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Talking U.S. Open bets and the future of wagering on golf with a pro gambler

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We’ve been trying to catch up with Top Market Sports again since last year’s Masters, and I’m I pleased we were able to do so ahead of this year’s U.S. Open.

Dave, the owner of Top Market Sports, was kind enough to talk bankroll, futures betting, in-tournament plays, and what he sees on the horizon for legalized wagering on the game we all love.

Top Market, if you’re unaware, is the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts, so they’re a cut above ye olde punter or so-called betting “expert.”

Anyway, check out our conversation, below.

GolfWRX: Let’s talk about bankroll management during major championships. Do you bet more? Less? About the same?

Dave: Well it’s never the same. And the amounts myself and my clients put in play have nothing to do with the prestige level of the tournament. We bet more when we think we have a big edge. We bet less when the odds are tighter and our perceived edge is smaller. Having said that, bookmakers offer a bigger prop menu during major championship weeks. I’m really starting to dig into these props this AM. There are a few that I’m advising clients to really step out on.

GolfWRX: What are you hearing about weather and course conditions? Any off-the-path angles bettors ought to consider at Pebble?

Dave: Pebble is one of the most weather-dependent courses in the world. So this is one of those weeks where I’ll be monitoring the doppler almost as hard as I’m monitoring play. As far as predicting the weather goes? Good luck. I’d pay a lot of money to know how these winds are going to blow. This truly is a second-shot golf course, so exceptional iron play and an ability to work the ball will be required. The combination of the small greens and the diabolical rough surrounding them means that if your approach shot isn’t perfect, you’re just asking to make a big number. And that’s a big theme for us this week…the week of the blow-up hole. All or nothing situations. You could play yourself out of this tournament with one bad miss. The key becomes figuring out which guys are more susceptible to blow-up.

GolfWRX: Taking a look at the betting favorites, who’s the most attractive to you in the futures market this week? 

Dave: He’s not a true favorite, but I like Molinari at 35/1. Considering he’s already got a major, I don’t think he’ll have any scar tissue from what happened at the Masters. He’s the type of guy that’s not going to get rattled by a tough rub-of-the-green bad break on some bumpy Poa Annua. I also like Fowler at 22/1. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he’s not at least in the mix. Rickie’s missed one cut in the past 12 calendar months. His soft hands around these tricky greens will be an asset. Admittedly, I’ve been betting Fowler almost every time he’s teed it up recently, and don’t have much to show for it other than a 20/1 winner in Phoenix in February. But he’s sneaky experienced. He’s definitely not a kid anymore. This could finally be his week.

GolfWRX: What about a player with longer odds? Who stands out to you and why? Any players you’re looking to fade this week?

Dave: I just hammered Bubba Watson at 125/1 this morning. People seem to forget that Bubba is still ranked 20th in the OWGR. He’s obviously not afraid of the big spot, having two green jackets in his closet. And his shot making ability makes him the type of wild card that could just play out of his mind on any given week. He’s also quietly matured over the past few seasons. We haven’t seen him go completely off the rails lately. Knock on wood. One of my biggest calls of the week is to fade Jon Rahm. I have him missing the cut at +220 and I’m also pounding against him in a basket of matchups. I’d tell you why, but then I’d have to kill you.

GolfWRX: Fair enough! As a final question, I wanted to get your take on the PGA Tour’s embrace of sports betting. It was a bit surprising to me. Does it surprise you? What do you think the future of betting on golf looks like?

Dave: I love the Tour’s honesty. It’s just so refreshing, compared to some of the halfhearted comments we’ve heard from other leagues regarding gambling legislation. Commissioner Monahan deserves credit for not beating around the bush. He knows that there’s no better way to increase engagement. He also knows that gambling and the game of golf go hand-in-hand. Even hackers like you and me enjoy playing for some pocket change when we’re out there, right Ben? I’m gonna get a couple of bucks back from you the next time you’re in Vegas, by the way.

Seriously though, the future of golf betting is extremely bright, and to me, it has nothing to do with legislation. It has everything to do with technology and the advent of in-play wagering. (In-play wagers are bets that are made while a game or event is already in progress.) Golf lends itself beautifully to in-play wagering. Think about it…the time between shots gives the house enough time to hang odds and time for punters to bet into those odds.

Imagine sitting on your couch this weekend watching Pebble coverage with your phone in your hand. Here’s Tommy Fleetwood with his approach on the 8th. Will he be inside or outside 10 feet? Or here’s Dustin Johnson on the 14th. Will his drive be over or under 303 yards? Bookmakers know that people are going to be wagering directly from their phones. That’s why they got developers working 24/7 to build out these betting apps. From insider contacts I have both in Vegas and at major offshore operations, it’s my understanding that we’re less than 24 months out from having access to expanded golf betting markets like those two examples I just gave. It’s going to be wild. I can’t wait to go head to head with these bookmakers.

You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks (not just golf…MLB, NHL, NFL, MLB and more, too), free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports

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  1. JP

    Jun 11, 2019 at 9:26 pm

    Spieth to return in proper form!

