Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

What’s going on with the decline in putting on the PGA Tour?

Published

on

Watching the PGA Tour recently, I was struck by Frank Nobilo commenting on how professionals and their instructors work down to the smallest detail, a reflection on the intense competition on the PGA Tour and the fact that to be successful you cannot ignore anything. He made this comment with his thumb and forefinger barely not touching for emphasis.

That being the case, the numbers below should cause major introspection by every player and their coach. They are self-explanatory and have been verified by a third party expert who deals in putting data.

All figures are Shotlink data from the PGA Tour. To preclude undue influence by an anomaly years 2003-5 are averaged as are 2016-18

Average make percentage from 5 distances, 2003-2005 combined

  • 6 FEET: 71.98 percent
  • 8 FEET: 55.01 percent
  • 10 FEET: 43.26 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: 19.37 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: 5.96 percent

Average make percentage from the same 5 distances, 2015-2018

  • 6 FEET: 70.43 percent
  • 8 FEET: 53.54 percent
  • 10 FEET: 41.39 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: 18.80 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: 5.33 percent

Percent decrease 

  • 6 FEET: 1.55 percent
  • 8 FEET: 1.67 percent
  • 10 FEET: 1.87 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: .57 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: .83 percent

One comment, green conditions have been vetted to the point where they are not considered a culprit. Faster, yes, but pristine surfaces, and very consistent week to week. There are some outliers like the U.S. Open greens but they are included in the data shown and caused no significant spike for that week.

Further, on the subject of greens, today’s professional has booklets showing green patterns, high MOI putter heads, instruction from putting specialists, and caddies, expert green readers in their own right. Bottom line: if anything the greens help not hurt.

So your turn. Look at the data. Appoint yourself all-powerful guru to improve putting data. What would your plan, be? Oh and this little tidbit so you can earn a huge consulting fee: We took six players, three on either side of the halfway point, your solution resulted in a one-shot per TOURNAMENT improvement. Average INCREASE in earnings for the season: a smidge over $500K!

Your Reaction?
  • 118
  • LEGIT14
  • WOW9
  • LOL5
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP2
  • OB1
  • SHANK9

Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

41 Comments

41 Comments

  1. ChipNRun

    Jul 1, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Two factors to look at:

    * The Ban on anchor putting started in 2016. Segment out the players who anchored in 2015, and see if they had statistically significant difference in miss rates over the pre-rule non anchors. And, see if they made up lost ground in 2017 and 2018 seasons as they learned non-anchor putting.

    * Dave Pelz suggests that great ballstrikers are more likely to have putting problems than average ballstrikers. The reason: the right (or trailing arm) forearm rotation is stronger in great ballstrikers, and this can creep into the putting stroke and disrupt the pendulum motion. With the large number of players who regularly hit their drives 300+ yards, is it possible the we’re getting more great ballstrikers per top 250 than in earlier years? If so, do these players tend to miss more putts because of episodic forearm antics?

    • ChipNRun

      Jul 2, 2019 at 6:04 pm

      FOLLOWUP:

      Another article this week talks about “too much information” in greens books for various courses. Any chance that some info relating to the greens themselves might be flawed? After all, Bryson DeChambeau caused a stir by “remeasuring” some of the greens he faced each week. Did he discover upon pockets of flawed information?

  2. Tom

    Jun 25, 2019 at 5:41 am

    The issue isn’t within putting it’s outside putting. The element of putting isn’t as important in effecting the outcome as other elements-ie bombing the driver 350-375

  3. James

    Jun 25, 2019 at 2:49 am

    Surely this decrease relates to about one putt missed in every thousand or so (given how many players there are). So, surely nothing to really make a fuss about?

    • Geeber

      Jun 25, 2019 at 7:40 am

      Ummm. An average of 1% wouldn’t that be 10 putts per 1000?

  4. Howard Clark

    Jun 24, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    If they had “green reading books” back then, they couldn’t have putted either. Plus, mammoth grips; you can’t putt with a baseball bat handle.

  5. JP

    Jun 24, 2019 at 7:39 pm

    It’s not just length that goes into how difficult a putt is, break is a significant factor. Given a straight 6 ft. putt vs. a 6 footer with 6 inches of break, a much higher percentage of the straight putts will be made. I suspect that the tour greens are slightly faster now than in 2003, which makes putts with the same slope break more, thus they are more difficult. In addition, it’s possible that the tour pin positions have gotten slightly more difficult (both for approach shots and for putts) than they were from 2003-2005.

  6. DanQ

    Jun 24, 2019 at 5:32 pm

    Pga rule change. Green reading books level of detail changed 1/1/19. Correct?

    • Jaxon

      Jun 24, 2019 at 5:55 pm

      Maybe because guys hit it further and better. You had to putt fifteen years ago if you were a shortish hitter or medium hitter. Now bombs away and putting is not as comparable or relative from then to now.

  7. TheWeekendHackGolf

    Jun 24, 2019 at 4:00 pm

    Two things
    1) Anchoring ban went effective Jan 2016…really need to control for that.
    2) Very possible that putting just isn’t as important / rewarded as much anymore on the PGA. Game has gone the way of favoring the Brooks and DJ’s of the world, not Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson and Jordan Speith.

