You can find Ryan on Twitter and Instagram where he's always willing to chat golf, and share his passion for club building, course architecture and wedge grinding.

53 Comments

53 Comments

  1. Donn

    Sep 14, 2019 at 7:56 pm

    Dear Tiger:

    Please, leave pro golf, return to California, and run for governor, to break the stranglehold that the Dem party has on the good people of this state. Only someone of your stature could knock off the wannabbee dictator Gavin Newsom. Please.

  2. Jay

    Aug 22, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    Hahahaha is this a love letter? This is so weird.

  3. The Dudeness

    Aug 17, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    Serious Question; How can you write a letter like that about someone who is not part of your family,, if you dont live at my address,,, sorry!

  4. Niggy

    Aug 16, 2019 at 4:12 pm

    Hookers & Blow

  5. AndIEvenLikeTiger

    Aug 15, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    Sycophantic drivel.

  6. The Dudeness

    Aug 13, 2019 at 8:17 pm

    Dear readers
    If your a parent and Tiger Woods is your child’s “Role Model” you have failed as a parent. A role model is some one you have an interaction with on a personal basis, not entertainers who you helped become rich and who will never be a part of your life.A role model is not someone who has affairs and then is arrested while driving under the influence of narcotics. And no, none of my role models are entertainers.

  7. The Dudeness

    Aug 13, 2019 at 8:09 pm

    Are comments censored on this site?

  8. Mad-Mex

    Aug 13, 2019 at 3:29 pm

    Dear Golfers
    I read the comments in fascination from what I can only assume are grown me calling Tiger Woods a role model. If your a parent and Tiger Woods is your child’s role model, you have failed as a parent. A child’s role model should be someone he/she has a physical interaction with, a parent, a teacher a relative, my role model is my step-father who worked an average of 2 jobs weekly and at time also on weekends to give me a better life when we first came to this country from Mexico. Reading how people defend a multi-millionaire entertainer, who owes his wealth to them , as if he was a family member is astonishing!

  9. Mad-Mex

    Aug 12, 2019 at 10:44 pm

    Dear Reader
    I cannot understand how ANYONE considers an entertainer (i.e sports player,movie star, musician a “role model” or “hero” since that “role model” will never have a face to face interaction with you.
    If your a father and an entertainer is your kids “role model” you have some parenting failures in your bag. If your not a father and YOUR father or someone your PERSONALLY know is not your “role model” you have problems.
    Sorry if I don’t lavish Tiger Woods with praise, but he , like thousands of other entertainers, became millionaires with the money of the people who payed to see them perform.
    In case you care or wonder, my role model was my stepfather who worked his ass off in two jobs when we came to this country so I could have a better life than he did.

  10. Sean Crappity

    Aug 12, 2019 at 9:27 pm

    Thannnnnnks for the memories! Lol!

  11. MW

    Aug 12, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    Tiger should not be considered for any Ryder Cup or President Cup team for this very reason. I’m not sure he even would especially based on his play in the last Ryder cup and his age, but give the spots to those who are much healthier. At this point it’s hard not to think that the back issues are an easy out when he is playing bad.

  12. Salmonoid

    Aug 11, 2019 at 11:51 pm

    All you Tiger haters, two facts: 1) if you’re on tour and in the top 120, you’re a multimillionaire. He brought big purses to to game. 2) his record! Who’s on pace to beat his record? What say you?

    • Jamie

      Aug 12, 2019 at 12:17 am

      Oops. You played the hater card. Autofail. Big purses in the era of money printed from thin air and corporate bailout welfare? Big deal. What record? Nicklaus didn’t waste his 30s and still has the record.

    • JThunder

      Aug 14, 2019 at 12:17 pm

      So, you’re saying money and wins are all that count in a person? I don’t think anyone is disputing his record or his ridiculous bank account. His behavior on and off the course, and his very public personal choices are another matter. And, NO, you can’t have one without the other. You want a private life in the modern world, then don’t become rich or famous!

      • Pro Tip..

        Aug 16, 2019 at 12:36 pm

        I just came to laugh at all the tiger haters lol, you guys are silly and have no idea. “There are so many more people to talk about” Blah Blah Blah. They did the same thing for Jack until the end and will most defiantly do it with Tiger. Keep on hating chaps! You make me happy, its fun to read the moronic comments of you haters lol.

  13. Lance

    Aug 11, 2019 at 8:03 pm

    Hey, R… Elaborate…

  14. Dustin Bush

    Aug 11, 2019 at 3:57 pm

    Beautifully written, so warm, true love within those words!

  15. Joseph Ortep

    Aug 10, 2019 at 4:35 pm

    OMG… wth.. Togger who??? Good bye and good riddance… you people really need a life. He has the worst attitude in sports today…

  16. Jamie

    Aug 10, 2019 at 11:56 am

    Tiger has made golf journalism very boring and shallow. And those are who he has brought into the game: the boring and shallow types.

  17. Rascal

    Aug 10, 2019 at 12:56 am

    I hope Tiger has a nice retirement so that the dumbbells constantly whining about Tiger coverage all find something more productive to do with their vitriol.

    One can hope.

    • JThunder

      Aug 15, 2019 at 11:45 pm

      Absolutely, because consumers should have NO SAY in what they’re force-fed by the media!

  18. Matt

    Aug 9, 2019 at 10:18 pm

    Well done. He has changed the game. We all want to see that greatness again. That is why TV covers Tiger. Ratings and ratings pay the bills. Get well Tiger, I want to see you play at Whistling Straits in 2020.

  19. Jeremy

    Aug 9, 2019 at 8:18 pm

    Well written Ryan. Could not agree more.
    Thank you

  20. NoTalentLefty

    Aug 9, 2019 at 8:01 pm

    Actually I think a healthy Tiger is still good for golf BUT he’s not healthy and the ones who called it are ostracized. Chamblee may not be PC but he was right on Tiger. When Tiger looked like he was back he knew it by observation. The players may hate him but he speaks as he sees it We need that kind of objective eye reporting on golf.

  21. JThunder

    Aug 9, 2019 at 8:01 pm

    There are better role models for 10-year-old kids to watch. Great golfers who don’t string together 10 expletives with every bad shot, or cheat on their wife (and kids’ mother) with 300 women.

    • Alex Taylor

      Aug 10, 2019 at 6:58 am

      Couldn’t agree more. I continue to be amazed at how many people fawn over Tiger. Just about the worst possible role model.

      • David Burlett

        Aug 11, 2019 at 1:24 pm

        And we all know you had a perfect life! Your just a hater, period!

        • Alex Taylor

          Aug 13, 2019 at 8:05 am

          Well, I’m not a hater but I do hate it when people are unable to use proper grammar…..”Your just a hater, period!”…..Really??? Try this next time: “You’re just a hater, period!” People whill taik yew moor ceereslee wen yoo yeus guud grammer.

        • JThunder

          Aug 14, 2019 at 12:15 pm

          Leading a “perfect life” is not a prerequisite for what I wrote. Nor would I expect it of Tiger. I did manage to divorce my wife without cheating on her with 300 women (not even one woman)… and I haven’t frequently yelled string of expletives with thousands or more kids watching me.

          With his great stature and ludicrous income come some responsibility. With promises made to his (ex) wife and implied to his children come some responsibility. As I said, simply, “there are better role models”.

          Yes, his golf talent is one of the greatest the game has seen. There are many, many other great players in good health worthy of watching. Golf will survive his departure just as it did Tom Morris, Bobby Jones, Jack Nicklaus, et al. And some future generation will see records broken again. (Assuming the world survives).

    • Chris Leadbetter

      Aug 10, 2019 at 7:52 am

      And I bet you voted for our President

      • Alex Taylor

        Aug 10, 2019 at 9:38 am

        Nope……nice try.

      • Cody

        Aug 11, 2019 at 12:34 pm

        I voted for this pres. And will miss tiger…

      • JThunder

        Aug 14, 2019 at 12:10 pm

        I hope you don’t mean me, as I most absolutely, certainly, vehemently did not.

    • Scott Bangerter

      Aug 10, 2019 at 3:39 pm

      Stop thinking athletes should be counted as “moral” role models. They are just as human as anyone else; and as such have failings. Tiger is and always will be a GOLF role model. Tenacious. Dedicated to his craft. Unrelenting. Intimidating. And at the end of the day (read career) will have accomplished more than most could ever dream of. Broke more records. Held world number for most number of weeks consecutively and cumulatively. And, ultimately transformed the game more than any other golfer during his or any other generation. *drops mic*

    • Shaun

      Aug 11, 2019 at 2:17 am

      So your a famous celebrity with super models trying to get that notch . I’ve never cheated but I can solely say it would be damn hard as the most famous athlete on the planet for 20 years

    • Mike

      Aug 11, 2019 at 9:52 am

      Wow, still holding on to that? It’s been 10+ years ago. Enlighten us, how did Tiger’s philandering personally affect you to the point where you’re still ‘hating’? I didn’t like the Tiger ‘person’ back then but he’s been humbled so much that exactly what in his lifestyle now is “wrong”? He’s a single dad w/ back issues trying to get out & play golf. Sounds like millions of other guys. And regarding ‘role models for kids’, I’m my kid’s ‘role model'(as every dad s/b).

      • JThunder

        Aug 15, 2019 at 11:52 pm

        Enlighten me; why do I have to like Tiger? Because *you* do? Because the golf media insists that I do? Am I not allowed to like and dislike what I choose? What if I disagree that he is “humble” now?

        Yes, “sound like millions of other guys”, expect that the entire sports world has elevated his status to hero, role model, legend, “Greatest of All Time”. AND, the entire sports world has financially compensated him for this status and worship FAR, FAR beyond any reasonable amount for smacking a golf ball.

        “I’m my kid’s role model”. A lot of dads think that. I wonder how many are correct? I hope you indeed are – moreover, I hope you’re worthy of it! I’d be willing to bet, unless you keep them locked in the basement, that they have other heroes and role models. If one is Tiger, I hope they know the difference between his work ethic and his dating ethics.

    • Sean

      Aug 11, 2019 at 11:11 am

      Tiger was the role model for most of these role models you speak of…

    • Brandon H

      Aug 12, 2019 at 8:40 am

      So should we all stop idolizing Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain as well? While we’re at it, should we try and dig up all the dirt on all of our favorite players in every sport? People idolize him for his golf ability and philanthropy, not because of what he did/does in his personal life. He failed as a spouse, but by all accounts, he has been a great Dad. He is the GOAT for a reason.

      • JThunder

        Aug 15, 2019 at 11:43 pm

        So you believe that even young kids are smart enough – and/or their parents are engaged enough in their lives – that they carefully pick and choose which specific things about their “heroes” that they emulate, while carefully disregarding others?

        I can think of at least one major country where the leader’s followers are certainly spending a LOT of time (and ammunition) emulating the worst of his behaviors (and words).

        I wonder how many people making this argument for Tiger would accept the same argument about Ozzy Osbourne? Yeah, forget the decades of drugs and decapitated animals – he’s a talented signer and songwriter! Kids know the difference!

  22. No fan ????

    Aug 9, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    I am also so sick of this Tiger ???? train, makes me sick he can be 7 shots back and the announcers say man if he can just birdie the last 8 holes he will when….give me a break. GWRX is also obsessed with Tiger , all this discussion about his decision to use lead tape on putter vs using a heavier putter. Believe me there’s a lot more exciting things in the golf world right now than TW ……smh

    • Monty Hall

      Aug 9, 2019 at 8:47 pm

      So let me get this straight, you are sick of Tiger talk on GolfWRX. So why are you here? My guess is you enjoy complaining about people that talk about Tiger on GolfWRX otherwise you would not be here. Remeber ignore the noise, focus on what you are interested in and everything else is “ghost”!

      • Aj

        Aug 9, 2019 at 9:55 pm

        No I’m just sick of the constant attention he is given while other golfers who are more deserving are ignored there is plenty of young talent on the tour without having to dwell on what he done 20 years ago move on

        • Brandon H

          Aug 12, 2019 at 8:43 am

          So are you mad that we still constantly talk about Michael Jordan? That’s what happens when you’re the GOAT, you get talked about FOREVER!!!!!

  23. Aj

    Aug 9, 2019 at 4:59 pm

    I will be glad when he’s done for good I am so tired of hearing about tiger tiger tiger if he’s playing in the tournament you see the all of his shots whether or not he’s in last place or first when he’s not playing in the tournament you still hear tiger did there’s tiger did that here please retire

    • Manny Upshaw

      Aug 10, 2019 at 2:00 am

      There are only 4 majors a year he has won one of them but your tired of a winning golfer????

  24. NICK

    Aug 9, 2019 at 4:20 pm

    TIGER WOODS WILL WIN AGAIN!

  25. Golf al

    Aug 9, 2019 at 4:12 pm

    Thank Tiger

  26. Brad Flacco

    Aug 9, 2019 at 3:43 pm

    You literally just copied this concept from the Mygolfspy owner post. Wow.

  27. JP

    Aug 9, 2019 at 3:20 pm

    Sucking up a little too much…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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