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: How to never miss another putt

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Learn how your own anatomy is designed to roll the golf ball in the direction you want to start the putt without any interference or assistance on your behalf.

All you need is a system of predictions that will help you confirm that your putting stroke is pointed in the right direction. This is how you become a witness to gravity sinking the putt for you. This will become clear after you listen to the podcast and give this a try at a golf course near you!

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes or here to listen on Spotify.

Want more GolfWRX Radio? Check out our other shows (and the full archives for this show) below. 

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On Spec

On Spec: Bryson wins BIG and discussing the greatest combo sets

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Talking about Bryson – the most electric man in golf, his driving, putting, and one-length wedges. Plus breaking down the greatest forged combo sets of all time.

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes or here to listen on Spotify.

Want more GolfWRX Radio? Check out our other shows (and the full archives for this show) below. 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ways to Win: American Muscle in Detroit

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Bryson DeChambeau put quarantine to good use, putting on 40 pounds of muscle with a widely-documented diet of protein shakes and pizza. All that work in the gym paid off in a big way when he came from three back to overtake Matthew Wolff and win the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club.

Much has been said about DeChambeau’s newfound speed and ball speeds regularly breaking the 190 mph mark. To be honest, I really did not want to get pulled into writing an article about his driving, especially considering that his flatstick had quite a bit to do with his victory this weekend. However, once I started tracking his shots in V1 Game, it is hard not to be blown away by what he has done with the big stick.

Drive for Show?

After the opening nine of his first round, DeChambeau already had four drives longer than 340 yards. Bear in mind, two of those nine holes are par threes. The only drives that didn’t go past 320 yards were layups. On the 14th hole, he uncorked a 375-yard drive, and found the green with his second shot for a one-putt eagle. Maybe he hit a sprinkler head or ran down the cart path for 100 yards like he did at least once the previous week. However, just three holes later, on the 17th, his tee shot traveled 378 yards. The V1 Game screenshot shows that drive’s towering distance.

So, alright. I’m impressed. DeChambeau has found the cheat code to overpower golf courses, and the field. He apologized to course designer Donald Ross early in the week, knowing that the fairway bunkers just were not far enough out to keep him from blowing past them on the fly.

Now, 378-yard drives are one thing. There are a handful of long drivers that could easily hang with that, but Bryson was also incredibly accurate this week. He hit 33 of 56 fairways for just under 60 percent. Not bad. However, he did so while making only a single driving error on the week. (A Driving Error in V1 Game is a tee shot hit into a penalty or recovery situation)

On the 14th hole on Sunday, DeChambeau put a 355-yard tee shot behind some trees and was blocked from advancing to the green (a recovery situation). He then overcooked his punch-out into the lake for his only two ball-striking mistakes of the week. DeChambeau averaged more than 340 yards (when hitting driver) on the week for around 47 attempts. He did so without making mistakes! Wild.

Referring to the Strokes Gained Stack chart at the top of this article, DeChambeau gained an impressive 11.1 strokes on a typical field driving for the week. Now, the PGA Tour normalizes that data to the actual field and even then, he gained almost seven strokes with driving.

To say DeChambeau found the cheat code is a little unfair to all the work he has put in. Clearly, those gains are paying off on the golf course. However, DeChambeau has effectively found a way to separate from the field while being perfectly average with irons and in his short game. Here is the secret… Bryson can afford to be an average player from 150 yards if the rest of the field is 40 yards back, hitting from 190 yards.

The above screenshot from V1 Game shows DeChambeau averaged around 330 yards per day when all drives (including layups) were counted. Each day, he easily crossed the 350-yard barrier multiple times. V1 Game can help you track your driving distance should you want to work on similar gains.

Putt for Dough?

Setting the shock and awe factor aside, the fact remains that DeChambeau would not have won this tournament without 1) a little help from Wolff, who had five bogeys in his first 10 holes on Sunday, and 2) a really hot putter.

Again, DeChambeau was perfectly average with his approach game all week. He found a way, though, to routinely make long putts. On two of the four days, he crossed the 100-ft barrier for feet of putts made (which you can see tracked in the V1 Game round summary). On Thursday alone, DeChambeau made 138 ft of putts. Additionally, he only had a single three-putt for the entire week. Below is a summary of his putting performance for the week.

DeChambeau putted well this weekend, avoiding three putts and misses inside six feet, which are two critical keys to scoring you will see highlighted in the post-round performance tracking in V1 Game. Looking at his Strokes Gained: Putting, DeChambeau gained strokes in every bucket except for “From Less Than Three Feet,” where he had one short miss on the week. This phenomenal performance on the greens, particularly on Sunday, kept Wolff from ever getting too close.

Takeaways

DeChambeau put in the work and it is paying dividends. He has been in contention each week following the quarantine and shows no signs of stopping if he can keep his tee shots flying as straight as he has thus far. If he could figure out a way to just be slightly above average with the irons, he would be very difficult to catch.

Much can be learned from seeing how the pros manage the course and get it done from day to day with different parts of their game. The big takeaway this week: If you want to improve your Strokes Gained: Driving, find a reliable way to hit it farther. V1 Game can help you track your progress on the course as you try to hit those distance goals.

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