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Opinion & Analysis

What’s going on with the decline in putting on the PGA Tour?

Published

5 years ago

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Watching the PGA Tour recently, I was struck by Frank Nobilo commenting on how professionals and their instructors work down to the smallest detail, a reflection on the intense competition on the PGA Tour and the fact that to be successful you cannot ignore anything. He made this comment with his thumb and forefinger barely not touching for emphasis.

That being the case, the numbers below should cause major introspection by every player and their coach. They are self-explanatory and have been verified by a third party expert who deals in putting data.

All figures are Shotlink data from the PGA Tour. To preclude undue influence by an anomaly years 2003-5 are averaged as are 2016-18

Average make percentage from 5 distances, 2003-2005 combined

  • 6 FEET: 71.98 percent
  • 8 FEET: 55.01 percent
  • 10 FEET: 43.26 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: 19.37 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: 5.96 percent

Average make percentage from the same 5 distances, 2015-2018

  • 6 FEET: 70.43 percent
  • 8 FEET: 53.54 percent
  • 10 FEET: 41.39 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: 18.80 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: 5.33 percent

Percent decrease 

  • 6 FEET: 1.55 percent
  • 8 FEET: 1.67 percent
  • 10 FEET: 1.87 percent
  • 15-20 FEET: .57 percent
  • 25 FEET AND BEYOND: .83 percent

One comment, green conditions have been vetted to the point where they are not considered a culprit. Faster, yes, but pristine surfaces, and very consistent week to week. There are some outliers like the U.S. Open greens but they are included in the data shown and caused no significant spike for that week.

Further, on the subject of greens, today’s professional has booklets showing green patterns, high MOI putter heads, instruction from putting specialists, and caddies, expert green readers in their own right. Bottom line: if anything the greens help not hurt.

So your turn. Look at the data. Appoint yourself all-powerful guru to improve putting data. What would your plan, be? Oh and this little tidbit so you can earn a huge consulting fee: We took six players, three on either side of the halfway point, your solution resulted in a one-shot per TOURNAMENT improvement. Average INCREASE in earnings for the season: a smidge over $500K!

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

41 Comments

41 Comments

  1. ChipNRun

    Jul 1, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Two factors to look at:

    * The Ban on anchor putting started in 2016. Segment out the players who anchored in 2015, and see if they had statistically significant difference in miss rates over the pre-rule non anchors. And, see if they made up lost ground in 2017 and 2018 seasons as they learned non-anchor putting.

    * Dave Pelz suggests that great ballstrikers are more likely to have putting problems than average ballstrikers. The reason: the right (or trailing arm) forearm rotation is stronger in great ballstrikers, and this can creep into the putting stroke and disrupt the pendulum motion. With the large number of players who regularly hit their drives 300+ yards, is it possible the we’re getting more great ballstrikers per top 250 than in earlier years? If so, do these players tend to miss more putts because of episodic forearm antics?

    Reply Report comment

    • ChipNRun

      Jul 2, 2019 at 6:04 pm

      FOLLOWUP:

      Another article this week talks about “too much information” in greens books for various courses. Any chance that some info relating to the greens themselves might be flawed? After all, Bryson DeChambeau caused a stir by “remeasuring” some of the greens he faced each week. Did he discover upon pockets of flawed information?

      Reply Report comment

  2. Tom

    Jun 25, 2019 at 5:41 am

    The issue isn’t within putting it’s outside putting. The element of putting isn’t as important in effecting the outcome as other elements-ie bombing the driver 350-375

    Reply Report comment

  3. James

    Jun 25, 2019 at 2:49 am

    Surely this decrease relates to about one putt missed in every thousand or so (given how many players there are). So, surely nothing to really make a fuss about?

    Reply Report comment

    • Geeber

      Jun 25, 2019 at 7:40 am

      Ummm. An average of 1% wouldn’t that be 10 putts per 1000?

      Reply Report comment

  4. Howard Clark

    Jun 24, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    If they had “green reading books” back then, they couldn’t have putted either. Plus, mammoth grips; you can’t putt with a baseball bat handle.

    Reply Report comment

  5. JP

    Jun 24, 2019 at 7:39 pm

    It’s not just length that goes into how difficult a putt is, break is a significant factor. Given a straight 6 ft. putt vs. a 6 footer with 6 inches of break, a much higher percentage of the straight putts will be made. I suspect that the tour greens are slightly faster now than in 2003, which makes putts with the same slope break more, thus they are more difficult. In addition, it’s possible that the tour pin positions have gotten slightly more difficult (both for approach shots and for putts) than they were from 2003-2005.

    Reply Report comment

  6. DanQ

    Jun 24, 2019 at 5:32 pm

    Pga rule change. Green reading books level of detail changed 1/1/19. Correct?

    Reply Report comment

    • Jaxon

      Jun 24, 2019 at 5:55 pm

      Maybe because guys hit it further and better. You had to putt fifteen years ago if you were a shortish hitter or medium hitter. Now bombs away and putting is not as comparable or relative from then to now.

      Reply Report comment

  7. TheWeekendHackGolf

    Jun 24, 2019 at 4:00 pm

    Two things
    1) Anchoring ban went effective Jan 2016…really need to control for that.
    2) Very possible that putting just isn’t as important / rewarded as much anymore on the PGA. Game has gone the way of favoring the Brooks and DJ’s of the world, not Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson and Jordan Speith.

    ~IG @theweekendhackgolf

    Reply Report comment

  8. Matt J

    Jun 24, 2019 at 9:58 am

    I feel like a lot has to do with putting style. Purely observational, but it seems that players are trying to die it in the hole more often. The ball will naturally break harder as it starts to lose speed just before reaching the cup. You still see guys like Tiger and Koepka staying agreesive and running it by 3-4 feet when they miss, but they seem to be the outliers.

    Reply Report comment

    • Ted Noel

      Jun 25, 2019 at 8:36 am

      Dave Pelz has done studies on pristine greens with his True Roller gadget. Using 100 balls, he got valid numbers. The best results came with a putt speed to die the putt 17″ past the hole. “Dead speed” is a real problem. How often are we seeing putts die barely short of the hole? 17″ past would give a tap-in on the miss, and putts left short rarely fall.

      Reply Report comment

  9. Stedman

    Jun 24, 2019 at 8:10 am

    Is have an observation: drivers, woods and irons are all regulated and are all very similar in weight size and shape across all manufacturer brands. Yet putters come in all shapes and sizes. You have trouble telling which irons a player uses unless you get close. But look at the difference in putters used by Jason day, Adam Scott, and Jordan Spieth. Maybe they should all use the same putter, then we’ll see who can really putt. And get rid of those stupid books. If I can’t get one why should they. They’re pros right?

    Reply Report comment

    • liam

      Jun 24, 2019 at 9:22 am

      so if we make every 100m dash runner wear a size 10 shoe we’d find out who’s the fastest runner? no…i’d guess the fastest would be the runner who happens to fit that shoe.

      same for putting. which style of putter are you going to determine to be used by all. weight, alignment, length, color, feel….these are personal and you can’t simply take one putter and force all players in to it. you wouldn’t find the best putter, you’d find the player that best fits that putter.

      Reply Report comment

  10. Geoffrey Holland

    Jun 24, 2019 at 3:42 am

    Players are so caught up in reading a book instead of reading the green that they’re bound to miss more putts. The book is usually someone else’s interpretation of how the green breaks and it’s not always correct. Players have to learn to read the greens themselves without the stupid books and they will get better.

    Reply Report comment

  11. Jack

    Jun 24, 2019 at 12:22 am

    paralysis by analysis. Just read it, step up to it, and hit it. Players seize up less and deliver a better more confident stroke. Constant second guessing on an inexact art doesn’t make things better. Makes it worse.

    Reply Report comment

  12. Rybo

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    It’s the ball. Dr. Paul Hurrion has known this for awhile.

