Opinion & Analysis
The Wedge Guy: Is your driver the first “scoring club”?
I was traveling Sunday and didn’t get to watch the end of the PGA Championship, so imagine my shock Monday morning when I read what had happened on that back nine. Like most everyone, I figured Brooks Koepka had his game and his emotions completely under control and Sunday’s finish would be pretty boring and anti-climactic. Man, were we wrong!!?
As I read the shot-by-shot, disaster-by-disaster account of what happened on those few holes, I have to admit my somewhat cynical self became engaged. I realize the conditions were tough, but it still boils down to the fact that Koepka nearly lost this PGA Championship because he couldn’t execute what I call “basic golf” – hitting fairways and greens – when it counted. And Dustin Johnson lost his ability to do the same just as he got within striking distance.
I’ve long been a critic of the way the game has come to be played at the highest levels; what we used to call “bomb and gouge” has become the norm at the professional tour level. These guys are big strong athletes, and they go at it harder than anyone ever did in “the old days”. Watch closely and you’ll see so many of them are on their toes or even off the ground at impact, especially with the driver. Call me old-fashioned, but I just don’t see how that can be the path to consistent shotmaking.
So, my curiosity then drove me to the year-to-date statistics on the PGA Tour website to dive into this a bit deeper. What I found was quite interesting, and I believe can be helpful to all of you readers as you think about how to lower your handicap this season. Follow me here, as I think there are some very helpful numbers from the PGA Tour.
I’ve long contended that golf is a game of ball control . . . let’s call it shotmaking. Your personal strength profile will determine whether you are a long hitter or not, and there’s probably not a lot you can do (or will do) to change that dramatically. But PGA Tour statistics indicate that accuracy, not distance, is the key to better scoring.
The Tour leader in driving accuracy is Jim Furyk, the only guy who is hitting more than 75% of the fairways. The Tour average is under 62%, or not even 2 out of 3. That means the typical round has the tour professional playing at least 4-5 approach shots from the rough. I’m going to come back to that in just a moment and explore the “cost” of those missed fairways.
The Tour leader in greens-in-regulation is Tiger Woods at 74%, almost 3-out-of-4 . . . but the Tour average is less than 66%, or just under 2-out-of-3. I believe enlightenment comes by breaking that GIR statistic down even further.
From the fairway, the Tour leader in GIR is Justin Thomas at 85% and the worst guy at 65%, three points better than the tour average for GIR overall. Hmmmmm. From the rough, however, the best guy on Tour is Taylor Gooch at 63.4%, which is not as good as the very last guy from the fairway.
But let’s dive even a bit deeper to better understand the importance of driving accuracy. Is it true these guys are so good from the rough that hitting fairways doesn’t matter? Not according to the numbers.
From the rough in the range of 125-150 yards – a wedge for most of these guys – the tour’s best hit it 25-27 feet from the hole and only 30 tour pros are averaging inside 30 feet from that distance. But from the fairway, 25 yards further back – 150-175 yards – the tour’s best hit it inside 21-23 feet, and 160 guys are getting closer than 30 feet on average. Even from 175-200 in the fairway, the best on tour hit it closer than the best on tour from the rough 50 yards closer.
So, what do you do with this information? I encourage any serious golfer to really analyze your own rounds to see the difference in your scoring on holes where you find the fairway versus those where you don’t. I feel certain you’ll find throttling back a bit with your driver and focusing more on finding the fairway, rather than trying to squeeze a few more yards of the tee will help you shoot lower scores.
If you have the inclination to see what more fairways can do to your own scores, here’s a little experiment for you. Get a buddy or two for a “research round” and play this game: When you miss a fairway, walk the ball straight over to the fairway, and then 15 yards back. So, you’ll hit every approach from the fairway, albeit somewhat further back – see what you shoot.
Next week I’m going to follow up this “enlightenment” with some tips and techniques that I feel certain will help you hit more fairways so you can take this to the bank this season.
- LIKE266
- LEGIT16
- WOW4
- LOL3
- IDHT4
- FLOP5
- OB5
- SHANK42
19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
- LIKE26
- LEGIT5
- WOW1
- LOL1
- IDHT1
- FLOP2
- OB0
- SHANK1
19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters
The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
- LIKE51
- LEGIT9
- WOW4
- LOL1
- IDHT2
- FLOP2
- OB2
- SHANK7
19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters
We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
- LIKE9
- LEGIT5
- WOW3
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK3
-
19th Hole1 week ago
Dave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Things got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why
-
19th Hole1 week ago
Tiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Report: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole3 days ago
Two star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters
-
19th Hole2 days ago
Neal Shipley presser ends in awkward fashion after reporter claims Tiger handed him note on 8th fairway
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Addiction, spinal fusion, and scam artists – Everything Anthony Kim revealed in candid interview with David Feherty
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Anthony Kim says doctors told him that he ‘may not have much time left’ ahead of LIV return
SteelyDan
May 23, 2019 at 12:30 pm
Tour players are not trying to maximize distance. They make concessions for accuracy. On average, they hit down with the driver. Great article.