    ~IG @theweekendhackgolf

  8. Matt J

    Jun 24, 2019 at 9:58 am

    I feel like a lot has to do with putting style. Purely observational, but it seems that players are trying to die it in the hole more often. The ball will naturally break harder as it starts to lose speed just before reaching the cup. You still see guys like Tiger and Koepka staying agreesive and running it by 3-4 feet when they miss, but they seem to be the outliers.

    • Ted Noel

      Jun 25, 2019 at 8:36 am

      Dave Pelz has done studies on pristine greens with his True Roller gadget. Using 100 balls, he got valid numbers. The best results came with a putt speed to die the putt 17″ past the hole. “Dead speed” is a real problem. How often are we seeing putts die barely short of the hole? 17″ past would give a tap-in on the miss, and putts left short rarely fall.

  9. Stedman

    Jun 24, 2019 at 8:10 am

    Is have an observation: drivers, woods and irons are all regulated and are all very similar in weight size and shape across all manufacturer brands. Yet putters come in all shapes and sizes. You have trouble telling which irons a player uses unless you get close. But look at the difference in putters used by Jason day, Adam Scott, and Jordan Spieth. Maybe they should all use the same putter, then we’ll see who can really putt. And get rid of those stupid books. If I can’t get one why should they. They’re pros right?

    • liam

      Jun 24, 2019 at 9:22 am

      so if we make every 100m dash runner wear a size 10 shoe we’d find out who’s the fastest runner? no…i’d guess the fastest would be the runner who happens to fit that shoe.

      same for putting. which style of putter are you going to determine to be used by all. weight, alignment, length, color, feel….these are personal and you can’t simply take one putter and force all players in to it. you wouldn’t find the best putter, you’d find the player that best fits that putter.

  10. Geoffrey Holland

    Jun 24, 2019 at 3:42 am

    Players are so caught up in reading a book instead of reading the green that they’re bound to miss more putts. The book is usually someone else’s interpretation of how the green breaks and it’s not always correct. Players have to learn to read the greens themselves without the stupid books and they will get better.

  11. Jack

    Jun 24, 2019 at 12:22 am

    paralysis by analysis. Just read it, step up to it, and hit it. Players seize up less and deliver a better more confident stroke. Constant second guessing on an inexact art doesn’t make things better. Makes it worse.

  12. Rybo

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    It’s the ball. Dr. Paul Hurrion has known this for awhile.

    Go to 14:30.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qodg2Oe0LP4

    • JP

      Jun 24, 2019 at 7:30 pm

      Tiger won at Pebble with a solid ball (a Nike made by Bridgestone) in 2000. By 2003 everyone was playing ProV1’s or something similar. I don’t think there was a balata wound ball to be found on the PGA Tour by 2003.

  13. Scratchscorer

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:49 pm

    Because it’s compiled of a different generation of golfers. The younger players that took the place of the older players they replaced shoot lower scores overall, primarily because they hit it much further. They may not putt as well as the guys from yesteryear, but they hit it so much longer and end up with easier approach shots; they’re able to putt less efficiently and still shoot lower scores overall.

  14. Aaron Fisher

    Jun 23, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    Too much money. Players are playing in less events and that dilutes the field every week for your average tour event. Slightly weaker fields make for slightly weaker performance results.

    • liam

      Jun 24, 2019 at 9:26 am

      i think an argument can be made that strength of field is much harder today than a decade ago. today’s number 70 player is much much better than 2001 number 70 player.

  15. Greg

    Jun 23, 2019 at 6:02 pm

    Is it because putter heads have gotten heavier causing too much flex in the putter shaft and that is enough to cause more misses? Maybe if there was some sort of solution that made a stiffer, better putter shaft which could handle those heavier putter head weights? Hmmmmmm…..

    • Russ

      Jun 24, 2019 at 6:00 pm

      You are correct that putter heads are heavier and causing performance issues due to 50+ year old putter shaft technology. In fact, Barney is not out of the golf industry and has started a new company, BreakthroughGolfTechnology. He has designed a after-market shaft that reduces shaft torque from 1.9 to .9 which is a major improvement and allows the player to start the ball on line on a significantly greater percentage due to reduced face twisting. The shaft is called the Stability Shaft. The MSRP seems a little high until you realize you use a putter 24 – 36 times per round and provides the greatest numerical opportunities for total score improvement.
      To provide full transparency, after having Club Champion install the Stability Shaft on my two putters and testing them on both the course (Shot Scope) and SAM PuttLab system to confirm the improved results, I contacted BGT and now install them as part of my club repair business.

    • Gary McCormick

      Jun 25, 2019 at 10:37 am

      I see what you did there. Unfortunately, it’s nonsense. While the Stability Shaft may work well for some players based on feel and balance, there is no “flex problem” in modern putters dues to heavier heads being too much for a standard shaft to handle.

      The data that is presented on the Breakthrough Golf website that purports to depict displacement of the putter head about the vertical axis is, in fact, depicting vibration that does not affect the direction or speed of the ball coming off of the club face.