    Go to 14:30.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qodg2Oe0LP4

    Reply Report comment

    • JP

      Jun 24, 2019 at 7:30 pm

      Tiger won at Pebble with a solid ball (a Nike made by Bridgestone) in 2000. By 2003 everyone was playing ProV1’s or something similar. I don’t think there was a balata wound ball to be found on the PGA Tour by 2003.

      Reply Report comment

  13. Scratchscorer

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:49 pm

    Because it’s compiled of a different generation of golfers. The younger players that took the place of the older players they replaced shoot lower scores overall, primarily because they hit it much further. They may not putt as well as the guys from yesteryear, but they hit it so much longer and end up with easier approach shots; they’re able to putt less efficiently and still shoot lower scores overall.

    Reply Report comment

  14. Aaron Fisher

    Jun 23, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    Too much money. Players are playing in less events and that dilutes the field every week for your average tour event. Slightly weaker fields make for slightly weaker performance results.

    Reply Report comment

    • liam

      Jun 24, 2019 at 9:26 am

      i think an argument can be made that strength of field is much harder today than a decade ago. today’s number 70 player is much much better than 2001 number 70 player.

      Reply Report comment

  15. Greg

    Jun 23, 2019 at 6:02 pm

    Is it because putter heads have gotten heavier causing too much flex in the putter shaft and that is enough to cause more misses? Maybe if there was some sort of solution that made a stiffer, better putter shaft which could handle those heavier putter head weights? Hmmmmmm…..

    Reply Report comment

    • Russ

      Jun 24, 2019 at 6:00 pm

      You are correct that putter heads are heavier and causing performance issues due to 50+ year old putter shaft technology. In fact, Barney is not out of the golf industry and has started a new company, BreakthroughGolfTechnology. He has designed a after-market shaft that reduces shaft torque from 1.9 to .9 which is a major improvement and allows the player to start the ball on line on a significantly greater percentage due to reduced face twisting. The shaft is called the Stability Shaft. The MSRP seems a little high until you realize you use a putter 24 – 36 times per round and provides the greatest numerical opportunities for total score improvement.
      To provide full transparency, after having Club Champion install the Stability Shaft on my two putters and testing them on both the course (Shot Scope) and SAM PuttLab system to confirm the improved results, I contacted BGT and now install them as part of my club repair business.

      Reply Report comment

    • Gary McCormick

      Jun 25, 2019 at 10:37 am

      I see what you did there. Unfortunately, it’s nonsense. While the Stability Shaft may work well for some players based on feel and balance, there is no “flex problem” in modern putters dues to heavier heads being too much for a standard shaft to handle.

      The data that is presented on the Breakthrough Golf website that purports to depict displacement of the putter head about the vertical axis is, in fact, depicting vibration that does not affect the direction or speed of the ball coming off of the club face.

      I tested the Stability Shaft last year, having one swapped in to replace the standard counter-weighted shaft in my Odyssey Tank Cruiser Anser-style blade putter.
      https://willotheglenongolf.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-stability-shaft-how-good-for-your.html

      The balance and weight distribution – which is the major (or only, really…) performance contribution of the Stability Shaft – were quite different with the new shaft, and it was not until I installed a 50-gram SuperStroke counterweight in the grip that the modified putter felt right again (or better, at least.)

      A couple of weeks ago I removed the Stability Shaft and replaced it with a bog-standard, off the shelf, $10 steel putter shaft with a standard-size Odyssey pistol grip and the aforementioned 50-gram counterweight. This re-mod was a revelation, and transformed that putter’s performance in my hands. The improved weight distribution resulted in a higher head to grip MOI and a more consistent swing, which led to better distance control.

      Note that I am not saying that the Stability Shaft isn’t going to help some players. Putting is very much about feel and balance, and this shaft may work for some people; what I am saying, though, is that their claims about their shaft addressing some supposed shortcoming in standard steel shafts because new-style putter heads are so heavy that they cause a standard putter shaft to flex, is ridiculous.

      Reply Report comment

  16. Sahil

    Jun 23, 2019 at 5:50 pm

    Because all players want to bomb it 350m and then chip ‘n putt. they focus way too much on driving.
    Every single tour pro can hit the green in regulation. Its putting and the short game that makes the difference

    Reply Report comment

    • Tal

      Jun 24, 2019 at 11:32 pm

      This isn’t the case. The difference between the best strikers on tour and the rest is far greater than the best putters and the rest. This is clearly shown when you look at who the best iron players are vs who the best putters are. There’s a huge difference between just hitting a green and hitting a green in the right spot and only the best ball strikers can hit the right spot the majority of the time. Chipping and putting is secondary to driving and approach play.

      Reply Report comment

  17. gunmetal

    Jun 23, 2019 at 3:27 pm

    Combination of much of what has been said.

    1) Game is way more data driven with analytics and stats for everything (IE Aim point, green books, etc) and much less about feel.

    2) Spieth is a good example of the above. He didn’t used to be afraid to be unconventional (going left hand low before the masses) but now he won’t make any meaningful changes like arm lock, conventional, claw, etc. Why? I believe he’s stuck looking at stats.

    3) More 14 club deals from Callaway and maybe even TM which puts a lot of pressure on players to swap one putter for the latest and greatest. This could be a stretch and maybe I’m off, but there’s something to be said for keeping the flat stick constant. I think BK agrees.

    JMO

    Reply Report comment

  18. Shallowface

    Jun 23, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Perhaps they have moved away (very very slightly) from the USGA recommendation of placing the hole in an area where it is as flat as possible three feet around the cup. Most of us never see that adhered to at the places we play, and many of our three footers are what I call “McDonald’s Putts” because the track of them looks like an arch. You rarely see a pro have to play any break on a three footer.

    Reply Report comment

  19. Underachiever

    Jun 23, 2019 at 11:53 am

    Decreased cup size. ????

    Reply Report comment

  20. Luis Nlazario

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:59 am

    It’s all about the dam new spikes and shoe soles!
    Old spike marks didn’t damaged surface, and helped!
    Yes there were a lot of players who didn’t know how to walk with them and damaged the greens. Yes because of them we’re suffering the consequences

    Reply Report comment

    • Shallowface

      Jun 23, 2019 at 2:19 pm

      The ONLY reason for the advent of plastic spikes was to sell more replacement spikes. It was determined very quickly that they weren’t viable on shoes like the old leather soled FootJoy Classics, and then we started seeing what we have today. I can remember a time when “turf shoes” were specifically banned on courses in our area, but not anymore. Everyone was told that the greens would be so much better and the marks ate it up. You have no one to blame but yourselves.

      Reply Report comment

    • Stump

      Jun 24, 2019 at 8:52 am

      The Chicken Little Syndrome…one person panics and everyone else follows along. It happened with coconut oil and popcorn, paper grocery bags,etc. It’s also happening with the distance debate. A few people with public pulpits are decrying the increase in driving distance and how it will ruin the game. Soon, they are going to roll back the ball and we will all suffer. One of two things will happen: One, we’ll all play the new ball and will be lucky to hit it 230 or 2. We bifurcate and we keep playing the current ball and the pros play the short ball then the advertising money will dry up because the ball companies won’t put money towards players that play balls that the consumer doesn’t.

      Reply Report comment

  21. Gareth Jones

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:38 am

    Too much information maybe.

    Reply Report comment

  22. Bill Rctor

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:13 am

    You need to learn the difference between “points” and “percentage”. We something you are measuring goes from 2% to 1%, it has not dropped 1%, it has dropped 1 point and 50%.

    Reply Report comment

  23. HappydayJ

    Jun 23, 2019 at 10:02 am

    Paralysis of Analysis, as Gary Player likes to say.

    Reply Report comment

  24. Danny Bonin

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:55 am

    Players are paying more attention to driving and approach shots, they don’t need to putt as well to win today. Times have changed.

    Reply Report comment

  25. Paul

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:40 am

    Better measurement technology?

    Reply Report comment

  26. Christopher Barnes

    Jun 23, 2019 at 9:09 am

    Super stroke grips

    Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

15 hours ago

on

Apr 18, 2024

By

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

16 hours ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

4 days ago

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Apr 15, 2024

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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