Daniel Kidd
May 23, 2019 at 6:08 am
I see both sides of the debate. From experience, I see what you are saying Terry, but I also agree with some of the naysayers in the comments too. On the one hand, I have almost always found a 330 yd hole more difficult when I bash driver as hard as I can, rather than hitting to the 100 yd marker and wedging in. It’s rare when laying back that I make worse than par, and I make about the same number of birdies. Definitely make more bogeys when hammering away.
On the flip side, the pro game is different from ours, and their skill with the half shots and from the rough is so good they can get away with bashing it off the tee and attacking all the par 5’s (even if they can’t reach them all in two). Plus, the rough at the courses we usually play isn’t as penal as tour rough.
I did find it fascinating that the worst GIR player from the fairway is better at hitting greens than the best player from the rough. You’d think that stat would have some of the pros thinking of placing more emphasis on finding fairways.
Sahil
May 23, 2019 at 2:50 am
I get what Terry is saying. To discount the driver, in my opinion can hinder your game, although at my club games there are few guys who use only an iron of the tee and they play off a 10 H.I and less but none are less than 7. The guys who really play well (H.I of 8 and less) hit driver consistently and fairly accurately. But I think “do what ever it takes to keep your ball in play”.
The consistent club winners do this consistently.
Bob Jones
May 22, 2019 at 7:23 pm
Terry, accurate is good, but so is long. It is not true that if you hit the ball farther you will always be in the weeds.
I can dial back my tee shots so I always land them in the fairway. But if I hit my normal tee shot and miss four fairways, and am 25-50 yards longer every time (to use your yardage), I am going to shoot a lower score because on those ten holes I hit the fairway I will be using an easier club to hit into the green, and that more than makes up for the fairways I miss, which will not always cost me the loss of a stroke anyway. I keep records. Of the holes were I get a par or birdie, I miss the fairway about half the time. I get away with it because I don’t miss by much and the rough we play from on recreational courses isn’t punitive.
As for hitting greens, I score lots of pars by getting up and down from greenside. GIR is overrated, if you ask me.
Jamie Collis
May 22, 2019 at 7:18 pm
I learnt to play golf in Canada and the US and the rough is manicured compared to the Australian courses I now play. The Australian rough consists of gras tuffs, bare lies and uneven ground and as a HC 9 I find it difficult to hit greens from these lies. For this reason, the foundation for my best rounds are long drives in the middle of the fairway which makes it easier to hit greens in the 2 club winds we typically play in.
Pelling
May 22, 2019 at 6:06 pm
Brooks Koepka hit a gap wedge 160 yards to one foot on #10 for birdie. That seemed to be his scoring club. The ball goes too far.
Drew
May 22, 2019 at 2:34 pm
I find it comical that many GolfWRXers apply articles they read about statistical analysis on the tour to their own game, as if they are playing “the same” game. Realistically, as pointed out many times in these comments, you are not playing the same game as the pros. You are playing shorter courses, you are playing shorter/thinner rough, you are not as precise with your ball striking, you are not as accurate with your distance control, and you are not as accurate in general at navigating your shots as the Pros.
I’d like to add a couple points to Terry’s case about the advantages of hitting the fairways that he didn’t touch on, but I feel greatly affect the recreational golfer’s success on the course because of our lack of precision and accuracy compared to the pros. From the fairway, the impedance of overhanging trees is dramatically eliminated, our angle to the pin is greatly improved, and the visual aesthetics of the hole are generally better (for example seeing the front of the green instead of only a giant bunker). These are all things that improve a recreational golfers confidence when standing over the ball for their second shot, and confidence is something all recreational golfers need more of. Outside of the fact that we cannot shape the ball left or right to miss a tree and still hit the green, or flight a punch out to roll up accurately from 150 away, or be assured we are going to get enough club on the ball out of the rough to carry the bunker 125 yards away like the pros can, we just simply do not play the same game as them. We need clean, confidence inspiring looks.
As a more general statement to take away from all this, off the tee you should hit the absolute longest club you can that will not get you into trouble a significant portion of the time. If Driver could roll through the fairway and put you under a tree, take 3W and assure yourself you will have a look at the green. If rolling through the fairway still gives you an unimpeded shot to the green, then take driver. Manage your game, do not just think because Brooks and DJ can bomb and gouge that you should too.
Terry B Koehler
May 22, 2019 at 10:12 am
Thank you all for sounding off and “taking it to me”. I apparently did not make my point as I had intended. I agree with all the comments that the long hitters on tour are dominating, and probably will from now on. And I have great respect for Mark Brodie’s work. But our games are a far cry from theirs, and the courses we play are much different, as several of you pointed out. The point I was trying to make — and apparently did not do very well — is that even tour professionals are not nearly as good at hitting greens and getting it close from the rough as they are from the fairway even 25-50 yards further back. Given that statistical insight, it would make sense that this would apply to us recreational golfers as well, wouldn’t it? From my personal observations, scoring is just easier for all of us when we keep the drives in the fairway, just as it is for tour players. And that we probably suffer more from errant drives than they do, because we do not have their skills around the greens. Finally, I was trying to communicate that most recreational golfers are not going to make the physical commitment to change their body with lots of gym work to continually add yards; given that, working on hitting more fairways would probably help lower scores.
Thanks again to all of you for sounding off, though. That keeps me on my toes.
Barney Puttick
May 23, 2019 at 3:43 am
Great article Terry, and as a coach I will use your thoughts with my recreational students , as I agree the fairway is the way to go !
jgpl001
May 22, 2019 at 5:43 am
The wedge guy is correct but the the ave club player and the ave tour pro was never further apart – in 1970 the ave club hcp was 18 and today it is 18, but the stats on tour across this period is startling
On the PGA tour short hitters rarely win – a wedge from the rough for these guys is preferable to 6 iron from the fairway
I don’t see any new OEM drivers boast about more “accuracy” or talk about “dialling it back a little”
We have been conditioned for “more speed”, “everyone gets faster”, etc.
For me I know if I keep it in play I score well, if not I don’t – simple, but as a dedicated ho I will always looks for anything that give me an extra yard….and I am not a short hitter…
JP
May 21, 2019 at 10:59 pm
Terry K got schooled here.
Stephen Peltier
May 21, 2019 at 10:36 pm
I’ve actually done a lot of deep analysis on this, even threw some AI machine learning at it and my conclusions are as follows. People that can hit the golf ball well score better than people who suck at hitting the golf ball.
Steve Wozeniak PGA
May 21, 2019 at 10:10 pm
Terry,
Golf wrks readers know a little more than you thought huh!!!!!!
No worries you will do better next time.
Steve Wozeniak PGA
Alex
May 21, 2019 at 6:20 pm
Because you’ll win your club championship in a scratch division going 69, 70 or something like that on a course that rates out at 74 or so. On a PGA tour course that rates out 78 or 79 at least with way faster green, more tucked pins, and even longer rough a 69 and 70 will make cut but thats about it most likely. I agree to the average or even club scratch golfer being “long enough” and hitting fairways and greens is the way to go…most of us don’t have the 63 gear in us even at our own home comfy track. The sport the guys on tv play might as well be another sport. Every week somebody gets hot and goes low 60’s and its a birdie fest. If we go out and got 69 70 in a 2 day tournament thats probably 7/10 birdies depending how you attack par 5s. Every week somebody has one round that they make that many birdies and they sit atop the leaderboard and so on and so forth and it becomes a tournament for racehorses and we see them get deeper than 15 most weeks. The way they are doing that is basically putting all their eggs in the basket of attacking par 5’s the random short par 4 and rolling the dice that the driver makes more birdies happen and worry about worse results later. The majority of us are trying to post scores to get a better handicap, the majority of them are trying to make money and either win majors and be hall of famers, win tournaments and then a major, finish top 10 and then a win, make cuts and ultimately keep their card. There is some young bomber waiting on the Web that is capable of shooting 62 and taking a journey man’s card. They are full sprint all the time on tour cause if its their week they go all out to win because it might not happen ever again. Us mere mortals will shoot another 71 or 69 or whatever before summers end and the way to shoot a bunch of low to mid 70’s doing it is fairways and greens. They are also just a lot more talented than all of us and that’s a hard pill for most of us to swallow, but the truth hurts.
PSG
May 21, 2019 at 6:16 pm
*sighs*
Basic things seem somewhat beyond this guy.
Why would a guy playing to shoot the best score he can use the same strategy as a pro who either wins the tournament or doesn’t care?
The pros play bomb and gauge because there is a 70 person field and somebody in that field who plays bomb and gauge will win. We don’t have a 70 person field, Terry. The two goals are completely different. The pros are not trying to shoot their best average score over time, they’re trying to spike a tournament.
Zach
May 21, 2019 at 5:22 pm
I agree with the people saying to A) read Every Shot Counts and B) that you need to consider the courses most Ams play vs. the ones PGA tour pro’s play. The greens that probably 90% of us play on are slow, maybe the nicest ones stimp around 9 or 10; Those greens are much slower and softer than what is on tour. I can afford to bomb the ball into the rough at my courses because I can easily hold a green with a wedge from the rough, whereas guys on Tour still might see significant run out on firm and fast greens, even from 130 yards away.
Also consider the rough on most courses that the Tour stops at is much thicker and longer than what majority of us see. The rough at Bethpage was unreal…and how many courses have fescue like that? Only in certain areas.
DJ and Brooks vs guys like Chez Reavie and Furyk … Who are you betting on to win the next major? Tiger literally made a career out of being the longest guy out there, fairways were an after thought. He was so good from the rough it didn’t matter.
T
May 21, 2019 at 7:34 pm
Eldrick was able to escape from the rough because of square grooves. Yes he thrived in that era.
What was the one complaint from that time? That the rough didn’t mean anything as they could gouge it out and the ball still stayed on the green.
Don’t let his supposed skill fool you.
gery katona
May 21, 2019 at 4:59 pm
I’m just a 66 year old 15 handicapper that used to hit my drives about 220yds. But I changed my strategy and swing after reading some stats that show there isn’t very much correlation between fairways hit and GIR, or more importantly, scoring. I mainly apply lag with the driver as opposed to trying to muscle, or push the club into the ball and gained at least 20 yards, I would say more than that. The longer the drive, the easier all the rest of the shots are. Less club into the green means closer to the hole. Closer to the hole means fewer putts needed. The drive sets up the hole and distance cannot be ignored. Also, I play mostly public courses and a fair number of private ones as well. On most of those courses, the rough is not very consequential anyway, so just rip it the best you can. Now matter how weak you are, a longer drive helps anyone.
D
May 21, 2019 at 1:48 pm
Complete and utter tosh.
Where are the Stats singling out Bethpage, Shinnecock, Erin Hills or even Chambers Bay? Where are the driving stats and GIR stats from those majors?
The reason is obvious as to why I would talk about those: the Rough is more than twice as thick as at regular Tour stops.
Even the week before Bethpage. That Trinity Forest course has NO rough. None. Wide open fairway. The penalty was missing greens, greens that have rolling drop offs and slick slopes al around.
Your article is shyte.
The reason why the feet have to come off the ground for the driver compared to the old days of Persimmon is because the ball is 2 inches off the ground on a tee now, when the ball was barely ¼ inch off the ground in the old days.
Doug
May 21, 2019 at 1:35 pm
Mr Koehler, read “Every Shot Counts” by Mark Broadie to see how to actually apply the math you are speaking of and realize it supports the opposite of your conclusion. Within the skill range of PGA tour players, distance is one of the biggest determining factors of success.
Leave actual math analysis to trained professionals. This opinion piece degrades your credibility.
Jack Attack
May 21, 2019 at 4:23 pm
I’ll second Doug’s comments. Broadie’s book provides a framework on how to accurately breakdown and understand where players are better or worse than the field. The speculation in this article is just wrong and a waste of time.
Do us all a favor and read Mark Broadie’s book, and then come back with a new & informed piece for WRX.
Scratchscorer
May 21, 2019 at 5:13 pm
I’ll third that. Read the book and you will have an understanding of how much distance matters.
Kyle
May 21, 2019 at 5:37 pm
Yep. The math doesn’t lie. There is a reason these “bomb and gougers” are so successful.
Payton
May 21, 2019 at 1:21 pm
You forgot to account for the fact nobody hits 100% fairways. Missing 2 more fairways and having wedge instead of 7 iron means you will make up strokes through your round. The biggest gains for average players isn’t squeezing out a few more yards, unless your hard swings squeeze 10+ more yards, it’s about not hitting 3 wood or other shorter clubs. The 20+ yards lost by clubbing down are a significant loss if it’s not required by the hole.
Bones
May 21, 2019 at 12:25 pm
People have already done the math on this and this isn’t exactly the result. Maybe read what Mark Broadie & Scott Fawcett have to say on the subject…
Scratchscorer
May 21, 2019 at 5:17 pm
Exactly. I don’t understand how articles that contradict the statistics are still being perpetuated as true. This is golf propaganda.
NYCBethpageBlack
May 21, 2019 at 11:55 am
Reality is most of the courses on the PGA allow for bomb and gouge. They are typically very long and many are fairly open with relatively wide fairways and the rough/trees don’t really destroy your scoring ability until you are way out of the fairway. Take the TPC courses for example. I have played 6 different TPC courses, and even when on my bad driving days, I still shoot in the mid-low 80s from the tips (Registered HCP is ~10).
And then there is Bethpage black. I play there 2-3x yearly and while trees are rarely in play, the deep rough is 3 feet or less from the fairway. If I don’t drive the ball well on the Black course, I will not break 90. Period.
We all saw that second shot DJ hit on #1 this weekend that went about 40 yards, right? That ball was less that 12 feet from being in the fairway. On most TPC courses he can still hit that shot on the green with some spin to boot; on the black course, he couldn’t even get it halfway to the hole.
The reason guys play golf the way they do now is that the majority of the courses got longer after the Tiger era, but only some punish missing fairways. Sure, if you hit it into the woods or 20 yards off the fairway, all the PGA courses play difficult, but few will punish you like bethpage black if you are not flat on target.
Benny
May 21, 2019 at 11:00 am
TK15 Bad math and anedotal proof, you can do better.
Jeff
May 21, 2019 at 10:55 am
This may be true for amateur golfers but is far from the truth on the PGA. The longest players are far and away the best. You may not lose strokes from the fairway at 175 yds but the difference from being in the rough at 175 vs 125 is extremely different. If the best guy on tour is still only 3/4 fairways, that means 1/4 times he’s losing almost a full stroke by being 50 yds further back. There’s a reason why all the best players in the world are bombers. The misconception is that making the rough longer and the fairways narrower hurts those guys. It actually helps them because of how much larger a penalty it is to miss a fairway at 175 out vs 125 out.
Tom
May 21, 2019 at 10:29 am
Yeah, This is exactly why Chez Reavie is winning so many events… Oh… wait… Nevermind. If you look at the top ten in accuracy off the tee. you have 1 win in the last 2 years. If you look at the top 10 in distance you have 5. I think I would take the distance…
if you go out to top 20 in distance you have a lot more wins in the last two years. I counted 15 in think. If you go out to the top 20 in driving accuracy, the number is still 1.
So the money goes to distance.
Tom
May 21, 2019 at 10:31 am
correct that, you have 3 wins if you go out to the top 20 in accuracy, but distance still has it, by a long distance.
Luke
May 21, 2019 at 10:51 am
I think their has to be some correlation between the stronger drivers also having the strength and clubhead speed being able to get the ball out of the wicked lies in the rough they face more often.
Doesn’t mean the average golfer shouldn’t prioritize being in the short stuff.
Jeff
May 21, 2019 at 10:58 am
it’s more just that it’s easier to get the ball out of the rough with a wedge than it is with a 6i. I mean strength helps but loft makes the bigger difference here, imo.
Juststeve
May 21, 2019 at 10:12 am
Reality has been somewhat distorted by the way the governing bodies pick courses and set them up. Last week at the Black is a perfect example. By selecting that course the PGA eliminated about half the field, the half who are not bombers. The course conditions, damp and soft eliminated another 20%, those who can’t carry the ball a long way. As a result only a relative handful of golfers were really in it to win. Koepka was the best of that handful last week.
Consider now the results on a hypothetical different course, a Harbor Town or a Colonial for example. Now we have a tournament where most of the field has a real chance to compete, not just the longest hitter. We have a tournament where whoever has the best game throughout the bag has a shot at winning. More interesting in my opinion, but the networks like chicks did the big hitters.
I’d like to see courses that are more available to all first class golfers. Marion is a great example. Difficult to be sure, fair, and the best overall golfer of the week has a real chance to win.
Joe
May 21, 2019 at 9:20 am
I completely agree with this. Of course strong wedge play within 75 yards can certainly help “save” strokes, but for the purpose of scoring better I agree hitting fairways are more important. My lowest rounds this year have all come when ive hit 10+ fairways in a round.
When the driver hasn’t worked for me, I’ve “scored” better when I put the driver away and hit a 2 iron in the fairway much more consistently.
tom
May 21, 2019 at 7:54 pm
Your best round may come from when you hit the most fairways of course, what you don’t understand though is that these bombers are only hitting 1 or maybe 2 less fairways but are 40 yards ahead of you every time when they in the fairway. Sure they may make bogey on that 1 extra hole they miss the fairway on, but they are going to make a hell of a lot more birdies from 40 yards up when they are in the fairway.
A second point is also that when you are 40 yards ahead (in the fairway or the rough it applies to both), you are reducing your chance of making a bogey by a significant amount when comparing it to being further back, so its a double winner.