      I tested the Stability Shaft last year, having one swapped in to replace the standard counter-weighted shaft in my Odyssey Tank Cruiser Anser-style blade putter.
      https://willotheglenongolf.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-stability-shaft-how-good-for-your.html

      The balance and weight distribution – which is the major (or only, really…) performance contribution of the Stability Shaft – were quite different with the new shaft, and it was not until I installed a 50-gram SuperStroke counterweight in the grip that the modified putter felt right again (or better, at least.)

      A couple of weeks ago I removed the Stability Shaft and replaced it with a bog-standard, off the shelf, $10 steel putter shaft with a standard-size Odyssey pistol grip and the aforementioned 50-gram counterweight. This re-mod was a revelation, and transformed that putter’s performance in my hands. The improved weight distribution resulted in a higher head to grip MOI and a more consistent swing, which led to better distance control.

      Note that I am not saying that the Stability Shaft isn’t going to help some players. Putting is very much about feel and balance, and this shaft may work for some people; what I am saying, though, is that their claims about their shaft addressing some supposed shortcoming in standard steel shafts because new-style putter heads are so heavy that they cause a standard putter shaft to flex, is ridiculous.

  16. Sahil

    Jun 23, 2019 at 5:50 pm

    Because all players want to bomb it 350m and then chip ‘n putt. they focus way too much on driving.
    Every single tour pro can hit the green in regulation. Its putting and the short game that makes the difference

    • Tal

      Jun 24, 2019 at 11:32 pm

      This isn’t the case. The difference between the best strikers on tour and the rest is far greater than the best putters and the rest. This is clearly shown when you look at who the best iron players are vs who the best putters are. There’s a huge difference between just hitting a green and hitting a green in the right spot and only the best ball strikers can hit the right spot the majority of the time. Chipping and putting is secondary to driving and approach play.

  17. gunmetal

    Jun 23, 2019 at 3:27 pm

    Combination of much of what has been said.

    1) Game is way more data driven with analytics and stats for everything (IE Aim point, green books, etc) and much less about feel.

    2) Spieth is a good example of the above. He didn’t used to be afraid to be unconventional (going left hand low before the masses) but now he won’t make any meaningful changes like arm lock, conventional, claw, etc. Why? I believe he’s stuck looking at stats.

    3) More 14 club deals from Callaway and maybe even TM which puts a lot of pressure on players to swap one putter for the latest and greatest. This could be a stretch and maybe I’m off, but there’s something to be said for keeping the flat stick constant. I think BK agrees.

    JMO

  18. Shallowface

    Jun 23, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Perhaps they have moved away (very very slightly) from the USGA recommendation of placing the hole in an area where it is as flat as possible three feet around the cup. Most of us never see that adhered to at the places we play, and many of our three footers are what I call “McDonald’s Putts” because the track of them looks like an arch. You rarely see a pro have to play any break on a three footer.

  19. Underachiever

    Jun 23, 2019 at 11:53 am

    Decreased cup size. ????

  20. Luis Nlazario

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:59 am

    It’s all about the dam new spikes and shoe soles!
    Old spike marks didn’t damaged surface, and helped!
    Yes there were a lot of players who didn’t know how to walk with them and damaged the greens. Yes because of them we’re suffering the consequences

    • Shallowface

      Jun 23, 2019 at 2:19 pm

      The ONLY reason for the advent of plastic spikes was to sell more replacement spikes. It was determined very quickly that they weren’t viable on shoes like the old leather soled FootJoy Classics, and then we started seeing what we have today. I can remember a time when “turf shoes” were specifically banned on courses in our area, but not anymore. Everyone was told that the greens would be so much better and the marks ate it up. You have no one to blame but yourselves.

    • Stump

      Jun 24, 2019 at 8:52 am

      The Chicken Little Syndrome…one person panics and everyone else follows along. It happened with coconut oil and popcorn, paper grocery bags,etc. It’s also happening with the distance debate. A few people with public pulpits are decrying the increase in driving distance and how it will ruin the game. Soon, they are going to roll back the ball and we will all suffer. One of two things will happen: One, we’ll all play the new ball and will be lucky to hit it 230 or 2. We bifurcate and we keep playing the current ball and the pros play the short ball then the advertising money will dry up because the ball companies won’t put money towards players that play balls that the consumer doesn’t.

  21. Gareth Jones

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:38 am

    Too much information maybe.

  22. Bill Rctor

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:13 am

    You need to learn the difference between “points” and “percentage”. We something you are measuring goes from 2% to 1%, it has not dropped 1%, it has dropped 1 point and 50%.

  23. HappydayJ

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:02 am

    Paralysis of Analysis, as Gary Player likes to say.

  24. Danny Bonin

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:55 am

    Players are paying more attention to driving and approach shots, they don’t need to putt as well to win today. Times have changed.

  25. Paul

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:40 am

    Better measurement technology?

  26. Christopher Barnes

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:09 am

    Super stroke grips

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

on

As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 13
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

Published

on

B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

Your Reaction?
  • 14
  • LEGIT4
  • WOW1
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK11

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 16
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW2
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB2
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending